NASCAR Barometer: A Busch Buschy McBusch Victory

For much of Sunday's Buschy McBusch Race 400 at Kansas Speedway it seemed like Kyle Larson would run away with the trophy. The Hendrick Motorsports driver stormed through the field to finish second in the first stage and win the second. He led 132 of 267 laps and appeared comfortably on his way to victory until several late-race cautions gave the rest of the field a chance. Kyle Busch seized that opportunity and raced hard on the final restarts to grab the lead and hold back drivers with fresher tires to lead the last 11 laps of the race. After one final two-lap shootout, the victory was Busch's, which made for a nice present for his 36th birthday and some good headlines. That win saw him join the growing list of first-time winners this season. Ten different drivers have won the first 11 races, which leaves just six playoff positions available for nonwinners. With 15 races left to go in the regular season, those spots are likely to continue falling, too. Up next is a throwback weekend at Darlington Raceway where Kevin Harvick won two of three races last season.

UPGRADE

Kyle Busch – Busch worked his way to the lead in the final laps of the opening stage Sunday in Kansas to capture the segment win. He then went on to hang tough and survive multiple late restarts on old tires to win his first race of the season. His win made him the 10th different winner in the first 11 races, and the victory came on his birthday. The win gives him significant comfort, as first-time winners pile up this season, reducing the number of playoff spots left for nonwinners. The early win should give him the confidence he lacked last season as playoffs approached without a visit to Victory Lane. Up next is Darlington where Busch has one prior win and finished second and seventh in two of the three races there last season.

Kyle Larson – Larson dominated the second segment of Sunday's race in Kansas and took the green and white checkered flag to win the stage, the fourth stage win for him this season. A starting spot deep in the field didn't stop him from moving swiftly to the front, and he then went on to dominate many of the race's caution-free miles. In fact, he was so quick that the race looked like it was his to win until multiple late restarts saw him slip backward on old tires. Had the race finished caution-free, Larson may have had two 2021 victories. Instead, he will have to wait at least until next week at Darlington. Larson has five top-10s from six starts at that track and has led an impressive 500 laps across that span, too.

Matt DiBenedetto – A fourth-place finish at Kansas was a third consecutive top-10 finish for DiBenedetto. The Wood Brothers Racing driver began finding his legs in Las Vegas and has continued to progress since then. He scored seven consecutive top-15 finishes since then and now holds a place among the playoff contenders. His racing has been a good showcase of his abilities, and he'll be hoping that he is doing enough to impress potential employers for next season. Another top run this week at Darlington could help him accomplish that, too. He added a second Darlington top-10 to his resume last season when he finished ninth in the second of three races there. 

Kevin Harvick – After an uncharacteristically slow start to the season, Harvick is beginning to find the competitive pace he needs to lead laps and win. His second-place finish Sunday at Kansas was his second top-five in as many weeks. The former champion won nine races last season, but Sunday's runner-up finish is his best of 2021 so far. He has only led laps at Daytona and Talladega, too. Laps led and top-five finishes are leading indicators of potential wins, and Harvick is now starting to show those characteristics. He won at Darlington twice last season and finished third the other time. He will have a top starting spot this coming week by virtue of his Kansas finish, which could make him one of the more attractive fantasy selections.

Chase Elliott – Like Harvick, Elliott is another former champion who has gotten off to a somewhat slow start to the 2021 season. Elliott finished fifth at Kansas, which was just his fifth top-10 finish from the first 11 races of the season. Bad luck in the early races is starting to fade, however. He has three top-10s in the last five races and is starting to show some more consistent speed each week. Elliott has never won at Darlington, but he finished fourth in the first of three races at the track in 2020. More importantly, he led 142 laps in the other two races there last season. Elliott is getting more competitive each week, which should be a good thing for fantasy players. He should be a factor out front at Darlington this week if his current trend continues.

DOWNGRADE

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin smacked the outside wall while working to hold off Larson for the lead, which caused enough damage to force him into the outside wall again. That second hit caused heavy damage and ended any chance he had to win. The damage was limited due to multiple cautions and restarts in the final miles. Hamlin remained on the lead lap and picked up spots each restart to claw back a 12th-place finish. Despite having one of the most consistently fast cars all season, Hamlin still remains winless in 2021 and may be getting nervous with 10 of the 16 playoff positions already filled by race winners this season. He'll try again this week at Darlington where he has three prior wins.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – Along with Denny Hamlin, Stenhouse was the only driver to finish in the top 20 in every race of the 2021 season until Talladega. He was involved in a wreck in that race and then backed it up with another crash this past week at Kansas. Back-to-back disappointments pushed him out of playoff contention and now he faces the daunting task of working his way back. He is 18 points behind the cutoff line heading to this week's race and is tied with Tyler Reddick in the standings. Stenhouse has never finished in the top 10 at Darlington, but he did snag a 19th-place finish there last fall. That was one of his five top-20 finishes at the circuit from 10 career starts. Fantasy players may want to give him a rest until he rediscovers consistent top-20 form.

Christopher Bell – Bell was putting together a nice race at Kansas before disaster struck in the final laps. He started in the fourth row and finished in the points in both stages. The afternoon was shaping up to be another top-10 finish for the driver in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing, and it would have been a nice return to form after he missed the top 15 in Talladega. Instead, he was caught up in one of the multiple incidents at the end of the race and was knocked out of the top 20 with a 28th-place finish, which was his worst since he crashed out early on the dirt at Bristol. An 11th-place finish in the second race at Darlington last season is Bell's best at the track. He will be seeking to regain his momentum this week.

Aric Almirola – Almirola has not been able to build upon his Richmond top-10 finish, which makes his chances of working into the playoffs a distant hope without a win. Talladega should have been an opportunity for him to make up some ground, but that 15th-place finish and a subsequent 29th-place at Kansas makes his position in the standings a perilous one. After 11 races, he sits 28th in the standings, 83 points away from the playoff cut line. At this point, it seems like the only way Almirola will qualify for the playoffs will be if he wins. He isn't likely to do that this week at Darlington either. He has two top-10 finishes from 11 starts at the track. Both of those came last season, but his form this season is one that makes him a risky choice for fantasy rosters this week.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Chris Buescher – Buescher's eighth-place finish at Kansas was his second top-10 of the season and leaves him in playoff contention after 11 races. The Roush Fenway Racing team showed its speed earlier in the season when both Buescher and teammate Ryan Newman surprised the field in Miami with a very competitive showing. That race was the last time Buescher led laps until the 13 he led in Kansas on Sunday. It was also the fourth top-15 from Buescher in the last six races, ending a two-race skid at Richmond and Talladega. This team is one fantasy players should keep an eye on as it builds consistency and make its return to the front of the running order after multiple seasons mired deep in the pack.