This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Toyota came out swinging at Phoenix Raceway scoring their first pole of the 2024 season, winning both stages, and capturing the checkered flag through Christopher Bell. The manufacturer has been shut out of most of the early-season accolades in 2024, but they made the Phoenix race weekend all their own. Denny Hamlin scored the first victory by taking the top spot in qualifying, then it was Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell who finished the job with stage and race wins. In fact, only 14 laps of Sunday's race weren't led by a Toyota, and all of those belonged to Todd Gilliland as the field cycled through pit stops in the second stage. Bell's race win made him the fourth different winner this season, joining William Byron, Daniel Suarez, and Kyle Larson in the playoff hunt as the first representative from Toyota. Phoenix was the first 1.0-mile oval of the season, which could give fantasy players some insight into where the manufacturer's strengths are for the remainder of the schedule. Up next is the first short track, though.
Bristol Motor Speedway looms this coming race weekend for the first short-track outing (aside from Los Angeles) of the season. The track is returning to the traditional concrete surface for the spring race after trying out a dirt race the past few seasons. This week's contest will be the first spring race on the concrete since 2020, though. The three manufacturers have each won one of the fall races there
Toyota came out swinging at Phoenix Raceway scoring their first pole of the 2024 season, winning both stages, and capturing the checkered flag through Christopher Bell. The manufacturer has been shut out of most of the early-season accolades in 2024, but they made the Phoenix race weekend all their own. Denny Hamlin scored the first victory by taking the top spot in qualifying, then it was Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell who finished the job with stage and race wins. In fact, only 14 laps of Sunday's race weren't led by a Toyota, and all of those belonged to Todd Gilliland as the field cycled through pit stops in the second stage. Bell's race win made him the fourth different winner this season, joining William Byron, Daniel Suarez, and Kyle Larson in the playoff hunt as the first representative from Toyota. Phoenix was the first 1.0-mile oval of the season, which could give fantasy players some insight into where the manufacturer's strengths are for the remainder of the schedule. Up next is the first short track, though.
Bristol Motor Speedway looms this coming race weekend for the first short-track outing (aside from Los Angeles) of the season. The track is returning to the traditional concrete surface for the spring race after trying out a dirt race the past few seasons. This week's contest will be the first spring race on the concrete since 2020, though. The three manufacturers have each won one of the fall races there since. Denny Hamlin was the one who came out on top last September in the most recent Bristol visit.
UPGRADE
Christopher Bell - Bell led the field to the finish of his first stage victory of the season in the second segment of Sunday's race. The segment saw no caution periods and was a one-stop race to the flag that Bell was able to top. The Toyota strength on the weekend was a driving factor that pushed Bell to the front and enabled him to grabs his first win of the season and the first for the manufacturer. The victory puts him into the playoff picture, and the winning at Phoenix will give him confidence in his chances of winning the 2024 title if he can return to the track among the final four contenders. There is a long way to go before that, though. However, Bell is very good at Bristol, too. From five career starts, he has three top-10 finishes with a third-place finish from pole last season. He and the team will both be hoping Toyota continues their momentum this week, too.
Tyler Reddick - After last week's runner-up afternoon, Reddick took a step forward by passing Ty Gibbs to capture the first stage in Phoenix. He went on to finish second in the second segment, too. In all, Reddick led 68 total laps and finished 10th after losing some track position through the final pit cycle and involvement in a late accident with Denny Hamlin. Despite not reaching Victory Lane, it was another good weekend for Reddick, who continues to be on the cusp of an early victory to get 2024 off the ground. Even his involvement in the final caution of the race didn't hold him back from grabbing his second top-10 finish of the season. Circumstances are certainly positive for the No. 45 group. For the coming week, Reddick has just one top-10 finish at Bristol, a fourth-place finish in 2020. Qualifying better would help him improve his results, though. He has yet to start better than 12th on the concrete in five series tries.
Chris Buescher - While Toyota dominated the Phoenix weekend, Buescher carried the Ford flag admirably, finishing second after starting 14th. By the end of the second stage, Buescher found his way into the top 10, which was where he stayed until the end of the race, picking off positions all his way to the finish. Sunday's impressive runner-up finish was his first top-five of the season and second top-10, which pushed him into the playoff positions in the standings. The RFK Racing team have successfully carried their improvements from last season into early 2024, and the next step is for Buescher to grab an early 2024 victory. That could come as soon as this weekend where Buescher's strength should be on display again. Buescher won the fall Bristol race in 2022 and finished fourth there last fall, too. Last week's race should be a momentum booster for him and the team ahead of one of their better venues.
Ty Gibbs - Gibbs continues to climb the learning curve of the Cup Series, and he is inching closer to his first series win. At Phoenix, he impressively qualified on the front row. He went on to finish the first stage in second, but later in the race he slipped backward a bit. He recovered by the finish to claim his second top-five of the season and his third top-10 in a row. Those finishes put him eighth in the early championship standings. He should have even more potential to climb upward as the season goes on, too. For the coming week, Gibbs has just two series starts at Bristol on the concrete. His best finish of the two was his fifth-place result last season when he also led 102 laps. He qualified inside the top five in both of his Xfinity Series starts at the track, too. Fantasy players should expect Gibbs to be at the sharp end of the field again this week.
Michael McDowell - McDowell picked up his second top-10 finish of the season Sunday. He had a rough start to the year at the Daytona 500 and then stumbled again a week ago at Las Vegas. While inconsistency from week to week is still a concern, Sunday's eighth-place finish, when combined with his other eighth-place finish at Atlanta, show McDowell and his Front Row Motorsports team didn't lose much ground from last season. Fantasy players will remember 2023 as one of the squad's best with a 15th-place finish in the standings, a win, and eight top-10 finishes. Early results suggest that trajectory is holding true in 2024, too. However, the team does need to deliver consistent finishes from week to week. They get another shot at doing so this week at Bristol where McDowell's three best finishes at the track have come in the last four visits.
DOWNGRADE
Austin Dillon - Another early-race incident thwarted Dillon's day in Phoenix. With four straight finishes outside of the top 15 to start the season, not much has gone well for Dillon. Sunday's outing in Phoenix was another early stumble as he was caught up in the first crash of the day, making the rest of the afternoon yet another exercise in just making laps. The first step to avoiding these early-race issues would be to qualify better. Dillon has only started inside the top 20 twice in the first four races, and Phoenix was the second time he started 30th. Getting out of traffic to avoid early accidents would do Dillon a world of good. That should be his focus for Bristol where he has an average starting spot of 17.7 from 17 career tries. He finished 17th on the concrete surface last fall and could desperately use a clean race this coming week.
Joey Logano - Logano's poor 2024 start continued in Phoenix when he was hit from behind by John Hunter Nemechek. The contact made him lose control and the resulting crash knocked him out of the race completely, which was his third finish outside of the top 25 in the first four races of the season. It was also the second DNF so far this year. For all the speed Logano seems to have, he doesn't have the good fortune to take advantage of it. While Ford was on the backfoot throughout the weekend, it will come as little solace to Logano, who continues to fall behind. The gap in the championship continues to widen, but a win would erase much of that deficit. Despite their poor finishes, a win this weekend would not be a stretch. Logano is a two-time winner on Bristol's concrete surface, but he failed to finish the last two races at the track. His last top-10 there was a third-place finish in 2019, too.
Kyle Busch - Making crew changes to solve Busch's early-season troubles didn't help his cause much in Phoenix. The former champion had a difficult weekend from the start after he stumbled again in qualifying to start outside of the top 20 for the third time this season. Then, early in the final stage, Busch lost control in traffic and spun to bring out the caution. There wasn't much chance for Busch to recover from the incident and he ended the afternoon a lap down in 22nd position. It was Busch's second finish in a row outside of the top 20, and he slipped down the championship standings due to the trouble. Busch is one of several drivers hunting a turnaround to right the ship as quickly as possible. The coming week may be an optimistic one for the No. 8, though. Busch has eight Bristol wins from 34 career starts, but he hasn't finished better than 20th in his last three tries there.
Erik Jones - Sunday afternoon started full of promise for Jones. He qualified fourth and spent most of the race in and around the top 10 with a top finish within reach. However, late in the race, Jones and Chase Briscoe got together during the final restart. Jones was squeezed into the wall and damaged his car, which laid waste to his chances of capitalizing on his strengths. Instead, Jones tumbled down the order and finished 31st, seven laps down. After only scoring stage points in the first segment, the poor finish was a painful pill to swallow in the championship standings. The finish was the second outside of the top 20 from the first four, too. However, Jones and team have shown more competitiveness this season than they seemed to have last year, which could push them to a better overall finish in the standings. Bristol should give them another opportunity, too. Jones has three top-10s from his last five tries.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Hendrick Motorsports - Ahead of the Phoenix race weekend, Hendrick Motorsports was largely considered to be a contender for the race win. Those expectations didn't pan out, and the race weekend proved to be the first big miss of the organization so far this season. The highest-placed driver from Sunday was Kyle Larson, who finished 14th. Considering Chase Elliott and William Byron both qualified inside the top five, Sunday's race results were a big disappointment. The weekend certainly belonged to the Toyota teams, but Chevrolet was an unequivocal third among the manufacturers. This miss came as a surprise considering Hendrick has been one of the leaders throughout the first few races of the season and have two race wins. The team, and Chevrolet in general, must get back on form at Bristol. The last of their drivers to win there was Larson in 2021.
