NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Preview: Crowning the Champion

The finale of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series season has arrived. After 35 events of spectacular crashes, dominating performances, and surprise comebacks, we have finally reached the championship-crowning moment of the sport. The drama has been building all season long, and even more so the last several weeks of the playoffs. For several years NASCAR has crowned its champion at Homestead-Miami Speedway, but five seasons ago the sanctioning body moved this championship race to Phoenix Raceway. The Phoenix track in Avondale, Arizona is an irregular "D" shaped oval with very flat banking in the corners of nine to 11 degrees. The straights are completely flat, and very fast as they carry off into the sweeping corners. It is truly a unique facility among those on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, and very fitting that it now determines the series champion. 

Since Phoenix Raceway is so unique, we have a driver set for this race that is unique as well. Certain drivers thrive on the flat oval in the Arizona desert, while some others would rather be just about anywhere else this weekend but Phoenix. However, one theme will be quite clear. Four drivers come to the Arizona desert in a dead-heat for the championship. The format of the playoffs has narrowed the field to Chase Briscoe, Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and William Byron. It all comes down to one race for all the marbles and all four drivers start even at 5,000 points. The stakes and the pressure have never been higher. If anything, the last two weeks have shown us at Talladega and Martinsville, this has been a wild playoff season and anything can happen. The racing has been highly competitive and the fall out has made for some wild action on the track.  So, if for no other reason that this, tune in on Sunday to see what the last chapter in this wild season holds.

For the first time since March, we're racing at Phoenix Raceway. It was almost eight months ago that the NASCAR Cup Series ran in the mid-afternoon in the Arizona desert. Even though it has been a long time since drivers made laps at Phoenix, we can still look at the results from the Shriners Children's 500 for indicators for this weekend. Not only that race, but we'll factor in the last 20 seasons at the Phoenix oval for some ideas of who will run up front this weekend. Current hot streaks will play a part as well in evaluating this weekend's race, but historical stats at this facility are a very valuable tool. Here are the loop stats for the last 40 races at the Phoenix oval.

If anyone hopes to pull a surprise upset in the championship finale, we need to examine each of the four drivers carefully to make that prediction. All four of our championship contenders are past winners at the desert oval. Denny Hamlin (2012, 2019), Chase Briscoe (2022), Kyle Larson (2021) and William Byron (2023). While Hamlin has the most wins and experience at Phoenix, we can't count out the red-hot Byron, coming off his big win at Martinsville this past weekend. He has three victories this season and won the pole position earlier this season at Phoenix Raceway. Byron may have the best odds this weekend of taking the victory and the championship as well. He has near-300 career laps led at Phoenix and finished third- and sixth- in his last two attempts. Don't count out Briscoe either. He was a non-factor at Martinsville last Sunday, finishing 37th-place. However, Briscoe is a three-time winner this season and he was dramatically improved on short tracks in 2025. He's probably the lowest odds of the four drivers to win the championship, but Briscoe has shown real gut, grit and determination this season to advance into the championship round of the playoffs. 

These drivers will be joined by short track specialists Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, Christopher Bell and Chase Elliott in racing for the checkers this weekend. All four have been eliminated from the championship, but they are all looking to end the season with a win and the momentum it would carry into the off-season. One thing is for certain, when the green flag drops at Phoenix Raceway this Sunday afternoon the fireworks will fly as these drivers compete for the big stakes at the desert oval. We'll examine those championship contending teams who are racing for all the marbles this weekend at the Phoenix short track and those who could sneak up and surprise the championship contending teams.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – By virtue of his victory at Martinsville this past weekend, Byron is locked into the championship round and will race for the title on Sunday. Byron has been skilled on the short tracks in 2025. In addition to his Martinsville win he also grabbed a victory at Iowa Speedway, has led over 500 laps, has three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes for a strong 10.4 average finish. Byron's 15 Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway have netted a victory and nine Top-10 finishes (60-percent) so this has been a decent oval for the No. 24 team. The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has one Xfinity Series victory at this small oval (2017) so he knows how to navigate the irregular D-shaped track in the desert. Byron should battle for the win Sunday afternoon in the Arizona desert.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star advanced into the championship round and will once again seek his first-ever Cup Series championship. After 20 years of trying, this may finally be Hamlin's moment of glory. This week he visits one of his better ovals in Phoenix Raceway. Hamlin has great stats at this oval that are worth considering. He has two victories, two runner-up finishes and 23 Top-10 finishes in his Phoenix resume. That works out to a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate. With an impressive average finish of 10.6 at this D-shaped oval, it's clear that the JGR driver likes racing at this tough short track. Hamlin rode to one of his two-career runner-up finishes at Phoenix earlier this season. He'll use that experience well in Sunday's season finale.      

Kyle Larson – Once again Larson will be racing for the championship this Sunday. however, the veteran driver is a three-time winner this season and always a threat to visit victory lane. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event four years ago for his first Phoenix victory and he cracks the Top 5 at this short track at a very strong 46-percent rate. Short tracks have been among his best ovals this season with one win, five Top 5's and 424 laps led in the nine events on tracks one-mile in size or less. Momentum may not be on Larson's side this weekend as he has not won on a short track since the spring, but let's not forget he just registered a strong fifth-place finish at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday. 

Ryan Blaney – Despite being eliminated from the championship battle at Martinsville this past week, we cannot overlook the Penske Racing star as being a spoiler this weekend in Arizona. Blaney has 17-career starts at Phoenix Raceway with 13 Top-10 finishes to his credit. That works out to a strong 68-percent rate and 11.4 average finish for the youngster at the Arizona oval. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has improved tremendously on short tracks during the last three seasons. Blaney has one win and six Top-5 finishes on the small ovals in 2025. The veteran driver has finished runner-up in four of his last six Phoenix starts. He will very likely be the man to beat Sunday in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.     

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Briscoe – The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is participating in his first-ever championship round of the NASCAR playoffs. The pressure will be intense but Briscoe has the tools to succeed. He won at Phoenix Raceway three seasons ago and he sports a reasonable 44-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel. This driver and team have been consistent on short tracks in 2025 with two runner-up finishes, 240 laps led, a 67-percent Top-10 rate and 13.4 average finish. Briscoe and crew chief, James Small, likely have some very good notes from their outing in March at Phoenix Raceway (ninth-place) and will exploit them to good effect in Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster won the spring event at Phoenix Raceway, so he'll be on everyone's radar screens this weekend for the possible season sweep of the desert oval. Bell now has seven Top-10 finishes in 11-career starts at the Phoenix track and that works out to a strong 64-percent rate. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota had a solid outing at Martinsville this past weekend but was eliminated from the championship round of the playoffs based on points. Still, Bell has been consistent and impressive on the short tracks this season. With six Top 10's in nine events on the one-mile and less in size ovals, the 67-percent Top-10 rate is difficult to ignore.      

Chase Elliott – Elliott has been a consistent short track performer in 2025 and is coming off Top-5 performances at both Loudon and Martinsville during the playoffs. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran has racked up three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes on the bullrings this season, and that's a respectable level of performance. Elliott won't be racing for a championship this weekend, but that shouldn't deter him from his current short track momentum. He's a one-time Phoenix winner and has a steady 56-percent Top-10 rate at the Arizona short track. Elliott has Top 10's in his last two starts at the Desert Jewel. He should end the season on a very high note.

Ross Chastain – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has been fair this season on the short tracks and rides a two-race short track Top-10 streak into the final event of the season after his fourth-place effort at Martinsville this past Sunday. Chastain's big boost in fantasy value this weekend lies in his recent success at the Desert Jewel. He's a one-time winner at Phoenix, this event two years ago, and he finished runner-up here in 2022. Chastain has carved out four Top-10 finishes in his last seven Phoenix starts and he's led 158 laps during that span. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet was a steady 11th-place earlier this season at the Arizona short track. While Chastain may not be battling for the championship, he's one of a handful of playoff outsiders that could jump up and surprise this weekend.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Phoenix & solid upside

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star was unable to advance into the championship round of the playoffs after Martinsville Speedway. That's the bad news. The good news is that short tracks have been a consistent niche for Logano this season with six Top 10's (67-percent) and a 9.9 average finish and he is coming off a solid eighth-place effort at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday. Logano is a four-time winner at Phoenix Raceway (2016, 2020, 2022 and 2024) and his near 1,100 laps led here make him one of the most successful drivers at Phoenix Raceway in recent seasons. The driver of the No. 22 Ford owns a strong 52-percent Top-10 rate at the Desert Jewel, so we should see a gutsy performance from Logano. However, we don't feel he'll be in top contention to win.

Chris Buescher – Buescher has been inconsistent on the short tracks in the 2025 campaign so we have slotted him the sleepers list this week. He has earned two Top-10 finishes on ovals one-mile in size and less. That works out to a subpar 22-percent Top-10 rate and 19.2 average finish on the bullrings. Phoenix Raceway hasn't held much career-long success for this driver and team, but Buescher's most recent trips to the Arizona desert have yielded a four-race Top-10 streak, including a fifth-place finish in the spring of this year. Those are hopeful performances and when combined with Buescher's improved racing of late on short tracks, likely a good sign that he's a Top-10 finisher in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race. 

Ryan Preece – The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver is looking to continue a strong end to the season and it should include another solid effort at Phoenix Raceway this weekend. Preece is coming off short track efforts of 14th- and sixth-place at Loudon and Martinsville recently and he's discovered some late-season fantasy racing value. The driver of the No. 60 Ford has 12-career starts at Phoenix Raceway and not too much to show for, however, he did post 34 laps led and a decent 15th-place finish in March's Shriners Childrens 500. That's one of three Top-15 efforts he's recorded in his last five Phoenix starts. Preece and the No. 60 team are trending in the right direction and they have a solid effort at Phoenix from earlier this season that they can build on Sunday afternoon.       

Tyler Reddick – Reddick hasn't been the best on short tracks this season with an 18.2 average finish and just four Top-15 finishes. However, he just posted his best short track effort of the season at Martinsville Speedway last Sunday, coming home a respectable 11th-place in the Xfinity 500. Phoenix Raceway isn't his best short track (36-percent Top-10 rate, 17.0 average finish). Still, most of his success has come at the oval since the 2022 season. Reddick has racked up three Top 10's in his last five starts for a good 60-percent rate and well above his career mark here. The No. 45 Toyota team is showing some signs of life after not advancing deep into the playoffs and Reddick will want to end this season on a good note, looking to next year.  

Josh Berry – The Wood Brothers Racing veteran has been pedestrian on the short tracks this season, but closer examination shows he's been improving on them of late. A runner-up finish at Loudon a few weeks ago was followed by a steady 10th-place finish at Martinsville Speedway this past Sunday. Berry now has three Top 10's in his last four short track starts. That's a good sign heading to Phoenix Raceway this week. Berry qualified a strong fourth on the starting grid here in March and pushed his No. 21 Ford to a strong fourth-place finish in the Shriners Childrens 500. His two Top 10's in four-career starts at Phoenix Raceway speak to his confidence and ability at racing this challenging oval. Berry should have a lot of upside in the Cup Series Championship Race.

Alex Bowman – With a strong seventh-place finish at Phoenix Raceway in the spring, Bowman posted just his third-career Top 10 at the Arizona short track. To be completely honest, the Hendrick Motorsports veteran has pedestrian stats at Phoenix Raceway. The 21.2 average finish and 15-percent Top-10 rate are spread across 20 starts. However, Bowman has had a solid season on the short tracks with a 56-percent Top-10 rate and sound 14.3 average finish. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet was eliminated from the playoffs weeks ago but that won't change his grit and determination to end the season on a positive note. Bowman should be one of the drivers in or around the Top 10 at the checkered flag Sunday afternoon.    

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ty Gibbs – Gibbs has just five-career Cup Series starts at Phoenix Raceway but they've been filled with struggles and challenges. The driver of the No. 54 Toyota has crashed out of his last two starts at the Desert Jewel and that has dropped his Top-10 rate there to 20-percent and average finish to just 23.4. Gibbs has been hit-or-miss on short tracks in 2025. His 33-percent Top-10 rate and 15.8 average finish are off the marks we'd like to see in a fantasy racing worthy driver. Gibbs best tracks this season have been the superspeedways and road circuits. It's best to bench him for this last short track race of the season.   

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The superspeedway specialist is nearly always a fantasy fade when we visit one of the series' short tracks. Stenhouse has no Top 10's this season on the bullrings and he's collected only one Top 20 in those nine starts. The 24.0 average finish across the 2025 season on the small ovals should give us all caution. As for Phoenix Raceway, the veteran driver has 25-career starts in the Arizona desert and only two Top-10 finishes (8-percent) to account for. That works out to a 22.0 average finish which is nearly head on the 21st-place finish he recorded there in March of this season. Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team are not due any fantasy consideration in the NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race.       

Kyle Busch – Perhaps no other "star driver" has struggled more this season than Busch. We don't expect a reversal in the final race of the 2025 campaign. Last week at Martinsville, he labored to a subpar 13th-place finish. That performance was emblematic of the struggles Busch and his team have had on bullrings this season. Busch has just one Top-10 finish in nine starts this season on short tracks and an uninspiring 16.1 average finish. Even though Busch has outstanding career numbers at Phoenix Raceway (3 wins, 27 Top 10's), he's only managed one Top 10 there in his last four Phoenix starts. That is not an encouraging statistic to say the least.                       

Bubba Wallace – With just a 20-percent Top-10 rate at Phoenix Raceway and 19.6 career average finish at the Desert Jewel, Wallace has his issues with this track. He did race to a rare Top-10 finish there in this event one year ago, but that has been the last time Wallace visited the Top 10 in Arizona. The 23XI Racing veteran has had his struggles on short tracks in 2025 with a 33-percent Top-10 rate in nine starts and disappointing 18.9 average finish. This past weekend at Martinsville Speedway was a poor last look heading into the season finale. Wallace struggled to qualify 21st on the grid and struggled to an 18th-place finish in the Xfinity 500 last Sunday. It appears this driver and team are ready for this season to conclude and with all haste.