This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Sunday's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway quickly became a tire-management battle as the return to the track's concrete surface put extra on the Goodyear tires. The heavy wear limited racing to the bottom portion of the groove, and tires quickly failed after 40 to 50 laps on them. Multiple flat tires, spins, and stops for failing rubber generated a hectic race with nine cautions for nearly 100 laps and 54 official lead changes. Managing all of those factors best was Denny Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing more generally. Hamlin used the havoc to consolidate the lead in the final stage, holding off teammate Martin Truex Jr. for the race win, after Ty Gibbs swept the first two stage wins of the day. It was Hamlin's first win of the season, jumpstarting his championship hopes, and the second in a row for Toyota and the JGR organization. The biggest story will be the inability of the tires to survive the race, though. NASCAR and Goodyear, in partnership with the teams and the track, have to assess what caused the unexpected wear and make adjustments to avoid a repeat of the situation.
Everyone has to focus ahead quickly this week, though. A trip to the Circuit of the Americas is on tap this week for the first road course race of the season. Tyler Reddick won last year's race, but Chevrolet won the first two series races there. Will the current Toyota surge continue, or can Chevrolet reclaim their early-season
Sunday's Food City 500 at Bristol Motor Speedway quickly became a tire-management battle as the return to the track's concrete surface put extra on the Goodyear tires. The heavy wear limited racing to the bottom portion of the groove, and tires quickly failed after 40 to 50 laps on them. Multiple flat tires, spins, and stops for failing rubber generated a hectic race with nine cautions for nearly 100 laps and 54 official lead changes. Managing all of those factors best was Denny Hamlin and Joe Gibbs Racing more generally. Hamlin used the havoc to consolidate the lead in the final stage, holding off teammate Martin Truex Jr. for the race win, after Ty Gibbs swept the first two stage wins of the day. It was Hamlin's first win of the season, jumpstarting his championship hopes, and the second in a row for Toyota and the JGR organization. The biggest story will be the inability of the tires to survive the race, though. NASCAR and Goodyear, in partnership with the teams and the track, have to assess what caused the unexpected wear and make adjustments to avoid a repeat of the situation.
Everyone has to focus ahead quickly this week, though. A trip to the Circuit of the Americas is on tap this week for the first road course race of the season. Tyler Reddick won last year's race, but Chevrolet won the first two series races there. Will the current Toyota surge continue, or can Chevrolet reclaim their early-season advantage?
UPGRADE
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin managed his tires the best through the final stage to avoid trouble and lead teammate Martin Truex Jr. to the checkered flag for his first victory of the 2024 season. The win means he went back-to-back with wins on the concrete surface at the track after winning last fall's playoff race, too. The race was a wild one with tires the center story, but Hamlin managed his well throughout the running, avoiding overtaxing the equipment, and holding just enough in reserve to lap nearly the entire field on his way to the victory. The win gets Hamlin's championship effort off the ground as he and the team will now shift their focus to preparing for the playoffs and hopefully an appearance in the championship finale. Up next is the first road course race of the season where Hamlin has just one top-15 finish from the three prior stops on the schedule.
Martin Truex Jr. - Like last fall, the Joe Gibbs Racing teammates seemed to have the measure of the field at Bristol. Truex started 11th but kept himself inside the top 10 all afternoon. He also largely avoided the tire problems, and was the only driver close enough to challenge Hamlin for the win at the finish. His second-place finish was his best of the season and his third consecutive top-10 finish. Truex sits sixth in the championship standings, and it looks like a race win may not be too far away. He is no slouch on road courses either, and this week's trip to the Circuit of the Americas could be an opportunity for him to shine. His best finish at the track was a seventh-place finish in 2022. Last season, he finished 17th. Toyota's current strength, plus a good string of results for Truex, could be a combination that pushes him to even greater success this week.
Brad Keselowski - Bristol has traditionally been a good track for Keselowski, and the same proved true again Sunday despite the tire problems. Keselowski didn't have the best qualifying effort and started Sunday's race 17th, but he quickly climbed through the field and spent most of the race around the top five. He was one of the only non-JGR competitors to be able to truly fight at the front, and he finished the race third to grab his second consecutive top-five finish. The top results recently are good for Keselowski's championship effort considering this week's track isn't one of his best. His average finish at COTA is 22.7 from the three races held there so far. He failed to finish last year's race due to a driveshaft problem, and his best finish was 14th in 2022. Another top-10 this week would be a good result for him, and his recent momentum could help him get there.
Ty Gibbs - Gibbs came out on top of a hectic first stage at Bristol, which featured 16 lead changes and four cautions. Tires were the story of the day, and Gibbs nursed his to the front of the field of the first segment to grab the stage win. He then worked his way forward and passed Joey Logano in the final laps of the second stage to sweep segment victories. As drivers struggled with their tires through the long final stage, Gibbs was not immune. His tire falloff was also significant and as he nursed his equipment to the finish, he fell down the order and finished ninth. Had it not been for the unique tire trouble, Gibbs may have been able to grab his first series win. Despite that, his ninth-place finish was his fourth straight top-10. Continuing that form will get him in Victory Lane sooner rather than later. Gibbs started 17th and finished ninth in his rookie Cup Series start at the Circuit of the Americas last season.
Alex Bowman - Through all of the tire trouble and extraordinary events of Sunday's race, Alex Bowman kept quiet and went about his business to score his best finish of the season since finishing second in the Daytona 500. Bowman struggled since that opening race of the season, failing to finish in the top 15 in any of the three races since. However, he navigated a treacherous 500 laps at Bristol with little incident to finish fourth, one of just five cars on the lead lap and the top-placing driver for Hendrick Motorsports. The true test will be how Bowman and team can now build on Sunday's finish. They should be able to have another good race this week at COTA, too. Bowman finished inside the top 10 in all three prior races there, including second- and third-place finishes in the last two. This week should be a good one for the No. 48 team, and Bristol's finish should add fuel to that fire.
DOWNGRADE
William Byron - Byron's afternoon at Bristol didn't even last long enough for his finish to be thwarted by tire issues alone. Just 20 laps into the race, Byron was nudged from behind and slide into the outside wall. A few laps after that contact, the caution waved for debris that came from the No. 24. The team also had to repair a bent toe link within the time allotted. The work was done, and Byron returned to action six laps down. That was effectively the end of Byron's day as he circled to the finish, falling a further two laps behind the leaders, and ended the day 35th. Byron and team will be working to stop their two-race skid of results outside of the top 10 in the coming week. At COTA, Byron has a best finish of fifth, which he collected last season after starting on pole and leading 23 laps. The early season win helps Byron, but momentum is a very important factor in NASCAR, and the No. 24 team needs some.
Tyler Reddick - In the ensuing caution for Byron's debris, Reddick opted to stay out to gain track position. That decision cycled him to the lead, but proved to be the wrong option due to the extreme tire wear that was starting to become an issue. Reddick couldn't keep the grip underneath him and spun shortly after, causing a multiple-car incident and heavy damage to his own machine. Reddick was able to return to the action, but the incident left him multiple laps down and out of any chances at salvaging a decent finish. His raced ended five laps behind the leaders in 30th position. The good news for the No. 45 squad is that a road course is next up on the schedule. Reddick won at COTA last season, leading 41 laps from a front-row start, and has established himself as one of the top road course racers in the series. He an the team will be anxious to put Bristol behind them and fight for wins again this week.
Kyle Busch - Busch had a really hard time keeping his tires underneath him Sunday at Bristol. In the first stage, he suffered a flat that sent him spinning. Then in the second stage, he lost control again to bring out the caution. Compounding the tire problems were more missteps on pit road, which is something the team has been working to fix since the beginning of the season. Raw speed appears to be present with the No. 8 team, but mechanical and human issues continue to hold them back in competition. A clean race with no mistakes would be a boost for the team, which has not finished inside the top 20 in three straight races now. Busch has two top-10s from three COTA starts, and was last season's runner-up finisher. With just one top-10 finish so far this season, the team clearly has room for improvement.
Joey Logano - Last week's stop at Bristol proved to be more of the same misery for Logano in this early season. Despite qualifying fourth, he suffered throughout the race and finished 22nd having scored stage points in just the second segment. It was the fourth finish outside of the top 20 from the first five races for the former champion. The bad results are especially painful considering he started inside the top five in all but one of those races. This team is under pressure and suffering from a multitude of on-track trouble that is holding them back from their true potential. Since positive momentum in NASCAR is such a big factor, fantasy players may want to see some improvement before jumping back on the Logano bandwagon. Circuit of the Americas would be a good place for fantasy players to take that pause, too. Logano has a best finish of third there, but his last two results were just 28th and 31st.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Tires - The return of Bristol's spring race to the concrete racing surface was widely welcomed both in the garage and among fans. In an effort to encourage a more competitive race, Goodyear designed a tire with more wear, but the tire was the same one used last fall and in testing. Neither of those uses presented the same level of extreme wear that the teams experienced Sunday. Through the fuel stints, tires seemed to begin universally failing after around 40 laps. Resin was applied to the lower groove of the racing surface and that may have added to the woes. However, by the finish of the race, tires were the dominant story, and the race was an exercise in who managed their tires the best. While the issues made the race very unpredictable, NASCAR and Goodyear would have preferred the cause to have purely been from the competition.
