NASCAR Barometer: Larson Wins Hectic Bristol Race

The final race of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs was a frantic affair at Bristol Motor Speedway under the lights. Kyle Larson scored his first playoff win of the year, and his first at the track, with a strong showing in which he led the most laps and racked up a stage win. The race victory gives him a little extra momentum heading into the round of 12, a round he should be expected to advance from as well. His win didn't come without drama. Hendrick Motorsports put three of its drivers into the top five, while one played a factor in the outcome despite finishing 25th. It happened to be Chase Elliott, who's run-in with Kevin Harvick was arguably the story of the night. The pair raced hard at the front of the field all night, but when Harvick slid up the track and cut Elliott's tire with contact, the defending champion returned to the rack with a score to settle. Elliott unlapped himself from Harvick upon his return to the race and then held Harvick at bay as Larson chased him down. In the end, the victory went to Larson, while Harvick's joint-best finish of the season ended with him being on the receiving end of the crowd's booing.

The playoffs continue this week at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Larson won the spring Las Vegas race and will aim to sweep the races at the track to see himself safely through to the next championship round. Whoever doesn't win this week will not feel entirely comfortable making his way into the final 12, though, with Talladega and the road course at Charlotte looming as the final two races to decide the final eight drivers who will duke it out for the 2021 title.

UPGRADE

Kyle Larson – Larson led a race high 175 laps Saturday night at Richmond to win the final race of the round of 16. He had to track down leader Harvick late in the race but was able to reel him in and make the pass to capture the victory. The win will only serve to further cement the No. 5 team's position as a favorite in the championship battle with six wins on the season. It's been a banner year for him, and now he looks forward to the round of 12. Up first is the venue where he led 103 laps and won earlier this season. In total, he has four top-fives and seven top-10s at the track, which means he could be the one to beat again this week.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin held off Larson to take the first stage win Saturday night. The pair continued their battle through the second stage, where Hamlin finished second, and into the final segment. He raced hard at the front of the field all night until contact with the No. 5 machine cut a tire and sent him into the outside wall. The caution that came out due to the incident gave the team the chance to change the tire and attempt to repair the damage. That was all Hamlin needed, too. He came back in the final laps to finish a confident ninth place. Las Vegas starts the next round of the playoffs, and Hamlin has nine top-10s from 19 starts there. He finished fourth and led 47 laps there earlier this season.

William Byron – Byron has proven in his young career that he knows how to successfully navigate the playoffs to advance further than expected. That is exactly what he has done so far this year, too. He entered Saturday's cut race at Bristol behind the competition and needed something tremendous to reverse his trouble and stay alive in the championship hunt, which is exactly what he did. His third-place finish Saturday night was his first top-five at the track and just his second top-10. It was a much-needed performance, and it earned him a spot among the final 12 with a fresh start in points as he attempts to be among the final eight championship contenders. Byron has two Las Vegas top-10s and will want to get out of the gate strong this week.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney proved himself to be the fastest among the Team Penske teammates again at Bristol. The youngest driver of the team led 45 laps Saturday and was the only Penske driver to finish in the top five. It was impressive considering Bristol hasn't traditionally been one of his better venues. His fourth-place finish Saturday equaled his best at the track and was his fifth top-10 from 12 career starts. He is much better at Las Vegas, though. In 10 starts there he grabbed four top-fives and seven top-10s. Earlier this year he led a lap in a fifth-place finish, too. Blaney's struggle in 2021 has been the team effort. If they can clean up the mistakes they could be good enough to find their way into the final four.

DOWNGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch entered Saturday's race at Bristol as one of the favorites. He had a difficult start to the first round of playoffs and needed a decent finish to secure his spot in the next round. Things were looking good for him throughout the race as he earned stage points in each of the first two segments. Things got sketchy late in the final segment when a flat tire sent him to pit road, though. He exited the pits two laps down to the leaders with little time to recover. Luckily for him, however, his 21st-place finish ended up being enough to see him through to the next round. He'll need a better round this time, and his first chance is in Las Vegas where won in 2009 and finished third earlier this season.

Kurt Busch – An impressive start to the round of 16 wasn't enough to keep Busch alive in the playoffs after a crash at Darlington and a tough night at Bristol. The No. 1 kicked off the first round with a sixth-place at Darlington only to suffer a flat tire and crash out one week later at Richmond. The Richmond crash was the real undoing of Busch's championship hopes. He started at the front and looked to be competitive until the flat tire sent him into the wall and out of the race. Bristol should have been an opportunity for him to recover. Unfortunately, his recent string of poor Bristol results continued Saturday night with a 19th-place finish. That simply was not enough to keep him in championship contention, and he will just race for wins the remainder of the season before joining 23XI Racing in 2022.

Tyler Reddick – Reddick had a respectable 2021 season; just good enough that he narrowly pipped teammate Austin Dillon for the final playoff spot. The No. 8 team's playoff run didn't last long, however. Reddick's struggles at Bristol Saturday night saw him bounced out of the playoffs in the opening round. His average finish from the three playoff races was 15th, which simply is not good enough to be among the final 12. Still, this team continues to build experience and could be a viable fantasy option through the remaining races of the season. One would expect them to be even better in 2022, too. This week may not be one to choose him, however. His average finish from three Las Vegas starts is 26th, but he did lead seven laps there in the spring.

Christopher Bell – On paper Bell should have been one of the drivers to successfully navigate the perils of Bristol to find his way into the next playoff round. It all threatened to come undone once he hit the track. Early in the race he found himself dropped back in the field and was mired deep in traffic, which simply created too much trouble for him to find the traction he needed to advance. He was the lowest placed playoff driver at the end of the race and knows he will have to do better in the round of 12 to remain in the hunt. In the end, his third-place at Richmond was basically enough to see him through, with the other two round finishes being 20th and 29th. He gets a fresh start this week at a track at which he finished seventh in the spring.

Ryan Newman – Newman has been a step behind the competition much of the season, but Bristol should have been a place he could have outperformed. Instead, Newman was the first out under the damaged vehicle policy after hard contact early in the second stage. He has earned two top-fives and five top-10s from the 29 races so far this season but hasn't been as consistent as he and the team would like. His early exit Saturday night was his third DNF of the season. Up next for Newman is Las Vegas where his resume isn't that bad. He has four top-fives and 10 top-10s from 23 starts there and finished 18th in the trip there earlier this season. Newman and Roush Fenway Racing should be considered at superspeedways and rough-surfaced tracks. Las Vegas is neither.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has been a step behind the competition the entire season, and it is understandable that getting so close to the win at Bristol would result in him getting upset when he lost his chance. It may have been his best chance to win all season, but his misstep against Elliott ended up costing him the victory, as the No. 9 car held Harvick in check long enough for teammate Larson to catch up and get the pass completed for the win. Harvick himself is a former champion, but after cutting the defending champion's tire earlier in the race by moving up the track, he made an enemy in Elliott, who then did everything he could to keep Harvick from finally finding the success he has craved. Fantasy owners should be aware of this conflict as the playoffs continue for both drivers.