O'Reilly Auto Parts 500: Return to the Fast Tracks

Texas Motor Speedway possesses the trademark characteristics of the "D" shaped tri-ovals on the circuit. This facility has 24 degree banking in the turns and very high speeds similar to that of the oval in Atlanta. This race will give us a good indication of the drivers that will be dominant for the remainder of the season, since this style of track makes up the bulk of the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule. We can look back at the results from Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Atlanta Motor Speedway a few weekends ago and get a good indication of who will perform well at TMS on Sunday afternoon. We've raced just enough on this style of track to have a good feel for who is on top of their game right now. Surprisingly, the Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets struggled mightily at Las Vegas and Atlanta, so it will be interesting to see if the teams from that stable learned anything from their issues or if they will continue to have problems on intermediate ovals. While the teams of Penske Racing, Stewart Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing have flourished in the two intermediate oval events of the young season, we'll see if their hot streaks continue in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Since we are returning to a 1.5-mile oval this week, we can look back on the data from Las Vegas and Atlanta with some confidence this weekend. But that is really just two events in the big scheme of things. An invaluable aid will be to examine the most recent data from the oval in Fort Worth. The electronic loop statistics at Texas Motor Speedway will be one of our most important tools for selecting drivers for this weekend's race. These numbers will help us to spot trends, and when combined with how the teams performed at Las Vegas and Atlanta, both should provide us with valuable information for this Sunday afternoon's race. The loop stats in the table below cover the last 13 years or 26 races at Texas Motor Speedway.

When we look at Chevrolet, we see that Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott will be the duo of drivers to watch closely this Sunday afternoon. If Chevy hopes to play some catchup this weekend the burden will largely fall on those two driver's shoulders. They have their work cut out for them, but they have the best potential to shine for the bowtie brand. Throw in the steady and consistent Fords of Penske Racing and we have what is shaping up to be a multi-team, multi-manufacturer brawl this weekend in Texas. We'll take a look at recent intermediate oval stats and historical trends at Fort Worth in order to give you the drivers to win in your fantasy leagues in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kevin Harvick - The No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team is off to a great start in 2018. Harvick has already won three races in this early season, and has asserted a newfound dominance. He's poised to explode this Sunday at the oval in Fort Worth. Despite never having won at this oval until last November, Harvick has been a consistent finisher at Texas Motor Speedway over the years. With 18 Top-10 finishes in 30 starts he checks in at a strong 60-percent rate. Harvick rides a seven-race Texas Top-10 streak into the weekend, including his win last fall in the AAA Texas 500. We can't overlook this veteran driver's strong performances on the similar ovals of Atlanta and Las Vegas earlier this season. Harvick led 395 combined laps in those two events and ran away with the victories.

Martin Truex Jr. - The Furniture Row Racing star racked up his first-career Martinsville win before the off-week, and now he rides that momentum into Texas. This intermediate oval is even better suited to team No. 78's strengths than the Martinsville short track. The pair of Top-5 finishes at Atlanta and Las Vegas are more than ample evidence of this fact. Intermediate ovals are great tracks for the driver of the No. 78 Toyota and that should be encouraging going into this Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. Truex rides a six-race Texas Top-10 streak into this weekend, and he's led a combined 350+ laps there in just his last four starts alone. He finished runner-up to Harvick at TMS last November, and that's the closest he's come to winning in his 25-career starts at this oval. Truex may finally break through at Texas this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch - An impressive second-place finish at Martinsville before the off-week has the Joe Gibbs Racing star perched comfortably atop the championship driver standings coming to Texas. Busch has scored three runner-up and one third-place finish in his last four events heading into Fort Worth. This particular oval has suited Busch well in the recent past. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has pair of victories and 11 Top-5 finishes (46-percent) at Texas Motor Speedway. It's been one of his better intermediate ovals on the Monster Energy Cup Series circuit. Busch has stood tall the last four race weekends, and he represents the best shot of upsetting the top two contenders this week. That fact places him solidly within our contenders list this week.

Brad Keselowski - This is the low risk/high potential driver of the contenders list this week. Coming off the hard-fought Martinsville Top-10 finish, this team is rolling along well coming into Fort Worth. Keselowski has really upped his performance at the Texas speedway over the last five seasons, and he's racing up front here each time the series visits. In the last seven races at the Fort Worth oval Keselowski has one pole position and four Top-5 finishes. He's been inching closer and closer to his first Texas win with each visit. The Penske Racing star scored sixth- and fifth-place finishes in his two Texas starts last season, and the timing may finally be right for Keselowski to cash in for that first Texas win.

Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning

Kyle Larson - Six races into the season and Larson is not quite off to the start he had hoped. Still, his performances on the larger ovals has been pretty steady. Larson scored ninth- and third-place finishes at Atlanta and Las Vegas, so these ovals have been his strength to this point. The CGR star is coming to yet another intermediate oval this weekend at Texas Motor Speedway, so there's ample evidence to forecast a good performance for the No. 42 Chevrolet team this week. Larson doesn't have an impressive resume at TMS, but his body of work on similar ovals the last three events can't be denied. Finishes of third-, ninth- and third-place on the last three 1.5-mile tracks does not lie. In this event one year ago he started way back in the field and finished runner-up to Jimmie Johnson.

Denny Hamlin - The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has started the season with a lot of speed and consistency. Three Top 5s and four Top 10s has him positioned well within the Top 10 of the driver standings. Hamlin comes to Texas looking to rebound from his sub-par 12th-place Martinsville finish. Texas Motor Speedway has been a good oval over the years for the Joe Gibbs Racing star. He has two wins and 12 Top-10 finishes (50-percent) for his career at this 1.5-mile oval. Hamlin's last start at Texas Motor Speedway last November was a memorable performance. He qualified on the outside pole, led 65 laps and finished third in the AAA Texas 500. All things being equal, it would be hard to imagine Hamlin falling flat at Texas. There's a very good chance of a Top-10 finish this Sunday afternoon.

Joey Logano - Logano is another driver who has used recent Texas outings to reverse historical trends at the oval. The driver of the No. 22 Ford won this event four years ago in a dominant performance. He led 108 laps and set the pace most of the day in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500. It was Logano's first-career win at the Texas track, but almost certainly not his last. He rides a four-race Texas Top-10 streak that includes three Top-3 finishes into this weekend's action. The Penske Racing star has also been impressive in the two intermediate oval dates of 2018 with sixth- and seventh-place finishes at Atlanta and Las Vegas. Logano is a driver to roll with confidence in this 500-mile battle.

Ryan Blaney - The Penske Racing youngster will be visiting an oval he knows all too well this Sunday afternoon. Blaney has made six Monster Energy Cup Series starts at this track, with his last effort netting a Texas career-best sixth-place finish last November. The young driver has impressed this season with a pole position and four Top 10s in the first six races, and a lofty third-place slot in the driver standings coming to Texas. Blaney's last start on a cookie cutter oval netted a pole position and impressive fifth-place finish at Las Vegas. The No. 12 Ford team brings a lot of potential to the table this week at Texas Motor Speedway. Don't overlook him in weekly lineup fantasy leagues.

Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Fort Worth who can provide a solid finish

Chase Elliott - Elliott had a good outing at Martinsville in our last race. He would battle all afternoon to get a hard-fought ninth-place finish in the STP 500. He should be very happy to see an intermediate oval this week. Elliott and the No. 24 team brought good, but not great cars to both Atlanta and Las Vegas, so all eyes will be on this driver at team this week at Fort Worth. The Hendrick Motorsports driver won his first-career Xfinity Series victory at the oval in Fort Worth in 2014, so he knows how to lead laps and get around this 1.5-mile oval. Elliott's 10th-place finish at the similar oval in Atlanta a few weeks ago show that the No. 24 team are good on these intermediate ovals right now, but no serious threat to win. It's notable that Elliott is four-for-four in starts and Top 10s in his brief Cup Series career at the Texas oval.

Jimmie Johnson - Johnson is a seven-time winner at Fort Worth, and while he's suffered some serious struggles of late, Texas Motor Speedway just seems to bring out the best in this star driver. He has struggled out of the gates this season, but if here's a track to get the No. 48 team turned around it's Texas Motor Speedway. Johnson scuffled to a 12th-place finish in our last intermediate oval race at Las Vegas, and we'll likely see the veteran driver scuffle a bit again in Sunday's 500-mile event. However, we expect the results to be much better at Fort Worth. The Hendrick Motorsports star pulled the surprising win in this event one year ago, and he cracks the Top 10 at this track at an astonishing 72-percent rate. Johnson brings a bit of risk to the table, but the seven-time champion loves this oval.

Clint Bowyer - The driver of the No. 14 Ford continues to get better each, week and it culminated with his victory at Martinsville before the off-week. Bowyer's win and three Top 10s in the first six events have him positioned eighth overall in the driver standings entering Texas weekend. The veteran driver has steady stats at this oval with 10-career Top-10 finishes which checks in at a decent 42-percent rate. Bowyer nabbed a brilliant third-place finish at the similar oval in Atlanta recently, so the level of performance right now checks out. The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has some serious momentum coming off the big win, so we wouldn't bet against Bowyer this week. We only see this driver and team getting better as the season rolls on, so Bowyer should outperform some bigger names in Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Erik Jones - Jones' success to start the season has been a bit overshadowed by bigger stars, and bigger stories, but the Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has done a great job filling Matt Kenseth's old ride at JGR. He's nabbed three Top 10s so far and is positioned a respectable 12th in the driver standings coming to Fort Worth this week. Jones has finishes of 11th- and eighth-place at Atlanta and Las Vegas this season, so the speed on intermediate ovals has been pretty good. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has three-career Cup starts at Texas Motor Speedway with finishes of 12th-, 22nd- and 10th-place. The 10th-place came in Jones' last start at the oval last November.

Kurt Busch - The Stewart Haas Stable has been very strong and very consistent to start the season, across all four teams. The race at Atlanta a few weeks ago was ample evidence of this fact. Busch and two of his teammates all cracked the Top 10 in that event, with Aric Almirola coming home a respectable 13th. The driver of the No. 41 Ford has two-career poles, one victory and 17 Top-10 finishes (57-percent) at Texas Motor Speedway. Busch won the pole here last November and peddled to a respectable ninth-place finish in the AAA Texas 500. The notes from that outing should be very fresh in the team's notebook. The SHR veteran is a good outside gamble at winning the pole position this weekend, and a good start at finishing inside the Top 10.

Aric Almirola - Sticking with the Stewart Haas Racing theme, we have to talk about Almirola this week. He's slipped into the No. 10 Ford and looked right at home since the season opening Daytona 500. After two Top 10s and six Top 15s to start the season, Almirola strides into Texas 11th in the driver standings. The veteran driver has an average finish of 14.0 over his last four 1.5-mile oval starts, including our last race at Texas Motor Speedway. He finished 15th there last November with his former No. 43 RPM race team. In 14-career starts at this facility, Almirola has just one Top 10, but also four Top-15 finishes. We expect him to bring his best and fastest car ever to the oval this Sunday. There's a very good chance he posts a career-best Texas finish in Sunday's O'Reilly Auto Parts 500.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Jamie McMurray - The No. 1 Chip Ganassi Racing team is seriously struggling right now. McMurray has no Top-15 finishes in the first six races of the season, and comes limping into Texas after the off-week and 26th-place finish at Martinsville. Texas Motor Speedway has been a decent oval for him over the years with 10 Top 10s in 28 starts, but more recently he's struggled at this facility. Only one of his last four trips to Fort Worth have netted a Top-10 finish. Intermediate ovals to start this early season have been a real puzzle for the No. 1 Chevrolet team. McMurray had 19th- and 36th-place finishes at Atlanta and Las Vegas, and those don't bode well at all for this weekend. It's best to keep McMurray benched for now.

Daniel Suarez - The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is another driver struggling to get traction in this early season. Suarez has been conspicuously missing from the Top 10 so far, with only one Top-10 finish in the first six events. What's more concerning is that the driver of the No. 19 Toyota was practically invisible at the intermediate ovals of Atlanta and Las Vegas a few weeks ago. Finishes of 15th- and 26th-place don't exactly hasten thoughts of fantasy racing success this weekend. This will be Suarez's third-career start at Texas Motor Speedway. He racked up finishes of 19th- and 14th-place here last season. While that's not all bad, it's not terribly impressive either. This is simply a situation with a struggling driver coming to a tough oval, where's he's yet to succeed.

William Byron - The Hendrick Motorsports rookie is still deep in learning mode six races into the season. His last lesson came in short track racing two weeks ago at Martinsville (20th-place). Byron has managed an average finish of 19.2 through these first six events, and that's not terribly impressive. The lack of experience in Cup cars, and Chevy's current struggles with the new Camaro have put Byron at a disadvantage. His finishes of 18th- and 27th-place at Atlanta and Las Vegas are examples of this fact. Likely, they are a good precursor of what to expect at Texas, a low 20s finish. Byron will be making his first-career start in a Cup car at TMS this Sunday, the learning curve will continue.

Darrell Wallace Jr. - It's just April, but it now seems like forever ago that we were celebrating, along with the entire NASCAR world, Wallace's brilliant runner-up finish in the Daytona 500. It's been tough skating since that big finish in the Great American Race. Wallace has been in much the same position as William Byron, only worse. The finishes have not been around the low 20s, frankly, he's been struggling to keep the No. 43 Chevrolet on the lead lap most weekends. He has only one finish inside the Top 20 since Daytona, and two finishes outside the Top 30. The intermediate ovals have been a real puzzle with finishes of 32nd- and 21st-place at Atlanta and Las Vegas. Texas is an unforgiving intermediate oval, and particularly tough on young driver's making their debut there.