This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
The intermediate oval is the most frequent type of track found on the Sprint Cup Series schedule. This event should set the tone for these style ovals for at least the first third of the season. While Atlanta has some minor differences that set it apart from tracks like Texas and Charlotte, there are still enough similarities to draw some comparisons. Still, we need to take a quick look at the recent loop statistics of AMS and get a feel for our driver group before we make any predictions for this weekend's race. Since this is the first race of 2015 at this track and just the second race of the season, we'll be drawing on some information from last season and beyond. So keep that little tidbit in mind when reviewing this electronic scoring statistics. Here are the loop stats for the last 16 races at Atlanta Motor Speedway.
| DRIVER | AVG FINISH | QUALITY PASSES | FASTEST LAPS | LAPS LED | LAPS IN TOP 15 | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Gordon | 9.4 | 612 | 296 | 322 | 4,161 | 106.0 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 10.7 | 582 | 280 | 420 | 4,381 | 104.9 |
| Carl Edwards | 15.4 | 552 | 371 | 398 | 4,038 | 100.1 |
| Tony Stewart | 12.1 | 509 | 233 | 502 | 3,353 | 98.1 |
| Matt Kenseth | 8.8 | 544 | 201 | 258 | 3,749 | 97.9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 16.8 | 434 | 263 | 351 | 3,312 | 97.4 |
| Kurt Busch | 14.7 | 567 | 268 | 541 | 3,150 | 94.3 |
| Kyle Busch | 14.3 | 514 | 229 | 421 | 3,164 | 92.8 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 12.3 | 535 | 227 | 300 | 3,382 | 92.7 |
| Kyle Larson | 8.0 | 54 | 1 | 0 | 263 | 91.1 |
| Greg Biffle | 15.5 | 539 | 237 | 289 | 3,466 | 90.8 |
| Kevin Harvick | 16.3 | 470 | 280 | 373 | 3,045 | 90.4 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 19.3 | 591 | 146 | 247 | 3,678 | 90.1 |
| Kasey Kahne | 20.4 | 402 | 252 | 349 | 2,882 | 87.2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 24.0 | 230 | 56 | 36 | 1,311 | 85.8 |
| Clint Bowyer | 21.1 | 360 | 88 | 114 | 2,448 | 83.0 |
| Brian Vickers | 14.3 | 501 | 40 | 8 | 2,479 | 81.9 |
| Ryan Newman | 18.6 | 392 | 44 | 24 | 2,013 | 75.4 |
| Jamie McMurray | 19.3 | 458 | 29 | 0 | 2,125 | 73.9 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 17.2 | 256 | 40 | 1 | 1,024 | 72.8 |
Given what has happened at Atlanta Motor Speedway in recent seasons, it's almost certain that the Hendrick Chevrolet teams and Gibbs Toyota teams will be battling for the win this weekend. We expect the race winner to most likely come from one of these two stables since Hendrick and Gibbs drivers have led the most laps and captured the majority wins at AMS over the last four seasons. However, we can't count out the Ford teams of Penske Racing either. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano were excellent on these style tracks last year and can pull the upset any given weekend. So there's a good chance that the manufacturer Ford will throw their hats in the ring as well. There will only be a few drivers to contend with these super-stables at Atlanta Motor Speedway. We expect the "outside threat" to come from Stewart Haas Racing star Kevin Harvick. The reigning champion has performed well in recent races at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and the driver of the No. 4 Chevrolet was the most dominant driver in the series last season on the 1.5-mile ovals. We'll give you a run down of the drivers you need this weekend at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and a few who could surprise in the Folds of Honor Quik Trip 500 at Atlanta.
The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win
Jeff Gordon - When we look back to the season finale at Homestead, the last time we went racing on an intermediate oval, it was the No. 24 Chevrolet of Gordon that was pounding the field into the pavement. Some late pit strategy errors led to that one getting away from Gordon, but it no less sells the point of the team's speed on 1.5-mile ovals. The Hendrick Motorsports star has also had some recent success at Atlanta. Gordon has led 169 laps, one win and one runner-up finish in his last four trips the mid-Georgia quad-oval. If he hopes to get his farewell tour off with a bang, a win at Atlanta Motor Speedway could go a long way.
Kevin Harvick - The defending champion was painfully close to winning last season at Atlanta. Harvick won the pole and led a whopping 195 laps before misfortune saddled him with a sub-par 19th-place finish. The driver of the No. 4 Chevrolet should be elated to visit Atlanta this Sunday afternoon. He won his first career Cup victory at AMS in 2001, and he's finished in the Top 10 in three of his last four trips to Atlanta's oval. Considering that the Stewart Haas Racing star won at the Homestead season-finale, he is our last winner on this style oval. That's something to underscore before making out your fantasy racing lineups this weekend.
Joey Logano - The resume at Atlanta Motor Speedway isn't bare, but it's not bursting with incredible stats either. Logano finished runner-up at this oval two years ago, and otherwise it's been a series of unimpressive performances. We have good reason to believe that will change this time around. The Penske Racing driver was one of the most dominant drivers of 2014 on the cookie cutter ovals with 222 laps led, one victory and five Top-10 finishes. Logano's 8.4 average finish position on these ovals last season was only rivaled by Kevin Harvick. There's more than ample evidence to suggest that he moves from being a Top-10 finisher to a contender for wins at these facilities in 2015.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin turned in some of his best intermediate oval performances of last season during the 10-race Chase for the Cup stretch at the end of 2014. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota led 75 laps and claimed all Top-10 finishes on all five of the intermediate ovals of the Chase. Couple that with his recent Atlanta success, and you have a perfect storm of sorts brewing for this weekend. Hamlin's recent AMS resume holds 222 laps led, one pole, one win and three Top 10s in his last five trips to Atlanta Motor Speedway. If you're looking for a sleeper pick among the top contenders to win this weekend, you couldn't do any better than Hamlin and his Joe Gibbs Racing team.
Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the Top 10 with an outside shot at winning
Matt Kenseth - While Kenseth has never visited victory lane at Atlanta Motor Speedway, we can't overlook him in our fantasy racing picks this weekend. The veteran Joe Gibbs Racing driver has always been proficient at AMS, so he should hit the ground running on this intermediate oval. Kenseth was one of the more consistent drivers on these style ovals last season with seven Top 10s in 10 starts. Four of his last six trips to Hampton, Georgia have yielded Top-10 finishes, including a pair of runner-up efforts. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has 306 career laps led at AMS with a strong 58-percent Top-10 rate at the oval. Kenseth is a very dependable play in this 500-mile event at Atlanta.
Jimmie Johnson - Johnson owns three career wins at the oval in Atlanta. That's second only to Jeff Gordon and Bobby Labonte among active drivers. As we get the 2015 season underway, this is a great venue for the Hendrick Motorsports star to have second in the schedule. Johnson owns well over 400 career laps led at this facility. That complements his excellent 61-percent career Top-10 rate at AMS. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet had his issues last season, but they didn't come on intermediate ovals, as his two victories and six Top 10s on these style tracks in 2014 attests. Johnson is poised to extend his success at Atlanta Motor Speedway this weekend.
Brad Keselowski - The Penske Racing star won two races and finished in the Top-10 five times on intermediate tracks in 2014. Keselowski has established himself as one of the top contenders when the Sprint Cup Series visits these style ovals. Keselowski's Atlanta resume is a bit spotty, but he has managed a pair of Top 10s and 36 laps led in his last four visits to the central Georgia track. DNF's have cut short two hopeful attempts at AMS in each of the last two seasons. If anyone is coming to Atlanta Motor Speedway with a chip on their shoulder and with something to prove this weekend it's Keselowski and his No. 2 Ford team.
Kasey Kahne - Our last Atlanta winner used the victory as a clutch, Chase-clinching performance last fall. Kahne now has three career victories at Atlanta Motor Speedway with over 350 laps led at the oval during his Sprint Cup career. Additionally, the Hendrick Motorsports veteran has a solid 50-percent Top-10 rate at the central Georgia track on the strength of his nine-career Top 10s at the facility. Kahne will be breaking in a new crew chief for this visit to Atlanta, but that shouldn't be much of a concern. His expertise at this oval should help ease Keith Rodden's growing pains as the two begin to develop some driver/crew chief chemistry.
Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Atlanta who can provide a solid finish
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - Due to some mistakes at the end of the Daytona 500 cost Earnhardt the win, he should have no trouble building on that strong third-place finish this week at Atlanta. The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet has been a steady performer on these intermediate ovals the last few seasons. He racked up a strong sixth-place finish at the similar oval in Texas at the end of last season. As for Earnhardt's recent Atlanta history, well it has some color too. With seventh-, eighth- and 11th-place finishes in his last three visits, AMS ranks as one of his better cookie cutter ovals. Moving the race from night to day could even boost his performance at this facility.
Carl Edwards - The back-flipping Joe Gibbs Racing star has been a steady performer on intermediate ovals over his career at Roush Fenway Racing. He hopes to carry that success forward to his new No. 19 Toyota team. Given Gibbs' excellence on these ovals, it shouldn't be difficult to do. Edwards has a pair of Top-5 finishes and 82 laps led in his last four trips to central Georgia. The veteran driver is a three-time winner at this oval, and his loop stats in the chart above show that he's one of the top performers in the Sprint Cup Series at this facility. Edwards' first start at Atlanta with Joe Gibbs Racing could be an explosive performance.
Kyle Larson - Larson's first career start at AMS last season didn't intimidate the young driver in the least. He went out and qualified third and finished eighth in last August's Oral-B USA 500. That was one of a number of impressive outings for the Chip Ganassi Racing youngster on intermediate ovals. The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet is looking to rebound from a crash and DNF late in the Daytona 500 last weekend, so Larson is on the comeback trail this week at Atlanta. He grabbed six Top-10 finishes on these intermediate ovals last season, so they appear to be a strength of the young driver.
Martin Truex Jr. - Coming off a disastrous 2014 season, Truex appeared to put it all behind him with a strong Speedweeks at Daytona and just his second-career Top-10 effort at the historic Florida oval. Now the Furniture Row Racing veteran comes to one of his favorite tracks for the second event of the season. Truex has one career pole, 247 laps led and four Top-10 finishes at Atlanta Motor Speedway. Most of this success has piled up in just the last couple seasons as his earlier career at AMS was subpar to say the least. While we don't expect the No. 78 team to be racing with the leaders in the Folds of Honor Quik Trips 500, there's no reason not to expect Truex to crack the Top 15 after 500-miles of action at Atlanta this Sunday.
Jamie McMurray - McMurray finished the 2014 season on fire on these intermediate ovals. The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran claimed third-, fifth- and fifth-place finishes at Charlotte, Texas and Homestead to wrap up the Chase last season. It's not unreasonable to expect the No. 1 Chevrolet team to carry that momentum into the new season with our first visit to Atlanta. McMurray has steady 11th- and 12th-place finishes in his last two trips to AMS. It's interesting to note that he was an even more productive driver at this facility when the racing was during the daytime before NASCAR switched it to nights in recent years. The change back could further enhance his potential for this 500-mile race.
Regan Smith - The Xfinity Series championship contender has become the driver of choice for Stewart Haas Racing to fill the void left by Kurt Busch's suspension in the No. 41 Chevrolet. With 173 starts of Sprint Cup experience, Smith is hardly a newcomer to NASCAR's top division. He has six career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway with his last effort being a steady 14th-place finish in 2012 for former boss Furniture Row Racing. SHR fielded excellent cars for Busch on these intermediate ovals last year, so the car should be very good. For a driver who may be off the radar screen for many fantasy racing players, Smith is a good bet for a Top-15 finish at the end of your fantasy racing lineup this weekend.
Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week
Kurt Busch - Normally we'd have Busch ranked in the solid plays list or above, but this three-time Atlanta winner's off-track distractions finally caught up to him this past week at Daytona. NASCAR has indefinitely suspended the "Outlaw" until further notice. The findings of a Family Court Judge in Delaware last week stated that Busch had committed an act of domestic violence against his former girlfriend and NASCAR acted swiftly to suspend the driver of the No. 41 Chevrolet. You can cross Busch's name off the consideration list in weekly lineup leagues for the foreseeable future until he can possibly be reinstated by NASCAR. For the time being it looks like journeyman driver Regan Smith will pilot the Stewart Haas entry and have some reasonable fantasy racing value in relief of Busch.
Kyle Busch - It was a tough Speedweeks at Daytona for the Busch family. After the elder brother's suspension, the younger brother was involved in one of the most violent Xfinity Series crashes we've seen in some time. Busch hit the inside wall past the exit of pit road on the front stretch in his No. 54 Toyota. That portion of the Daytona infield wall is not protected with SAFER barrier to absorb the impact and Busch hit the wall at close to 100 mph head-on. The impact broke his lower right leg and left foot in the crash. He underwent surgery that night in Daytona and will be sidelined for an indefinite period of time. It looks like truck series star Matt Crafton could get most if not all the starts in the No. 18 Toyota for the foreseeable future.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - Now that Stenhouse has started season three and climbed the seniority ladder at Roush Fenway Racing, there will be a lot of pressure on the No. 17 team to deliver. We didn't see much pop at Daytona last weekend, but this week's intermediate oval will be a truer measure of this team's current level. Stenhouse didn't crack the Top 10 in the final 11 races of 2014 so there's a lot to prove. His Atlanta history shows 16th- and 20th-place finishes in two career starts. The intermediate ovals weren't his best tracks, with only three Top-20 finishes in 10 events and an average finish of 22.4. Stenhouse simply hasn't proved his worth on these style ovals to this point in his career.
Tony Stewart - If there's a driver with something to prove coming to Atlanta this weekend, it has to be Stewart at the top of that list. Coming off the worst two-season stretch of his career, Smoke didn't exactly hit the reset button at Daytona last week. His early race accident saddled him with the DNF and the start to 2015 that he wasn't anticipating. Unfortunately for the traditionally slow-starting Stewart, Atlanta won't cut him much slack this weekend. The veteran was abysmal during last season's Chase on cookie cutter ovals with finishes of 17th-, 21st-, 11th- and 43rd-place down the stretch. AMS has been just as tough with no finishes inside the Top 20 in his last two trips to the oval.
