NASCAR Barometer: Busch Breaks Through in Texas

Kyle Busch put his string of runner-up finishes behind him to take the checkered flag for the first time in the 2018 Monster Energy NASCAR Cup series season on Sunday. Fittingly, he held off Kevin Harvick in the final miles as he maintained a gap just large enough to have a relatively comfortable run to the finish at the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Busch had been so strong throughout the early season that it seemed just a matter of time before he would visit Victory Lane, and by avoiding the trouble that befell others throughout the race he did just that to claim an overdue victory.

The season rolls on to Bristol Motor Speedway this week, where teams will face their second short-track test in three races. Clint Bowyer topped the field at Martinsville, and backed up that long-awaited win with another top-10 finish at Texas. Ford still seems to have the fastest cars, but Toyota is right there with Chevrolet starting to close the gap.

UPGRADE

Kyle Busch – After finishing second to Harvick in the opening segment, Busch's team put him in the lead for the start of the second stage with a quick pit stop that got him out ahead of Harvick. He then leveraged that track position to run at the front and pass his brother to take the second stage win of the race. He dominated the final segment to grab his first win of 2018, holding off Harvick in a fitting finish after coming so close so many times this year. It should only get better for him from here, too. Busch has six Bristol victories and is the most recent winner at the track after winning there last fall.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick won the opening stage of Sunday's race under caution. The afternoon turned when he lost track position after a lug nut impeded the jack when stopping under caution for Kyle Larson's crash. A return to pit road for a loose wheel after that restart put him even farther behind, compounding an already difficult race. Still, he bounced back to score a runner-up finish that will leave him questioning what could have been. He lost to Busch by just a fraction of a second, which could have been prevented with just one less mistake. That aside, Harvick has two Bristol victories in his 34 starts at the race. He's also finished in the top 10 there in the last five races.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney was hit with a pit violation on his first stop on Sunday, which was an early indicator of how challenging the race would be for him. An unattended tire was the culprit, and the impact left him a lap down to the leader after the drive-through penalty was served. He made his way back to the top 10 before having to make a return to pit road for a loose wheel in the second segment. By not giving up, he was able to work his way back up to a fifth-place finish. Bristol hasn't been the best venue for Blaney, either. His best finish in five tries was 10th last fall. His average finish at the track so far is just 22.2.

Erik Jones – Jones scored an impressive fourth-place finish on Sunday. It was a top-shelf performance for which many fans have been waiting since Jones took over Matt Kenseth's car for the 2018 season. The young driver has proven his pace throughout his time in the series, but Sunday's result started showing what's possible with Jones. With more time for the team to gel, fantasy players should expect to see more finishes like Jones delivered in Texas. The next one could come as soon as this week, too. His Bristol record in the Cup series includes a pole position and runner-up finish last fall. The momentum he gained from last week's race could propel him to another top finish again this week at Bristol.

Jamie McMurray – After weeks of mediocre performances McMurray may have made a breakthrough in Texas. His third-place run was a terrific result after largely being overshadowed by teammate Larson throughout the opening portion of the 2018 season. The week off should have given the team time to regroup and assess where they might be lacking, while their teammate was succeeding. McMurray's strength on Sunday could be a signal that the Chevrolet teams are starting to find the sweet spot of their new chassis, which could give Ford and Toyota competition as the season progresses. This week's race at Bristol will be a good indicator of just how much Chevrolet has gained. McMurray has three top-fives from 30 starts at the track and finished 12th in both races there last season.

DOWNGRADE

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin was one of a handful of drivers to suffer a penalty on his first run down pit road, but that was only the start of his troubles Sunday afternoon. He was caught afoul after pitting from the lead, and after returning to the track in second, he was forced to perform another drive through as punishment. That penalty put him a lap down and outside of the top 15. He was caught up in a wreck at the start of the final stage that put an end to his rollercoaster afternoon for good. Bristol has been a good circuit for Hamlin, though. He has four top-10 finishes in the last five starts, and he won the fall race there in 2012.

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex made an early stop under green that split the first stage in half, but left him behind in the running order with more than 40 laps remaining in the segment. After the stops cycled through the field, he was back inside the top five, but then a failed right-front tire sent him into the outside wall and out of the race. It was a terribly disappointing result for Truex, who almost certainly would've been in the mix for the win. With just one top-10 in the last five Bristol races, Truex may not be the optimal fantasy selection this week. The team will have to work hard to rebound, but they have the pedigree to get the job done.

Jimmie Johnson – Yet again Johnson was under the gun early in Texas. The dismal start to 2018 continued as he was forced to pit twice in the first stage due to a vibration that he couldn't endure. Being back in the field ultimately cost him a finish when he was caught up in the melee at the start of the final segment. It was another weekend to forget for the former dominator of the sport. Race performances don't appear to be getting better any time soon, either. Johnson has two Bristol wins, including this race last season. He finished 11th there in the fall, but remains behind where he was this time last season. It would be a surprise to see him win this week.

Kyle Larson – Larson was the second driver to test the outside wall in Texas. He had started in the back of the field after failing inspection multiple times earlier in the week, but worked his way into the top runners before suffering the right-front tire failure about halfway through the second stage of Sunday's race. The hard hit was terminal to his effort. He had a quick car but noticeably had been suffering handling issues before the tire ultimately gave way as he was entering the first turn. It was a dismal weekend for the team that had been at the front of the Chevrolet charge early in 2018. In eight Bristol starts Larson has four top-10 finishes, including both visits last season.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Darrell Wallace Jr. – Not since Daytona have we talked about Wallace's ability as a rookie in the Cup series. He raced to an eighth-place finish at Texas in a very confident afternoon, considering the team had largely struggled since the strong opening to the season in Daytona. The performance shows that Wallace is a capable driver, and the team has the capacity to get the job done. The team lacks consistency, but with continued work they'll begin to put themselves inside the top 15 on a more regular basis. Continuing to take steps forward will put them in position to capitalize when circumstances are in their favor. For that reason, fantasy owners shouldn't take their eyes off of this driver as the season continues.