Quaker State 400 Preview: Kentucky Shootout

The NASCAR Cup Series will head to Kentucky for the first time this season as the schedule offers the Quaker State 400 at Kentucky Speedway in Sparta, Ky.  After years of playing host to NASCAR Xfinity and truck series events at the intermediate oval, Kentucky hit the big time in 2011 when the facility was awarded its place in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  The 400-mile event has been typically raced at night at Kentucky Speedway.  However, this season's schedule shakeup and rescheduled events have moved this from a Saturday night race and into a Sunday afternoon event.

The Kentucky tri-oval has a very similar configuration to Kansas Speedway in terms of banking and size.  We haven't raced at Kansas yet this season, so that barometer is not available to us for this event.  However, we did recently race at the Homestead intermediate oval.  That data could be somewhat useful in evaluating drivers for this weekend at Kentucky Speedway.  Both races are run in the heat of the day, and it's most likely that the drivers that succeeded with no practice or qualifying at Homestead will have the best chance to hit the ground running in the same scenario at Kentucky.  Probably the only major difference we'll see this weekend at Kentucky Speedway is that our lineup of streaking drivers is a bit different than when we visited Homestead.  The last several weeks have seen some shifts in who is hot and who is not as the series pulls into the Kentucky oval.  We'll take that information into consideration as we take a look at the historical numbers for this speedway.    

This will be just our tenth NASCAR Cup Series visit to Kentucky Speedway.  To say that we're a bit shorter than other tracks on historical data would be an understatement.  Still, we do have the nine prior races to pull some numbers from.  Granted the statistical sample is a bit small when compared to other tracks on the circuit, the data will still be a helpful tool in evaluating the drivers.  We'll also take a brief look back on the recently completed race at Homestead-Miami Speedway.  These two ovals are somewhat similar, and the Dixie Vodka 400 is so fresh statistically that these numbers are likely a good indicator of potential performance this weekend.  As you'll see in the table below, the electronic scoring from the last nine Kentucky races has some easily recognizable stars.  Here are the loop stats for the last nine races at Kentucky Speedway.

In last season's Kentucky race we saw Kurt Busch step up and take the victory in a surprising performance.  He led 41 of the 269 laps but would have to rally late to pass Joey Logano on the overtime restart to take the win at the Sparta oval.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran would collect his first-career victory at Kentucky Speedway.  While we saw the No. 18 Toyota of Kyle Busch up front most of that night, he wasn't able to run his older brother down in the last two laps.  There were many suitors for victory lane that hot summer night in Sparta.  The younger Busch was joined by Logano, Clint Bowyer and even Daniel Suarez as major players at the front of the pack.  With the Busch win, Chevrolet ended a two-race Toyota win streak at the Kentucky oval, and put the bowtie brand in victory lane there for the first time.  It will be interesting to see if Busch and other Chevrolet drivers can successfully defend their Kentucky crown this weekend.

The recently completed race at Homestead-Miami Speedway in mid-June is likely a good preview of what to expect at this similar oval.  The drivers that led laps, turned fast laps and raced up front at Homestead are the ones likely to put on a repeat performance at the Kentucky oval. Several different drivers swapped the lead that afternoon at Homestead, but it was Denny Hamlin that dominated most of the event.  Hamlin would lead significant laps, and hold off Chase Elliott right to the end to capture the victory.  We expect to see these two drivers in the mix and up front this Sunday afternoon. 

As far as the history of the Kentucky Speedway is concerned, it's no surprise that Kyle Busch is our loop stat leader coming into this weekend's race.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time Cup winner and three-time Xfinity winner at the Kentucky oval.  This has long been one of his favorite facilities to race each season.  Busch hasn't been in race winning form so far this 2020 season, but this could be the event that jump starts his season and quest to defend his championship.  We'll highlight the fantasy racing drivers you need to dominate at Kentucky Speedway this Sunday afternoon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – One of the hottest drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series the last several weeks has been Hamlin and his No. 11 Toyota team.  They were within laps of winning at Indianapolis this past weekend, but a tire failure took that one off the board.  Aside from that, he's grabbed two victories and one runner-up finish in the last five races.  Hamlin's nine-career Kentucky Speedway starts have netted four Top-5 finishes and an average finish of 14.9.  The 44-percent Top-5 rate is well above the norm.  Hamlin's last start at the Sparta oval yielded 5 laps led and a fifth-place finish last season.  Considering how the Joe Gibbs Racing star recently dominated to win from the pole position at Homestead, Hamlin has to be considered a very dangerous driver in this 400-mile race.       

Kevin Harvick – In this season's intermediate oval races, few drivers have had as much consistency as Harvick in the NASCAR Cup Series.  He's earned one win, two Top-5, four Top-10 finishes and 306 laps led in those five events.  Coming off the big win at the Brickyard this past Sunday, the No. 4 Ford team should stay on a roll in the Quaker State 400.  Harvick is winless so far for his career at Kentucky Speedway.  However, he has led over 100 laps and has grabbed six Top-10 finishes (67-percent) at the central Kentucky oval.  With Harvick's current momentum and win at Atlanta earlier this season, he has to be viewed as a top contender for the Quaker State 400.

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been a top performer on intermediate ovals since NASCAR returned to action in May.  With a Charlotte victory and pair of runner-up finishes in the five events of 2020, the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is racing extremely well on these cookie cutter ovals coming to Kentucky Speedway.  The Kentucky oval hasn't been this young driver's best, but Elliott does have one Top-5 finish in four starts at this facility.  He'll look to start improving that resume in Sunday afternoon's Quaker State 400.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver has led 189 combined laps this season on the intermediate ovals, so Elliott has had good speed at these tracks.  His 60-percent Top-5 rate this season and 7.8 average finish on these configuration ovals is well better than the norm.   

Aric Almirola – With a scintillating five-race Top-5 streak in tow coming to central Kentucky, Almirola is currently one of the hottest drivers in NASCAR's top division.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has found a groove in this no-qualifying, no-practice style of racing.  Almirola's recent Top-5 streak includes a strong fifth-place performance at the similar oval in Homestead.  As for Kentucky Speedway, the veteran driver has just one-career Top 10 at the track.  However, it's come in the last two seasons after his switch to Stewart Haas Racing.  Almirola's last two Kentucky Speedway starts have netted eighth- and 14th-place finishes.  He qualified on the outside pole here one year ago, so the No. 10 Ford team should have some good Kentucky notes.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing driver is looking to build momentum on his strong two-win season, and a visit to Kentucky Speedway may be just what the doctor ordered to keep the No. 2 Ford team on a roll.  Keselowski has been pretty strong on the intermediate ovals this season with one victory (Charlotte) and five Top-10 finishes.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford won this event in 2012, 2014 and 2016, so Keselowski is a three-time winner at Kentucky Speedway.  He has combined to lead 524 laps in his nine Kentucky Speedway starts.  That's a great sign of potential success for the veteran driver coming to Sparta, Kentucky this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch – Busch usually checks in among the contenders each time we visit Kentucky Speedway, but given his recent performance we've moved him to the solid plays list this week.  A two-time Kentucky winner, including this event five years ago, Busch should have an edge on most of the field this Sunday afternoon.  He's been steady on the intermediate ovals this season with two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the five events to-date.  Busch will look to build on the sixth-place finish he posted at Indianapolis this past weekend.  Kentucky is simply one of his favorite places to race.  Busch cracks the Top 5 at this oval at a ridiculous 78-percent rate.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has led a whopping 621 of the 2,412 laps (26-percent) raced at Kentucky Speedway.  Busch is a strong fantasy racing play this Sunday afternoon. 

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster has had tremendous speed this season on cookie cutter ovals, and his finishes have shown that stellar speed.  Blaney has racked up four Top-5 finishes in the five intermediate oval races of this season, and he's led a combined 93 laps in those starts.  That's a lot of racing up front for the No. 12 team at these style ovals.  Kentucky Speedway presents a shot at continuing this trend for the young driver.  Blaney has four-career starts at this oval, and he's nabbed a runner-up and two Top-10 finishes in those efforts.  The runner-up finish came in this event two seasons ago.  The Kentucky Speedway playbook is coming into focus for the No. 12 Penske Racing team.  Blaney is a driver to watch closely in this 400-mile battle under the lights.     

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has been a bit up-and-down on the cookie cutter ovals this season, but has still managed three Top-10 finishes in the five starts of 2020.  Logano is coming to the perfect track to get him back into the positive side of the ledger after his hard-fought 10th-place finish at the Brickyard this past week.  Kentucky Speedway brings an opportunity for the No. 22 Ford team to shine.  Logano has six Top 10's in nine-career starts at this facility with 91 laps led combined.  That 67-percent Top-10 rate and 12.8 average finish at the Kentucky oval is hard to overlook.  He should be wired tight for this 267-lap battle.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Kentucky & solid upside

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been somewhat up-and-down since NASCAR's return to action in mid-May.  Truex has grabbed one victory, which came on a short track, but he's been somewhat of an underperformer on late.  Only two of his last five starts have netted Top-10 finishes.  As a result, he gets a bit of a downgrade to the sleepers list this week.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has won two-career victories at Kentucky Speedway.  He also has five Top-10 finishes in 9 starts at the oval (56-percent).  Truex's outing here one year ago was a bit of a disappointment with a 19th-place finish.  All things considered, he should labor to a Top-10 finish in Sunday's 400-mile battle at Kentucky, but we don't expect to see Truex vying for the win in the final laps.

Matt Kenseth – The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has seemed to turn the corner on his slow start to the season the last two weeks.  Good efforts at Pocono were followed up by a stellar runner-up finish this past week at the Brickyard.  Kenseth seems to be adapting to the no-practice, no-qualifying format.  Kentucky Speedway has been a good track for the veteran driver.  Kenseth has one-career victory here, which came in 2013.  He also sports six Top-10 finishes in eight-career starts which is a lofty 75-percent rate.  The average finish across his career is a miniscule 8.4.  We expect to see continued improvement and likely another Top 10 out of the Chip Ganassi Racing veteran this week. 

Kurt Busch – Last season's event champion has a good career record at the Kentucky oval and he comes into this event looking to defend his race win of one year ago.  Busch will look to keep it going in Sunday afternoon's Quaker State 400.  Busch has displayed his usual expertise on the intermediate ovals this season.  He has an average start position of 10.0 and three Top 10's in his five starts on these style tracks to this point.  Busch's career performance at Kentucky Speedway has yielded six Top 10's in nine starts, so he clearly loves this oval in central Kentucky.  That 67-percent Top-10 rate is well above the series norm, and the 10.8 average finish is hard to ignore.  As the defending event champion, Busch has a ton of upside in this 400-mile contest.    

Erik Jones – Jones absolutely loves this race track.  In just three-career starts he's notched sixth-, seventh- and third-place finishes.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been inconsistent this season on the cookie cutter ovals.  Jones best performance has been an 11th-place finish, which came at Charlotte in late-May.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has been improving overall in recent races, and we should start to see it show on the cookie cutter ovals.  His favorite tracks have yielded good performances of late.  If there's any track to get him back in the groove at these style ovals, it's Kentucky Speedway.    

Christopher Bell – After the eighth-place finish he registered at Homestead a few weekends ago, Bell gets sleeper status this week at Kentucky Speedway.  This will be the Leavine Family Racing driver's first-career Cup Series start at the central Kentucky oval.  However, Bell does have one win and one runner-up finish in his two-career Xfinity Series starts at this facility.  That bodes well going into his Cup Series debut here.  The young driver is coming off a strong fourth-place finish at Pocono a couple weeks ago and a respectable 12th-place finish at Indianapolis this past week.  The rookie driver is one to watch closely in the Quaker State 400.

Austin Dillon – The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver has been very consistent on intermediate ovals this season.  Dillon has finishes of fourth-, 14th-, eighth-, 11th- and seventh-place on the 1.5-mile tracks in 2020.  That average finish checks in at a very respectable 8.8.  Crew chief Justin Alexander and the No. 3 RCR team have put good cars under Dillon on these style ovals.  Kentucky Speedway has been a mixed bag for Dillon over his career.  With just three Top-20 finishes in seven starts, the historical numbers don't inspire much hope.  Still, we have to take what he's done this season in context.  We believe it could add up to a first-career Kentucky Top 10 for Dillon this Sunday afternoon.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time NASCAR Cup Series champion had to sit out last week at the Brickyard after testing positive for COVID-19.  The missed start was the first of his lengthy 20-year career.  Johnson has been cleared to race this weekend at Kentucky after two negative COVID tests.  That's the good news.  The bad news is he's likely to disappoint in the Quaker State 400.  His five Top 10's in nine starts checks in at a respectable 55-percent rate.  Admittedly, his last four starts at Kentucky have not been the best, with three finishes outside the Top 25.  Johnson's intermediate oval exploits this season have been an inconsistent affair.  Two Top 10's in five starts and a 15.8 average finish don't inspire much confidence.  His subpar 16th-place finish at Homestead a couple weeks ago is likely a good indicator of his potential performance.     

Clint Bowyer – The last time we saw Bowyer in action on an intermediate oval, he labored to an 11th-place finish at Homestead.  That was his best effort of the season on the cookie cutter tracks, as his 19.6 average finish attests.  That has been the trend for the No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing team of late.  Things have been somewhat unpredictable and inconsistent.  Bowyer's inconsistency could easily continue at Kentucky Speedway this Sunday afternoon.  This has not been one of his better intermediate ovals.  Bowyer has just two Top-10 finishes in nine-career starts here, and an average finish of 16.7.  In terms of average finish, it's his third worst intermediate track on the circuit.  Bowyer only has a higher average finish at Atlanta and Charlotte.  

Ryan Newman – Like a lot of drivers, this past Sunday afternoon at Indianapolis did not go according to plan for Newman and the No. 6 team.  However, the veteran pilot will look to hit the reset button this weekend in Sparta, Kentucky.  Newman's career performances at this oval are a bit subpar with four Top-10 finishes in nine starts and an 14.4 average finish.  He's only cracked the Top 10 once in his last three Kentucky starts, and that's inflated his average finish just a bit here.  The No. 6 Roush Fenway Racing team has brought Newman to the track with subpar cars at these intermediate ovals in 2020.  With no Top-10 and only one Top-15 finish in four races, the average finish stands around 22.0.  There's just not enough performance here on the cookie cutter tracks to indicate any major expectations for this Sunday afternoon. 

Alex Bowman – After crashing and not finishing at the Brickyard this past week, we have to downgrade the No. 88 Hendrick Motorsports team this week at Kentucky.  Bowman has been an inconsistent mess all season, and one of the toughest drivers to predict in the NASCAR Cup Series.  Recently, he has sandwiched Talladega and Pocono Top 10's with two finishes outside the Top 25 at Pocono and Indy.  That's pretty much been the story of 2020 for Bowman and this race team.  Intermediate ovals have been stingy with no Top 10's and only two Top 15's in five starts with an average finish around 18.6.  Kentucky Speedway hasn't yielded much to Bowman either.  In four-career starts he only has one Top-20 finish.  Bowman appears to be a major fantasy racing risk for the Quaker State 400.