This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Martin Truex Jr. dominated Sunday's Goodyear 400 to add a third victory to his 2021 tally. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver first got out front on lap 22 and then barely had to look in his mirrors as he drove away from the field. He was so quick throughout Sunday's race that by the finish he had lapped 28 of the 37-car field. The win keeps Truex as the only driver to have won multiple times in 2021 and was his second at the historic oval. Only Kyle Larson appeared to have the speed necessary to threaten the No. 19 car for the win, but Larson's charge came up short after Truex was able to hold on to the lead and work his way through traffic quickly enough to prevent Larson from making the pass before tire wear forced him to drop off and consolidate a runner-up finish. Early exits for Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola were especially painful in the race for the remaining playoff positions. Busch fell back to 20th in the standings, while Almirola is flirting with falling out of the top 30.
This week the series turns its attention to Dover International Speedway. Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick split the race wins there last season, and both remain winless in 2021. Only 14 races remain before the championship playoffs get underway, and the battle for the final spots in the playoff field is already ratcheting up.
UPGRADE
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex worked his way to
Martin Truex Jr. dominated Sunday's Goodyear 400 to add a third victory to his 2021 tally. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver first got out front on lap 22 and then barely had to look in his mirrors as he drove away from the field. He was so quick throughout Sunday's race that by the finish he had lapped 28 of the 37-car field. The win keeps Truex as the only driver to have won multiple times in 2021 and was his second at the historic oval. Only Kyle Larson appeared to have the speed necessary to threaten the No. 19 car for the win, but Larson's charge came up short after Truex was able to hold on to the lead and work his way through traffic quickly enough to prevent Larson from making the pass before tire wear forced him to drop off and consolidate a runner-up finish. Early exits for Kurt Busch and Aric Almirola were especially painful in the race for the remaining playoff positions. Busch fell back to 20th in the standings, while Almirola is flirting with falling out of the top 30.
This week the series turns its attention to Dover International Speedway. Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick split the race wins there last season, and both remain winless in 2021. Only 14 races remain before the championship playoffs get underway, and the battle for the final spots in the playoff field is already ratcheting up.
UPGRADE
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex worked his way to the front and came out on top after green flag pit stops to win his fifth stage win at Darlington Sunday. By the end of the second stage, he had lapped all the way up to the 14th-place car and swept the stage victories with his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates in tow. No one had won a stage and then won the race at Darlington, but Truex went on to outrun Larson in the closing miles to sweep the day and win his third race of the season. The former champion remains the only multiple-race winner in 2021 and stand alone with three victories so far this season. This week at Dover could be another good one for him. He has three career wins there and finished as the runner up the last three times, too.
Kyle Larson – The only driver seemingly capable of challenging Truex Sunday was Larson. The Hendrick Motorsports driver has had the pace to win on tracks greater than a mile in length all season, and the same was true again at Darlington. However, his car wasn't the greatest from the onset. He and the team worked to develop the car's long-run speed, finished in the points in both stages and then mounted a challenge on Truex in the final miles. That final drive came up just short, however. After closing to within a car length, Larson seemed to lose the grip he needed to uphold the challenge, and Truex's lead expanded again. Larson's second-place finish was his second top-five in the last five races and fifth so far this season.
Kyle Busch – A rear tire failure early in Sunday's Goodyear 400 looked like the end for Busch. He successfully kept the out of control car off of the wall and minimized the damage, however. After pitting for new tires and quick repairs, he returned to the track and held onto the lead lap, which made a big difference in his eventual finish. In the second stage, Busch mounted a comeback and finished second in the segment. He then went on to hold a top-five position the rest of the day and ultimately finished third, one of just nine cars left on the lead lap. That was his fourth top-10 in the last five races, which is a nice way to enter the Dover race weekend. He has three wins on that concrete surface but hasn't finished in the top 10 there since his fall victory in 2018.
Chris Buescher – Darlington's rough surface and fast laps worked well for Roush Fenway Racing's drivers. The team showed its potential early in the season at Homestead and then again at Atlanta. Fantasy players who paid attention jumped to choose Buescher for Sunday's trip to Darlington. They were rewarded for doing so, too. Buescher ran a confident and mistake-free race to come away with a valuable ninth-place finish, his third top-10 this season and second in as many weeks. That type of momentum is keeping him in contention for a spot in the playoffs. He currently holds a 19-point cushion over the cutoff with 14 races remaining in the regular season. His two best Dover finishes came last year, but he has never never finished in the top-10 there.
DOWNGRADE
Aric Almirola – Nothing is going right for Almirola this season. The Stewart Haas Racing driver has had more than his fair share of bad luck and poor results. His car failed inspection twice prior to Sunday's Goodyear 400, which meant he had to start at the rear. While moving through the field, he got loose and was tapped from behind. That slight contact sent him straight into the inside wall and out of the race. Almirola sits well outside of the playoff positions and basically will need a win to get his way into the championship field. Sunday's DNF was his sixth finish outside of the top 20 from 12 races so far this season. He needs a top-15 finish at Dover to regain his footing and reverse his slump.
Cole Custer – Like teammate Almirola, Custer has had a difficult start to the 2021 season. He also hit the same inside wall as Almirola did after getting collected by a loose Anthony Alfredo. The contact sent Custer head-first into the wall in an almost exact replication of his teammate's earlier crash. Darlington's DNF was Custer's third finish outside of the top 20 in the last five races and his seventh of the season so far. While the sophomore driver has an average finish of 10.5 from 2020's two Dover races, his results in 2021 won't give fantasy players the same level of confidence they may have had in him last year. Like Almirola, a solid top-15 finish would be a good outcome for the team to get back on its feet this week.
Kurt Busch – While racing for position in the second stage Sunday at Darlington, Busch got tight, washed up the track, lost control and spun, making contact with the inside wall. The damage was heavy and knocked Busch out of the race, which delivered his fifth finish outside of the top 20 so far this year. Busch has one win from 41 Dover starts but only has one top-10 finish in the last four races there. He crashed out of the spring race last season and finished 13th in the return visit last fall. Sunday's early Darlington exit will not help his playoff chances. He was just outside of the playoff positions before Sunday and lost ground with his early exit. To get back into playoff contention, he will need to start turning in a string of top-10 finishes.
Erik Jones – Jones had never finished outside of the top 10 at Darlington until Sunday He was in contention to continue that streak into the final stage, but contact with the outside wall forced him into an unscheduled stop to pull out the fenders and replace his right-side tires. That put him into a hole from which he was unable to dig out. Jones has one top-five and one other top-10 from eight Dover starts. He has struggled to deliver top-15 finishes this season after the move to Richard Petty Motorsports, which is not what fantasy players need. With each passing week, it seems as though Jones may only be a viable option for selection on circuits where machinery differences are minimized. Those chances includes road courses, short tracks and superspeedways. Dover is none of those.
Brad Keselowski – Sunday's trip to Darlington was a disaster for Keselowski. The Penske Racing driver seemed off the pace from the green flag despite starting on pole. He headed into Sunday's race without crew chief Jeremy Bullins and seemed incapable of making the adjustments that would help stop him falling through the field. After leading the first four laps, he was basically never heard from again and finished a disappointing three laps down in 24th position. He also failed to capture any stage points, making the afternoon especially painful. Luckily, Keselowski has his Talladega win keeping him in the playoff standings, but the team will want to get back on track quickly. That is a possibility with seven consecutive top-15 finishes at Dover heading into this week.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Chase Briscoe – After many quiet weeks in his new Stewart Haas Racing machine, Briscoe finally made a little noise at Darlington. He has been languishing outside of the top 20 in points all season and grabbed his best finish this season two weeks earlier at Talladega. However, a nice outing at Darlington saw him replicate that result and score two 11th-place finishes in the last three races. Those are also his first top-15 finishes this season. Replacing Clint Bowyer in the No. 14 machine is proving to be a bigger challenge than expected, but more drives from the 22nd starting position to top-15 finishes will help build the team's confidence and momentum.
