NASCAR Barometer: Hamlin Wins in Miami

After multiple stops and starts for weather Sunday evening at Homestead-Miami Speedway, Denny Hamlin raced to a near dominating victory in the Dixie Vodka 400. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver spent much of the night battling with other quick drivers, but in the end no one had the speed to challenge him as he pulled away in the final 30 laps after winning both opening stages. The win was Hamlin's third of the season and came with impressive finishes from rookies Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell. Both drivers scored their best finishes in the series.

Talladega Superspeedway is on tap for this weekend with no midweek race on the schedule. Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney won the two visits to that track last season, and both drivers finished in the top five on Sunday. Ford-powered drivers have won nine of the last 11 races at the track with Chevrolet taking two. Toyota has not won at the track since Denny Hamlin took the checkered flag in 2014.

UPGRADE

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin backed up his Homestead iRacing win during the racing shutdown with the actual race win this past weekend in the Dixie Vodka 400. He battled with Blaney for the first segment win of the night after multiple delays for poor weather and then went on to sweep both stages before claiming the overall win, too. Sunday's race was the first with crew chief Chris Gabehart since he and three others were suspended for four races after ballast fell from the car. Hamlin has one Talladega win from 2014 and has three finishes of sixth or better at the track from the last five races. He has been consistently quick all season and should be again this week.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney may be the fastest car yet to win in 2020. He put together another strong showing in Sunday's start-and-stop Dixie Vodka 400, battling for the lead throughout the night, nearly capturing stage wins, and ultimately finishing the race in third position. That finish was his fifth finish in the top four from the last six races. It doesn't seem to matter what type of track the series visits, Blaney has risen to the top on all of them. Fantasy owners should recall that Blaney won last fall at Talladega and finished second in this year's Daytona 500. He has proven to be an excellent driver in the draft and can navigate his way to the finish of these types of races. He should be a top pick again this week.

Chase Elliott – Elliott's performances so far this season suggest he could be one of the main contenders to decide the season championship. He was quick again Sunday in Homestead and was in position to have a shot at the win as he battled with Hamlin late in the running. In the end, he was unable to hold off the Joe Gibbs Racing driver and admitted after the race that he needed to do a better job getting through lapped traffic. He will have a lot of traffic to deal with on Sunday as pack racing returns at Talladega Superspeedway. Elliott won there last spring. He started from pole in the fall race and has four top-10s from eight series starts at the superspeedway.

Christopher Bell - Bell picked up a series-best finish Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The rookie driver finished eighth in an impressive performance for the Leavine Family Racing driver. Making things even more impressive is that the finish was his third top-10 finish of the season so far after finishing ninth twice prior. Sunday will be Bell's first series start at Talladega. He started the season off in Daytona finishing ninth in his qualifying race and then went on to finish 21st in the actual race. While Bell might not make a convincing choice this week depending on his cost, as the series revisits circuits later in the year, we could see his fantasy value rise with more experience. Bell remains a very exciting driver to watch every week, however.

Aric Almirola – Almirola scored his first top-five of the season Sunday night in Homestead. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver had a fast car throughout Sunday's race and ended a five-race skid of results where he failed to finish better than 15th. He traditionally has been a consistent finisher for fantasy rosters but has struggled thus far in 2020 with relatively inconsistent results. Almirola is often a threat at Daytona and Talladega, however. He won the fall race at the Alabama superspeedway in 2018 and has amassed a string of seven straight top-10 finishes at the track heading into this weekend's event. He sits 13th in the playoff standings and needs to continue finishing inside the top-15 and top-10 in order to stay there.

DOWNGRADE

Ryan Newman – An early spin foreshadowed the trouble Newman would have the rest of the night in Miami. The veteran brought out the first caution of the race with a spin that sent him to pit road for fresh tires and then he dealt with other issues including contact with Joey Logano. By the time the race distance was complete he was four laps down to the leaders and in 30th position. That finish was the second outside of the top 20 for him this season. Fantasy owners will remember how Newman's last superspeedway race ended. He hasn't shown ill effects of that massive crash since returning, though. Newman has traditionally been a good option on these tracks but some caution should be observed this week.

Joey Logano – Logano offered no favors despite being lapped by the leaders Sunday in Homestead. Racing Chase Elliott hard, many would say Logano ruined Elliott's chances to win. After starting the race at the front and leading 27 laps the team battled a tight condition and damage to the front of Logano's machine as they slipped backward in the running order. Logano finished the night in 27th position but still proved to be a factor in the finish as he raced Elliott hard to avoid going down two laps. He ultimately lost that battle and now must focus on Talladega. He has three wins at the track and has only finished worse than 11th twice in the last nine races at the superspeedway.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick was one of the drivers expected to have a top finish at Homestead last week, but trouble on pit road ruined his race. After starting the race seventh, he failed to lead any laps and finished a lap down in 26th position. Trouble on pit road was the culprit, as damage to the rear of his car forced him into an extra stop under caution to make repairs. It was a rare off night for the No. 4 team and the worst finish of the season for Harvick. In reality, though, Harvick is on his worst run of the season with three finishes out of the last four races outside of the top 10. He did win that one other race, but consistent top-10s appear to be a challenge. Harvick has one Talladega win from 2010 and just one top-10 from the last six races at the track.

Erik Jones – The slow start to 2020 continued for Jones in Homestead. A loose wheel caused him trouble early in the race. He struggled to overcome that issue and spent the remainder of the night racing outside of the top 20, ending the race in 21st position and a lap down to the leaders. That was the fourth finish of 20th or lower for Jones from the last five races. He is outside of the playoff standings and eight points behind Austin Dillon in the final spot. Jones is having a tough season with just four top-10 finishes from 12 races. While Talladega could prove to be a turnaround opportunity for him, Jones only has one top-10 at the track and has crashed out of four of his six starts. Fantasy owners should tread cautiously with him until this poor run of form ends.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Tyler Reddick – Fantasy owners who are familiar with Reddick's statistics at Homestead-Miami Speedway wouldn't say his race on Sunday was a surprise, but his fourth-place finish was one of the more impressive stories of the night. Reddick won back-to-back races at Homestead in the Xfinity series and this week had the opportunity to try his hand at the track in Cup competition. He did not disappoint. Reddick raced inside the top five all night, making zero mistakes, and leading three laps to be the highest-finishing rookie in the field. That effort put Reddick just two points behind Austin Dillon in the final playoff position. Fantasy owners shouldn't expect that type of finish this week but he did finish ninth in his Daytona qualifying race in February.