Super Start Batteries 400 Preview: Backtracking to Kansas

We're two months late heading to Kansas, thanks to the Coronavirus disruption of NASCAR.  As the old saying goes "better late than never."  The revamped schedule offers the chance to make up the postponed Kansas race of late May, and for the eighth time in 2020, the NASCAR Cup Series goes intermediate oval racing as we visit Kansas Speedway for what was supposed to be the spring event of this season.  

The Super Start Batteries 400 will take our competitors back to an intermediate oval for the third week in a row.  The 1.5-mile oval of Kansas Speedway may not give us a sequel of what played out at Texas last Sunday, but the action we saw at Kentucky just two weeks ago could be a preview of Kansas Speedway this Thursday night. 

The teams that dominated at Kentucky Speedway are sure to be licking their chops for this visit to America's heartland.  While Kansas offers 17 to 20-degree corner banking compared to 14 to 17-degree corner banking at Kentucky, the similarities are enough to warrant reconsideration of almost the same driver group that we had at the Sparta, Kentucky oval.  Both tracks are the "D" shaped configuration so the handling characteristics will be much the same.  However, as we ran during the daylight hours at Kentucky, we will be racing under the lights this week at Kansas.  That one wrinkle could play a minor role in altering the driver group just a bit.  One thing is for certain, the remarkable parity we've seen so far on these style ovals should continue at Kansas Speedway.  We've had seven different race winners on the 1.5-mile tracks so far, and we've had eight different drivers lead 100 combined laps or more in these events.  Kansas could offer a few more surprises. 

Since we're making our first stop of the season at Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval.  These numbers will be even more important than usual, since it's been since last October since we last competed at this oval.  As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series right now are making a very timely start at Kansas this weekend.  Here are the loop stats for the last 24 races at Kansas Speedway.

Our most recent Kansas winner, Denny Hamlin, will be challenged to defend his turf this Thursday night at the Kansas Speedway oval.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star dominated the Hollywood Casino 400 last October to claim his second-career victory at the oval.  Hamlin used good pit strategy and a strong car late to lead 153 laps in that event, and hold off a hard-charging Chase Elliott to secure the win in the closing laps.  Both Hamlin and Elliott were non-factors in the recent Kentucky race, so it will be interesting to see if both drivers can rebound to contention this Thursday night at the Kansas oval. 

The Penske Racing and Stewart Haas Racing camps will pose the biggest threat to Hamlin's crown this weekend.  Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski and Cole Custer have won four of the six intermediate oval events of 2020.  Harvick, Logano and Keselowski are all past Kansas winners, so that's another big statistic.  Aside from these two super-teams, Martin Truex Jr. should stay on our fantasy racing radar screens at Kansas.  He seems to be the best-positioned Toyota driver to challenge Hamlin at Kansas Speedway.  From the Chevrolet side it's almost entirely up to Chase Elliott as to who will factor in the outcome, with a modest outside shot nod going to Kurt Busch.  We'll highlight the fantasy racing drivers you need this Thursday night to dominate the evening at Kansas Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is our last Kansas Speedway winner with his strong performance at the oval last fall.  That teases the potential for this Sunday just a bit.  We have to give the driver of the No. 11 Toyota some respect for what he's accomplished at Kansas Speedway over the years.  He has two victories, seven Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes in 23 starts.  We'd like to see higher Top-5 and Top-10 rates, but frankly Hamlin is a much improved driver across the board the last two seasons.  The veteran driver's one victory and three Top-5 finishes on 1.5-mile ovals this season are a cornerstone of that statement.  He'll race among the leaders under the lights at Kansas Thursday night.    

Kevin Harvick – The No. 4 Ford team has been one of the most consistent performers of 2020 on the cookie cutter tracks.  Harvick has 357 laps led, one victory and four Top-5 finishes on these style ovals.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has won five poles, three victories and three runner-up finishes dating back to 2013 at Kansas Speedway.  He won from the pole in a dominant performance in this event two years ago.  With well over 850-career laps led at Kansas, this is one of Harvick's more successful intermediate tracks.  His 11 laps led and fourth-place finish at Kentucky two weeks ago are likely the floor for the expectations we can have this weekend.  The veteran driver of the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing Ford will be a top contender to win at Kansas Speedway. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Intermediate ovals have been the strength of this driver for a number of seasons, but this year has been somewhat of an exception.  Truex and his new crew chief are getting traction though and gaining ground very quickly.  His 57 laps led and runner-up finish at Kentucky Speedway two weeks ago are proof of that fact.  Truex swept both victories at Kansas Speedway in 2017, so he's no stranger to victory lane at this facility.  Since the sweep of Kansas that year, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has registered a runner-up finish and three Top-10 finishes at Kansas.  That has been the norm at this facility for the past few seasons for this driver.  Truex's 35-percent Top-5 rate at Kansas is well above average.  This driver and team looks strong coming into this Thursday night race at Kansas. 

Ryan Blaney – The fact that Blaney doesn't have a win yet on the intermediate ovals it pretty shocking.  Considering how well the Penske Racing youngster has performed on these style tracks in 2020, he should already have a couple victories.  This past Sunday at Texas is a prime example.  Blaney led a staggering 150 laps and swept the first two stages only to have a late race caution change the race flow and deny him a shot at the victory.  Still, he has four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in these seven 1.5-mile oval events this season.  Kansas Speedway has yielded three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes to the No. 12 Ford team.  Blaney looks like a strong contender for the Super Start Batteries 400.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Elliott has made big headlines on intermediate ovals this season with a win at Charlotte, and runner-up finishes at Homestead and Charlotte.  The Hendrick Motorsports youngster staged a disappearing act at Kentucky two weeks ago, but Elliott roared back to life this past Sunday at Texas.  His Kansas Speedway stats speak for themselves.  With one victory and four Top-5 finishes (50-percent) in eight starts, this has been a very good track for the No. 9 Chevrolet team.  Elliott's last outing here last October netted a runner-up finish for the talented youngster.  We'll be racing under the lights Thursday night, and that's an added wrinkle, but we believe Elliott is up to the challenge. 

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran will be glad to get back on a cookie cutter oval again this week.  Almirola grabbed his third-straight Top 10 on an intermediate track this past Sunday at Texas.  The driver of the No. 10 SHR Ford has six-career Kansas Speedway Top 10's to his credit, with three of those coming in just his last five starts alone.  Since Kentucky is so similar to Kansas, if we look back a couple weeks ago at the Kentucky race, we saw that Almirola led 128 laps and finished eighth at that facility.  It should be a pretty similar set up for this driver and team.  Almirola and crew chief, Mike Bugarewicz, have these cookie cutter ovals figured out right now.          

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is a two-time Kansas winner and he won this event one year ago.  His 217 laps led and 10-career Top-10 finishes show his expertise at this facility.  Recent outings have been a bit uneven, but he did grab the win in this event last season.  Keselowski has been incredibly consistent this season on these style ovals.  He grabbed a win at Charlotte in May and has seven Top-10 finishes in the seven intermediate oval events to-date.  The No. 2 Penske Racing Ford team are fresh off a steady ninth-place run at Texas Motor Speedway this past Sunday, and that bodes well for the quick turnaround and trip to Kansas Speedway this Thursday night.

Kyle Busch – The 2019 Series Champion gets an upgrade this week after what we witnessed at Texas this past Sunday.  Busch has nine Top 10's in his last 10 Kansas starts, and that includes a victory in this event in 2016.  During this streak the Joe Gibbs Racing star has led well over 200 laps at the heartland oval, and been in the mix to win on more than one occasion.  Busch's start here last October saw the No. 18 Toyota racing in the Top 5 for the full event, and finishing third-place in the Hollywood Casino 400.  This is not one of his better intermediate ovals, but Busch has been dramatically improving here since the 2014 season.  He's pushed his Top-10 rate up to a more respectable 46-percent, thanks to this current Kansas streak that he has in play.  Coming off the strong fourth-place finish at Texas this past Sunday, it feels like the No. 18 JGR team may finally be gathering some momentum.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Kansas & solid upside

Kurt Busch – Busch's performance on intermediate ovals so far this season has been spotless with a pair of Top 5's and five Top 10's in seven starts.  Those races have been instrumental in his good start to the season, currently ninth in the overall point standings.  Busch's career-long Kansas record isn't the best with only a 39-percent Top-10 rate, but he has been coming on strong here since the 2013 season.  The veteran driver has seven Top-10 finishes in his last 10 visits to Kansas Speedway, which is 70-percent and well above his career average.  Busch's start in this event one year ago netted a steady seventh-place finish last May.  A finish between sixth- and ninth-place would be a reasonable expectation for Thursday night's 400-mile battle. 

Austin Dillon – Our surprise Texas winner once again gets sleeper status this week for Kansas Speedway.  The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet was already very consistent on the 1.5-mile ovals this season and his Texas win just further bolsters those numbers.  Dillon now has one win and four Top-10 finishes for an 8.3 average finish across our seven intermediate oval events to-date.  Only Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski have a better average finish on these tracks than Dillon.  His Kansas Speedway stats are pedestrian at best with a lowly 23-percent Top-10 rate and career 17.2 average finish.  However, this is not the "typical" Dillon visiting Kansas Speedway this Thursday night.  He has Top-15 floor with Top-5 potential in the Super Start Batteries 400.      

Tyler Reddick – The great late-race pit strategy that propelled Austin Dillon to the win last Sunday at Fort Worth also propelled Reddick to a brilliant runner-up finish in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  The decision to take no tires and fuel only on the money stop was cash money indeed for the No. 8 Chevy team.  It was the rookie's second Top 5 and fourth Top 10 on intermediate ovals this season.  That performance combined with his 10th-place finish at Kentucky Speedway the prior weekend gives this young driver a major endorsement for Kansas.  Reddick has one-career Cup Series start at this oval, and it was an impressive ninth-place finish in a spot start for RCR in May of last year. 

Erik Jones – Jones snapped a season-long Top-10 slump on the 1.5-mile ovals with his strong sixth-place finish at Texas Motor Speedway this past Sunday.  That puts the young JGR driver squarely back on our fantasy racing radar this week at Kansas Speedway.  Jones has a good recent record at Kansas Speedway.  After a slow start to his Cup Series career at this facility, he's rebounded to string four consecutive Top-10 finishes together.  He rides that four-race Kansas Top-10 streak into Thursday night's action.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota collected a brilliant third-place finish in this event one year ago, and he returned last fall to register a solid seventh-place finish in the Hollywood Casino 400.  This driver is trending in the right direction coming to one of his more successful ovals.    

Matt DiBenedetto – Among the lower tier fantasy racing drivers, DiBenedetto has given a lot of returns this season.  On just the intermediate ovals alone, he's registered a pair of Top-5 finishes and a respectable 13.3 average finish in 2020.  DiBenedetto doesn't often find trouble on these style tracks, and he normally brings his equipment home on the lead lap.  Kansas Speedway has yet to yield a Top-10 finish to the veteran driver in his Cup Series career, but DiBenedetto did post a career-best Kansas finish in his last start last October.  He peddled his former team's No. 95 Toyota to a steady 15th-place finish in the Hollywood Casino 400.  Given how he performed recently at Kentucky Speedway (third-place) we'd view that as the floor for the No. 21 team this Thursday.  DiBenedetto brings Top-5 potential as his high-end for this race at Kansas Speedway.     

Cole Custer – How can we forget our surprise Kentucky Speedway winner?  The answer is we can't forget him at all.  Custer shocked the NASCAR world with his four-wide battle to the checkers and upset win at Kentucky two weeks ago.  The talented rookie was rolled up in a crash at Texas this past Sunday, so he didn't get to follow up that win.  However, we got glimpses of the good speed in the No. 41 Ford at Texas before Custer's crash.  This young driver has been coming on strong since the beginning of July with his Top 5 at Indianapolis and big win at Kentucky.  We look for Custer to rebound at Kansas this week.  It will be his Cup Series debut at the track, but he does four Xfinity Series starts at the oval.  So he's far from unfamiliar with its configuration.  Custer brings top fantasy value deep off the bench in this 400-miler.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – Despite finishing third-place at Fort Worth this past Sunday, we're still very reserved on the No. 22 team's chances at Kansas Speedway.  Logano's Texas performance has been an outlier in a much lower level of performance overall on the intermediate tracks this season.  The Penske Racing star was a subpar 15th-place at the similar oval in Kentucky just two weekends ago.  It's tough to overlook that statistic.  Kansas Speedway has been a mixed bag over the years for Logano.  Despite two-career victories at this track, he only has 38-percent Top-10 rate at the Kansas oval.  Just last year he labored to 15th- and 17th-place finishes at Kansas Speedway.  We need to wait and see if Logano can break this trend Thursday night before we start recommending his use again in fantasy leagues. 

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has three poles, three victories and 601 laps led in 27-career starts at Kansas Speedway.  Of those 27 starts Johnson has converted 19 Top 10's for a staggering 70-percent rate.  However, the Hendrick Motorsports star hasn't been in top form on these style ovals in 2020.  Johnson's disastrous day at Texas this past Sunday is a prime example.  He and the No. 48 team battled all kinds of issues and errors to finish a disappointing 26th in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  Johnson now has just two Top 10's in the seven intermediate oval races to-date this season.  Despite all the success that Kansas Speedway has yielded to the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet over the years, the risks are too great with his current slump.

Matt Kenseth – Kenseth's struggles and inconsistencies continued at Fort Worth this past Sunday.  The veteran driver only managed 18th-place by the end of 500-miles in Texas.  That was actually one of Kenseth's better finishes this year on a cookie cutter track.  His average is a much more inflated 22.0.  The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet is still trying to figure out this no-qualifying, no-practice format.  It's clearly giving him problems.  Kenseth has some good Kansas Speedway stats in his resume, two wins and 13 Top 10's.  However, much like Jimmie Johnson, he's a struggling veteran and currently not performing to any degree of consistency that can be relied on for fantasy racing deployment. 

Alex Bowman – Speaking of slumping intermediate oval drivers of this season, Bowman's name immediately comes to mind.  The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet added another dim chapter to his book this past Sunday at Texas by crashing and finishing 30th-place in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.  He has yet to crack the Top 10 in the seven intermediate oval events to-date and the average finish stands at a disappointing 20.3.  Bowman's three-career Top 10's in nine starts stands at a subpar 33-percent Top-10 rate at Kansas Speedway.  If this were a typical season for the veteran driver you could possibly make a case for a fantasy racing start at Kansas Speedway, but given his season-long struggles it's really no hill to make a last stand on.