NASCAR Barometer: Harvick Dominates Again

Kevin Harvick made the final miles of Sunday's Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway a boring affair as he took the lead and then proceeded to march through the field on his way to claim his second victory of the year. Martin Truex Jr. won the first two stages of the race only for Harvick to perfect his setup and drive away from the field in the final segment of the race. The win was Harvick's third at the 1.5-mile oval and makes him one of the most consistent drivers this year as the season marches into its summer stretch. Harvick led an impressive 151 of Sunday's 325 laps compared to Truex who led just 65. 

The NASCAR Cup series drivers and teams now find themselves with another quick turnaround this week as they head to Martinsville Speedway for the first Cup series night race at the circuit. The teams will face 500 laps at the flat short track, which could reignite some of the tensions fantasy owners have watched simmer since racing returned last month. Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. won the races at the track last season.

UPGRADE

Kevin Harvick – Harvick demonstrated on Sunday exactly why he is a NASCAR Cup series champion. The veteran came into Sunday's race in Atlanta as one of the favorites, raced up front through the early miles, and then came forward to the lead in the final segment with the race win on the line. Through that final segment there was no one else on track with any chance of catching him, and he went on to win the race with a very comfortable margin. The win was his second of the season and his third in Atlanta. Now his sights must firmly be set on preparing for another championship battle. Harvick won at Martinsville in 2011 and has five top-10 finishes at the track from his last 10 tries.

Ryan Blaney - Blaney seems to have rediscovered the speed he showed prior to NASCAR stopping racing for the pandemic. The Penske Racing driver didn't have the luck he needed to win a race or two prior to the stoppage, but has now rediscovered his form and could come into contention for a race win nearly any week now. He raced consistently inside the top 10 and top five throughout Sunday's 500 miles around Atlanta Motor Speedway and looks likely to score a win at some point this season. His top-five finish in Atlanta was his fourth of the season. He has four top-10 finishes from eight career Martinsville starts, including fourth and fifth in the last two races at the track.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex won his first stages of the season in the opening segments of Sunday's race in Atlanta,  but couldn't hold a candle to Harvick in the final stage. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has done all he can to get on the same page with his new crew chief and work to overcome the speed deficit the Toyota drivers have had so far this season. All in all it was a valuable day for Truex as he worked his way into another top-five finish. Collecting those finishes en route to securing a win of two this season will put him into championship contention, which is all he needs. Truex spent a long time working to earn his first short-track win, but he did in 2019. He has one Martinsville victory and finished eighth or better in eight of his last 10 visits to the track.

Kurt Busch – Busch failed pre-race inspection on Sunday and was forced to start at the back of the pack as a punishment. The team took the penalty in stride and worked hard on the handling to give Busch the car he needed to move through the field. By the time the final stage rolled around, Busch had made his way into the top 10 and the inspection penalty was nothing but a memory. Busch has two Martinsville wins from 2002 and 2014. He finished 12th or better in each of his last four visits to the circuit, too. He has top-10 finishes in each of the last four races and is rapidly becoming one of the drivers fantasy owners can rely on this season to score a top-10 finish regardless of track or starting position. 

Denny Hamlin - We've all heard and seen how Toyota does not have the power advantage that they enjoyed last season. That hasn't stopped Denny Hamlin from winning two races and picking up five top-five finishes so far this season, though. Despite not enjoying the speed advantage Joe Gibbs Racing had a year ago Hamlin continues to show that he is a driver that is capable of winning nearly every week. His fifth-place finish on Sunday was his fifth top-five finish of the season and his third in the last five races. Denny Hamlin remains the driver fantasy owners should choose among the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates. He has five Martinsville wins, too. With finishes of 12th or better in each of the last five races at that track he should be one fantasy owners flock to again this week.

DOWNGRADE

William Byron – Byron wiggled and drifted up into the outside wall following the competition caution. He spent significant time on pit road fixing the damage and was six laps down by the time only 50 laps were complete in the 500-mile race. He is working to consolidate a spot in the playoffs but finishes like Sunday's will not go far in helping him achieve that goal. He was just outside of playoff positions heading into Sunday's race and the problems he dealt with throughout the afternoon only served to make that hill a bit steeper for him to climb the remainder of the season. Byron finished as the runner up in last fall's visit to Martinsville, but his best finish in his three starts at the track prior to that was just 20th.

Erik Jones – A flat tire sent Jones to pit road just before the finish of the second stage, leaving him with a hole to climb out of to recover a top finish. He never recovered from that problem and went on to finish outside the top 20 in a frustrating afternoon. It was the second time in three races and the fourth time this season that the young driver has failed to finish in the top 20 and that makes claiming a spot in the playoffs a more difficult proposition. While he has four top-10s this season consistency remains his problem. Being able to deliver top-10 finishes each week will give him the boost he needs to be in the championship battle at the end of the season. Jones has not finished in the top 10 in any of his six career Martinsville starts in the series. His best finish at the track came in his debut when he finished 12th after starting 15th.

Clint Bowyer – Bowyer showed speed capable of racing for the win in Sunday's race in Atlanta. However, luck was not on his side as he dealt with right-rear tire issues throughout the afternoon on long runs. The team was not able to make big enough adjustments to cure the problem he was dealing with and was sent to pit road three times unexpectedly due to pushing the tire over its limits through the afternoon. Bowyer won at Martinsville in 2018 but only finished in the top 10 at the track once since then. He was 35th in his last visit to the circuit due to an issue with the track bar. Bowyer may get a victory at some point this season, and should still remain a threat for a spot in the playoffs, but needs to cure the inconsistency we've seen since the start of the season before becoming a truly reliable fantasy option.

Matt DiBenedetto – DiBenedetto should have had a much more prosperous outing at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday considering the pace he has shown throughout NASCAR's return to racing. A shredded tire pushed him even further down the order late in the race as Kevin Harvick was marauding through the field while taking no prisoners. DiBendetto has zero top-10 finishes from 10 career Martinsville starts in the series. His best result at the circuit was 16th, which came just last season. DiBenedetto should be battling for a spot in the playoffs this season. He has shown the speed and capability of making his way into that elite group, but fantasy owners will need to remain picky in the races they choose him. Wednesday's Martinsville's race may not be the time to do so.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Austin Dillon – Austin Dillon hasn't shown the race-winning prowess that would put him high on fantasy radars yet this season, but he continues to deliver respectable race finishes nearly each week regardless of the circumstances. He started Sunday's race in Atlanta in 16th position and raced around the top 15 throughout the 500 miles to finish in 11th place. That result was his fourth consecutive top-15 finish and has put him into playoff contention. If this team can continue to deliver similar results through the remainder of the season Dillon will find himself in the championship battle where anything can happen. Martinsville isn't his bets circuit,but fantasy players can probably expect another top-15 from him regardless.