Season Finale 500 Preview: Crowning the Champion

The finale of the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived. After 35 events full of spectacular crashes, dominating performances and surprise comebacks, we've finally reached the sport's championship-crowning moment. The drama has been building all season long, and even more so during the last several weeks of the Chase. For several years NASCAR has crowned its champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but two seasons ago the sanctioning body moved this championship race to Phoenix Raceway. The Phoenix track in Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D"-shaped oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees. The straights are completely flat and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. It's truly a unique facility among those on the NASCAR Cup circuit, and it's very fitting that it now determines the series champion. 

Since Phoenix Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well. Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix. However, one theme will be quite clear. Four drivers come to the Arizona desert in a dead-heat for the championship. The format of the Chase has narrowed the field to just Ross Chastain, Chase Elliott, Christopher Bell and Joey Logano. It all comes down to one race for all the marbles, with all four drivers starting even at 5,000 points. The stakes and the pressure have never been higher. As the last two weeks at Homestead and Martinsville have shown us, this has been a wild Chase for the Cup where anything can happen. The racing has been highly competitive and the fallout has made for some wild action on the track. So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

For the first time since March, we're racing at Phoenix Raceway. It was almost eight months ago that the NASCAR Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert. Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Ruoff Mortgage 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 17 seasons at the Phoenix oval for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the loop stats for the last 35 races at the Phoenix oval.

If anyone hopes to pull a surprise upset in the championship finale, we need to examine each of the four drivers carefully to make that prediction. Two of our four contenders — Joey Logano (2016 and 2020) and Chase Elliott (2020) —are past winners at the desert oval. However, we can't count out the red-hot Christopher Bell, who's coming off a big win at Martinsville this past weekend. He has three victories this season and two of those have come in the last four events. Despite being winless at Phoenix Raceway, Bell may have the best odds this weekend of taking the victory and the championship as well. He was a one-time Xfinity Series winner at Phoenix Raceway and has over 250 laps led at the Arizona oval in that division of NASCAR. Don't count out Ross Chastain either. His circus-stunt last lap at Martinsville last Sunday that propelled him into the Championship 4 shows just how far the Trackhouse Racing driver is willing to go to win this season's crown. Chastain has been a consistent performer in 2022 on the short tracks and has what it takes to step up his game and win. 

These drivers will be joined by short-track specialists Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson, Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney in racing for the checkers this weekend. All four have been eliminated from the Chase, but they're all looking to end the season with a win to carry some momentum into the off-season. One thing is for certain, when the green flag drops at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday afternoon the fireworks will fly as these drivers compete for the big stakes at the desert oval. We'll examine those championship-contending teams who are racing for all the marbles this weekend at the Phoenix short track and those who could sneak up and surprise them.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – With Bell's victory this past Sunday at Martinsville, he will race for the championship Sunday in the Arizona desert. While it may seem a bit of a Hail Mary for the No. 20 Toyota team, it shouldn't be that surprising. Bell has been one of the hottest drivers in the second half of the playoffs and has been razor sharp on short tracks this season (two wins, 398 laps led and five Top-5 finishes). Now he carries that momentum into the season finale and battle with three other drivers for the 2022 NASCAR championship. Bell has five career Cup starts at Phoenix with just a pair of Top 10s to his credit. In his Xfinity Series career, Bell won at this oval (2018) and has over 250 laps led with two pole positions. Bell will be on his A game Sunday afternoon in the Season Finale 500, and it will be up to the other drivers to beat him for the title.      

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been on this big stage before and won, sealing the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series championship. That victory is his lone win at Phoenix Raceway in his Cup Series career, but the Hendrick Motorsports star has always been good here, with five Top-5 finishes (39 percent), eight Top-10 (62 percent) finishes and well over 500 laps led. We're used to seeing Elliott race up front at the Phoenix oval no matter whether it's the early-season or late-season running at Phoenix Raceway. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been a top short-track performer in the new Next-Gen car. Elliott has one win, two runner-up finishes and four Top 5s for a 6.9 average finish on the short tracks this season. His only weakness heading into the finale has been his recent inconsistency. Still, Elliott has the Phoenix experience and short-track skill to pull a commanding performance Sunday afternoon.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star will be competing for his second NASCAR Cup Series championship this Sunday afternoon in Arizona. The 2018 champion has had a strong season in 2022 with three wins and a gutsy playoff performance that has kept him alive until the Championship 4. Short tracks have been a bit of a mixed bag for Logano this season with just four Top 10s (50 percent) and a 14.9 average finish, but he's coming off a solid sixth-place effort at Martinsville Speedway this past weekend. Logano is a two-time winner at Phoenix Raceway (2016 & 2020) and his 700+ laps led here make him the most successful Phoenix driver in this season's Championship 4. The driver of the No. 22 Ford will be in the hunt in the closing laps of the Season Finale 500, and if any of the other championship contenders stumble, Logano will be there to seize the opportunity.

Kyle Larson – Larson won't be defending his 2021 title this Sunday, which is unfortunate, but he'll still play the very capable spoiler role. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event one year ago for his first Phoenix victory and cracks the Top 5 at this short track at a very strong 38 percent rate. Short tracks have not been his best ovals this season, but Larson has picked up the pace on them in the latter half of the campaign. He has two pole positions, one runner-up finish, two Top 5s and 113 laps led in his last three starts on tracks one mile in size or less. Momentum is on the side of the No. 5 Chevrolet team right now and despite being knocked out of the playoffs earlier, Larson could play the role of upstaging the championship contenders and winning Sunday's Season Finale 500.         

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ross Chastain – Christopher Bell may have won at Martinsville last week, but Chastain stole the show with his circus-stunt pass aided by the wall on the last lap that propelled him up five spots, passing Denny Hamlin and putting him into the Championship 4. What surprises does the Trackhouse Racing veteran have in store for Phoenix? Who knows, but his last-lap heroics at Martinsville show that Chastain is dedicated, inventive and willing to do anything to win the title. He may be on the back foot compared to the other championship-contending drivers, but Chastain will be racing among them late Sunday. His short-track strength and consistency is well-documented this season, with one runner-up finish, 166 laps led, four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes on these small ovals, good for an average finish of 8.1.   

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was shockingly eliminated from the playoffs after the opening round. He may not be racing for the NASCAR title, but he'll look to rebound with a good performance at one of his favorite short tracks this week. Harvick has had his inconsistencies this year, but short tracks have been his better ovals. The Stewart Haas Racing star has a strong career resume at this particular short track. He has over 1,600 laps led at this facility and nine total victories. Harvick carries a staggering 18-race Phoenix Top-10 streak into Sunday's Season Finale 500. That includes his strong sixth-place finish here in March's Ruoff Mortgage 500. Never underestimate Harvick's ability to succeed at this race track.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star was eliminated from the Championship 4 despite leading 203 laps and finishing fifth at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday. It took Ross Chastain's surprising and inventive use of the outside wall on the last lap to knock him out of the playoffs. This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering, with two victories and 20 Top-10 finishes on his Phoenix resume. That works out to a strong 59 percent Top-10 rate. With an impressive average finish of 10.6 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough track. Hamlin won earlier this season on the Richmond oval and is riding a four-race Top-10 streak on short tracks coming into this event. He'll be strong despite not racing for the 2022 crown.     

Ryan Blaney – Despite a third-place finish at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday, Blaney fell short in his pursuit of racing for the championship this week at Phoenix. He'll shake that disappointment off and look to finish the season strong. Blaney has 13 career starts at Phoenix Raceway with eight Top-10 finishes to his credit. That works out to a strong 62 percent rate and 13.5 average finish for the youngster at the Arizona oval. The young driver has improved tremendously on short tracks during the last three seasons. Blaney won the pole, led 143 laps and finished a strong fourth-place in March's Ruoff Mortgage 500, and he should be sharp once more in Sunday's Season Finale 500.      

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

William Byron – Despite finishing a strong seventh place at Martinsville last Sunday, Byron was eliminated from the playoffs. He'll look to continue finishing the season strong in preparation for next year. Byron has been skilled on the short tracks in 2022. He won earlier in the season at Martinsville, has led close to 350 laps and has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes, good for a respectable 9.5 average finish. Byron's nine Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway have netted four Top-10 finishes (44 percent), so this has been a decent oval for the No. 24 team. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has one Xfinity Series victory at this small oval (2017), showing that he knows how to navigate the irregular D-shaped track in the desert. Byron should impress in this battle at Phoenix Raceway.

Alex Bowman – Bowman will be making a return to action after missing several races with concussion related symptoms. His No. 48 Chevrolet has been piloted by Noah Gragson in his absence but will be back under Bowman's direction in the Season Finale 500. Bowman has always liked Phoenix Raceway, earning a Top-15 finish here in March of this year to add to his resume at the desert oval. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran won the pole at Phoenix in 2016 and led a whopping 194 laps before finishing sixth-place that afternoon. Bowman has been a Top-15 finisher in three of his last five outings at Phoenix Raceway. He's also been a steady short-track producer in 2022, with two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes on the bullring circuit.    

Chase Briscoe – The Stewart Haas Racing youngster gave it a good ride, but he was eliminated from the playoffs at Martinsville Speedway despite 25 laps led and a solid ninth-place finish. The driver of the No. 14 Ford responded to the must-win scenario as well as he could, but it just wasn't enough. However, that doesn't mean Briscoe's fantasy racing utility will disappear this week. He won the race earlier this season at Phoenix in a strong performance and has mostly been a Top-15 finisher on the circuit's short tracks in 2022, as his 11.9 average finish attests. Briscoe and crew chief, Johnny Klausmeier, likely have some very good notes from their outing in March at Phoenix Raceway and will exploit them to good effect in Sunday's Season Finale 500.

Chris Buescher – We're willing to give Buescher a mulligan for his swing and miss at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday. That 24th-place finish was his worst short-track performance of the season. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has piled up one win, two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on these small ovals this season, which amounts to a strong 11.6 average finish. We believe the Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver will revert back to form in Sunday's Season Finale 500. Buescher finished 10th-place at this track in March of this year and that was his first-career Top 10 at Phoenix Raceway. Based on what we've seen of this driver and team in the new generation stock car, it won't be his last Top 10 in Arizona.  

Daniel Suarez – The Trackhouse Racing driver has been reasonably good on short tracks in 2022. Suarez has accounted for two Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for a respectable 15.9 average finish on the short-track circuit. One of his more solid runs came in March at Phoenix Raceway. Suarez came from 23rd place on the starting grid that afternoon to finish ninth in the Ruoff Mortgage 500. The driver of the No. 99 Chevrolet now has three career Top 10s at the Desert Jewel. Suarez is coming off a steady 12th-place finish this past Sunday at Martinsville and should carry that good momentum into the Season Finale 500.

Cole Custer – The play in deeper leagues or pools this week has to be Custer. If you're looking for a stealth short-track performer right now, one who's a bit under the radar, it's this driver and team. Custer qualified a sterling fifth place at Martinsville this past week and pedaled his No. 41 Ford to a Top-15 finish. His last short-track outing prior to that was his strong eighth-place finish at Bristol in September. Custer and his team have largely been lost in the tall grass this season, but they're getting their act together down the stretch. The young driver has one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes in five career Cup starts at Phoenix, but more interestingly, he has a number of Xfinity Series and Camping World Truck Series starts at Phoenix, with several Top 10s to his credit.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Tyler Reddick – After a crash the previous week at Homestead and a crash at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday, Reddick parked his No. 8 Chevrolet just 188 laps into the Xfinity 500. The young driver reported not feeling well and unable to finish the 500-lap battle at Martinsville. At the time of this writing he's still being evaluated by medical professionals, and there's been no word yet on his status for Sunday's Season Finale 500. Reddick's own words seem to describe concussion-like symptoms and it may well be that the very "stiff" Next-Gen car has claimed another concussion victim in 2022. Reddick's status is one to watch closely as the race weekend approaches, but it may very well be that the doctors shut him down for the remainder of the season after his illness at Martinsville this past week.      

Kyle Busch – Busch's car at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday was undriveable. By the conclusion of the first stage, Busch and the No. 18 team were already laps down to the leaders and fading rapidly. By the checkered flag, the Joe Gibbs Racing star was six laps down to the leaders and finished a distant 29th place. The shocking performance is something to highlight before Phoenix. Busch is parting ways with JGR at the conclusion of the season and it doesn't seem the separation is on good terms. It's a tumultuous situation at best, and one to avoid in fantasy racing games if possible. Despite Busch's three career Phoenix victories and 71 percent Top-10 rate at this oval, he makes a very risky fantasy selection in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues this week.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex looked like he was ready for the season to end after last Sunday's Martinsville race. He fell 2 laps down to the leaders and finished a distant 20th-place in the Xfinity 500. That's a short track that he used to dominate in recent seasons, but not this year. The schedule holds another short track for him this week, and another where Truex has had recent success. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota won and finished runner-up at this track in 2021, but he finished a distant 35th-place in this spring's Ruoff Mortgage 500. For whatever reason, Truex and his team have just struggled to adapt to the Next-Gen car on these small ovals. He makes a risky fantasy racing play in Sunday's 500k battle in the Arizona desert.                               

Austin Cindric – Cindric's distant 26th-place finish at Martinsville this past week continued to show that the driver of the No. 2 Ford is one to avoid on these short tracks. In eight starts this season on ovals this size, Cindric has just three Top-15 finishes vs. five finishes outside the Top 20. His average finish checks in at a subpar 20.3. This weekend's Season Finale 500 will be just Cindric's second career Cup start on the Desert Jewel. In March of this year he finished a distant 24th-place in his Cup debut at the track. While we expect some improvement for this driver and team, we don't expect a big move. Cindric has been great on the big ovals and road courses, but it's best to keep him shelved for these short-track events.