Goodyear 400 Preview: Mother's Day Melee

The Track Too Tough to Tame is the next stop on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  Darlington Raceway is an egg-shaped, 1.366-mile oval unlike any track on the circuit.  It's not an intermediate oval and not a superspeedway, but somewhere in between.  

The course has two distinctly different sets of turns.  Turns 3 and 4 are much narrower than turns 1 and 2.  This is a challenging aspect for crew chiefs as the handling setup for the stock cars is a bit more complex.  You have to find a happy "middle ground" for your handling set up so that one set of turns doesn't upset the car.  All this combined with the 23-25-degree variable banking and wide racing grooves makes for some of the most exciting, side-by-side racing that NASCAR has to offer. 

 The first thing that the casual fan will notice when watching a race at Darlington Raceway is how high the cars run through the turns.  On most ovals, the preferred line is low and tight to the inside lines, but Darlington is a very unique facility.  Most drivers prefer to run the high line right out next to the wall and carry that momentum into the straight-aways as they accelerate coming out of the turns.  This historic oval's unique configuration almost always makes the high groove the fastest way around the race track.  Considering that we just came from the two-groove racing at Kansas Speedway, we're in for a big change this weekend.  The rim-riding action of Darlington this Sunday afternoon can be as entertaining as any event in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.

Nearly all the tracks that the NASCAR Cup Series has visited to this point will not be of much help in figuring out Darlington Raceway this weekend.  While Darlington is a super speedway, the racing is not like any other super speedway on the circuit.  So this for this race, the loop data from Darlington Raceway will be an extremely important component in developing a list of fantasy racing drivers.  The recent hot streaks coming into the weekend will prove to be a bit of a wrinkle, but historical trends should run pretty true.  There is small group of drivers that perform well at the South Carolina oval, and as you will see in the table below, they're quite easy to identify.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 15 years or 18 races at Darlington Raceway.

When we take a look at the loop stats in the table above, we immediately notice that there is quite a bit of parity between the different manufacturers and super stables in the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington.  Ford and Toyota have each visited victory lane in the last eight races at the South Carolina oval.  Chevrolet has been shut out since 2014, but that could change as soon as this weekend. Drivers like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott and William Byron will all try to up their game to get the bowtie brand back into victory lane at Darlington.  While Ford had the most success here in the 2020 season with Kevin Harvick taking two of the three victories and Denny Hamlin taking one for Toyota, these two camps will look to continue shutting out Chevrolet at the Track Too Tough to Tame this Sunday.

NASCAR's top division typically competes at Darlington Raceway just once a season, but last season NASCAR raced at the Darlington oval three times due to the COVID-interrupted schedule and makeup races.  The additional stats and data should serve to give us a good feel for our driver groups this weekend.  The Sunday event will be raced in the mid-afternoon and heat of the day, so that will be somewhat of a departure from the many night races we've seen at Darlington in recent years.  Certainly Martin Truex Jr.'s and Chase Elliott's dominance at this oval last September will get a lot of scrutiny this week as we make our return to the South Carolina speedway.  The picks below are our best bets for fantasy racing success at Darlington Raceway.  

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – Busch's career stats at the Darlington oval may not be his greatest, but it's his most recent work at this oval that we need to pay attention to this weekend.  The driver of the No. 18 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota has been sharp the last few seasons at this facility.  He has a pair of Top-3 finishes in his last four trips to South Carolina.  Busch won this event in 2008, and he's led well over 700 laps for his career at the Darlington track.  Five of his last six trips to the South Carolina raceway have netted Top-10 finishes, and his start in last season's Toyota 500 yielded an impressive runner-up finish.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star is coming off the big victory at Kansas and will ride that momentum into Sunday afternoon's Goodyear 400.

Kevin Harvick – It took the Stewart Haas Racing star several years to finally nab his first Darlington victory, but Harvick finally got that monkey off his back in this event in 2014.  He won the pole position, led 238 laps and made the field look helpless in dominating his way to that win.  For what Harvick lacked in excellence earlier in his career at this oval, he's very quickly making up for in the present.  The veteran driver now has three victories, one runner-up finish and well over 750 laps led since that 2014 win at Darlington Raceway.  This high-groove style of racing is clearly warming up to Harvick and his No. 4 SHR team.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford took two victories and a third-place finish in his three starts at this facility in 2020, and that's huge factor going into this weekend's battle at the Track Too Tough to Tame.   

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a top play to consider as NASCAR heads back to Darlington Raceway this weekend.  The big ovals have been kind this season with many Top-5 finishes.  Hamlin has impeccable Darlington stats with three wins and nine Top-5 finishes in 17-career starts.  That works out to a stellar 53-percent Top-5 rate at this unique oval.  With over 590 laps led in 17-career starts, it's clear that Hamlin knows how to race the Track Too Tough to Tame.  He's only finished outside the Top 20 once at this track in his career, and that's some peace of mind as well.  The JGR star won last season's Toyota 500 at Darlington and that makes him a very dangerous driver this weekend.

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star "went for it" in the final restart at Kansas this past week.  It was literally "checkers or wreckers" as Darrell Waltrip used to say.  Larson would get in the outside lane and push hard with Ryan Blaney in an attempt for the win, but the two would get tangled with Larson getting heavy into the wall and finishing a distant 19th-place on the last lap.  What is unforgettable about last Sunday is the fact that Larson led a dominating 132 laps before his last lap scrape with the wall.  The No. 5 Chevrolet was the class of the field.  That's good news heading to Darlington Raceway.  Larson has three Top-3 finishes in his last four Darlington starts and he's led 500 laps in six-career starts at the tough oval.  If Larson's luck holds up, he'll get the victory this weekend that he should have gotten last Sunday. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 team are coming off a strong sixth-place finish at Kansas and looking to continue their good form at Darlington Raceway.  Truex's Darlington history shows one win and eight Top 10's in 17-career starts or a steady 47-percent rate.  He's led 444 laps at this South Carolina oval, including 196 in his last start in last September's Southern 500.  Truex has been one of the better performing drivers this season on the intermediate and larger ovals.  While victories have been hard to come by on ovals this size, Top-10 finishes have not been a problem.  Truex should prove to be a dependable fantasy racing selection for Sunday's Goodyear 400.    

Brad Keselowski – With first- and third-place finishes the last two events, Keselowski comes into the Goodyear 400 with a lot of momentum.  The Penske Racing star has 14-career starts at Darlington Raceway, and the results have been considerably improving in recent seasons.  Keselowski won this event three years ago for his first-career Darlington victory.  He's led 130 combined laps in his last five Darlington races, and Keselowski has claimed Top 10's in three of those five outings.  His consistency at this oval right now is impressive.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford has been one of the better performing drivers on the medium-to-larger ovals in 2021.  With a Top-10 rate of right on 50-percent at Darlington Raceway, we believe Keselowski will be a solid choice in weekly lineup leagues.

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster is looking to recapture his stride after a couple tough outings.  With Elliott's strong fifth-place finish at Kansas this past Sunday, the struggles may be over for this driver and team.  Darlington Raceway has been stingy to this point in his Cup Series career.  He has been racing towards a break through at this track and we believe that could happen this Sunday afternoon.  Elliott led a combined 142 laps in the three Darlington events last season, but only came away with one Top-5 finish.  The ability to finish these races will come soon enough.  He and the No. 9 team have shown recently the ability to lead a lot of laps at this egg-shaped oval, and the consistency to rack up lots of Top 10's is coming.      

William Byron – The most consistent and sharp driver on the intermediate ovals this season has not been Kevin Harvick or Martin Truex Jr., but Byron and his No. 24 team.  The Hendrick Motorsports youngster has dazzling finishes of first-, eighth-, eighth- and ninth-place on the mid-sized tracks in 2021.  While Darlington is a lot different than the cookie cutter ovals, the speed to succeed should be the same.  Byron now has five-career starts at this track, and he's starting to get the drift of high-groove racing that is the trademark of Darlington.  His fifth-place finish in last September's Southern 500 was a career-best mark at the track for Byron.  It was a great last impression of racing here and teases the potential for this Sunday afternoon. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Darlington & solid upside

Alex Bowman – The veteran Hendrick Motorsports driver has been gradually improving with each visit to the Darlington oval.  Last season's three races at the Track Too Tough to Tame were a windfall for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet.  Bowman used that extra racing to grab two Top-10 finishes, including one runner-up finish in The Real Heroes 400.  Those were his first two-career Top 10's at the challenging South Carolina raceway, and a dramatic improvement over past efforts at Darlington.  Bowman will look to follow up on those efforts with a strong performance Sunday in the Goodyear 400.  Although he is coming off a somewhat disappointing 18th-place finish at Kansas this past Sunday, Bowman should rebound nicely at Darlington Raceway. 

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is beginning to show some signs of life after an inconsistent start to the season.  He's racked up a pair of seventh-place finishes the last two weeks at Talladega and Kansas.  The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet will look to extend his current Top-10 streak to three races after Sunday's Goodyear 400.  Reddick took immediately to this track in his rookie campaign last season.  He grabbed a surprising seventh-place finish in his Cup Series debut at Darlington and followed that with a Top-15 finish in the second of three events.  After a sample size of three races, Reddick now sits on a respectable 14.3 average finish at Darlington Raceway.  Sunday's 400-mile battle will be another opportunity for the young driver to impress.

Austin Dillon – The historical stats are a good indicator of potential this weekend with now nine-career starts at this facility.  Dillon's numbers are pretty sturdy and date back far enough to define a good trend line.  The Richard Childress Racing driver has netted two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in those nine starts, along with six Top-15 finishes.  His start in last September's Southern 500 fetched an eye-opening runner-up finish for the No. 3 RCR team.  With only one finish here outside the Top 20, Dillon carries a dependable 12.0 average finish at Darlington Raceway.  The high-groove racing style obviously appeals to the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet.    

Chris Buescher – The No. 17 Roush Fenway Racing team has been running well of late.  Buescher is fresh off a strong eighth-place finish at Kansas Speedway and that's his second Top-10 and fourth Top-15 in the last six races.  The intermediate and larger ovals have been sweet spots for the veteran driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang.  Buescher has seven-career NASCAR Cup Series starts at the Track Too Tough to Tame, and he's come away with two Top-15 and four Top-20 finishes in those efforts.  Granted, his three starts last season at Darlington weren't the greatest, he should now be accustomed to racing here without practice laps or qualifying.  Buescher is likely a Top-15 finish in the Goodyear 400 and carries the potential to sneak inside the Top 10.      

Matt DiBenedetto – The Wood Brothers Racing veteran has been dialed-up to an "11" on a "10-scale" of late and it's shown in each of the past seven events.  DiBenedetto has collected two consecutive Top-5 finishes the last two weeks and three Top-10 and seven Top-15 finishes the last seven races.  The driver of the No. 21 Ford has rocketed from 30th in the point standings to his current 16th-place during those seven events.  Now DiBenedetto sets his sights on a Darlington track that has yielded some recent success to him.  His last four starts have netted eighth-, 14th-, ninth- and 21st-place finishes.  The 13.0 average finish across that recent span is difficult to ignore.  Given the way this driver and team are currently performing we believe DiBenedetto is a good bet for a Top-10 finish this Sunday afternoon.       

Michael McDowell – The Daytona 500 winner is quickly turning around the short-track swoon that he experienced at Bristol and Martinsville.  McDowell's third- and 13th-place finishes the past two weeks at Talladega and Kansas have thrust the No. 34 FRM team back into the fantasy racing discussion and relevance.  Darlington Raceway is a mid-sized oval, and not too dissimilar to the tracks McDowell has been enjoying some success on in 2021.  His 11-career starts here haven't yielded much success, but it's what McDowell did here last season that we want to focus on the most.  The last two starts netted 17th- and 16th-place finishes for his Front Row Motorsports team.  We're willing to bet he can do even better than that in Sunday's Goodyear 400.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – Blaney was racing for the win in the final laps last week, but luck would not be on his side and the finish would be a lackluster 21st-place at Kansas.  He'll look to bounce back at what has been a very tough oval for him throughout his career.  Blaney's eight-career starts at Darlington Raceway have only netted three Top-15 finishes, so this track has not been a place of success for the Penske Racing driver.  His finishes of 16th-, 21st- and 24th-place last season alone have inflated his average finish here to an undesirable 20.4.  It's best to keep Blaney on the fantasy racing bench this weekend at Darlington Raceway.                 

Joey Logano – Logano has been a complete mess this season on the intermediate and larger ovals.  Only Las Vegas yielded a Top-10 finish to the No. 22 Ford team.  Everywhere else has been a big struggle for the Penske Racing star.  Darlington Raceway has been a mixed bag for Logano over his 12-season career. He owns seven Top-10 finishes in those 14-career starts for a respectable 50-percent rate.  However, Logano has been up-and-down in recent Darlington outings.  His last four starts have been two finishes outside the Top 10 vs. two finishes inside the Top 10 for a 10.3 average finish.  While not bad on its face, we have to question the No. 22 team's current state and ability to go into Darlington without practice and break their current trend.  Logano is the one driver of the top tier that we label as a "high risk" start this weekend.  

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – What was a pretty good March and April for the No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing team has turned a bit sour as we enter May.  33rd- and 34th-place finishes the last two weeks have dropped Stenhouse from 13th- to 18th-place in the championship point standings.  The veteran driver is limping into Darlington weekend, and this is not the place to come cold if you're Stenhouse.  Darlington Raceway has put the "hurt lock" on Stenhouse over the years.  In 10-career starts he has just one Top-15 finish vs. four finishes outside the Top 25.  The average finish is checking in at a bloated 25.2.  Last season was a year to forget for this driver and team at Darlington Raceway, and it will likely continue into 2021 this Sunday.    

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has had a tough 2021 season through 11 races.  Almirola has just one Top-10 finish and enters Mother's Day weekend a distant 28th-place in the driver point standings.  Reversing his season at Darlington Raceway will be a tall task for the veteran driver.  Almirola's 11-career Darlington starts have only yielded two Top-10 finishes vs. six finishes outside the Top 15.  The average finish stands at a lofty 16.8.  Almirola needs to turn in a better-than-typical Darlington performance this weekend, and that may not be very likely to happen for the No. 10 Ford team.  He's yet to crack the Top 15 this season on an intermediate oval and they're coming off a disastrous 29th-place finish at Kansa Speedway this past Sunday.