GEICO 500 Preview: Superspeedway Battle

Talladega Superspeedway is up next in our revamped NASCAR schedule.  The enormous tri-oval in Talladega, Ala., is the largest track on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit, measuring an amazing 2.66 miles in length, and stunning 33 degree banking in the turns.  The track's size and banking make it a wide-open, four-wide, heart-pounding racing experience where speeds are high and margin for error is small. 

What we witnessed in the Daytona 500 were heavy packs that would eventually spread out into double lines or multiple packs over long green-flag runs.  With the ability to race to the back or the front very quickly, moving through traffic presented little problem.  However, passing at the front among the leaders was a bit more difficult.  The 24 lead changes during the Great American Race were pretty much within the norm for the last three seasons at Daytona.  This season's Daytona 500 also saw the return of the multi-car crashes.  There were six caution periods due to accidents involving multiple cars.  With the return of the "big one" or "big ones" we may see some form of return to the sandbagging at the back.  Despite the stage racing point system, some drivers might feel better about staying out of the wrecks and being around at the end to contend for the win.  The 17 cars that DNF'd in the season-opener will make some drivers think twice about spending too much time in the eye of the storm.

The art of superspeedway racing hasn't changed despite all the rules and car changes over the past few seasons.  Once again, winning on these superspeedways has been reduced to the lowest common denominator, which is when to make your move and who to do it with.  As we saw at Daytona, Denny Hamlin's late charge to the front and duel with Ryan Newman in the closing laps allowed him to capture his third-career Daytona 500 victory.  We expect to see a similar racing style prevail at Talladega Superspeedway this weekend, but hopefully without the nasty crash that occurred coming to the finish line in the Daytona 500. 

Speaking of the race earlier this season at Daytona, we can rely on those results to some extent in looking at the GEICO 500 this weekend.  The cars that were strong at Daytona in February will likely be the same to run up front on Sunday at Talladega Superspeedway.  You can only put so much faith in historical stats and strong cars.  At the end of the day, the driver that keeps all the doors and tires on his car and finishes the race is as good as gold.  As far as recent historical data is concerned, we have years of Talladega electronic scoring to rely on for our fantasy racing picks this week.  The loop stats in the table below cover the last 15 years or 30 races at Talladega Superspeedway.

We witnessed Chevrolet lose their grip of dominance on this superspeedway in 2012.  Since then the Alabama oval has become solidly a Ford dominated track.  Drivers from that manufacturer, specifically the camps of Penske, Roush and Stewart Haas Racing, have claimed eight of the last nine wins at Talladega.  The only outlier to this data has been Chase Elliott's victory for Chevrolet in April of 2019.  It was a one-two-three Chevy finish that afternoon with Elliott being followed by Alex Bowman and Ryan Preece for the Chevy sweep of the Top 3 spots.  Ford drivers Joey Logano and Aric Almirola were fast and led a lot of laps that Spring afternoon, but it would be Elliott that would be savvy enough to prevail.

When the Cup Series returned to Talladega in the Fall of last year, Ford would rally back to victory lane.  Ryan Blaney would drive impressively and lead 35 laps en route to his first-ever Talladega victory.  Ford drivers took four of the Top 5 spots that afternoon, so it seems that this manufacturer re-established their position of power at the Alabama oval.  What's interesting is that there have only been three wins-ever for Toyota drivers at Talladega Superspeedway.  Denny Hamlin was the last to pull the feat for that manufacturer way back in 2014.  Tony Stewart and Kyle Busch own the only other Toyota wins at this facility, and those go even further back in the record books.  It would seem that history and odds would heavily favor a Ford driver hoisting the trophy this Sunday at Talladega, with Chevy drivers having a modest chance at the upset, and Toyota drivers being long-shot spoilers. 

Given what we saw in the Daytona 500 earlier this season, Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski should head up the assault for Ford once again this weekend.  Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman and William Byron will likely be Chevy's strongest contenders.  For Toyota it will most likely rest solely on the shoulders of Denny Hamlin to pull the major upset for that manufacturer.  Talladega races always hold plenty of thrills as well as surprises.  There could be a manufacturer swing in the offing for the GEICO 500.  We'll take an in-depth look at past history at Talladega and recent trends on superspeedway ovals and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues this Sunday afternoon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – Our last Talladega winner has really stepped up his game on the superspeedway ovals.  Blaney won last October's 1000Bulbs.com 500 at Talladega Superspeedway in impressive style.  He led 35 laps that October afternoon and edged Ryan Newman at finish line by just .007 seconds to capture his first-career Talladega win.  The No. 12 Penske Racing Ford team didn't disappoint in their next superspeedway start.  The season-opening Daytona 500 saw Blaney racing for the win on the last lap when the now infamous Newman crash occurred, and Blaney crossed the finish line second for a brilliant runner-up performance in the Great American Race.  The young driver sports just a lowly 33-percent Top-10 rate on the Daytona and Talladega ovals over the past couple seasons, but most importantly he's now showing the speed to lead laps and win races.  Blaney will be a top contender to win in Sunday's GEICO 500.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing star has been the gold-standard in superspeedway racing over the past few seasons, and he has the stats to back that title up.  Logano is a three-time winner at Talladega Superspeedway, with all three victories coming since the 2015 season.  He also led 37 laps and registered an impressive fourth-place finish this event one year ago, so we know the superspeedway speed is currently in the No. 22 Ford.  Logano has only finished outside the Top 5 once in his last five Talladega starts.  He has always tended to perform and finish at bit better at this oval than the one in Daytona.  When we get down to crunch time in the final laps of these races the Penske Racing star is nearly always racing for the win.  Logano will be a strong favorite to take home a fourth Talladega trophy this Sunday.

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been a near-weekly race winning contender each event since NASCAR resumed action in May.  Elliott will race with the leaders once again this weekend at the immense Alabama oval.  The last four races between Daytona and Talladega have seen this young driver step up his game.  In this event one year ago, we saw Elliott led 45 laps and dominate the afternoon.  He would walkway from that GEICO 500 with his first Talladega trophy.  He returned to the tack last fall and won the pole position, led 19 laps and finished eighth in that wild affair.  In the last four-combined superspeedway races we've seen Elliott lead 90 total laps and compete for victories.  He's finally come of age in this style of racing, and will be a factor in the outcome of the GEICO 500.         

Brad Keselowski – The five-time Talladega winner has a real expertise at superspeedway racing.  While Keselowski's luck hasn't been as good of late with this form of high-stakes racing, the No. 2's incredible speed is still there.  The veteran Penske Racing driver has led a combined 74 laps in his last four Talladega starts.  Two of those starts have ended in crashes and DNF's, so you could say Keselowski is the boom-or-bust play of the contenders this week.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford had great speed at Daytona back in February.  Keselowski led 30 laps and looked like a good bet to win before a crash on lap 185 took him out of the running.  There's no doubt that Keselowski will be racing up front early and often in Sunday's GEICO 500.  The only question is will his luck hold up or not? 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – This season's Daytona 500 winner always warrants fantasy racing consideration when Talladega weekend rolls around.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has one win and 11 Top-10 finishes at the central Alabama oval.  He has been a top performer on the superspeedway circuit the last two years with two victories, five Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in the last nine Daytona and Talladega events combined.  The No. 11 Toyota team is presently among the series best when the haulers unload at either of these two ovals.  Hamlin's third-place finish at Talladega last October and his win in this season's Daytona 500 is proof of his homerun potential when we visit these big tracks.  He should bring the same speed and tenacity to this 500-mile race at Talladega. 

Aric Almirola – Almirola possesses a gift for superspeedway racing.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran showed that skill when he won at Talladega in the fall of 2018.  He has spent several seasons building a good resume on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega, and now he finally has a team equipped to maximize his skill.  Of late, Almirola has nabbed two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last two seasons of racing between Daytona and Talladega.  The veteran driver rides a seven-race Talladega Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  If you're looking for a driver with surprise potential this weekend, the No. 10 Stewart Haas Racing team and Almirola are great candidates.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has become a specialty fantasy racing play on these superspeedway ovals.  Stenhouse nabbed a pair of victories in 2017 at both Talladega and Daytona, and he added a pair of Talladega Top-5 finishes in 2018.  The driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet showed great speed in the season-opening Daytona 500.  Stenhouse won the pole position and led 24 laps before race-flow saddled him with a subpar finish.  Talladega Superspeedway in particular has been kind to the veteran JTG Daugherty Racing driver.  Stenhouse has a win and eight Top-10 finishes in just 13-career starts.  The miniscule average finish at Dega of 11.6 for this driver and team is impossible to ignore.   

Ryan Newman – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran is returning to his first superspeedway after his scary crash and injuries in the season-opening Daytona 500.  Newman will have to face some demons for sure, but this form of racing has been by far his best the last couple seasons.  The driver of the No. 6 Ford has made 36-career starts at the Alabama oval.  He's come away with close to 100 laps led and 15 Top 10's during that time.  Four of Newman's last five starts at Talladega Superspeedway have netted Top-10 finishes.  That dovetails nicely with his recent superspeedway record.  Newman has seven Top-10 finishes in his last nine (78-percent) combined Daytona and Talladega starts.  The veteran driver was racing for the win coming to the checkered flag in February's Daytona 500, and that shouldn't be forgotten.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Talladega & solid upside

Kurt Busch – The 2017 Daytona 500 winner has been a consistent performer on the superspeedways for his entire NASCAR career.  Busch owns 20 Top-10 finishes in 38-career Talladega starts, and that works out to an impressive 53-percent in this high stakes form of racing.  The veteran driver has never won at Talladega but he's been painfully close on many occasions over his 19-season career.  Busch finished sixth-place in this event one year ago, and he's led a combined 124 laps in his last three Talladega starts.  He returned to Talladega last October and led 16 laps before being rolled up in a late race crash.  We'll be shocked if he's not racing inside the Top 10 when crunch time arrives this Sunday afternoon.

Austin Dillon – On a track that takes a lot of luck and skill to succeed, Dillon has been excelling in both categories over the years at both Talladega and Daytona.  The driver of the Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet is the 2018 Daytona 500 winner, and he has numerous Top-10 and Top-15 finishes at both ovals.  Dillon won the pole position for this event one year ago and cracked the Top-15 in that GEICO 500.  He returned in October of last year and earned an even more impressive sixth-place finish in the 1000Bulbs.com 500.  Dillon kicked off this season with a respectable 12th-place finish in the Daytona 500.  Superspeedway racing has always been a strength of Dillon and he shouldn't disappoint in the GEICO 500. 

Alex Bowman – Bowman has had an up-and-down campaign to this point, but his high marks are becoming a bit easier to predict.  Superspeedway racing has been a strength of the No. 88 team for years, and Bowman has carried on with that tradition since taking over this ride from Dale Earnhardt Jr.  The last two seasons of superspeedway racing has yielded three Top 10's and two of those have come at the Talladega oval.  It would appear that he prefers this track to the one in Florida.  Bowman has always qualified well here with starting grid spots of seventh-, ninth- and second-place in his last three Talladega qualifying effort.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver led 7 laps and finished runner-up to Chase Elliott in this event one year ago.      

Tyler Reddick – The rookie dynamo has been All-World in racing any track since NASCAR has resumed action.  We expect superspeedway racing to be no different.  Reddick has piled up a string of Top-10 and Top-15 finishes since racing resumed in mid-May, and he's coming off a brilliant Top-5 finish at Homestead this past Sunday.  The driver of the No. 8 RCR Chevrolet has only two-career Cup Series superspeedway starts to his credit, and both of those came at Daytona.  The results have not come to this point, but we would imagine Reddick will warm greatly to the wider lanes of racing at Talladega Superspeedway.  With Richard Childress muscle powering his No. 8 Chevrolet, we expect Reddick to be one of the more impressive rookies in the field for the GEICO 500. 

Corey Lajoie – The results don't lie.  Lajoie's big oval racing has done all the talking the past year.  The Go FAS Racing veteran has claimed all three of his career Top 10's on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega.  Lajoie rides a string of 18th-, 11th-, sixth-, seventh- and eighth-place finishes in the last five-combined starts between the two superspeedways into this Sunday's 500-mile battle.  In this event one year ago, he peddled to a respectable 11th-place finish in that GEICO 500.  Lajoie returned to central Alabama last October and upped that performance with a strong seventh-place finish in the 1000Bulbs.com 500.  The season-opening Daytona 500 saw Lajoie racing among the leaders on that final lap and capturing a strong eighth-place finish in the Daytona 500.  Lajoie has deep off the bench fantasy racing appeal in this Talladega weekend. 

Ty Dillon – If there's one thing that Dillon seems to excel at, it would be superspeedway racing.  The Germain Racing driver has quite a six-season resume on these large ovals in his No. 13 Chevrolet.  Dillon has four Top 10's and six Top 15's in his last two seasons of racing between Daytona and Talladega.  Dillon seems to have a nose for the draft, and who to partner with late in these races to get to the front.  He sports an impressive 15.8 average finish between these two superspeedways during the last two years.  Dillon's six-career Talladega starts have netted finishes of 13th-, 11th-, 15th-,15th-, 17th- and 10th-place.  That's pretty good for an oval that requires as much luck as skill to succeed. 

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – At best Busch has had uneven luck with superspeedway racing over the years.  With only one win, and 28-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega, there are much better tier "A" drivers available.  Busch's success at this oval has been spotty, and in particular of late it's been leaner than normal.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has only one Top 10 in his last five Talladega starts.  The average finish is checking in around 19.0 during the span.  Daytona has only been marginally better for the No. 18 team.  He had a runner-up finish in the 2019 Daytona 500, but it's been tough rowing at that oval ever since.  Busch is a bit of a boom-or-bust pick this week, but his 22-percent Top-10 rate on superspeedway ovals the last two seasons is a big caution flag.    

Martin Truex Jr. – While 2020 has been turning more and more positive for Truex, there are the odd occasions to let the Joe Gibbs Racing star take a seat on the bench.  This would be one of those instances.  Superspeedway racing is just one of those areas where Truex struggles.  The veteran driver has only one Top-10 finish in his last nine starts between Daytona and Talladega, and three DNF's during that span.  It seems to start with poor qualifying, starting back in the field, and getting rolled up in other drivers' troubles.  Truex has failed to crack the Top 10 in his last eight Talladega starts, and that has brought his career Top-10 average at the oval down to just 27-percent.  Compared against a staggering 13 DNF's at the central Alabama oval.  Don't be tempted into deploying Truex in the GEICO 500.

Kevin Harvick – In keeping with the save fantasy racing starts theme, we offer Harvick to continue that line of thinking.  Despite being a one-time Talladega winner, he just doesn't crack the Top 10 frequently enough here to justify a fantasy racing start.  In 38-career starts at Dega, Harvick has only netted 15 Top-10 finishes (40-percent).  That's better than the series average, but still low among the elite tier drivers.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford has only cracked the Top 10 once in his last six Talladega starts.  That's a bit of a disturbing trend for a driver that's closer to 40-percent for his career.  Harvick's last two seasons of superspeedway racing has been lean with just two Top 10's in nine-combined starts (22-percent) between Daytona and Talladega.  That doesn't exactly fill us with confidence for his chances this weekend. 

Jimmie Johnson – The 2020 campaign has been pretty successful to this point for Johnson and the No. 48 team.  The seven-time champion has racked up six Top 10's in the first 12 events and stands a respectable 11th-place in the driver standings.  Superspeedway racing has been tough on this veteran driver of late.  Johnson's last two seasons of Daytona/Talladega action have seen three Top-10 finishes vs. four DNF's.  That's a real mixed bag.  Most of his success has come at Daytona, while most of his heartache has come at Talladega.  Johnson only has two Top 10's in his last nine Talladega starts.  With a career 36-percent Top-10 rate at Talladega Superspeedway he's a below average performer at this oval anyway.  It's best to keep Johnson on the bench this week and save his starts for better tracks.