NASCAR Barometer: Hamlin Wins Playoff Opener

Denny Hamlin earned his long-awaited first win of 2021 at the perfect time in Sunday's Southern 500. It was the first race of the 2021 championship playoffs, which sends the No. 11 machine right on through to the round of 12 regardless of what happens in the next two races. Hamlin nearly swept the weekend with a strong showing in Saturday's Xfinity Series race, too. Were it not for a late penalty in Saturday's race he might have left the track with two victories in his pocket. His performance Sunday was not to be denied, however. He won the opening stage and then held Kyle Larson at bay in the final miles to score his first, much-deserved, victory in 2021. 

The race was a rough one for much of the championship field. Seven of the 16 playoff drivers finished in the top 10, but four finished lower than 30th. Alex Bowman, Kyle Busch, William Byron and Michael McDowell all had terrible nights and leave the first race of the round of 16 behind the cutoff line. Richmond Raceway will give them a chance to recover before Bristol determines the field for the round of 12, but none of those drivers have much margin to have another bad race. Other than Hamlin, and maybe Kyle Larson, no driver will feel entirely confident with two short-tracks ahead. A slim 26 points separates Kurt Busch in fourth from Tyler Reddick and Bowman straddling the elimination cutline.

UPGRADE

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin used Saturday's Xfinity Series race to get some track time ahead of Sunday's playoff race. That move might have been a good one because he was quick Saturday and then brought that speed right through into Sunday, winning the opening stage ahead of Kyle Larson. The No. 11 team then went on to maintain that pace throughout the remainder of the race, bettering the field on the final restarts to keep the car at the front of the field throughout the majority of the final stage. That was all Hamlin needed to seal the deal on his first win of the season, one that put him safely through to the next playoff round. Hamlin has three Richmond victories and led 207 laps in a runner-up finish there earlier this season, too. 

Kyle Larson – Larson had a great car the first two stages of Sunday's Southern 500 and made his way out front to dominate the second stage. He secured that segment win and picked up a valuable playoff point by doing so. The stage was set for a battle between Larson and Hamlin in the final segment for the win. However, after a few restarts, it was clear Larson would need something special to beat the No. 11 to the finish. Larson nearly got that special something in the final corner with a banzai move that got him to Hamlin's bumper but not beyond, and Hamlin got the victory. Larson has one Richmond victory from 2017 but struggled a bit at the track earlier this year with an 18th-place finish. He has five top-10s from 13 career starts at the track.

Martin Truex Jr. – Sunday at Richmond might have been a night to celebrate for Truex and team, but a late pit penalty sent him to the back of the longest line on the final restart. The mistake was enough to keep him from the win. Had he not had the penalty, he would have lined up at the front of the field and been in position to race for the win. Instead, he spent the final laps working his way through traffic to get as far forward as possible, ultimately finishing fourth. Still, on a night where so many playoff drivers suffered problems, it was a good result. Truex now enters Richmond, a track at which he won back-to-back races in 2019, fourth in the standings with a 36-point gap back to Reddick in 12th.

Kevin Harvick – Despite not having the pace of many of the championship contenders throughout the season, Harvick put himself in a nice position for the first round of championship eliminations with his fifth-place finish Sunday night at Darlington. The former champion started ninth and actually led 20 laps en route to that finish, despite not being one of the fastest on the track. It was a championship type of night where the team got the job done despite limitations. As a result, Harvick jumped to seventh in the standings with two more short-track races to go before the next round of eliminations get underway. Harvick has an attractive Richmond resume with three victories and 26 top-10s from 40 starts. 

Kurt Busch – Busch was another former champion who delivered an ideal start to the 2021 playoffs. The team started the Southern 500 with plenty of speed. Busch was a permanent fixture inside the top 10 throughout the race and made very few mistakes. The performance was exactly what he and the team needed to set themselves up to advance from the first round of eliminations. His sixth-place finish was fifth among the playoff contenders and leaves Busch fourth in the standings with Richmond and Bristol left to navigate for this round. Busch has two Richmond victories to his credit and finished 13th there earlier this season. He hasn't finished outside of the top 20 there since 2014.

DOWNGRADE

Michael McDowell – McDowell may have had an excellent start to the season, but he sure didn't have the start to the playoffs he wanted. The Daytona 500 winner lost control and smashed hard into the inside wall just after the competition caution. The damage to his car was terminal, and he now faces a must-win scenario if he hopes to advance beyond the first round of playoff eliminations. It's going to be a difficult proposition, considering he only has one career win, which is what got him into the playoffs to begin with. He will have to get it done at Richmond or Bristol if he wants to advance. He has one top 10 at Bristol but none at Richmond.

Alex Bowman – Bowman was the first of the playoff contenders to have trouble at Darlington. The Hendrick Motorsports driver crushed the wall early, which led to a flat front tire a few laps later. That flat sent him into the wall, leaving him with damage the team would have to work on the rest of the night to overcome. Their work kept the car on the track for a 26th-place finish on a night many of the playoff contenders encountered trouble. He will enter this week's race at Richmond just behind the cutline, 13th in the championship standings. Bowman won at Richmond earlier this season from the 24th starting position, which was his second top-10 finish there in a row.

Kyle Busch – Shortly after the second stage began, Busch and Austin Dillon made slight contact. The tap was enough to send Busch sideways into the outside wall. He picked up significant rear-end damage and drove the car directly to the garage and out of the race. Not finishing Sunday night's race was a big blow to his playoff hopes, and Busch now has to navigate a razor-thin margin at Richmond and Bristol to ensure he advances to the next round of elimination races. First up is Richmond, where he has found plenty of success. With six track wins and no finishes outside of the top 10 in his last seven visits there, he should have a chance to turn things around.

William Byron – Byron was yet another playoff contender who did not get the playoff start for which he had hoped. The Hendrick Motorsports driver was caught up with teammate Bowman's incident early in the race. The team made repairs to the side of the car, which was enough to enable Byron to get back into the top 10. The night looked promising for him after that, but a left-front tire failure sent him hurtling into the outside wall and out of the race. Byron has a history of successfully navigating the early rounds of the playoffs, but this could be the first time he has ever faced such adversity out of the gate. He has just one top-10 finish at Richmond, which was earlier this year when he finished seventh.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Ross Chastain – Chastain had the speed to contend for the victory Sunday, an ability usually reserved for the top 16 playoff contenders. Chastain, like contender teammate Kurt Busch, was a fixture in the top 10 throughout Sunday's 500-mile race. His pace nearly put him in contact with Hamlin to battle for the win, but a tight battle with Larson left him fighting for grip and happy to hold off Truex for a third-place finish. It was Chastain's best finish since Nashville and his third top-five of the year. Chastain is looking to send Chip Ganassi Racing out of NASCAR's top series with wins before he transitions to Trackhouse Racing for the 2022 season.