This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Wurth 400
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover Motor Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
Dover's "Monster Mile" awaits the NASCAR Cup Series this week in the Wurth 400. The 1.0-mile concrete track can be an unforgiving venue with its harsh surface and high banking punishing equipment and drivers alike. Martin Truex Jr. captured the race win a year ago, yet he remains winless so far in 2024. Fellow Toyota driver Tyler Reddick, who has never scored a top-10 finish at Dover, enters the weekend as the most recent visitor to Victory Lane. Kyle Larson leads the field atop the points with William Byron and Denny Hamlin leading he pack in race victories. With the All-Star Race weekend just three races away, the pressure to solidify a spot in the playoff positions is starting to grow. Ford drivers will particularly be feeling the pressure having gone winless so far in 2024. The Ford contingent will have to buck the trends to reverse their 2024 fortunes this weekend, though. Kevin Harvick is the only Ford driver to have won at Dover in more than 10 years, the most recent of which was 2020.
Key Stats at Dover Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 105
- Winners from pole: 13
- Winners from top-5 starters: 59
- Winners from top-10 starters: 78
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
- Fastest race: 135.734 mph
Previous 10 Dover Winners
2023 - Martin Truex Jr.
2022 - Chase Elliott
2021 - Alex Bowman
2020 II - Kevin Harvick
2020 I - Denny Hamlin
2019 fall - Kyle Larson
2019 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 fall - Chase Elliott
2018 spring - Kevin Harvick
2017 fall - Kyle Busch
Dover's concrete racing surface and steep banking make it a unique 1.0-mile oval, but can draw comparisons to Bristol through both of those characteristics. Those characteristics mean a punishing afternoon for equipment as well as drivers. Brakes and tire failures are relatively common, and drivers must be careful not to abuse their cars or step over the line. Track position is also a highly-valued advantage. Winners typically start within the top 10 spots, but three of the last four have started outside of the top 15. The new generation of car, coupled with Dover's tendency to produce cautions, means teams can move forward if they quickly make the right adjustments. Like at Bristol, drivers will want to settle into a rhythm as quickly as possible, driving with the track and not using up too much of their equipment too early. Given that track position is a critical factor, mistakes on pit road can ruin a driver's afternoon. On the opposite side, getting off pit road quickly in order to have the best track position for restarts can propel a driver to the win. As with other tracks, late cautions can jumble the order, but starting up front remains one of the biggest indicators of potential success on Sunday.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Wurth 400 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,300
William Byron - $11,000
Denny Hamlin - $10,800
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Chase Elliott - $9,900
Ryan Blaney - $9,600
Alex Bowman - $9,300
Kyle Busch - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Joey Logano - $8,800
Ty Gibbs - $8,500
Chris Buescher - $8,000
Brad Keselowski - $7,700
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Josh Berry - $7,300
Chase Briscoe - $7,100
Daniel Suarez - $6,700
Ryan Preece - $6,400
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Wurth 400
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $10,800
Alex Bowman - $9,300
Kyle Busch - $8,000
Brad Keselowski - $7,700
Chase Briscoe - $7,100
Noah Gragson - $6,900
Denny Hamlin's (DK $10,800, FD $13,000) success on tracks like Bristol make him a logical top choice for this week's trip to Dover. Bristol's race was marked by extreme tire wear and Hamlin's ability to make his last longer than anyone else's means he could also have an advantage this week. Dover's surface is also tough and tires, and its high banks are quite similar to Bristol, too. These factors make Hamlin a wise selection. Alex Bowman (DK $9,300, FD $8,200) should also be considered. He also did an excellent job navigating Bristol's challenges to claim a fourth-place finish. Bowman enters the weekend 12th in the playoff standings searching for his first win of the season. He missed last season's Dover stop but finished fifth or better in his last three races at the track, including a win in 2021. Another driver looking for a 2024 win is Kyle Busch (DK $8,000, FD $9,500). A string of bad results have left him out of the playoff positions and needing a turnaround to get the season back on track. Choosing Busch this week comes with risk due to his current struggles, but Dover is a place he could start to improve his situation. He is a three-time winner at the track who led 128 laps in his last two races there. He finished seventh in 2022 and started on pole last season.
The second half of this lineup falls heavily in the Ford camp. Brad Keselowski (DK $7,700, FD $8,500) has been very close to victory recently. He enters this race weekend on the back of two consecutive runner-up finishes and three top-10 finishes in the last four races. Ford has not won at Dover since Harvick in 2020, but Keselowski is a former Dover winner who finished eighth last season. Keselowski is right behind Chase Briscoe (DK $7,100, FD $6,500) in the championship standings, too. Briscoe has quietly been putting together a good start to the season with consistent top-15 finishes. He hasn't finished outside of the top 15 since early March and shows no indication that trend would change at Dover. He finished 13th there two seasons ago and qualified sixth for last year's race. Briscoe's teammate, Noah Gragson (DK $6,900, FD $7,000), may also be worth a look. He is coming off of his best finish of the season last week at Talladega and scored five Xfinity Series top-10 finishes at the track from seven tries. This will be his second Cup Series start there after finishing 34th last season.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,300
Chase Elliott - $9,900
Ty Gibbs - $8,500
Chris Buescher - $8,000
Daniel Suarez - $6,700
Corey Lajoie - $5,600
Last year's Dover winner, Martin Truex Jr. (DK $11,300, FD $13,500), is looking for a repeat this week. He has been in contention to win multiple times so far in 2024 but hasn't gotten the job done. He sits eighth in the standings and was the runner-up finisher at Bristol. That particular result suggests potential for another good finish at Dover, where he has four prior victories. Chase Elliott (DK $9,900, FD $11,000) is another recent Dover winner worth considering this week. He snapped his winless streak two races ago at Texas and was able to finish in the top 10 at Bristol, too. Elliott's average finish from the last three Dover races is 5.0. Like Hamlin and Truex, Ty Gibbs (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) stands a good chance of having upside potential with his Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota this week at Dover. He led 137 laps at Bristol and finished ninth, but has only finished inside the top 15 once in the last four races. He finished third and fifth in two Xfinity Series starts at the track.
A track like Dover should also suit the RFK Racing teammates, and this lineup chooses Chris Buescher (DK $8,000, FD $8,000). His best Dover finishes have in his two most recent starts. Both endeavors ended with top-10 finishes, his only at the circuit. He also started from pole here in 2022. Daniel Suarez (DK $6,700, FD $6,200) carries an attractive price this week. For a low cost, fantasy players get a driver who has scored five top-10 Dover finishes from 11 tries. He crashed out of last year's race and finished outside of the top 20 in four of the last five races leading up to this week's contest, though. Finally, Corey Lajoie (DK $5,600, FD $3,800) finishes the selections as one of the best remaining options on the board. He finished last week's race at Talladega on his side, but it was still a top-20 result. His best Dover results have been with this new car, too. Finishes of 18th and 14th in his last two Dover races show he should be capable of another top-20 again this week.
