2025 Stats
W-L
7-4
ERA
3.55
WHIP
1.09
K
103
SV
0
Rest-of-Season Projections
2025 Fantasy Outlook
Before an early shoulder injury sidelined Kelly from mid-April to August, the right-hander was headed for a second consecutive impressive season, posting a 2.19 ERA over four starts. He had less success (4.96 ERA) following his return, but most of the damage was in August, and Kelly was back on form in September. Kelly finished with a greater HR/9 and struck out fewer batters in 2024, but when a pitcher misses four months, one should resist making judgments based on ratios/results and instead focus on the injury, which altered his pitch mix. Kelly threw more cutters and changeups than four-seamers for the first time in his career; however, he pitched well when healthy in April and September, putting him on a path for a normal winter of preparation. The Diamondbacks have confidence that the 36-year-old will return to his 2023 iteration (3.29 ERA, 9.5 K/9) and picked up his option. Read Past Outlooks
Signed a two-year, $17 million contract extension with the Diamondbacks in April of 2022. Diamondbacks exercised $7 million team option for 2025 in November of 2024.
Decent in no-decision
Kelly didn't factor into the decision Wednesday against San Francisco, allowing three runs on five hits and three walks with three strikeouts over six innings.
Analysis
Kelly got off to a rough start, allowing a solo homer, a triple and a walk as part of a two-run first inning for the Giants. While he settled in afterward and logged his fourth quality start in six outings, he notched his fewest strikeouts since May 2 and snapped a streak of five straight starts with at least seven Ks. On the year, Kelly owns a 3.55 ERA across 104 innings. He's tentatively scheduled to make his next start in San Diego.
Kelly got off to a rough start, allowing a solo homer, a triple and a walk as part of a two-run first inning for the Giants. While he settled in afterward and logged his fourth quality start in six outings, he notched his fewest strikeouts since May 2 and snapped a streak of five straight starts with at least seven Ks. On the year, Kelly owns a 3.55 ERA across 104 innings. He's tentatively scheduled to make his next start in San Diego.
Pitching Stats
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2025 MLB Game Log
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2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Minor League Game Log
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
91
Last 10 Games
96
Last 5 Games
92
How many pitches does Merrill Kelly generally throw?
1-10
11-20
21-30
31-40
41-50
51-60
61-70
71-80
81-90
91-100
101-110
111-120
121+
What part of the game does Merrill Kelly generally pitch?
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-1%
BAA vs LHP
2025
-8%
BAA vs RHP
| BAA | K | BB | H | HR | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023vs Left | .223 | 167 | 72 | 149 | 25 | |||
| Since 2023vs Right | .225 | 186 | 45 | 145 | 18 | |||
| 2025vs Left | .223 | 54 | 18 | 47 | 8 | |||
| 2025vs Right | .206 | 49 | 11 | 37 | 4 | |||
| 2024vs Left | .234 | 23 | 16 | 33 | 6 | |||
| 2024vs Right | .250 | 40 | 3 | 34 | 5 | |||
| 2023vs Left | .218 | 90 | 38 | 69 | 11 | |||
| 2023vs Right | .226 | 97 | 31 | 74 | 9 | |||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | |||||||
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2023
-19%
ERA at Home
2025
-7%
ERA at Home
| ERA | WHIP | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Since 2023Home | 3.17 | 1.08 | 190.0 | 9.1 | 3.0 | ||||
| Since 2023Away | 3.92 | 1.25 | 165.1 | 8.7 | 2.9 | ||||
| 2025Home | 3.43 | 1.11 | 57.2 | 8.7 | 3.0 | ||||
| 2025Away | 3.69 | 1.06 | 46.1 | 9.1 | 1.9 | ||||
| 2024Home | 4.19 | 1.16 | 38.2 | 7.2 | 2.1 | ||||
| 2024Away | 3.86 | 1.17 | 35.0 | 8.2 | 2.6 | ||||
| 2023Home | 2.59 | 1.02 | 93.2 | 10.2 | 3.5 | ||||
| 2023Away | 4.07 | 1.38 | 84.0 | 8.7 | 3.5 | ||||
| More Splits→ | View More Split Stats | ||||||||
Stat Review
How does Merrill Kelly compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
K/BB
3.55K/9
8.9BB/9
2.5HR/9
1.0Fastball
91.9 mphERA
3.55WHIP
1.09BABIP
.275GB/FB
1.29Left On Base
68.6%Exit Velocity
83.5 mphBarrels/BBE
5.4%Spin Rate
2308 rpmBalls Hit 95+ MPH
28.9%Swinging Strike
11.4%Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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Past Fantasy Outlooks
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
Kelly's ratios were nearly equivalent to his breakthrough 2022 season, but he took a different path to get there. Last season, Kelly fanned a career best 25.9 percent of batters he faced, but he also walked them at a 9.6 percent clip, the highest mark of his career. However, the 16.3 percent K-BB% was his best in a full season. Kelly didn't change his pitch mix much, other than throwing a slider a bit and it was effective. His changeup was offering chiefly driving the increase in strikeouts. Despite posting strong ratios in 2022, Kelly wasn't trusted since he didn't miss many bats. Fast forward a year and Kelly is no longer a secret after fanning well more than a batter an inning and enjoying a strong playoff run. He's likely going to be drafted around 100 picks earlier this season, which puts him in risky territory, since that assumes Kelly continues to punch out hitters at the same rate. Don't shy away from Kelly, but don't expect a repeat of last season's newfound dominance.
More Fantasy News
Handed fourth loss
Kelly (7-4) allowed five runs (three earned) on six hits and a walk while striking out seven over five-plus innings, taking the loss versus the Marlins on Friday.
Analysis
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Strikes out seven in win
Kelly (7-3) allowed three runs (two earned) on six hits and three walks while striking out seven over six innings to earn the win Saturday over the Rockies.
Analysis
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Gives up four runs in loss
Kelly (6-3) took the loss Sunday versus the Padres, allowing four runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out seven over five innings.
Analysis
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Another scoreless start
Kelly allowed four hits and two walks while striking out seven over six scoreless innings in a no-decision versus the Mariners on Monday.
Analysis
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Rebounds with seven shutout innings
Kelly (6-2) earned the win Wednesday against Atlanta after giving up one hit and one walk in seven scoreless innings. He struck out eight.
Analysis
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Latest Fantasy Rumors
Cubs could be interested
Kelly could be a trade target for the Cubs ahead of the deadline, Jim Bowden of The Athletic speculates.
Analysis
There's no question the Cubs need to bolster their rotation if they want to make a deep playoff run in October, especially since Shota Imanaga has yet to return from a hamstring injury and Justin Steele is out for the rest of the season with an elbow problem. Kelly is one of two Arizona pitchers Chicago might target, with Zac Gallen being the other. Outside the shortened 2020 season in which he made only five starts, Kelly is having the best year of his career in 2025 from an ERA perspective. He owns a 3.18 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP across 14 starts and 82 innings.
There's no question the Cubs need to bolster their rotation if they want to make a deep playoff run in October, especially since Shota Imanaga has yet to return from a hamstring injury and Justin Steele is out for the rest of the season with an elbow problem. Kelly is one of two Arizona pitchers Chicago might target, with Zac Gallen being the other. Outside the shortened 2020 season in which he made only five starts, Kelly is having the best year of his career in 2025 from an ERA perspective. He owns a 3.18 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP across 14 starts and 82 innings.