GEICO 500 Preview: Superspeedway Battle

Talladega Superspeedway is up next in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule.  The enormous tri-oval in Talladega, Ala., is the largest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, measuring an amazing 2.66 miles in length, and stunning 33-degree banking in the turns.  The track's size and banking make it a wide-open, four-wide, heart-pounding racing experience where speeds are high and margin for error is small.  This will be a big departure from the recent short-track stint in the schedule, and with it a change of faces at the top of our driver recommendations.    

This weekends, action will be similar to what we witnessed in the season-opening Daytona 500 were heavy packs that would eventually spread out into double lines or multiple packs over long green-flag runs.  With the ability to race to the back or the front very quickly, moving through traffic presented little problem.  However, passing at the front among the leaders was a bit more difficult.  The 22 lead changes during the Great American Race were a three-season low for the event.  This season's Daytona 500 also saw the return of the multi-car crashes.  There were four caution periods due to accidents involving multiple cars, with two of the incidents being particularly large with many cars involved.  With the return of the "big one" or "big ones" we may see some form of return to the sandbagging at the back.  Despite the stage racing point system, some drivers might feel better about staying out of the wrecks and being around at the end to contend for the win.  The 18 cars that DNF'd in the season-opener will make some drivers think twice about spending too much time in the eye of the storm. 

The art of superspeedway racing hasn't changed despite all the rules and car changes over the past few seasons.  Once again, winning on these superspeedways has been reduced to the lowest common denominator, which is when to make your move and who to do it with.  As we saw at Daytona, Michael McDowell's late charge to the front and last-lap pass for the win over Joey Logano, it's all about timing often times in these superspeedway races.  We expect to see a similar racing style prevail at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, but hopefully without the nasty crash that occurred on the last lap of the Daytona 500. 

Speaking of the race earlier this season at Daytona, we can rely on those results to some extent in looking at the GEICO 500 this weekend.  The cars that were strong at Daytona in February will likely be the same to run up front on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.  You can only put so much faith in historical stats and strong cars.  At the end of the day, the driver that keeps all the doors and tires on his car and finishes the race is as good as gold.  As far as recent historical data is concerned, we have years of Talladega electronic scoring to rely on for our fantasy racing picks this week.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 16 years or 32 races at Talladega Superspeedway.

We witnessed Chevrolet lose their grip of dominance on this superspeedway in 2012.  Since then the Alabama oval has become solidly a Ford dominated track.  Drivers from that manufacturer, specifically the camps of Penske, Roush and Stewart Haas Racing, have claimed nine of the last 11 wins at Talladega.  The only outliers to this data has been Chase Elliott's victory for Chevrolet in April of 2019 and Denny Hamlin's win for Toyota in October of 2020.  That last Talladega race was a one-two Toyota finish that afternoon with Hamlin being followed by former teammate, Erik Jones.  Ford driver Joey Logano was fast and led a lot of laps that Fall afternoon, but it would be Hamlin that would be savvy enough to prevail.

When taken into account with the June race last season at Talladega it seems that Ford's dominance may be coming to an end at this huge oval and we're beginning to see more parity among the different manufacturers.  Although Ford driver Ryan Blaney won the June race last year at the Alabama Superspeedway, there was a powerful mix of Chevrolet and Toyota teams at the front nipping at his heels all the way to the four-wide scramble to the finish.  We expect to see that same wild style of racing this weekend and no single manufacturer would seem to have a clear edge. 

Given what we saw in the Daytona 500 earlier this season, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski should head up the assault for Ford once again this weekend.  Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman and William Byron will likely be Chevy's strongest contenders.  For Toyota it will most likely rest solely on the shoulders of Denny Hamlin to pull the big performance and win for that manufacturer.  Talladega races always hold plenty of thrills as well as surprises.  There could be a manufacturer swing in the offing for the GEICO 500.  We'll take an in-depth look at past history at Talladega and recent trends on superspeedway ovals and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this Sunday afternoon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Our last Talladega winner tops the contenders list this week.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star now has two wins and 13 Top-10 finishes at the central Alabama oval.  He has been a top performer on the superspeedway circuit for the last several seasons with five combined victories between Talladega and Daytona since the 2014 season.  The No. 11 Toyota team is presently among the series best when the haulers unload at either of these two ovals.  Hamlin has four Top-5 finishes in his last five Talladega starts, and he has two victories and five Top-5 finishes in his last five starts between the two huge tracks.  He should bring the same speed and tenacity to this 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway. 

Ryan Blaney – With wins in two of his last three Talladega races, this driver and team have to be heavy favorites this weekend.  Blaney won this event one year ago in impressive style.  He led 63 laps that June afternoon and held off a mad pack of drivers in a four-wide photo finish.  The No. 12 Penske Racing Ford team also won in an equally impressive performance in October of 2019.  The two wins have erased five seasons of struggles at this facility for Blaney.  The young driver sports a lowly 31-percent career Top-10 rate at Talladega Superspeedway, but more importantly he's now showing the speed to lead laps and win races.  Blaney will be a top contender to win in Sunday's GEICO 500.

Joey Logano – Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega Superspeedway, with all three victories coming since the 2015 season.  While his last three outings have lacked a bit of luck, he's also led a combined 94 laps across those last three Talladega events.  That is proof that the No. 22 Ford team still has the right stuff to win here.  Logano was vying for the win in the closing laps of the season-opening Daytona 500 when he was involved in a last-lap wreck with Brad Keselowski.  He led 26 laps in the Great American race and showed the muscle needed to win these events.  When we get down to crunch time in the final laps of these races the Penske Racing star is nearly always racing for the win.  Logano will be a strong contender to take home a fourth Talladega trophy this Sunday.

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet rides a three-race superspeedway Top-5 streak between Daytona and Talladega entering this event.  Elliott has led 44 combined laps across those starts and collected two runner-up finishes.  He's finally come of age in this style of racing, and will be a factor in the outcome of the GEICO 500.  Elliott is a one-time Talladega winner (2019) and he has three Top 10's in his last four Talladega starts.  His performance at this facility last October netted 41 laps led and a strong fifth-place finish in the YellaWood 500.  Elliott and the No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports team will carry the fight for manufacturer Chevrolet into this Sunday's GEICO 500.        

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The five-time Talladega winner has a real expertise at superspeedway racing.  While Keselowski's luck hasn't been as good of late with this form of high-stakes racing, the No. 2's incredible speed is still there.  The veteran Penske Racing driver was in the mix to win the season-opening Daytona 500 but got tangled in a last-lap crash that would deny him the victory.  As it relates to Talladega, Keselowski's 11 Top-10 finishes ring in at a respectable 46-percent career rate.  That's very high among veteran drivers at this speedway.  With close to 300 laps led for his career at Talladega Superspeedway, we've become accustomed to seeing this driver and team race up front here among the leaders.  Hopefully, his luck is better this weekend that the last few in these races.

William Byron – The young driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has elevated his game on these big ovals the last couple seasons.  Byron won at Daytona last August and he now has two Top-5 finishes in his last three superspeedway starts.  One of those performances was his last outing at Talladega.  In last October's YellaWood 500, Byron peddled the team's Chevrolet to a career-best fourth-place Talladega finish.  At just 23-years-old and entering just his fourth-full season of NASCAR Cup Series competition, Byron still has a lot left to accomplish.  He really seems to be warming up to this style of racing, and it's beginning to show in the results each time we visit Talladega and Daytona.     

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran has become a specialty fantasy racing play on these superspeedway ovals.  Stenhouse nabbed a pair of victories in 2017 at both Talladega and Daytona, and he added a pair of Talladega Top-5 finishes in 2018.  The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet showed great speed in this event last season, pushing Ryan Blaney to the eventual win and finishing runner-up in last year's GEICO 500.  Stenhouse has always seemed to fare a bit better at this oval than the one in Daytona.  With one win, six Top-5 (40-percent) and nine Top-10 (60-percent) Top-10 finishes at Talladega Superspeedway, Stenhouse has proven himself and elite level fantasy racing play at the huge Alabama oval.

Kyle Larson – The Hendrick Motorsports star has never been a big-time performer at the Talladega oval.  With just two Top-10 finishes in 12-career starts the 17-percent Top-10 rate may discourage some players from deploying Larson in the GEICO 500.  However, we would caution against dismissing Larson's potential this week.  Since moving to the No. 5 Chevrolet team, Larson has gotten a big boost in performance.  Also, the veteran driver has been improving in this style of racing.  Due to his suspension last season we only have two superspeedway races to look at in the last two seasons for Larson.  Both resulted in strong Top-10 finishes in the last two Daytona 500's.  We believe it would be premature to dismiss Larson's potential to crack the Top 10 in Sunday's 500-mile melee.    

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Kevin Harvick – The driver of the No. 4 Ford is a career-long performer on the superspeedways, but he's never been a major threat to win these races.  Harvick is a one-time Talladega winner (2010) and he has 16-career Top-10 finishes at the huge track.  That checks in at a respectable 40-percent career rate.  While more recent years have been lean for the Stewart Haas Racing star, he has shown some improved finishes in his most recent superspeedway outings.  Harvick has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his last five starts between Daytona and Talladega.  We haven't forgotten the 17 laps led and fourth-place finish he registered in the Daytona 500 a couple months ago.  It likely signals that Harvick is ready to elevate his game on these big tracks once again.

Austin Dillon – On a track that takes a lot of luck and skill to succeed, Dillon has been excelling in both categories over the years at both Talladega and Daytona.  The driver of the Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet is the 2018 Daytona 500 winner, and he has numerous Top-10 and Top-15 finishes at both ovals.  Dillon's last two superspeedway outings have been 12th- and third-place finishes at Talladega last Fall and Daytona in February.  We believe the veteran driver will certainly be a face among the Top 15 this Sunday afternoon, if not the Top 10.  Superspeedway racing has always been a strength of Dillon and he shouldn't disappoint in the GEICO 500. 

Alex Bowman – The Richmond winner has had an up-and-down season to this point, but it's the big ovals where he really performs at his best.  Superspeedway racing has been a strength of this driver since moving to Hendrick Motorsports.  Last season saw Bowman collect a pair of Top 10's and three Top 15's on the superspeedway circuit with seventh- and 14th-place finishes coming at Talladega alone.  It would appear that he prefers this track to the one in Florida.  Bowman qualified on the pole position for this season's Daytona 500, but unfortunately he was rolled up in an early-race crash during the Great American Race.  The No. 48 Chevrolet team should be poised to follow up their Richmond victory well at Talladega Superspeedway.

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has had a pretty good season to this point, so we know Buescher is anxious to flex that Roush superspeedway muscle and speed at Talladega.  He grabbed three Top-10 finishes in the four big oval events of 2020 with his new No. 17 race team.  That included Buescher's four laps led and sixth-place finish in this event at Talladega last season.  He would return to Alabama in the Fall and lead an impressive 15 laps but get shuffled out in the closing laps and finish a distant 22nd-place.  After six seasons of racing at NASCAR's top level, Buescher has finally been given cars that can race and finish well in these superspeedway events.  He should be a good fantasy racing choice for the GEICO 500.

Ross Chastain – The journeyman driver is coming off a solid Top-15 Richmond performance and perhaps rounding the corner a bit on a slow start to the 2021 campaign.  Chastain opened the season with an impressive seventh-place finish in the Daytona 500, but hasn't visited the Top 10 since.  This could be the week to see that happen again.  Chastain has always been a gifted superspeedway driver.  His last Talladega start came in the Fall of 2019.  He peddled the No. 15 Chevrolet of Jay Robinson Racing to a surprising 12th-place finish in the 1000Bulbs.com 500.  Chastain nabbed second- and sixth-place Xfinity Series finishes at Talladega Superspeedway last season, so he has talent in this style of racing.

Justin Haley – The big sleeper of the week will certainly be Haley and his No. 16 Kaulig Racing team.  The young driver has become a familiar site as a spot-starter in superspeedway events.  Haley grabbed an upset win in the Summer Daytona race of 2019 and he nabbed 13th- and 11th-place finishes last season in two starts split between Daytona and Talladega.  The 11th-place came in last October's YellaWood 500 at Talladega.  The young driver certainly has the gift of racing in the packs and in the draft.  Both Kaulig and Spire Motorsports have given Haley good cars the last couple seasons on these ovals.  In weekly lineup, salary cap and other tiered fantasy racing formats, Haley is a must start.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Aric Almirola – Almirola possesses a gift for superspeedway racing.  However, the veteran Stewart Haas Racing driver has fallen on hard times the last year or so.  Almirola has just one Top 10 in his last five starts between Daytona and Talladega.  The driver of the No. 10 Ford has crashed and DNF's in his last two superspeedway events, which were this season's Daytona 500 and last October's YellaWood 500 at Talladega.  The speed that Almirola has shown in the past hasn't been present in the last 14 months.  It's led to him racing further back in the field and putting him in jeopardy of being rolled up in the "big one".  Despite coming off a Top 10 at Richmond this past week, we recommend against using Almirola this week at Talladega.

Kyle Busch – At best Busch has had uneven luck with superspeedway racing over the years.  With only one win, and 26-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega, there are much better tier "A" drivers available.  Busch's success at this oval has been spotty, and in particular of late it's been leaner than normal.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has only one Top 10 in his last seven Talladega starts.  The average finish is checking in around 22.0 during the span.  Daytona has only been marginally better for the No. 18 team.  He had a runner-up finish in the 2019 Daytona 500, but it's been tough rowing at that oval ever since.  Busch is a bit of a boom-or-bust pick this week, but his 22-percent Top-10 rate on superspeedway ovals the last two seasons is a big caution flag.    

Martin Truex Jr. – While 2021 has been turning more and more positive for Truex as we go, there are the odd occasions to let the Joe Gibbs Racing star take a seat on the bench.  This would be one of those instances.  Superspeedway racing is just one of those areas where Truex struggles.  The veteran driver has only one Top-10 finish in his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega, and two DNF's during that span.  Truex has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last 10 Talladega starts, and that has brought his career Top-10 average at the oval down to just 25-percent.  Compared against a staggering 13 DNF's at the central Alabama oval.  Don't be tempted into deploying Truex in the GEICO 500.

Michael McDowell – It's likely a bit surprising to see this season's Daytona 500 winner in the slow down list this week, but it's for good reason.  This February's win in the Great American Race was more an instance of right-place right-time for the Front Row Motorsports veteran.  Prior to the big win, McDowell had failed to crack the Top 10 in his four prior superspeedway starts.  His Talladega stats are even more concerning.  The driver of the No. 34 Ford has 20 Cup Series starts in his career at Talladega Superspeedway.  Only one of those has netted a Top-10 finish and only two have netted Top-15 finishes.  McDowell has piled up nine DNF's over the years at this facility and two of those have come in his last two starts alone.  The 29.4 career average finish is a good indicator of his luck at this challenging track.