Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Course: Yas Marina Circuit
Circuit Length: 5.281 KM
Laps: 58
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Preview
For the second straight season, we won't have any drama in the final grand prix in terms of the Driver or Constructor Championship. However, there's still plenty to race for, particularly in the latter category. After poor results in the Sao Paulo and Las Vegas Grand Prix, Mercedes has only a four-point advantage over Ferrari for second place. Surprisingly, Aston Martin has also seemingly pulled itself up off the mat to challenge McLaren for fourth place in the Constructor standings, though they'll still need big results as they sit at an 11-point deficit. The final battles are at the bottom of the standings, where Williams will try to hold off Alpha Tauri for seventh, Alpha Tauri fending off Alfa Romeo for eighth and Haas trying to get out of the cellar. For a season that's been panned as boring by many, there's a lot at stake here.
The driver standings typically don't generate as much chatter unless it's for the top spot, but Carlos Sainz Jr., Fernando Alonso and Lando Norris all have a reasonable chance for fourth place. Sainz and Alonso enter the race at 200 points apiece, while Norris is five points off their pace. This will also mark Logan Sargeant's final opportunity to leave enough of an impression on Williams to retain his seat for 2024.
Key Stats
Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Course: Yas Marina Circuit
Circuit Length: 5.281 KM
Laps: 58
Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Preview
For the second straight season, we won't have any drama in the final grand prix in terms of the Driver or Constructor Championship. However, there's still plenty to race for, particularly in the latter category. After poor results in the Sao Paulo and Las Vegas Grand Prix, Mercedes has only a four-point advantage over Ferrari for second place. Surprisingly, Aston Martin has also seemingly pulled itself up off the mat to challenge McLaren for fourth place in the Constructor standings, though they'll still need big results as they sit at an 11-point deficit. The final battles are at the bottom of the standings, where Williams will try to hold off Alpha Tauri for seventh, Alpha Tauri fending off Alfa Romeo for eighth and Haas trying to get out of the cellar. For a season that's been panned as boring by many, there's a lot at stake here.
The driver standings typically don't generate as much chatter unless it's for the top spot, but Carlos Sainz Jr., Fernando Alonso and Lando Norris all have a reasonable chance for fourth place. Sainz and Alonso enter the race at 200 points apiece, while Norris is five points off their pace. This will also mark Logan Sargeant's final opportunity to leave enough of an impression on Williams to retain his seat for 2024.
Key Stats at Yas Marina Circuit
Races: 14
Winners from Pole: 9
Winners from front row: 13
Winners from top-5: 14
Previous 10 Yas Marina Circuit Winners
2022- Max Verstappen
2021 – Max Verstappen
2020 – Max Verstappen
2019- Lewis Hamilton
2018 – Lewis Hamilton
2017- Valtteri Bottas
2016- Lewis Hamilton
2015- Nico Rosberg
2014 – Lewis Hamilton
2013- Sebastian Vettel
We just came from the bright lights of the Las Vegas strip, but there are some interesting sights at Yas Marina at various points as the track runs under a hotel, there's a Ferrari-themed indoor park, and Yas Marina itself is littered with plenty of yachts. The race begins around twilight, so the track temperature cools significantly as the race wears on, making it a unique race in terms of tire management. Speaking of tires, demands on the Pierlli tire are relatively minimal, which became even more the case after track modifications to make the track faster and more flowing as we saw for the first time in last year's edition of the grand prix. As a result, teams were sent with the softest set of tires for the weekend, which has been the typical allocation. This season, Ferrari has done well at faster tracks (Monza and LAs Vegas are recent examples), and McLaren has also typically experienced success on this type of circuit.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $17,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Lando Norris - $9,400
Charles Leclerc - $8,800
Sergio Perez - $8,400
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Pierre Gasly - $5,200
Esteban Ocon - $5,000
Lance Stroll - $4,800
DraftKings Tier 4 Values
Alex Albon - $4,400
Yuki Tsunoda - $3,800
Constructor Values
McLaren - $9,200
Ferrari - $8,800
Aston Martin - $5,000
Alpine- $3,800
Formula 1 DFS Picks for Abu Dhabi Grand Prix
Captain – Lando Norris - $14,100
Lewis Hamilton - $9,800
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $8,000
Lance Stroll - $4,800
Alex Albon - $4,400
Constructor – Ferrari - $8,800
Norris suffered a big crash in Las Vegas, ending his race prematurely and sending him to the hospital. While he was quickly cleared, there is at least some concern about his mentality heading into the weekend. At the same time, McLaren has plenty to race for, already covered above. Norris is the leader of the team and I expect him to come through even on the quick turnaround.
Ferrari has been charging up the constructor standings. In large part, that's been thanks to Sainz, who has finished inside the top five in five of eight races since the summer break. He has finished inside the top six in every race in that span. Stacking with him the team as constructor creates a lot of upside.
Hamilton has been boom or bust of late, but there's some good value available so he's primarily an example of being able to pay up. The other option would be to ditch Albon, pay down from Hamilton (Perez would be my choice) and use the difference in salary to jump from Albon into the middle tiers. Paying down at constructor would allow enough savings to keep Hamilton and move up significantly from Albon, with Oscar Piastri ($8,600) or Charles Leclerc options with that route.
Stroll has gotten a lot of criticism throughout the last few months, but he's suddenly delivered consecutive fifth-place finishes. He's underpriced relative to his form and teammate Fernando Alonso. Finally, Albon is at significant risk of not reaching points, but he's a near lock to beat teammate Logan Sargeant.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Qualifying Winner – Charles Leclerc (+390)
Podium Finish – Charles Leclerc (+175); Carlos Sainz Jr. (+310)
Top-Six Finish – Lance Stroll (+1000)
Race Props – Both Ferrari cars to finish in the Top 6 (-250); Red Bull to win the race and Lando Norris to finish in the Top 6 (-180); Both Aston Martin cars to finish in the Points (+110)
As expected, Max Verstappen is the heavy favorite to win the race (-330) and is very likely to take first place. We'll focus elsewhere as a result. This article has focused heavily on the momentum of Ferrari, so a podium finish for one of their drivers is a distinct possibility, especially because Sainz has performed on par with Leclerc across the last stretch of the season.
We've talked about Stroll as well. His top-five finish in Vegas was fortunate based on safety car timing and key contenders having their race compromised, but his odds are out of line with reality. Again, that's particularly true when considering the comparison to his teammate for a top-six finish (Alonso (+195)).
Though they aren't framed that way by FanDuel, there are a lot of interesting teaser-type bets being offered. Some of my favorites were listed above, but there are a wide range of "specials" available. Focusing on props that include Aston Martin, Ferrari, or McLaren are most appealing because each is underpriced in the market at some level.
