Toyota/Save Mart 350 Preview: Returning to California

We leave the ovals behind yet again this week and head to the twisting turns as the NASCAR Cup Series will make its third stop of the season on a road course. Sonoma Raceway in California plays host to the Toyota/Save Mart 350 this Sunday afternoon.  

Sonoma Raceway is a 2.52-mile, 12-turn road course with many elevation changes and several types of corners.  The long, relatively straight runs are abruptly ended by many sharp corners, so horsepower and brakes are very important.  One lap around Sonoma incurs a total of 160 feet in elevation change, so this course is very hard on the driver and equipment.  The 180-degree carrousel turn before the start/finish line provides many passing opportunities to those drivers who can drive in deep and out-brake their opponents.  Other than the carrousel turn, the drivers have to be on their toes for any opportunity to make a pass.  These characteristics make it a tough course for the oval track drivers, because they will struggle to find passing opportunities. 

This will be NASCAR's first visit to the state of California since the pandemic began.  The last time NASCAR raced in the state was in March 2020 for the Auto Club 400 at Fontana.  The sanctioning body completely skipped the Sonoma date due to the health crisis, so this event will be our first time racing at Sonoma Raceway since June of 2019.  The learning curve will be steep and the readjustment may take some time.  Fortunately for the drivers of NASCAR's top division, we're just two weeks removed from Circuit of the Americas, so the road racing legs have been stretched very recently.  The COTA race was done completely in the rain, so the conditions were less than ideal.  Most likely this weekend the weather will be much more cooperative in the wine and cheese country of California.   

Since this is the third of seven road course events in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule in 2021, we'll have some recent data to examine but we'll also need to cast an eye towards historical trends at this particular facility.  The current hot streaks entering this race will play a very small part, but really this style of track requires a lot of historical data review for making our driver lists.  There are certain drivers, really good ones, who hate road course racing and it will show up on the track this Sunday.  The drivers who have performed well at Sonoma in recent years have a definite advantage in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.  The loop stats shown below cover the last 16 years or 15 races at Sonoma Raceway.

The Sonoma road course has always played well to veteran drivers.  Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart dominated here for years.  With the retirement of those stars, other veteran drivers have been locked in a battle for supremacy of this California road course.  The preceding three races at Sonoma have seen Martin Truex Jr. (16 seasons), Kevin Harvick (21 seasons), Kyle Busch (17 seasons) and Denny Hamlin (15 seasons) either win or dominate large portions of those three events.  So it's not likely that one of the young stars will take the checkers this Sunday, but much more likely a driver of 10+ years' experience.  Drivers like Alex Bowman, Kyle Larson, William Byron and Chase Elliott are the next generation of rising stars in the sport, and it will be their task to upset the veterans at Sonoma this week.  Of those, Elliott is the most likely candidate to break the Sonoma veteran driver trend.  However, this is one Cup Series road circuit where Elliott is yet to win.  We'll take a look at the stats, Sonoma's history and the road course experts in order to give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing league this weekend.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The three-time Sonoma winner comes back to the scene of his dominant back-to-back victories of 2018-19.  Truex rides into California a strong sixth-place in the championship standings after his good start to the season.  The veteran driver has a great road racing resume.  Truex has a pair of victories and 121-combined laps led in his last two starts at the California road course.  Times have been a bit leaner on the road courses the past couple seasons.  Still, Truex has managed to claim a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last four outings on these winding circuits.  Of all the road courses NASCAR competes on, Sonoma is by far his favorite.  We expect the Joe Gibbs Racing star to elevate his game in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.        

Chase Elliott – Among all the experienced veteran drivers, youngster Elliott will be making just his fifth-career Sonoma start this Sunday afternoon.  He one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in those four prior starts.  This is one NASCAR road course that has yet to yield a victory to the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet.  Elliott's road circuit exploits are pretty well documented.  He has six total victories in 14 starts so far at a robust 43-percent win rate.  No other driver in NASCAR has that high of a win rate on the winding circuits.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver is coming off a road-course win two weeks ago at COTA and despite his lack of accomplishments at Sonoma so far, Elliott is a great contender play this week for the Toyota/Save Mart 350.     

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at Sonoma Raceway.  Coming off the Top-10 finish at Circuit of the Americas recently, which included 12 laps led and a stage victory, we're very optimistic about Busch's upside this weekend.  His recent outings at this California track have been pretty spot on.  Busch won the 2015 installment of this event, and he has piled up four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes at Sonoma since that victory.  The No. 18 JGR team has been an uneven performer on the other road courses of NASCAR, but there's something different about Sonoma Raceway.  Busch really loves this facility as evidenced by his runner-up finish in his last start here in 2019.  If the right things click in terms of race flow and pit strategy, Busch could walk away this Sunday as a three-time Sonoma winner. 

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has been a career-long performer at Sonoma Raceway, but it's his most recent starts where he's really elevated his game at this facility.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford rides a five-race Sonoma Top-6 streak into this weekend's action, and it was topped off with his first-career victory at this road course in 2017.  He led 24 laps and held teammate, Clint Bowyer, at bay to capture that win.  For an encore, Harvick led a career-best 35 laps and finished runner-up at Sonoma Raceway in 2018.  He finished sixth-place here in his last start in 2019, so Sonoma continues to be Harvick's best road course in the schedule year-after-year.  They should continue to challenge for wins and rack up the Top 5's at Sonoma for the foreseeable future.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has been looking to get back into the groove he enjoyed earlier this season.  Three Top 10's in the last four races are a hopeful sign.  Sonoma Raceway hasn't been Hamlin's best track over the years, but things started turning more positive there four seasons ago.  The veteran driver led a career-best 33 laps and finished runner-up to Tony Stewart in a brilliant performance in 2016.  That was the beginning of his current four-race Top-10 streak at the California road course.  That success has translated to other circuits on the Cup Series tour.  Hamlin has two Top-5 and four Top-15 finishes in his last four road course starts for a stellar average finish of 8.5.  That ranks the driver of the No. 11 Toyota as one of the more consistent performers in NASCAR's top division on these challenging road courses.  

Joey Logano – Logano has really upped his game on the road courses the last two seasons.  He has two runner-up finishes, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last four road course starts between Daytona, Charlotte and COTA.  Most recently his 14 laps led, stage win and third-place finish at COTA stand out.  Logano has just four Top-10 finishes in 11-career starts at Sonoma Raceway, so he's had some consistency issues here in the past.  However, this is a different driver coming to California this week.  The driver of the No. 22 Ford has been razor sharp on these style tracks of late and we're sure he can't wait to take another crack at Sonoma Raceway.  Of the drivers in the solid plays list, Logano has the best shot at upsetting the contenders this week in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Kyle Larson – Coming off his second victory of the season on the Charlotte oval last week, we have to carry some road racing respect for the No. 5 Chevrolet team into Sonoma.  We don't typically think of the Hendrick Motorsports star on the road circuits, but he really impressed us on the wet track at COTA a couple weeks ago.  Larson peddled the No. 5 Chevy to a strong runner-up finish in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix.  As far as the Sonoma course goes, Larson was making some major improvement in his performances there up until 2019.  He earned the last three-straight pole positions at Sonoma and capped it off with his first-career Top-10 at the track in his last start at the facility.  We believe Larson will pick up where he left off at Sonoma Raceway two seasons ago and up the ante quite a bit. 

Alex Bowman – The Hendrick Motorsports driver has been sharpening his skills on the road circuits the last two seasons.  Bowman has three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts at these facilities.  That has elevated his career Top-10 rate on the road circuits to a respectable 43-percent.  In his most recent action, Bowman raced through the rain and poor visibility at COTA to a strong eighth-place finish in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has four-prior Cup Series starts at Sonoma, so Bowman is not unfamiliar with this track.  He earned ninth- and 14th-place finishes in his last two Sonoma efforts, but the last came in 2019.  Bowman has elevated his game on these style tracks considerably since that last outing.  We're predicting a career-best Sonoma finish for Bowman this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Sonoma & solid upside

William Byron – The young driver really has come a long way on the road courses the last two seasons.  Byron has earned three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in his last five road circuit events.  Last time out at COTA the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet earned a steady 11th-place finish in the rain.  Byron has just two-career Cup Series starts at Sonoma Raceway, and they've been nothing spectacular to this point.  However, this is a much different driver than the one that last visited Sonoma in 2019.  Byron has grown tremendously since then and has learned how to navigate these very technical circuits.  We expect the Hendrick Motorsports youngster to crack the Top 10 in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster will be making his fifth-career start at Sonoma Raceway this Sunday afternoon.  That gives Blaney a little more seat time and experience here than some of the other younger drivers.  His debut at the course came back in 2016 and was a subpar 23rd-place finish, but he returned in 2017 and peddled to a surprising ninth-place finish in that season's Toyota/Save Mart 350.  Blaney has just continued to get better on these style tracks with each start.  His last Sonoma start yielded a brilliant third-place finish and career-best effort at Sonoma Raceway.  Blaney hasn't been terribly consistent on the road courses in 2021, but Sonoma could be the race to really get him rolling. 

Michael McDowell – The Front Row Motorsports veteran has always been a capable hand on the road courses, but McDowell has really elevated his game in 2021.  The driver of the No. 34 Ford has earned eighth- and seventh-place finishes in the Daytona and COTA events this season.  McDowell has been quite impressive.  He's very familiar with the track at Sonoma having made eight-career Cup Series starts at the facility.  To this point he has just one Top-15 finish in those efforts, but things will be different this time.  McDowell is racing with a lot of confidence this season.  He comes to Sonoma with a career-best five Top 10's in tow and a career-best 16th-place in the driver point standings.  He'll be dangerous in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Tyler Reddick – The young Richard Childress Racing driver showed some real brilliance in his last road course outing.  Reddick earned the pole position in a rare Cup Series qualifying session at COTA.  He would go on to finish a strong ninth-place on the rain-soaked circuit in Austin, Texas.  That adds to his improving road racing resume.  Reddick will look to continue that improvement in his Cup Series debut at Sonoma Raceway.  While he has no stats at this track to refer to, he does have a strong Xfinity Series resume racing on the road courses.  With four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in nine starts in that division of NASCAR, it's clear that Reddick possesses the gift of navigating these winding circuits.

Erik Jones – On a weekend primarily for veteran drivers, Jones is a standout among the young faces in the series.  His last four road course starts have yielded one Top-5 and three Top-15 finishes, including a respectable 16th-place finish in the downpour at COTA two weeks ago.  Jones has three valuable Cup Series starts of experience at Sonoma Raceway.  The results to this point have been very impressive.  His seventh- and eighth-place finishes in the last two starts have his career average standing at a respectable 13.3 entering this weekend.  Granted this will be his first start at the track with Richard Petty Motorsports this Sunday, we believe he has the knowledge and skill to navigate this track to success.  A Top-15 finish in NASCAR's return to Sonoma seems very likely.   

Kurt Busch – Busch has the history here that screams road course start, but the current struggles that throw all kinds of flags of caution.  So we've put him deep in the sleeper category this week.  Assuming Busch can shake his recent bad luck, he can turn in a great performance this Sunday.  The veteran driver is an excellent road course racer and his Sonoma stats back that up.  Busch won this event in 2011 and he's led 198-career circuits at the 12-turn California race track.  His 10-career Top-10 finishes work out to an impressive 53-percent Top-10 rate at Sonoma Raceway.  Busch has four Top 10's in his last five Sonoma starts coming to California this week.  If he can turn his luck around he could be a real threat to crack the Top 10 in Sunday's Toyota/Save Mart 350. 

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Bubba Wallace – The 23XI Racing driver has two-career starts at Sonoma.  So experience is there, but the results are thin.  The subpar finishes of 29th- and 26th-place in those two starts is what's most concerning.  Recent road course outings the last two seasons have yielded a similar 27.8 average finish, and that includes his dramatic crash and DNF in the rain at COTA two weeks ago.  Wallace was raised racing on short track ovals, and the road courses are still something outside his comfort zone to this point in his Cup Series career.  The results have yet to come, so it's not likely that he'll reverse those trends in his first start at Sonoma in two years.   

Brad Keselowski – Among the top tier drivers to avoid this week we offer Keselowski for consideration.  He's pulled out one Top-5 finish in the last four road course events of 2020 and 2021, but he's otherwise been a middle-to-upper teens finisher in most of those events.  His stats at Sonoma Raceway are similarly aligned.  With just two Top-10 finishes in 10-career starts he's batting 20-percent for a Top-10 rate at this facility.  The 16.8 average finish while a bit inflated, is higher than most of the A tier drivers at this track.  For a prime example we offer his last start at the facility in 2019.  Keselowski labored to a distant 18th-place finish that summer afternoon in California.  Given his recent performance on these style circuits, we're likely in store for a similar performance Sunday in the Toyota/Save Mart 350.

Ryan Newman – Newman has a really strong Sonoma Raceway resume, so it's a bit eye-catching to put the driver of the No. 6 Ford in the slow down list this week.  His 44-percent career Top-10 rate at this track and respectable 12.8 average finish would seem to endorse a fantasy racing start.  However, his recent work on road courses have been quite a struggle to say the least.  Finishes of 19th-, 31st-, 20th- and 24th-place dating back to last season show the struggles of Newman on these style circuits.  Even though he has far more experience and far more success on the Sonoma track, it's a bit concerning to pin your expectations on Newman this weekend.  We believe there are better driver choices among the field.   

Aric Almirola – The long, tough 2021 season continued for Almirola at Charlotte last week.  Nothing seems to be going right for this driver and team this season.  Almirola toiled to a distant 22nd-place finish in last weekend's Coca-Cola 600, which is a track where he's had recent success.  Now we return to road course racing, which has easily been his biggest challenge.  His most recent 26th-place finish at COTA has brought his two-season average finish on these style tracks to an inflated 20.8.  Almirola has just a 25-percent career Top-10 rate at Sonoma Raceway.  We believe this veteran driver will be in for another long haul Sunday at the California road course.