Verizon 200 Preview: New Road Course

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series visits the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit for the first time.  This track is a 14-turn, 2.534-mile long road course that is built into the historic oval at Indianapolis.  The event is 82 laps, divided into three stages of 15 laps, 20 laps and 47 laps. Top speeds are somewhat higher than typical road circuits due to the incorporation of the front straight of the oval into the layout and the 14 turns are less than the typical road course. 

The circuit is somewhat reminiscent of the pace and tempo of the Circuit of the Americas course, but lacking the elevation changes.  The track is really unlike any other road course that NASCAR races on currently.  Formula 1 used to compete on this course and IndyCar has raced here since the 2014 season.  NASCAR held an Xfinity Series race on the layout July fourth weekend of last year, and that was the event that kicked the door open to the Cup Series scheduling an event at the Indianapolis GP circuit.  The Xfinity race here last season was one of the more entertaining and dramatic races of 2020.

Since this is a completely new race, at a completely new course, we have no historical loop stats to examine this weekend.  That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage.  However, we're not completely without some numbers.  For much of our analysis this week, we're going to rely on the statistics that our NASCAR Cup Series drivers have accumulated the past two seasons on the various road circuits of the Cup Series.  It's the only real measure of which drivers tend to thrive on winding circuits.  The data will be over the past two seasons, or seven races, so it will be fresh statistics.  In the table below are the driver's standard stats at Sonoma Raceway, Watkins Glen International, the Daytona Road Course, COTA, Road America and the Charlotte Roval over the past two seasons, sorted by average finish.

This weekend we will witness a little history being made.  For the first time ever, the NASCAR Cup Series will compete on the GP circuit at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  The NASCAR Xfinity Series gave us a tease of what to expect this weekend in the July 2020 race they held here.  There were 13 lead changes among eight different drivers in that 62-lap event.  It would evolve into a major battle between Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric with a handful of other drivers in the mix.  The racing at times looked like hand-to-hand combat in the trenches and was exciting right up to the very end.  The final 5 laps would see a three-way battle for the ages between Briscoe, Cindric and AJ Allmendinger for the win.  Briscoe would pull away from the other two and prevail is this very exciting race.  Will the Cup Series produce another thriller on par with this on Sunday afternoon?  We'll have to see.  The sanctioning body will conduct practice and qualifying this weekend so the drivers will at least get to sharpen their swords before battle.

The 2021 Cup Series schedule has a major emphasis on road course racing.  There are seven events in the calendar this season, up from the typical three we've seen in recent years.  The added road course events will favor a number of drivers who thrive at this style of racing.  As for this inaugural event at the Indy GP circuit, the drivers who have exceptional road racing skills will shine, and those who don't will struggle.  We believe the statistical table above will be our greatest aide in evaluating drivers this weekend and projecting potential performance.  We'll give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Verizon 200 at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Chase Elliott – The most dominant road course racer of the last two seasons ran into some trouble at Watkins Glen last Sunday.  Elliott would have to start from the rear of the field due to multiple pre-race inspection failures.  That handicap didn't serve him well in pursuit of the win.  Still, Elliott would peddle to a strong runner-up finish at the Glen.  His two season-tally on these style circuits is four victories, two runner-up finishes and six Top-5 finishes in the seven road racing events of the last two years.  The Hendrick Motorsports star has led 147-combined laps in those races, by far the most of the drivers in the Cup Series.  Sunday will be his first competitive laps on the Indy GP circuit, but that's of little concern.  Elliott did the same at COTA earlier this season and peddled the No. 9 Chevrolet to the win. 

Kyle Larson – The 2021 season has been a coming of age season for Larson.  He's a complete driver now and a major threat to race anywhere the Cup Series competes.  No better illustration of this than his dramatic improvement in road course racing.  Larson is fresh off the big win at Watkins Glen last weekend and he's now won two road racing victories as well as one runner-up finish on the road circuits during this campaign.  His 88 laps led on these style tracks are second only to Elliott. It would not be a surprise at all to see the No. 5 Chevrolet team roll into Indianapolis this weekend and keep their big wave of momentum going after the victory at the Glen.  Do not underestimate this driver and team in Sunday's Verizon 200.     

Kyle Busch – Beyond Elliott and Larson, Busch is like the best of the rest in a sense.  While his probabilities of winning at the Indianapolis Grand Prix Circuit are low, he really is the best positioned driver to upset our dynamic road course duo.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star rides a three-race road course Top-5 streak into this weekend's action after Busch's strong fourth-place at Watkins Glen last Sunday.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota also has a four-race road course Top-10 streak in tow coming to the Brickyard weekend.  If there's a driver in the field capable of leading laps, winning stage victories and upsetting the top contenders, it's Busch and his No. 18 Toyota.  He's been razor sharp this season on the winding circuits.    

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex appears to have righted the ship after some inconsistency earlier in the season on the road course tracks.  Truex has nabbed third-, ninth- and third-place finishes in his last three starts on these style circuits.  His performance this past weekend at Watkins Glen was particularly eye-opening.  Truex led a race-high 34 laps and captured the stage 2 victory in the Go Bowling at the Glen.  However, a faster pit stop late in stage 3 would put Larson out ahead of Truex and foil the driver of the No. 19 Toyota from winning in New York last Sunday.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star still finished a brilliant third-place at the Glen and showed he is still quite dangerous in this form of NASCAR racing.  He makes a great stealth fantasy racing play among the upper tier drivers at Indianapolis.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Joey Logano – Despite leading 11 laps and winning stage 1 at the Glen last Sunday, Logano would run into problems and finish a distant 22nd-place.  The Penske Racing star will shake that off this weekend at the Brickyard and should rebound nicely.  As we examine his last two seasons of road course racing we see that the heartbreak of the Glen last weekend really is the outlier.  Logano's four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in seven starts on the road circuits rounds out nicely to an 8.1 average finish.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford's COTA performance of earlier this season is likely a good indicator to look to for the Indy GP circuit.  Logano led 14 laps that afternoon in the rain and collected a brilliant third-place finish at the COTA circuit.     

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin hasn't been able to wrestle a road course win from the dynamic duo the last couple seasons, but he's been an incredibly consistent performer and finisher on these style tracks.  The Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit offers another opportunity for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota to impress.  Hamlin has four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last seven road course events dating back to the 2020 season.  He's led a combined 29 laps in those races and tallied a 7.4 average finish across the span.  Hamlin rides a three-race road course Top-10 streak into Sunday's action which includes his strong fifth-place finish at Watkins Glen this past week.  NASCAR's staging of practice and qualifying this weekend should be an added edge for Hamlin to prepare for this new circuit.

AJ Allmendinger – The Xfinity Series regular and road racing expert will make a Cup Series start for Kaulig Racing this weekend.  Allmendinger has three starts this season on these style tracks with one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in those efforts.  In the Xfinity Series race last year at the Brickyard, Allmendinger was one of three drivers vying for the win in the closing laps.  Were it not for a slight miscalculation in those final, crucial laps he may very well have won that event.  He finished fourth in that race and has the very valuable experience that most of the rest of the Cup Series drivers does not have on this track.  Do not underestimate Allmendinger's potential in this first-ever Cup race at the Indy GP circuit.  He has homerun potential that should be clearly understood.    

Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has shown his skill on the road course circuit the last two seasons.  Busch has nabbed three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in those seven events for a sturdy 10.3 average finish.  While he was just a tick off his game last weekend at Watkins Glen (13th-place) he was still quite respectable and relevant among the top drivers.  Busch should rebound nicely at the Indy GP circuit.  He has 12 laps led this season in this style of racing, so the veteran driver has not just been riding in line.  He's been racing near the front and among the leaders.  Busch and the No. 1 Chevrolet team make a pretty dependable fantasy racing play in the middle tier of drivers in most games.  

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

William Byron – Byron may have very well redeemed himself with his strong sixth-place finish at Watkins Glen this past Sunday.  To that point the young driver had not been getting the finishes worthy of his race cars on these style tracks.  The Top 10 at the Glen was his first Top-10 finish of the season on the winding circuits.  In our article last weekend, we identified patience as something Byron needed to work on in this style of racing, and he seemed to respond at the Glen.  The road course at the Brickyard will be a new challenge for the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet, but his experience this past weekend in New York should help.  With the playoffs fast approaching we believe Byron will race with a good balance of patience and urgency in Sunday's Verizon 200.

Christopher Bell – It came as no surprise to us to see Bell cruise across the finish line seventh-place at Watkins Glen last Sunday.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster now has one win, one runner-up and three Top-10 finishes this season on the winding tracks.  It's a good thing the driver of the No. 20 Toyota is on a hot streak right now, as we will continue road racing this Sunday at the Brickyard.  Despite the newness and unfamiliarity of this track, Bell should quickly adapt.  The practice laps will be invaluable this weekend for the highly-skilled road course prodigy.  We don't foresee Bell upsetting the higher ranked drivers at Indianapolis, but he should have little trouble turning in another workmanlike Top 10 in this inaugural Cup race at the Indy GP circuit.    

Kevin Harvick – Coming off the eighth-place Watkins Glen finish, we're hopeful for Harvick and the No. 4 Ford team this weekend.  Road course racing has been a bit of an uneven affair for the Stewart Haas Racing star, but he's managed to collect two Top-10 finishes in 2021 on these style tracks.  Harvick has a ton of familiarity with the oval at the Brickyard as his 20-career starts and three victories will attest.  We believe that portion of the course that incorporates the oval will help Harvick to quickly adapt with practice and qualifying laps this weekend.  With the playoffs fast approaching we expect Harvick to pick up the pace.  He's still winless for the season and in need of great finishes heading into the playoff format. 

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is a driver with a lot on the line this weekend in Indianapolis.  His playoff life is hanging in the balance and his back is to the wall with zero margin for error.  With the playoffs fast approaching the young Richard Childress Racing driver is racing with a lot of purpose.  The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet has been racing well of late and particularly on the road course circuits.  Reddick has finishes of eighth- and 10th-place the last two times out at Road America and Watkins Glen, and he has three road course Top 10's for the season.  Certainly the Indy GP circuit will present many challenges, but we believe Reddick will be up to the test. 

Chase Briscoe – In his first full season of Cup Series racing, Briscoe has proven his worth on the road racing circuits.  The Stewart Haas Racing youngster is fresh off a respectable ninth-place finish at Watkins Glen and now has three Top 10's in 2021 on these style courses.  Road racing has easily been Briscoe's best racing facilities of his rookie campaign.  The strong 14.0 average finish across the five events easily bears this out.  Briscoe led 30 laps in a dominant Xfinity Series performance on this course last season en route to the big and dramatic win.  There were several strong suitors for victory lane that day, but this young driver rose above them all.  The driver of the No. 14 Ford is a driver to watch closely in Sunday's inaugural event at the Indy GP circuit. 

Austin Cindric – The lottery ticket driver in the lower fantasy racing tiers this week is easily Cindric.  He will be making his last Cup Series spot-start of the season in the Penske Racing No. 33 Ford this Sunday.  Cindric raced in the Xfinity Series event at Indianapolis last season and very nearly won that event.  He led 21 laps that afternoon but was overtaken late and finished fifth-place for a brilliant performance.  That experience will be tremendously valuable heading into this first Cup event at the Indy GP circuit.  Road racing has always been this young driver's best craft and his four victories and 6.8 average finish across 18 Xfinity Series road racing starts validates this fact.  Cindric has a lot of lower tier upside for Sunday's Verizon 200. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week    

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star is coming off a poor finish at Watkins Glen.  Despite starting on the pole and leading 9 laps he would run into trouble and finish a distant 35th-place.  That has caused us to rethink Keselowski's status on the road circuits entirely.  He now has just one Top-10 finish in his last two seasons of racing on these style circuits, and the average finish of 16.9 is higher than we'd like for a driver the caliber of Keselowski.  The Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit will present a lot of challenges for drivers who have not raced here.  Keselowski is clearly struggling with this aspect of his game right now, and makes a risky start for fantasy racing games of all types. 

Bubba Wallace – With the playoffs fast approaching, Wallace is in an unenviable position on the outside looking in at the playoff field.  With so much road course racing in 2021, it's not terribly surprising.  This form of racing is not his cup of tea.  With an average finish of 26.2 for his career on these style tracks, the winding circuits are four-to-five positions worse than his best tracks (short tracks and larger speedways).  Wallace's labor this past Sunday at the Glen resulted in a 23rd-place finish in the Go Bowling at the Glen.  That's pretty much been the mark for the season as he rides a 24.6 average finish over the past two seasons on road circuits into Sunday's action.  The 23XI Racing driver has never made a lap on the Indy GP circuit, and the learning curve will be steep this Sunday.

Aric Almirola –  It's been an underperform season for Almirola and the No. 10 Ford team.  Despite a surprising victory at Loudon a couple races ago, his three Top-10 finishes to this point in the season are vastly underwhelming.  Road course racing has been part of the malaise for the veteran driver.  Almirola has just one Top-15 finish over the last two seasons in this style of racing.  The 20.0 average finish across the span leaves lots to be desired.  The Indianapolis Motor Speedway Grand Prix circuit will present a lot of challenges to this driver and team this weekend.  Fresh off a somewhat decent 16th-place finish at Watkins Glen last week would seem to indicate some hope, but we're not so optimistic on a new Cup Series track. 

Ryan Newman – Newman never has been a road racing ace, but the last two seasons he's looked completely lost as a veteran driver on these circuits.  With just two Top-20 finishes in his last seven starts, Newman sits at an inflated 26.3 average finish coming into Sunday's Verizon 200.  The Roush Fenway Racing driver has had a few achievements racing on the oval at the Brickyard, including his big win that came a while back in 2013.  Still, that will not be of much help to a driver who's clearly struggling with the left/right turns.  Newman is a driver to pan in weekly lineup and salary cap based leagues.  He's brings little-to-no value to the table in this style of racing.