Quaker State 400 Preview: Saturday Night Shootout

The Kentucky tri-oval has a very similar configuration to Kansas Speedway in terms of banking and size. The teams that just dominated at Kansas a few weeks ago are sure to be looking forward to this weekend's trip to Sparta. While Kansas offers 15-degree corner banking compared to 14-degree corner banking at Kentucky, the similarities are enough to warrant reconsideration of the same driver group that we had in the recently completed Go Bowling 400. Both ovals are the tri-oval, "D-shaped" variety so the handling characteristics will be much the same. Probably the only major difference we'll see this weekend at Kentucky Speedway is that our lineup of streaking drivers is a bit different than when we visited Kansas. The last several weeks have seen some shifts in who is hot and who is not as the series pulls into the Kentucky oval. We'll take that information into consideration as we take a look at the historical numbers for this speedway.

This will be just our seventh Monster Energy Cup Series visit to Kentucky Speedway. To say that we're short on historical data would be a big understatement. Still, we do have the six prior races to pull some numbers from. Granted the statistical sample is a bit small, the data will still be a helpful tool in evaluating the drivers. We'll also take a brief look back on the recently completed race at Kansas Speedway. These two ovals are quite similar, and the GoBowling.com 400 is so fresh statistically that these numbers are likely a good indicator of potential performance this weekend. As you'll see in the table below, the electronic scoring from the last six Kentucky races has some easily recognizable stars. Here are the loop stats for the last six races at Kentucky Speedway.

The recently completed race at Kansas Speedway in mid-May is likely a good preview of what to expect at this similar oval. The drivers that led laps, turned fast laps and raced up front at Kansas are the ones likely to put on a repeat performance at the Kentucky oval. Several different drivers swapped the lead that evening at Kansas, but it was Martin Truex Jr. that dominated that event, and would cruise to the win that night. Kyle Busch would lead significant laps, and Keselowski would be there to push Truex at the end. We expect to see these three drivers in the mix and up front this Saturday evening. As far as the history of the Kentucky Speedway is concerned, it's no surprise that Busch is our loop stat leader coming into this weekend's race. The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time Cup winner and two-time Xfinity winner at the Kentucky oval. This has long been one of his favorite facilities to race each season. Among the lower tier contenders, we need to keep both Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick in mind. Larson is mired in a mini-slump right now, but he's been strong on these intermediate ovals in 2017. Harvick has been equally good on the mid-size ovals and he's racing extremely well entering this weekend. We'll highlight the fantasy racing drivers you need to dominate the evening at Kentucky Speedway this Saturday night.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing driver is looking to build momentum on his already strong two-win season, and a visit to Kentucky Speedway may be just what the doctor ordered to keep the No. 2 Ford team on a roll. Keselowski has been pretty strong on the intermediate ovals this season with one win and four Top-10 finishes. He's one of only four drivers to have won on these cookie cutter ovals this season. The driver of the No. 2 Ford won this event in 2012, 2014 and 2016, so Keselowski is a three-time winner at Kentucky Speedway. He combined to lead 483 laps in his six Kentucky Speedway starts. That's a great sign of potential success for the veteran driver coming to Sparta, Ky., this Saturday night.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Furniture Row Racing star has fallen into a bit of a rut to end June, but he'll be very glad to get back to intermediate ovals this week. Truex has been one of the top performers on these style tracks the last three seasons. The driver of the No. 78 Toyota won earlier this season in dominant fashion at the similar oval in Kansas. He also won at the lower banked 1.5-mile oval in Las Vegas back in March. In those two races alone Truex combined to lead well over 250 laps. We see the Denver, Colorado-based team bringing that excellence to the Sparta oval this Saturday night. Truex should be racing with the leaders and contending for the win in the Quaker State 400.

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star checks in on the contenders list this week despite having no victories yet in 2017. The winner of two Kentucky races, including this event two years ago, Busch should have an edge on most of the field this Saturday night. He's been strong on the intermediate ovals this season with two Top-5 finishes in the five events to-date. Busch is putting some consistency issues behind him right now, but his runner-up finish at the intermediate oval of Charlotte a few weeks ago is a good indicator of potential this weekend. Kentucky is simply one of his favorite places to race. Busch cracks the Top 5 at this oval at a ridiculous 83-percent rate. Busch has led a whopping 437 of the 1,602 laps raced at Kentucky Speedway.

Kevin Harvick – In this season's intermediate oval races, few drivers have been hotter than Harvick in the Monster Energy Cup Series. He's earned the sixth-most points of any driver with 172. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has two Top-5, four Top-10 finishes, 424 laps led and three pole positions in those five events. The No. 4 Ford team should stay on a roll in the Quaker State 400. Harvick posted one of those Top-5 finishes (third) at the very similar oval Kansas Speedway, so he's dialed-in on these intermediate ovals. Harvick has yet to win at Kentucky or on the cookie cutter tracks this season, but the timing may finally be right for him to break through this weekend.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kyle Larson – The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet is coming off a hard crash and DNF at Daytona last weekend. Hopefully, he's no worse for wear despite the harrowing Coke Zero 400 and its many accidents. As we return to the cookie cutter ovals we have to look at Larson's body of work on these style tracks in 2017. The results are very good. Larson has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in the five intermediate oval events to-date. His 9.0 average finish on these style tracks ranks him third among all drivers in average finish. The Chip Ganassi Racing driver only has three-career Kentucky Speedway starts to his credit, and the results have been less than impressive to this point. We predict a first-career Kentucky Top 10 in Saturday evening's Quaker State 400.

Joey Logano – The No. 22 Penske Racing team has been dealing with consistency issues since early May. Logano is also looking to rebound from a poor Daytona outing this past week. He has earned a pair of Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes on the 1.5-mile oval circuit this season, so the cookie cutter ovals have been solid despite the team's struggles. Logano is coming to the perfect track to get him back into the positive side of the ledger. Kentucky Speedway brings an opportunity for the No. 22 Ford team to shine. Logano has three Top 10s in six-career starts at this facility with 60 laps led combined. He should be wired tight for this 267-lap battle.

Kurt Busch – Busch has a good career record at the Kentucky oval and he comes into this event looking to continue his success on the larger ovals this season. The SHR veteran driver will look to keep the roll going in Saturday night's Quaker State 400. Busch has displayed his usual expertise on the intermediate ovals this season. He has an average start position of 11.6 and three Top 10s in his five starts on these style tracks to this point. Busch's last performance on an intermediate oval yielded a brilliant sixth-place finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway at the end of May. The Stewart Haas Racing driver has three Top-10 finishes in his last four Kentucky Speedway starts, so he clearly loves this oval in central Kentucky.

Ryan Blaney – The Wood Brothers Racing driver will be making just his second-career start at Kentucky Speedway this Saturday night, but that is of little concern. The No. 21 Ford has been powerfully strong this season on the cookie cutter ovals. Blaney nabbed a pole position, 83 laps led and fourth-place finish at the similar oval in Kansas recently. That impressive performance was backed up by seventh- and 12th-place finishes at Las Vegas and Fort Worth. Blaney had a poor finish here last season in his Kentucky debut. We're willing to bet he bounces to the other extreme this weekend. He is a driver to watch closely in this 400-mile battle under the lights.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Kentucky who can provide a solid finish

Matt Kenseth – With struggles at Sonoma and Daytona the last two races, Kenseth and the No. 20 team have to be viewed as a desperate and hungry bunch coming to the Sparta oval. The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran has Top-10 finishes in three of the five intermediate oval races this season and he's coming off a strong fourth-place finish in the last of those races at Charlotte. While he may not roll into victory lane this Saturday night, he and the team have been steady and consistent enough to pencil in for Top 10s at these facilities. Kenseth won this event three years ago, and is a perfect six-for-six in Top-10 finishes at Kentucky Speedway.

Clint Bowyer – With runner-up finishes in each of the last two races (Sonoma and Daytona) how can we not be high on Bowyer and his No. 14 team this week? The veteran driver is just a tick off grabbing his first win with his new team, and while that's not likely to change this week, a good performance should be expected. Bowyer has a pair of Top-10, a pair of 11th-place and five Top-15 finishes in all five of the intermediate oval events this season. That's not a stunning level of performance, but it's quite consistent and reliable. Bowyer hasn't had any letdowns on these style tracks in 2017. The veteran driver has only one Top-10 finish in his six prior Kentucky Speedway starts, but we predict that figure will change after Saturday night's Quaker State 400.

Chase Elliott – After a couple weeks of racing on road courses and superspeedways, Elliott will be glad to get back to the intermediate oval circuit. The No. 24 team has been heating up over the last month plus, so with a return to cookie cutter ovals, the young driver is poised to capitalize. Elliott registered some great results earlier in the season on these style ovals with fifth-, third- and ninth-place finishes at Atlanta, Las Vegas and Texas. This will be just his second-career Cup start at Kentucky speedway, and his debut didn't go so well in 2016. However, Elliott nabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes at Kentucky Speedway in four Xfinity Series starts at the oval. He's all too familiar with what it takes to succeed here.

Daniel Suarez – The rookie Joe Gibbs Racing driver will be making his Kentucky Speedway debut in NASCAR's top division this Saturday night. Don't let that deter you from fantasy racing deployment, especially in weekly lineup leagues. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has been gradually gaining traction as the season has worn on. Suarez has nabbed two of his four Top 10s this season since May. He comes to Kentucky a season-high 18th in the driver standings. This driver and team's last two intermediate oval outings tell the tale. Suarez grabbed a strong seventh-place finish at the very similar oval in Kansas, and he had nearly as impressive an outing at Charlotte, coming home 11th. When we look at his Xfinity Series resume at this track, we see three strong Top-5 finishes in four starts. Suarez should have a great Cup debut at this oval.

Jamie McMurray – In a lot of ways McMurray has been as equally impressive as his more-celebrated teammate, Kyle Larson, this season. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet comes to Kentucky Speedway eighth overall in the driver standings and with 10 Top-10 finishes through the first 17 events of 2017. He's on track to have one of the more productive campaigns of his racing career. McMurray has some limited Kentucky success (two Top 10s in six starts, 18.5 average finish), but his body of work on the 1.5-mile ovals this season stands alone. The veteran driver has four Top-10 finishes in those five events, and the lone effort outside the Top 10 was a 12th-place finish at Charlotte this past May. McMurray has been one of the most consistent performers on this style of track to this point in the season.

Erik Jones – The Furniture Row Racing rookie has been coming on strong in the latter half of the spring. Jones has nabbed three of his four Top-10 finishes this season since the end of May. That includes his respectable ninth-place finish at Daytona this past weekend. The driver of the No. 77 Toyota now sets his sights on his first-career Cup start at Kentucky Speedway. Jones is all too familiar with this oval from his Xfinity Series career. Jones grabbed one pole position, 138 laps led and three Top-10 finishes in his four-career Kentucky starts in that division of NASCAR. If his very impressive seventh-place finish at the 1.5-mile Charlotte oval recently is any indicator, we should have high expectations for this driver and team at Kentucky.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – After Earnhardt's disappointing crash and DNF at Daytona this past week, it's become clear to us that the No. 88 team can't really be depended on for much reliability this season. With only four Top-10 finishes thus far this season, he's on track for one of his second or third-worst seasons of his 18-year career. The intermediate ovals have yielded little success for the Hendrick Motorsports star this season. Earnhardt has two Top 10s in five starts on these style tracks this season. His Kentucky resume is somewhat worse. Six-career starts have yielded only two Top-10 finishes. Fantasy racing players are becoming more and more impatient with this driver and team's inconsistency this season.

Danica Patrick – The driver of the No. 10 Ford is coming to Kentucky Speedway looking to rebound from a tough first half of the season. Patrick has one Top-10 through 17 events, but an eye-popping seven DNF's. Two of those DNF's have come in just the past three events. Kentucky Speedway holds little hope of success for the Stewart Haas Racing veteran. Patrick has four prior starts at the oval and only one Top-20 finish (23.8 average finish). The intermediate ovals have also been a tough puzzle for her this season. Patrick's five starts to date have yielded only one Top-20 finish and an average finish of 27.6 across those starts. Quite honestly, we can't recommend starting this driver and team even in the deepest of fantasy leagues.

Paul Menard – The veteran Richard Childress Racing driver has shown some signs of life of late in an otherwise tough season. Menard has nabbed 11th- and third-place finishes at Sonoma and Daytona and is coming to Kentucky looking to keep the momentum rolling. However, that will be a tall task for the No. 27 Chevrolet team. Menard's 2017 season is only looking slightly improved over his very rough 2016 campaign. His intermediate oval outings have been a part of the problem. Menard has only two Top-20 finishes in five starts to-date, and two finishes outside the Top 30. His Kentucky resume is no more assuring, with no Top-10 finishes in six-career starts and a pair of finishes outside the Top 20. Rolling the No. 27 RCR team in your fantasy racing lineup this Saturday night just seems like too much of a gamble at this critical point in the season.

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time Monster Energy Cup Series champion has fantastic Kentucky Speedway stats, so the slow down list call this week is based on some speculation. Johnson's last start at the Sparta oval was a complete disaster. He crashed and finished 32nd in last season's Quaker State 400 for his first-ever DNF at the facility. The intermediate ovals haven't been particularly kind to Johnson in 2017. Aside from the big Texas victory, Johnson has finishes of 19th-, 11th-, 24th- and 17th-place on the 1.5-mile oval circuit to this point. That is far from consistent for a driver and team of this caliber. It's also illustrative of Johnson's "uneven" season to this point. Incredible success mixed with unexplainable power outages.