Overton's 400 Preview: Pocono Rewind

With that in mind, it's not unreasonable to expect those drivers who performed well the first time around to have a good chance at repeating their success since they'll likely be unloading the same chassis and running a similar if not identical race set-up. Given the vital information teams gathered here earlier this summer, it's not unusual to see season-sweeps or repeat winners at this 2.5-mile triangle. Repeating one's success at Pocono Raceway is more likely to happen than at almost any other track that the Monster Energy Cup Series visits. Those drivers and teams that figured out the fastest way around the Tricky Triangle in June should have a leg up now that we've come to the late-July date at this tri-oval. The style of racing is also very similar to the techniques used at Indianapolis Motor Speedway just this past weekend. Because of this, current momentum and hot streaks will also play a role in Sunday's Overton's 400.

Considering that this is the second race of 2017 at Pocono Raceway, we need to take a quick look at the loop stats for this unique facility. This track is so unlike any other on the circuit that we'll really need to focus on the last race and recent performances at Pocono for this weekend's drivers. Current trends at this track, including the race this past June, should hold pretty true to form this weekend. As you'll see in the loop stats below we have an easily identifiable group of drivers that love to race on the three-turn Pennsylvania track. The loop stats shown below cover the last 12 years or 25 races at Pocono Raceway.

Blaney wasn't the only strong driver that afternoon in June. There were several strong teams and suitors for victory lane at Pocono. Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski, Erik Jones and Harvick all flexed their muscles at the front of the pack. They're likely the best list of candidates to step up their game for Sunday's Overton's 400. Two drivers who were expected to make a big splash in June's Axalta We Paint Winners 400 were Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. Both had really high expectations, but both had their separate issues en route to poor finishes that afternoon. These two certainly have the capability to rebound given their good historical stats at Pocono Raceway, but it would be wise to use caution before buying fantasy racing shares of either this weekend. One other thing to keep in mind this week in Pennsylvania is that all three manufacturers have won at this facility in the last four events. That means that manufacturer parity is at an all-time high at Pocono. For Toyota, the X-factor this weekend is certainly Busch. He unloads dominant race cars each weekend, but somehow finds ways to miss victory lane. His crash while leading at Indianapolis this past week is a prime example. Will the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing team finally break into the win column this weekend? There's definitely a very good chance. Considering the recent race at the 2.5-mile triangle and past history of the track, here are the drivers that should give you the edge in winning your league this weekend.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – Pocono Raceway had been a boom-or-bust track for Busch during most of his colorful NASCAR career. However, in recent seasons that this trend is reversing. The No. 18 Toyota team has turned in some of their best performances at the huge triangle in the last few years. Busch has won two of the last four pole positions at the Pennsylvania raceway, and he has a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last two starts at the triangular oval. The veteran Joe Gibbs Racing driver led a career-best 100 laps at Pocono in June, but was denied the win. The No. 18 Toyota was powerfully fast at Indianapolis this past week, and Busch cannot be held out of victory lane forever. Sunday seems like a good day for Busch to pick up his first win of the season and first of his career at Pocono Raceway.

Kevin Harvick – The Stewart Haas Racing star has never won at the three-turn Pennsylvania oval, but recent signs have been pointing to a breakthrough. Harvick has led 63 combined laps and finished runner-up in three of the last six Pocono Raceway events. Those efforts have brought his career Top-5 rate at the oval to a respectable 27-percent. The driver of the No. 4 Ford has been within an eyelash of winning a handful of events this season, so Harvick is worthy of weekly contender status at most tracks from a fantasy racing standpoint. He was just about the only Ford driver that could keep within eyesight of Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. this past weekend at Indianapolis so the No. 4 Ford team is dialed-in and running strong returning to Pocono.

Martin Truex Jr. – One of the biggest highlights of Truex's career and the Furniture Row Racing team had to be their dominant Pocono victory in 2015. Truex led 97 laps that Sunday afternoon and left little to doubt in an impressive victory over Kevin Harvick. The veteran driver of the No. 78 Toyota has cooled off in Pocono outings since then, but he's still a very strong driver to start at this tri-oval. Truex won the pole and led 16 laps in this event one year ago before crashing out with the DNF. His return here last June saw the veteran driver qualify on the outside pole and lead 5 laps before finishing sixth in the Pocono 400. The Furniture Row Racing team has the speed right now and Truex has the ability to register a dominant performance in this Sunday's race.

Kyle Larson – The Chip Ganassi Racing driver has struggled a bit in July, but Pocono Raceway should get him rebooted for the late-summer stretch run up to the Chase. Larson posted a pair of runner-up finishes between his Daytona and Indianapolis disappointments, so the news isn't all bad. Pocono Raceway has all the markings of a great outing for the No. 42 team. Larson's seven-career starts at this unique track have yielded four Top-10 finishes (57-percent). The last of those coming in June's Axalta Presents the Pocono 400, which was just a few short weeks ago. Larson has led a combined 46 laps in just his last two Pocono Raceway starts. He has the speed at this oval to surprise some of the bigger names.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a four-time Pocono winner, but he's not won at the facility since early 2010. He's also battled inconsistency and performance struggles at this oval in recent seasons. Despite all this, he managed a good effort in June at the Tricky Triangle. Hamlin qualified 18th on the grid and finished 12th here in June despite his inconsistency. Hamlin is so good at this 2.5-mile triangle that he's a contender for the win on the good years, and an almost sure Top-10 finisher even in the bad years. Things have been turning positive of late for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota. He has four Top-5 finishes in his last six races coming into Pocono. A 15th-career Pocono Top 10 would appear to be in the offing for Hamlin this weekend.

Ryan Blaney – The Wood Brothers Racing driver shocked the NASCAR world with his big-time win at the Pocono triangle back in June. Blaney beat the very best in the series in his impressive first-career victory. While a season-sweep of the Tricky Triangle may prove to be just that…tricky, it would seem more likely that the No. 21 Ford will again display incredible speed, and Blaney incredible skill. The likelihood of a strong Top-10 finish seems more probable. The young driver has 10th-, 11th- and 1st-place finishes in his three-career starts at Pocono Raceway. It's painfully clear that Blaney loves racing at this unique oval, and he'll once again be among the leaders this Sunday afternoon.

Kurt Busch – The three-time Pocono winner showed he could carry his excellent Pocono resume from his older teams to his Stewart Haas Racing No. 41 team with his big victory here in 2016. Busch saddled up at the Tricky Triangle seven weeks ago and grabbed an impressive fourth-place finish. It was the veteran driver's 14th-career Top 5 at Pocono Raceway. That works out to a very high 44 percent over 32 starts. Busch has led well over 500 laps for his career at the three-turn Pennsylvania oval. The driver of the No. 41 Ford has been posting great finishes at some of his favorite ovals this season, and that's a great sign going into the Overton's 400.

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star really seems like a boom-or-bust pick this week, but we're leaning towards the boom based on what we've seen out of the No. 2 Ford team of late. Keselowski has ninth- and second-place finishes in his last two races, and he's displaying the speed to get the No. 2 Ford back to victory lane. His historical numbers at Pocono Raceway show a victory in 2011and eight Top 10s in 15-career starts. Inconsistency had been an issue with Keselowski at this oval in the past, but he's quickly turning that around. He rides a four-race Pocono Top-5 streak into Sunday's action. That should be the edge to carry him to another Top-5 finish at the Tricky Triangle.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Pocono who can provide a solid finish

Joey Logano – Our 2012 Pocono winner will return to Pennsylvania and look to continue building on his recent success at the raceway. Logano has picked up three Top-10 finishes in his last six trips to the 2.5-mile tri-oval in the Pocono Mountains. Whatever the Penske Racing driver has figured out about this facility while he was with Joe Gibbs Racing, it seems to have crossed over to his No. 22 Ford team at Penske. Logano has reversed some recent struggles with eighth- and fourth-place finishes in two of his last three races. His Top-5 finish at Indy this past week sets up pretty well for this event on a similarly configured flat oval.

Matt Kenseth – While Kenseth's career numbers at the three-turn Pennsylvania oval are considered mild-mannered at best. The move to Joe Gibbs Racing in 2013 was career redefining for the former champion, and it has started to show at this oval. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has 14-career Top-10 finishes at Pocono and most of those have come in recent visits. Kenseth sports four Top 10s in his last five starts at the Tricky Triangle. Considering that he's riding a two-race Top-5 streak entering this event and coming off a strong fifth-place finish at Indy, we think Kenseth will be excellent in this 400-mile event. He's a safe fantasy racing play this Sunday in all weekly lineup leagues.

Erik Jones – The Furniture Row Racing rookie got a rude reception in his Indianapolis debut this past weekend. Jones would crash and finish 31st at the Brickyard, but not before leading 10 laps, racing with the leaders and showing incredible speed. He should be poised to rebound at Pocono Raceway this Sunday afternoon. In his first start at the triangular oval in June was one of the best performances of his rookie season. Jones qualified 15th on the grid and raced up front most of the afternoon before finishing a stellar third in the Pocono 400. You can guarantee the No. 77 Furniture Row Racing team took some good notes away from that outing. This driver and team are set up for success again at Pocono Raceway.

Chase Elliott – Elliott's improbable engine failure at Indianapolis this past week snapped a streak of good runs for the No. 24 team. He had five Top 10s in the seven events prior to that DNF. Elliott's performance here in June was a respectable eighth-place finish, one of those string of good efforts. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet owns a pair of Top-10 finishes in his three-career Pocono starts. The Hendrick Motorsports driver's debut at this oval last season was a 51-lap led fourth-place finish in the Axalta We Paint Winners 400. Elliott should be on the rebound trail this weekend, and he's visiting a facility that has been confident and comfortable for this young driver.

Ryan Newman – Things appear to be lining up for a very successful weekend at Pocono for Newman. He's coming off a strong third-place finish this past week at Indianapolis. The No. 31 team should ride the momentum of that great effort into Sunday's battle. Newman has 14 Top-10 finishes in 31-career starts at Pocono Raceway. His recent performances have been consistent as well. The Richard Childress Racing veteran is riding a three-race Pocono Top-15 streak into Sunday's 400-mile race. Veteran drivers always have a leg-up on the younger competition when we visit a tough oval like Pocono, and Newman should play that hand well Sunday afternoon.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Another driver poised to rebound this week should be Roush Fenway Racing veteran Stenhouse. The driver of the No. 17 Ford snapped a three-race Top-15 streak with his crash at Indianapolis last week. He's been a Top-15 driver most weeks this season, so it's not been an unusual sight. Stenhouse racked up a Pocono career-best 11th-place finish at the track in June. In fantasy racing terms he's been a not-so-evident good start most weekends this season. Stenhouse should deliver good results again at the Tricky Triangle this Sunday. His effort here in June should be a good baseline of what to expect in the Overton's 400.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson has gone stone cold in recent races, so we've downgraded him to the slow down list this week for that reason. The seven-time champion has crashed and DNF'd in two of the last three events and has only one Top-10 finish in the last five races. Johnson has been equally cold in recent Pocono outings. Finishes of 35th-, 16th- and 36th-place have been his last three performances at Pocono Raceway. Despite Johnson's three-career wins and 19 Top 10s at this facility he makes a very risky fantasy racing play for this 400-mile battle. Let other fantasy racing players lean on his career stats at this oval and suffer the disappointment this weekend.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – The NASCAR icon has been a real mess this season. With only four Top-10 finishes through the first 20 races, he's squarely outside the Top 20 of the driver standings coming to Pocono. In Earnhardt's June visit to the Tricky Triangle it was the most improbable of gremlins that plagued the No. 88 team. The Hendrick Motorsports star had shifter troubles and blew not one, but two engines that weekend. The latter coming in the race itself, and relegating Earnhardt to the disappointing engine failure and DNF. Those troubles loom large with the team's recent level of performance. Could the shifter problems resurface this weekend for Earnhardt and the team? Don't be the fantasy racing victim and find out the hard way.

Paul Menard – The up-and-down performances of the last five events entering this weekend may be just a sign of things to come for the No. 27 Chevy team. Menard's Pocono resume is also checkered in that same manner. The veteran driver owns only two Top-10 finishes in 21-career starts. That checks in at a bloated 23.8 average finish. Recent outings have been just as difficult. Menard has finishes of 33rd-, 35th- and 20th-place in his last three trips to the Pennsylvania triangle. Predicting up-tick weeks for the No. 27 team is problematic at best, and this doesn't appear to be one of those weekends for the Richard Childress Racing driver.

Jamie McMurray – While this has been a banner season for the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet, things have turned a bit south of late. McMurray has struggled to 17th- and 15th-place finishes the last two weeks. That doesn't sound so bad until you put it in perspective. He had Top 10s in 11 of his first 18 races prior to this stretch. A chink in the armor has finally surfaced, albeit late in the summer. Pocono Raceway has been real challenging for McMurray over his career. With seven Top-10 finishes in 29 starts (24-percent) it's not been an automatic track in his resume. Finishes of 20th- and 37th-place have been his last two starts at the Tricky Triangle. It's best to keep McMurray on the bench for this week.