This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Overton's 400
Location: Long Pond, Pa.
Course: Pocono Raceway
Format: 2.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 160
Race Preview
Another first-time winner for the season added his name to the playoff list last week in Indianapolis. Kasey Kahne took advantage of the carnage ahead of him, as well as a well-time pit stop and restart, to capture an unlikely win to move solidly into the playoffs. His victory leaves Clint Bowyer on the outside looking in with just four playoff spots remaining for drivers who have yet to win in 2017. There are six races left in the regular season, and that means teams without wins are under significant pressure to get the job done. Kyle Busch, Jamie McMurray, Chase Elliott and Matt Kenseth hold the non-winners playoff spots currently, but could slide down the order if they continue to miss out on Victory Lane. Pocono Raceway is the venue for this week's battle, and the track has a history of producing first time winners. The last two victors at the track both fit that bill in Chris Buescher and Ryan Blaney. With the season beginning to wind down the tension continues to mount and everyone will be working to take the checkered flag in the Overton's 400.
Key Stats at Pocono Raceway
• Number of previous races: 79
• Winners from pole: 15
• Winners from top-5 starters: 46
• Winners from top-10 starters: 56
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 6
• Fastest race: 145.384 mph
Last 10 Pocono Winners
2017 spring - Ryan Blaney
2016 fall - Chris Buescher
2016 spring - Kurt Busch
2015 fall - Matt Kenseth
2015 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2014 fall - Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2014 spring - Dale Earnhardt Jr.
2013 fall - Kasey Kahne
2013 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2012 fall - Jeff Gordon
This weekend's race will be the second of the season at Pocono. Ryan Blaney held off Kevin Harvick to win in June after a late restart. Fresh tires and track position made the difference that day, and are likely to be deal breakers again this week. The long track enables teams to gamble on pit strategy to gain track position, which can sometimes backfire depending on how caution periods fall. Each turn is unique on this circuit, which means cars will perform differently throughout a lap. Someone strong in turn 1 could be slow off of turn 3. Everyone will look to maximize revs at the end of the long straights, though. Drivers have to get on the throttle early on corner exit to achieve that, and that will offer drivers the best opportunity to make passes. However, we have seen restarts become an essential component of a race-winning effort all season. Track position and timing could likely help determine the winner again this week.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Busch - $10,700
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,500
Kyle Larson - $10,100
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Denny Hamlin - $9,700
Jimmie Johnson - $9,600
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Brad Keselowski - $9,100
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Joey Logano - $8,800
Ryan Blaney - $8,700
Erik Jones - $8,300
Jamie McMurray - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Daniel Suarez - $7,200
Trevor Bayne - $6,500
Chris Buescher - $6,200
David Ragan - $5,100
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,500
Denny Hamlin - $9,700
Kurt Busch - $8,500
Erik Jones - $8,300
Ty Dillon - $6,600
Chris Buescher - $6,200
Pocono's second race of the season allows fantasy owners to grab a number of drivers in the safer lineup who have picked up their games recently. One of the favorites is sure to be Truex again. The Furniture Row Racing driver has been exceptional every week, and Sunday should be no different. Hamlin won in New Hampshire and had a strong showing at the Brickyard. His four Pocono wins are evidence that his recent uptick in finishes could continue this week. Results are also starting to add up for Kurt Busch. He has two top-10s in the last five races and has been more competitive recently. He also finished fourth at Pocono earlier this summer. Jones delivered a stellar Pocono debut in June when he finished third from the 15th starting position. He led 20 laps in that race and is entirely capable of repeating that performance. Dillon and Buescher finish off the lineup with both good Pocono histories as well as respectable recent trends. Both should be top-20 guys to target in this week's race.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $10,700
Kyle Larson - $10,100
Joey Logano - $,800
Ryan Blaney - $8,700
Trevor Bayne - $6,500
Matt DiBenedetto - $5,200
There will be a week where Kyle Busch turns his pace at the front of the field into a victory. He has yet to get the job done, but that doesn't mean he hasn't been close to signing the deal each week. Also, if Kyle Larson could fix the qualifying issues he has overcome the last three races he could be right up there with Busch and Truex. These two drivers come with a bit of risk, but are two of the fastest cars each and every week. Joey Logano has been enduring an even bigger slump. With teammate brad Keselowski finding his footing in recent weeks Logano should start pulling through, too. He finished fourth at Indianapolis last week, which should give him a big boost of confidence heading into Pocono. This higher-risk lineup also gives fantasy owners the most recent Pocono winner in Ryan Blaney. That win was no fluke and fantasy owners should feel confident choosing him this week as well. Trevor Bayne and Matt DiBenedetto fill the final two spots of the roster. Bayne was looking at an upset victory at Indianapolis last week while DiBenedetto was collecting a top-10 finish. Pocono a similar track to the Brickyard in many respects, and these two drivers have learned how to be in contention at the end.
