STP 500 Preview: Short Track Survival

We just witnessed tire preservation and issues with tire wear at both Phoenix and Fontana. We will see a similar game played at the Martinsville oval. Brake preservation is the name of the game in Martinsville, because you essentially have two long drag strips with hairpin corners on either end. The oval looks very much like a paperclip when viewed from above, thus the nickname "the paperclip" has taken hold over the years. Taking care of your brakes for the full 500 laps becomes as important as passing on this tricky short track. Like any bull ring in the Monster Energy Cup Series, not only is equipment preservation important but qualifying and track position is of the utmost importance. If you start in the back of the field here, you can find yourself a lap down in a matter of minutes from the start of the race, so teams must place high priority on qualifying well.

As we saw at Fontana this past week with several teams failing to get through inspection and qualify, that would be devastating at a track like Martinsville. You won't be able to race your way through traffic and back toward the front as easily here as last week at Auto Club Speedway. Track position will become so important over the course of the race that you will see teams chose either not to pit certain cautions, or to take on two tires in order to grab valuable track position on pit road. All these factors make any Martinsville race a battle of survival and often times the best equipment preservation and pit strategy wins.

Since Martinsville Speedway is like no other track on the Monster Energy Cup circuit, we'll have to pay close attention to the loop stats this week. Recent historical statistics at Martinsville will be one of the biggest considerations in our weekly projections. Hot streaks go out the window to a certain extent when we visit this facility, so it's these recent numbers that require close scrutiny. The loop stats in the table below span the last 13 years or 26 races at Martinsville Speedway.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch - With a victory in this event two years ago, and a victory here last October, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has become one of the drivers to beat when we visit Martinsville Speedway. His last start at the half-mile paperclip saw the No. 18 Toyota lead 184 laps and survive a wild battle to claim his second-career victory at the Virginia short track. He's led over 800 laps in just his last four starts at this oval, and he has finished outside the Top 5 in his last five starts. Busch has been flirting with his first win of the season throughout the first five races of 2018, so this could be the weekend where the JGR No. 18 team puts it all together to visit victory lane.

Brad Keselowski - Keselowski has a rapidly improving Martinsville resume. The Penske Racing star has tons of success at the other short tracks of the Monster Energy Cup Series, but success has been slow to come at Martinsville Speedway. That all started to change in the 2015 season. Keselowski nabbed a runner-up finish at this half-mile oval in this event three years ago, and in the five races since he's claimed a victory, another runner-up finish and four Top 5s. It would seem that crew chief Paul Wolfe and this veteran driver have finally dialed-in this short track and they are now set to contend for the win each time the series visits Martinsville Speedway.

Chase Elliott - Elliott only has five-career starts at this half-mile oval, and while it's not been impressive to this point, we have seen incremental improvement with each start. In this event one year ago the Hendrick Motorsports youngster qualified on the outside pole and finished third after leading 20 laps. It was his career-best effort at the Virginia speedway. Elliott visited the foothills of Virginia again in October of last year, and was in the running to win. He led 123 laps and was all but in victory lane when a dust up with Denny Hamlin on the last lap forced NASCAR overtime, and denied the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet his first-ever win. We should see some resolve and some real emphasis on winning this weekend from Elliott and his team.

Denny Hamlin - Hamlin is usually one of the drivers to beat each time we visit Martinsville Speedway. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is a five-time winner at the Martinsville oval and he sports a stellar 75-percent Top-10 rate here. With almost 1,400-career laps led and 12 Top-5 finishes, Hamlin's excellence at this bull ring becomes clear. He's won here as recently as this event in 2015, and he's finished inside the Top 10 in three of his last five Martinsville starts. The veteran driver is off to a great start this season, and he led 33 laps and finished fourth at Phoenix two weeks ago. Hamlin should be hungry for a run at the checkers and a sixth grandfather clock trophy this weekend.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kevin Harvick - We always think highly of Harvick when it comes to short track racing and his Martinsville resume is pretty strong outside of the top contenders here. Harvick won this event in 2011 for his first career victory at Martinsville Speedway. He's also finished inside the Top 10 in five of his last nine races at the paperclip. Harvick has led over 600- career laps at the Southern Virginia short track, so he has no shortage of experience here. The Stewart Haas Racing star doesn't have the trophies at this oval that he does at others, but he's capable of turning in a good performance. The No. 4 Ford team has been razor-sharp this season, so Harvick brings a lot of upside into this STP 500.

Martin Truex Jr. - Truex has started the season with a bang. With a victory and four Top 5s in the first five events, the driver of the No. 78 Toyota comes to Martinsville first in the championship driver points. The paperclip has not been a venue of much success for Truex over his career. However, his move to Furniture Row Racing a few seasons ago has improved his performance at this particular oval. He has Top-10 finishes in four of his last six starts at Martinsville Speedway, including a pole position, 239 laps led and a runner-up finish at the oval last October. If the Furniture Row Racing team can qualify well, there's good reason to believe that Truex can race with the lead pack and possibly challenge for the win this Sunday afternoon.

Joey Logano - The Penske Racing ace has had a lot of up-and-down performances at the Virginia short track over the years, but of late showed signs of dramatic improvement. His last four seasons of racing at Martinsville has yielded well over 500 laps led, an amazing four pole positions, and five Top-10 finishes. Something has been missing from the list of ingredients thus far to get the No. 22 Ford into victory lane at this facility. All the puzzle pieces may fall into place this weekend. Logano could be the surprise winner in the field this weekend, but at the very least he'll represent well in fantasy racing leagues. With an average finish of 12.0 across his last four Martinsville Speedway starts, we're confident he'll race with the leaders and finish inside the Top 10 in Sunday's 500-lap battle.

Clint Bowyer - Bowyer has been steady as a rock this early-season. With two Top 10s and four Top 15s in the first five events, he's within the Top 10 in driver points coming back East. Now that we're entering the short tracks in the schedule, Bowyer should shine. His Martinsville stats are pretty spotless despite some inconsistency a couple seasons ago. 14 of his 24-career starts at Martinsville Speedway have netted Top-10 finishes. That works out to a very dependable 58-percent rate. Bowyer and crew chief Mike Bugarewicz have started to develop some chemistry and we should see it pay off in the STP 500. The veteran driver is on pace for about 15 Top-10 finishes this season, and Sunday's event should be one of those performances.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Martinsville who can provide a solid finish

Jimmie Johnson - The No. 48 team has stumbled out of the blocks this season, but nothing can turn around Johnson's campaign like a visit to his "comfort oval" Martinsville Speedway. Low downforce and some of the other puzzles that currently boggle this team will be non-factors at this short track. With nine-career wins at the Martinsville oval, Johnson is positioned to be one of the top drivers in this weekend's STP 500. He peddled to a hard-fought Top-10 finish last week at Fontana, so there's hope for another good performance this weekend. Johnson now has Top-15 finishes in his last three starts, and he has Top-15 finishes in his last five Martinsville Speedway attempts. The NASCAR legend has fallen from top dog status at this oval, to simply a steady fantasy racing play.

Alex Bowman - The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet has been a little slow to get traction this season, but there's signs he's making gains each week. Bowman has nabbed a pair of 13th-place finishes each of the last two weeks at Phoenix and Fontana, and now he's ready to try his hand at tough short track racing. The young driver will be making just his fifth-career start at the Martinsville short track, but his first with Hendrick Motorsports. His predecessor, Dale Earnhardt Jr., used to race very strong at this facility with this same race team, and we expect to see that excellence with Bowman. He qualified an impressive fourth and was one of only 15 drivers to finish on the lead lap at Phoenix a couple week ago. Bowman is ready to take on Martinsville Speedway.

Erik Jones - Riding a three-race Top-10 streak into Virginia, the No. 20 Toyota team comes into the STP 500 with some serious momentum. Jones has been consistently fast and has raced well above his age in terms of weekly performance. His two prior starts at Martinsville have been a bit of a mixed bag. He nabbed a 12th-place finish in this event one year ago, and he finished a sub-par 26th last October at the half-mile paperclip. There's ample reason for optimism given the current level of performance for this race team. Jones peddled the No. 20 Toyota to a steady ninth-place finish at the challenge Phoenix oval a couple weeks ago. That performance is still very fresh in our memory.

Ryan Blaney - If you feel like gambling a bit, Blaney could be the biggest risk that pays the biggest rewards this week at Martinsville Speedway. He's made four-career starts at this oval, and has only one Top-10 finish. Those who get deep into the analytics of the historical numbers could be turned off on the No. 12 team this week for this very reason. However, it's his last start that we believe needs the most scrutiny. Last October Blaney peddled his old Wood Brothers Racing Ford to an impressive eighth-place finish in the First Data 500. Now that he's with Penske Racing, the team upgrade should show on the race track this weekend. Blaney's teammates, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano, have been top Martinsville performers in recent seasons, and we believe that Penske Racing plays a big role in that success.

Ryan Newman - 2018 hasn't been a letdown nor has it been an explosion so far for the No. 31 team. Newman comes to Virginia 14th in the driver standings after one Top 10 and three Top 15s to start the season. He recently registered a respectable 11th-place finish at Phoenix, so we're encouraged for his chances at Martinsville this week. The small oval has held lots of success for the driver of the No. 31 Chevrolet over the years. Newman owns three pole positions, one win and 15 Top-10 finishes in 32 starts at this facility. That works out to a respectable 14.8 average finish and 47-percent Top-10 rate. The veteran driver nabbed an eighth-place finish in this event one year ago, and there's ample reason to believe he can do it again.

Austin Dillon - The No. 3 Chevrolet team is off and rolling this season. Dillon won the season-opening Daytona 500 and he's been rolling ever since. With Top-15 finishes in all but one of the first five events of the season, he comes to Martinsville a respectable 12th in the driver point standings. Short track racing has been a strength of this driver and team the past year. Dillon has two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his eight-career starts at Martinsville Speedway. That works out to a respectable 15.6 average finish. In this event one year ago the Richard Childress Racing driver finished an impressive fifth in last season's STP 500. Dillon brings Top-10 upside and Top-15 security into this visit to Martinsville Speedway.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson - Despite finishing runner-up at Fontana this past week, we have to put the slow down tag on Larson and the No. 42 team. They just have never had much luck in terms of racing at this particular short track. The Chip Ganassi Racing star has eight-career starts at Martinsville Speedway and only one Top-10 finish to his credit. Larson won the pole for this event one year ago, and led 23 laps, but somehow still managed to finish a sub-par 17th. His career average finish works out to a lowly 23.6 across those eight Martinsville starts. The three DNF's he's suffered at this oval have taken a big toll on that average. It's best to save this start for Larson and deploy him later in the schedule on an intermediate oval.

Kurt Busch - With his mediocre performance at Auto Club Speedway, Busch saw his stock drop a little coming to Martinsville. The good news is that we're coming to an oval where Busch is a two-time winner. However, the bad news is that it's been a short track of struggles for the veteran driver. Busch has only five Top-10 finishes in 35-career starts (14-percent) at the Martinsville oval. For whatever reason he can lead laps and race up front here, but the good finishes simply don't follow. Some drivers are just snake bitten at certain tracks, and that would be the case here. The risks of starting Busch in the STP 500 far outweigh the gains.

Jamie McMurray - McMurray's start to the season has been somewhat disappointing. The No. 1 Chevrolet team hasn't been as fast to adapt to the new Camaro as their teammates in the No. 42 team. The veteran driver has no Top 10s in the first five events, and comes to Virginia 26th in the overall driver standings. McMurray has failed to impress on some of his better tracks in those first five events of the season. Martinsville has held a lot of success over the years for McMurray. With 15 Top 10s in 30 starts, he sports a strong 50-percent Top-10 rate at this facility. However, that excellence started to show some cracks last season. Finishes of 38th- and 29th-place were McMurray's body of work at Martinsville last season. It's best to pass on the No. 1 Chevrolet team this week.

Darrell Wallace Jr. - The Richard Petty Motorsports rookie has come down from his extreme high of finishing second in the Daytona 500, and unfortunately has crashed a bit back to Earth. Three of his four finishes since Daytona have been efforts outside the Top 20. It's not all doom and gloom, but it's worth noting that Wallace faces a steep learning curve visiting some of these ovals for the first time in a Cup car. That would be the case this weekend in Martinsville. He'll be making his first start in a Cup car at the half-mile paperclip. While Wallace did win two truck series events at this same oval in 2013 and 2014, it's a big difference racing at NASCAR's top level at this facility. We expect to see the driver No. 43 Chevrolet struggle just a bit this Sunday.