Ticket Guardian 500 Preview: Conquering the Desert Jewel

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for ISM Raceway. This style of racing is a big departure from the intermediate ovals and Daytona that we've spent the first three weeks of the season competing on. At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical numbers with some emphasis. The recent loop statistics at ISM will be the most important data we will examine this week. The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 13 years or 26 races at ISM Raceway.

After consecutive weeks of racing on cookie-cutter ovals, we turn to a track of a completely different configuration. This oval is anything but a "cookie cutter." This week NASCAR's top racing series stops at one of the more unique tracks on the circuit, ISM Raceway. The track at Avondale, Ariz., is an irregular "D-shaped" oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees. The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. This oval is completely different than Daytona, Atlanta and Las Vegas. Phoenix boasts the high speeds that borders on intermediate ovals with the close confines of short track racing as well. As we have witnessed in the last several years, Kevin Harvick has turned this venue into his "house" and he's completely dominated the field the last few seasons at this oval. Coming off two-straight victories, this weekend's race would seem to set up very well for the Stewart Haas Racing star. Harvick has never won three-straight races, so there will be some major drama at the Desert Jewel this Sunday afternoon.

Since we are making our first stop of the season in the Arizona desert this week, we can only really look back on past statistics for ISM Raceway. This style of racing is a big departure from the intermediate ovals and Daytona that we've spent the first three weeks of the season competing on. At this point we're tracking trends, but the change of racing style this week demands that we visit the historical numbers with some emphasis. The recent loop statistics at ISM will be the most important data we will examine this week. The historical trends at the Phoenix oval are as important as anywhere in the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 13 years or 26 races at ISM Raceway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick - ISM Raceway is one of Harvick's top statistical ovals. He's an eight-time winner at the facility, including five of the last nine events at ISM. He leads all drivers in the series in laps led at this oval during the last 13 seasons, so clearly Harvick possesses a gift at this one-mile short track. The veteran driver's No. 4 team at Stewart Haas Racing has gotten off to torrid start this season with two-straight victories at Atlanta and Las Vegas. We'll see if that hot streak continues in Phoenix. Harvick has never won three races in a row, but he's faced with probably his best opportunity to check that box this Sunday. The driver of the No. 4 Ford hasn't won at ISM in his last three visits, but he's generally been a Top 5 driver in those events. The smart money is on Harvick in the Ticket Guardian 500.

Joey Logano - The driver of the No. 22 Ford has maintained a strong resume at the one-mile Arizona oval since moving from Gibbs to Penske many seasons ago, and it's only getting better with time. Logano has nine Top-10 finishes in 18 starts at the Desert Jewel, and he grabbed his first victory at the track in 2016. He's now led close to 300 laps at Phoenix, with most of those coming since 2013. In this event one year ago Logano won the pole position and led 82 laps before becoming involved in a crash. He had a car to win that day one year ago, and you can bet Logano hasn't forgotten it. The Penske Racing star's good start to the season is much of the reason for our optimism this weekend. Logano should have the speed to compete.

Chase Elliott - It's been a tough start to the season for Elliott, but it turned much more positive with his Top-10 finish at Atlanta. He was well on his way to a Top 10 last week at Las Vegas, but was an unwilling participant in Kurt Busch's problems. The Hendrick Motorsports driver will hit the reset button in a big way this week at ISM Raceway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet should get a boost in value this week as we're racing on a smaller oval for the first time this season. The last time we saw Elliott in action at Phoenix, he nearly won last November, but finished runner-up to Matt Kenseth. That was one of three Top 10s that he owns at this facility in four starts. The miniscule 7.8 average finish is a good measure of his skills at this oval. If there's an upset bolt from the blue this Sunday, it's likely to be the No. 9 Chevrolet.

Kyle Larson - The short track "boost" will be well received by the No. 42 Chip Ganassi Racing team. To this point in the season, they've treaded water with the faster Fords, but this race will give Larson a shot at the checkers. Two of his last three visits to ISM Raceway have resulted in Top-3 finishes, including this event one year ago. Larson couldn't track down Ryan Newman, but he'd still collect a brilliant runner-up finish in Phoenix. His career numbers at this facility aren't very impressive, but over the last two seasons he's really come on here. We believe those are the numbers to focus on. Whatever hindered Larson at this one-mile oval earlier in his career, has clearly been broken through.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kyle Busch - The Joe Gibbs Racing star is looking to build on the Top-10 finishes he's achieved at Atlanta and Las Vegas. Busch soldiered through to a strong runner-up finish in Vegas, and that underscores his value coming to Phoenix. While Busch has only one-career victory at this oval, it by no means diminishes his value here. Were it not for Harvick's dominance in recent seasons, Busch would likely have more Phoenix trophies in his trophy case. With 17-career Top-10 finishes in 25 starts, he checks in at a dazzling 68-percent rate. Busch rides a five-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into Arizona this week. If Harvick stumbles this weekend, it could be the driver of the No. 18 Toyota who capitalizes.

Brad Keselowski - The veteran driver rides a two-race Top-10 streak into Arizona this week. Keselowski will be making his 18th-career start at this flat Arizona oval this weekend. While his career numbers are lacking a win, Keselowski's recent stats at this oval have been gradually improving. That leads us to be very optimistic that the driver of the No. 2 Ford will be dialed-in for the Ticket Guardian 500. Five of his last eight trips to ISM Raceway have yielded Top-10 finishes. That has elevated Keselowski's career Top-10 rate at this one-mile oval to 47-percent. The Penske Racing star has always been a top performer on the series' smaller ovals. He should show that skill in Sunday's 500k battle.

Ryan Blaney - The early season tale of the tape has Ford drivers sitting atop the speed. Blaney has burst out of the gates as a member of the Penske Racing camp. His No. 12 Ford team looks like anything but new. He won the pole position at Las Vegas this past week, and he has a pair of Top 10s in the first three races. Now we'll see if that speed translates to the one-mile ISM Raceway. Blaney has four-career starts here, and two of those efforts have yielded Top-10 finishes. Last November he won the pole position at Phoenix in his last start at the oval, and led 11 laps, but didn't get the finish he deserved. Blaney will look at Sunday's race as unfinished business for his No. 12 Ford team.

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex hasn't exactly started the season in race-winning form. That's had more to do with Harvick's dominance and less to do with the No. 78 Toyota team. He's still had the speed to nab two Top-5 finishes in the first three races of 2018. ISM Raceway hasn't been an oval of dominance for Truex, thus the solid plays list placement this week. He has eight-career Top-10 finishes at this facility, but most have come in recent seasons. Truex's last start at the one-mile Arizona oval netted a Phoenix career-best finish of third. This is much of the reason for our optimism for the Furniture Row Racing star this weekend. Make no mistake about it, Truex is not the driver to beat this weekend, but he'll easily be a face inside the Top-10 and maybe the Top-5.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Phoenix who can provide a solid finish

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin has been one of the best short track drivers in the series the last several seasons. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has one victory at Phoenix, which came in 2012. Hamlin cracks the Top 5 in 40-percent of his starts at ISM. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 600 laps for his career at Phoenix, and he's usually no worse than a Top-10 finisher. Hamlin has had a good start to the season with a pair of Top-5 finishes in the first three races. He comes to ISM Raceway looking to continue building on that momentum as we head into the short track portion of the spring schedule. He should crack the Top 10 in Sunday's Ticket Guardian 500.

Kurt Busch - Busch has been one of the more consistent finishers in the Monster Energy Cup Series at the Phoenix oval over the years. He has five Top-10 finishes in his last seven starts at the facility coming into this weekend's race. The Stewart Haas Racing star is a one-time winner at ISM, and he cracks the Top 10 at a strong 57-percent rate. That percentage has actually been elevated the past few seasons as Busch has been visiting the Top 10 here better than his career rate. Busch is looking to rebound from his poor Las Vegas performance and he's visiting one of his better ovals this weekend. Busch is a rock-solid fantasy start at the one-mile Arizona oval this week.

Aric Almirola - This veteran driver has found a new lease on his NASCAR career with the move to the Stewart Haas Racing No. 10 team. Almirola has started the season with 11th-, 13th- and 10th-place in the first three events. Now he'll ride that momentum into ISM Raceway this weekend. Almirola has just two-career Top-10 finishes at this small oval, but the really good news is that they've both come in his last five starts. He finished ninth here last November with his old race team, the No. 43 of Richard Petty Motorsports. We're very optimistic that this good trend line will continue with his new team at SHR. A Top-15 finish in Sunday's Ticket Guardian 500 is nearly a guarantee.

Erik Jones - The Joe Gibbs Racing rising star has shown good speed the last two races. They've netted 11th- and eighth-place finishes at Atlanta and Las Vegas. Jones was nearly a fixture inside the Top 10 for most of the race at Vegas this past week. The young driver is finding his stride and momentum with his new No. 20 Toyota team. Jones has three-career starts at ISM Raceway, and he's only gotten better with each start. The finishes have been 19th-, eighth- and fourth-place. The fourth-place effort came in his last start at the oval last November. You have to like the track-specific performance and the current level of performance of this driver entering this first short track event of 2018.

Jamie McMurray - The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet struggled for years at the flat oval outside of Phoenix, but McMurray has come on strong later in his career and begun posting good finishes at this facility. He failed to crack the Top 10 in his first 10 visits to ISM, but has rallied to crack the Top 10 twice in his last six visits. When McMurray isn't finishing in the Top 10, he's not far outside it. He's generally coming home in the middle-teens to 20th since the 2013 season. In McMurray's last start at ISM he qualified 13th and finished sixth-place in last November's Can-AM 500. Chip Ganassi Racing has a strong program right now and this veteran driver is looking for a good finish this weekend. McMurray should keep his Phoenix roll going this Sunday afternoon at the Desert Jewel.

Ryan Newman - Rocket Man won this race one year ago in a surprise upset. While we don't expect to see him back in victory lane this weekend, it's still a statement about his excellence at this facility. Newman has two-career victories and 12 Top-10 finishes in 31 starts at ISM Raceway. He also has countless Top-15 finishes, helping to hold his career average to a respectable 17.2. Those stats place Newman steadily with the second-tier of drivers at this facility. The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver finished eighth in the season-opening Daytona 500 and 11th-place this past week at Las Vegas. It's clear that the No. 31 team has good speed right now, despite the challenges of adapting to the new Camaro. The short track race will also be an additional field leveler for this driver and team at Phoenix.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson - The Hendrick Motorsports star has incredible stats at the Phoenix oval. Johnson is a four-time winner at ISM and that is second only to Kevin Harvick among the Monster Energy Cup Series. However, his stats at this facility have been trailing off in recent visits. Johnson has only two Top 10s in his last six visits to ISM Raceway. His last start was a crash and DNF's in last November's race. It's no secret that the No. 48 team has labored mightily to start this season. Last week Johnson's car chief was suspended after the team's Chevrolet failed technical inspection three times during pre-race. Johnson still rallied from laps down to crack the Top 15 at Las Vegas. It was a moral victory, but a hollow performance from a fantasy racing perspective as Johnson carries an elite driver tag. It's best to stay clear until this driver and team can work through their struggles.

William Byron - The Hendrick Motorsports rookie has stumbled out of the gates to start the season. Finishes of 23rd-, 18th- and 27th-place have been his body of work so far. We're still high on the young driver for the long-haul this season, but it's going to take some time for him to adapt to the Monster Energy Cup Series. This challenging short track will present a whole new set of obstacles for Byron to overcome this weekend. He has made just two-career Xfinity Series starts at this oval, so the experience is limited. Those results were great, but racing here in a Cup car is an entirely different scenario. Byron will be racing with the best short track drivers in the world in Sunday's Ticket Guardian 500, and there will be plenty of lessons learned.

A.J. Allmendinger - Outside of a Top-10 finish in the Daytona 500, the start to this season has been challenging for Allmendinger. Finishes of 29th- and 30th-place the last two weeks has dropped him to 23rd overall in the driver standings coming to ISM Raceway. The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has years of experience racing this oval in NASCAR's various divisions. In the Cup Series alone he has 17 starts at Phoenix. However, only two of those efforts yielded Top-10 finishes. Allmendinger labored to 26th- and 23rd-place finishes at Phoenix last season, so the trend line of late has not been the best. Given the current struggles of this team and adapting to the new Camaro, it's best to stay clear this weekend.

Trevor Bayne - The Roush Fenway Racing driver has been improving the last couple years on short tracks, but Phoenix has seemed to be the exception. Bayne's last six starts at the Arizona oval have resulted in only one Top-20 finish and an average finish of 28.3. His last start here in November resulted in a crash and DNF. It's clearly been an uphill battle for this driver and team at ISM Raceway. We can't see this trend breaking in Sunday's Ticket Guardian 500. Bayne comes to Phoenix 22nd in the driver standings and searching for answers after a subpar start to the season. The veteran driver still presents fantasy racing value on superspeedways, and certain short tracks, but Phoenix is not one of them.