Merrill Kelly

Merrill Kelly

36-Year-Old PitcherSP
Arizona Diamondbacks
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Before an early shoulder injury sidelined Kelly from mid-April to August, the right-hander was headed for a second consecutive impressive season, posting a 2.19 ERA over four starts. He had less success (4.96 ERA) following his return, but most of the damage was in August, and Kelly was back on form in September. Kelly finished with a greater HR/9 and struck out fewer batters in 2024, but when a pitcher misses four months, one should resist making judgments based on ratios/results and instead focus on the injury, which altered his pitch mix. Kelly threw more cutters and changeups than four-seamers for the first time in his career; however, he pitched well when healthy in April and September, putting him on a path for a normal winter of preparation. The Diamondbacks have confidence that the 36-year-old will return to his 2023 iteration (3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9) and picked up his option. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
Rest of Season From Preseason
#295
ADP
$Signed a two-year, $18 million contract extension with the Diamondbacks in April of 2022. $7 million club option exercised in November of 2024.
Wraps up Cactus League
PArizona Diamondbacks
March 23, 2025
Kelly allowed three runs on five hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings in Saturday's spring start against the Giants.
ANALYSIS
The Giants tagged Kelly for three consecutive home runs in the fourth inning of his final Cactus League start, but the right-hander told Manny Randhawa of MLB.com that this was the best he's felt all camp. The Diamondbacks' rotation order hasn't been set beyond Opening Day starter Zac Gallen, but Kelly is considered to be part of the top three, which also includes Corbin Burnes. That means he'll likely make his next start Thursday or Friday against the Cubs.
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Pitching Stats
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-6%
BAA vs LHP
2023
 
 
-4%
BAA vs LHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2023vs Left .223 521 113 54 102 17 4 17
Since 2023vs Right .233 501 137 34 108 29 0 14
2025vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024vs Left .234 160 23 16 33 6 1 6
2024vs Right .250 140 40 3 34 10 0 5
2023vs Left .218 361 90 38 69 11 3 11
2023vs Right .226 361 97 31 74 19 0 9
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
 
 
-24%
ERA at Home
2025
No Stats
2024
 
 
-8%
ERA on Road
2023
 
 
-36%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2023Home 3.06 1.07 132.1 7 6 0 9.3 3.1 1.1
Since 2023Away 4.01 1.32 119.0 10 3 0 8.5 3.3 1.1
2025Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2025Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2024Home 4.19 1.16 38.2 2 1 0 7.2 2.1 1.6
2024Away 3.86 1.17 35.0 3 0 0 8.2 2.6 1.0
2023Home 2.59 1.02 93.2 5 5 0 10.2 3.5 0.9
2023Away 4.07 1.38 84.0 7 3 0 8.7 3.5 1.2
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Kelly's ratios were nearly equivalent to his breakthrough 2022 season, but he took a different path to get there. Last season, Kelly fanned a career best 25.9 percent of batters he faced, but he also walked them at a 9.6 percent clip, the highest mark of his career. However, the 16.3 percent K-BB% was his best in a full season. Kelly didn't change his pitch mix much, other than throwing a slider a bit and it was effective. His changeup was offering chiefly driving the increase in strikeouts. Despite posting strong ratios in 2022, Kelly wasn't trusted since he didn't miss many bats. Fast forward a year and Kelly is no longer a secret after fanning well more than a batter an inning and enjoying a strong playoff run. He's likely going to be drafted around 100 picks earlier this season, which puts him in risky territory, since that assumes Kelly continues to punch out hitters at the same rate. Don't shy away from Kelly, but don't expect a repeat of last season's newfound dominance.
This past season may go down as a career year for Kelly, but that's not to say he's unworthy of consideration for 2023. It will just be tough for him to repeat that level of run prevention over 200 innings. When he's on, Kelly can keep hitters guessing with his diverse repertoire -- he throws his four-seamer, changeup, cutter, sinker and curveball all at least 13% of the time. The stuff has not translated to strikeouts since Kelly made the jump from the Korea Baseball Organization years ago (career 20.8 K%), but he limits walks and can induce manageable contact for the defense behind him. Now 34 years old, Kelly may be on the verge of some age-related decline. Add in that he was pitching over his skis last season and Kelly seems likely to be overlooked in many leagues. Be ready to cut bait if the performance craters, but Kelly is very much in the mix to stream in favorable matchups to begin the season.
Kelly defied the odds with a successful return following surgery to remedy Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. Successful is relative, meaning Kelly exhibited nearly identical skills to 2019, his last full, healthy campaign. However, those skills translate to a below average pitcher with a pedestrian strikeout rate, supported by a mediocre 9% swinging strike mark. Kelly throws five pitches with only his curve (12.5%) and changeup (17.5%) topping a double-digit swinging strike level, but combined he throws them about one-third of the time. A tweak in mix could miss more bats, but even if it manifested, the impact isn't worth chasing in Kelly's age-34 campaign. Sure, take a shot in draft and hold, but there are better options for a roster spot in standard formats.
Kelly had a decent return to stateside baseball in 2019 after a successful KBO career, and was having a rather nice start to 2020 until something did not feel right five starts into the season. Examinations revealed Thoracic Outlet Syndrome which required surgery in September. The track record of full recovery from the surgery is not great -- just ask Tyson Ross, Matt Harvey, Mike Foltynewicz and Alex Cobb among others. Yet, Arizona still picked up Kelly's $5.25 million option for 2021 believing that Kelly will make a full recovery and be a contributor in some capacity. You do not need to make any sort of investment in the pitcher until you see some positive results from his post-surgery self. A first-year return to a similar skill level is incredibly unlikely.
Kelly, who signed with Arizona last December following a four-year stint in the KBO, led the Diamondbacks with 183.1 innings in 2019, though he struggled with consistency, going 13-14 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.32 WHIP across 32 starts. Kelly allowed too much loud contact (9.5 Barrel% and 42.2 Hard%), which, coupled with his flyball tendencies, resulted in a 1.4 HR/9. He also showed noticeable home/away splits, performing much better at home -- likely due in part to Chase Field's humidor. The righty flashed an uptick in velocity in his first four starts in September, resulting in a 1.00 ERA and 9.3 K/9. His final start of the year was not so pretty, but it was a strong finish overall and that should have him pretty well locked into a rotation spot for 2020. Keep an eye on his velocity in spring training, because if Kelly maintains the increased velo, he could be a significant profit earner as a late-round pick.
Kelly signed with Arizona and will get a chance to win a spot in the starting rotation after three seasons playing in South Korea's top professional league. An eighth-round draft pick by Tampa Bay, he got as far as Triple-A, where he had a 2.76 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 2014, before going overseas. Kelly thrived in the KBO with a 3.80 ERA in four seasons while leading the SK Wyverns to the 2017 championship. His 4.09 ERA from 2017 doesn't look great, but it ranked in the top 10 in a hitter-friendly league, and he had a 9.0 K/9 with outstanding control (2.1 BB/9). Kelly says his velocity improved while in South Korea to the low-90s from the high-80s while in Triple-A. He'll be trying to make a unique transition as few players have moved to Major League Baseball from the KOB, and he's also doing so without any major-league experience. He's a fantasy baseball wild card.
More Fantasy News
Works on slider
PArizona Diamondbacks
March 18, 2025
Kelly allowed three runs on six hits while striking out four over 2.2 innings in Monday's spring start against the Angels.
ANALYSIS
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Scoreless spring outing
PArizona Diamondbacks
March 12, 2025
Kelly allowed five hits while striking out one over 3.1 scoreless innings in Tuesday's spring start against the Royals.
ANALYSIS
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Gets in work Thursday
PArizona Diamondbacks
March 7, 2025
Kelly allowed two runs on four hits and two walks over 2.1 innings while striking out three in Thursday's split-squad start against the Mariners.
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Makes spring debut
PArizona Diamondbacks
March 1, 2025
Kelly allowed one hit and one walk while striking out two over two innings in Friday's spring start against the Royals.
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D-backs pick up option
PArizona Diamondbacks
November 2, 2024
The Diamondbacks exercised Kelly's $7 million club option for 2025 on Saturday, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Could be dealt
PArizona Diamondbacks
November 17, 2024
According to Will Sammon and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, Kelly could be a trade chip for the Diamondbacks this offseason.
ANALYSIS
Arizona is receiving trade interest in its starting pitchers, and Kelly is a logical option to be dealt since he's in the final year of his contract. The right-hander was limited to 13 starts in 2024 due to a shoulder injury and had a 4.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 63:19 K:BB over 73.2 innings.
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