Crayon 301 Preview: Short Track Change Up

We make a return this week to the short track circuit after a long stretch of intermediate ovals and road courses. NASCAR's top division heads to the one-mile, flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Crayon 301 this Sunday afternoon. The bull ring at Loudon, New Hampshire is a true oval with variable banking of two to seven degrees in all turns, and one degree on both straight aways. It is a flat track in the purest sense. The handling of the race car is very important at this oval. How the car turns, how it exits the corners and how it holds the turns will dictate the driver's ability to pass or be passed at NHMS. A driver and crew chief's patience is tested to the max at this challenging short track. If adjustments can be made and an ill-handling car can be corrected over the course of a run, that driver and crew chief will reap the rewards of their persistence and patience. A lack of patience will usually end up in a wreck at this short track, as this typically leads to over-driving the car and pushing the speed/handling envelope a bit too far. Considering that last weekend at Atlanta we saw the aerodynamic factor and passing of a superspeedway, we could see a lack of patience manifest itself this weekend at Loudon. This oval is where the NASCAR adage "race the track, not the competition" was born. New Hampshire Motor Speedway embodies that statement to the highest degree.

This event is the only time we race at the Magic Mile this season after NASCAR scheduling took away one of the track's two annual dates in 2018. For tips on what we might expect this weekend, look no further than the earlier races at Martinsville and Phoenix. All are flat tracks, and while Martinsville is smaller, the handling, setup and racing are quite similar to Loudon. Phoenix has more speed than NHMS, but the flat track in Arizona boasts some similar characteristics to the oval in New England. While keeping these races in mind, it will still be helpful to take a look back at the recent historical statistics at the Loudon oval. The loop stats shown below cover the last 18 years or 31 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a track of streaks for several seasons. Once a manufacturer gets this place figured out, the teams tend to pile up the wins until the competition catches up and unseats them. From 2012 to 2013 Toyota reeled off three-straight victories at the Magic Mile. Brad Keselowski's victory in the summer of 2014 broke the Toyota string and set Ford up to win the next two events at the one-mile oval. More recently, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch swept the Magic Mile in the 2017 season and returned Toyota to dominance at the historic short track. That would last until 2018 when Kevin Harvick won back-to-back Loudon victories for Ford in 2018-19. Brad Keselowski and Almirola would then build on that Ford streak by winning the next two New Hampshire races in 2020 and 2021. However, Christopher Bell's win in this event one year ago handed control of Loudon back to Toyota and brought Ford's streak to an end. Will Toyota drivers and teams continue the streak this weekend? There's good reason to believe they will.

In this event one year ago we witnessed Bell rise late and lead the final 42 laps while extending to a 5-plus second margin over Chase Elliott to capture the win. It was a surprising performance for the young Joe Gibbs Racing driver to claim his first-ever win at the New England short track. There were several suitors for the win that afternoon in Loudon, and Martin Truex Jr. would lead a race-high 172 laps. The other strong drivers that afternoon were Bubba Wallace, Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin. With the way short track racing has gone this season, we should see some similar parity among drivers and manufacturers again this weekend. We'll take a look at the loop stats, the past history of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and current trends to determine who will dominate this Sunday afternoon at the one-mile oval in Loudon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is having a strong season and he's having a very good campaign on the short tracks in 2023. With a victory at Dover and a third-place finish at Martinsville most recently, Truex is positioned well coming to New England this weekend. Although the driver of the No. 19 Toyota has never won at Loudon, but he's led a staggering 916 laps here for his career. Truex has also cracked the Top 5 in five of his last seven starts at the Magic Mile. In this event one year ago, Truex led a race-high 172 laps from the pole position before eventually finishing fourth-place in the Ambetter 301. We believe he could capture his first-career win at the Loudon short track this Sunday afternoon.

Christopher Bell – Bell has always liked this flat, one-mile oval. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota won this event one year ago with a strong performance down the stretch run. Bell also finished runner-up at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2021. In Xfinity Series competition, Bell has won all three starts he's made at Loudon in that division of NASCAR. That's a pretty impressive accomplishment and it speaks to his excellence in racing at this track. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been strong on the Cup Series short track circuit in 2023. Bell has nabbed three Top 10's in the four events on ovals one-mile or less in size. We expect this driver and team to be a factor in the outcome of Sunday's Crayon 301.

Kyle Larson –  Larson has been pretty sharp on the short tracks this season. The Hendrick Motorsports star has victories at both Richmond and Martinsville and Larson was also Top 5 at Phoenix earlier this season. He is also a three-time runner-up finisher at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Larson cracks the Top 10 at Loudon at a respectable 50-percent rate and despite never having won here, the veteran driver is almost always challenging the Top 5 late in the race. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has never won at the Magic Mile, but considering how well Larson has performed on the small ovals in 2023, we wouldn't be surprised to see him pull into victory lane this Sunday afternoon.  

William Byron – Byron was a winner earlier this season at the similar flat short track in Phoenix and he was a Top-5 finisher at the Dover short track. With over 350 laps led on short tracks this season, these ovals have really been his best tracks in what has been a strong season. Byron has just five-career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and a pedestrian 13.8 average finish over that span. He's yet to really make a mark on this particular short track. However, we believe that will change this Sunday afternoon as Byron should post a career-best finish at the New England oval. We wouldn't rule out a possible challenge for the win in Sunday's 301-lap short track battle.    

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a three-time New Hampshire winner, and he's finished runner-up at this small oval on multiple occasions over the years. Loudon really is one of his favorite short tracks on the circuit. It's been a challenging season for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota, but Hamlin did nab a pair of Top-5 finishes recently at Martinsville and Dover, so the bull rings present an opportunity for this driver and team. With a 62-percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile, Hamlin is one of the more consistent performers at this facility in NASCAR's top division. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has upside at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and that easily makes him among one of the top solid plays this week.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his four short track starts this season. He finished runner-up at Phoenix, seventh-place at Martinsville and third-place at Dover. Blaney has not been stellar at the Magic Mile in his Cup Series career, but he does have four Top-10 finishes in his last six starts at New Hampshire. Those performances and 69 laps led have lowered Blaney's average finish at Loudon to a respectable 12.8. Coming off a Top-10 finish at Atlanta this past week, he has to be encouraged coming to New England this weekend. The driver of the No. 22 Ford will be a force in Sunday's Crayon 301.

Kevin Harvick – The four-time Loudon winner owns 14-career Top-5 finishes in 39 starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That 36-percent Top-5 rate at this flat oval ranks him among the best in the series. Harvick has led well over 800 laps for his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Earlier in his career, this wasn't one of his better short tracks on the circuit. However, the Stewart Haas Racing star has come on strong in recent seasons to reverse that trend. Harvick rides a five-race Loudon Top-10 streak into Sunday's Crayon 301. In an inconsistent season, the short tracks have rewarded Harvick with two Top 5's in four races thus far.

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a two-time New Hampshire winner and Logano has five Top 10's in his last six Loudon starts going into Sunday's short track battle. Logano's 13 Top-10 finishes at the Magic Mile check in at a respectable 54-percent rate, which has only been bolstered in recent seasons. The Penske Racing star grabbed seventh- and second-place finishes at the Richmond and Martinsville short tracks this season and that bodes well for his start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend. Logano's 10.0 average finish over his last five Loudon starts seems like a reasonable mark to expect this weekend at the New England short track.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at New Hampshire & solid upside

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has better short tracks in his resume, but he's still good enough at New Hampshire to warrant sleeper consideration. His Loudon stats aren't very impressive (33-percent Top-10 rate and no wins) but Elliott has been on point with his racing of late and short tracks have been kind to the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet. Elliott has 10th- and 11th-place finishes this season at Martinsville and Dover. He's led a combined 66 laps in his last two New Hampshire starts and is looking to build on his last finish at the one-mile oval which was an impressive runner-up finish one year ago. Elliott's not in race-winning form right now, but he's good enough to fetch a Top 10 at the Magic Mile.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been really impressive over his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Keselowski owns two-career victories and close to 600 laps led. The veteran driver boasts 15 Top-10 finishes which checks in at a strong 68-percent Top-10 rate.  Keselowski rides a four-race Loudon Top-10 streak into this weekend's Crayon 301. The veteran driver boasts pretty good stats on the short tracks this season with two Top 10's (Richmond and Dover) in four starts on ovals one-mile in size or less. The New Hampshire oval is a great track for this driver and team, and Keselowski has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks.

Ross Chastain – Chastain has scored impressive third- and second-place finishes this season at Richmond and Dover. Those are good indicators heading into this New Hampshire weekend. The Trackhouse Racing star has just four-career Cup starts at the Loudon short track, but he's come away with a pair of eighth-place finishes in the last two starts at the Magic Mile. Chastain has not been a big lap leader here, nor a great qualifier. However, the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has been good enough to race hard through the field and earn Top-10 finishes. We expect to see a similar performance this Sunday afternoon from this driver and team.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace doesn't have the career-long stats at Loudon to endorse a fantasy start this weekend. However, his last outing at the oval was a real eye-catcher. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota qualified fourth on the grid and raced to an impressive third-place finish in this event one year ago. That's difficult to ignore, and endorsed by a couple of Wallace's short track outings this season. Wallace's ninth-place finish at Martinsville bodes well, as well as his 12th-place finish at Dover. He was also an impressive runner-up finisher at the All-Star Race on the North Wilkesboro Speedway short track. We believe Wallace has what it takes to be a rewarding fantasy start in the Crayon 301. 

Aric Almirola – Almirola has not only led laps in four of his last five Loudon races (81 total) but he's also won a pole position and won this event two years ago. The recent hot streak at New Hampshire Motor Speedway includes third-, 11th-, seventh- and first-place finishes in the last five at this track. The only disappointment was last season's Ambetter 301, where Almirola finished 31st-place after getting into some trouble. However, the veteran driver of the No. 10 Ford still qualified well in that event (10th-place on the grid). Almirola raced to an impressive sixth-place finish earlier this season at the flat Martinsville short track, and we believe that's a great indicator of potential for this weekend.

Chase Briscoe – The biggest risk/reward driver this weekend is perhaps Briscoe and his No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing team. Short of a disappointment at Dover, he's been reasonably good on short tracks this season. Briscoe nabbed seventh-, 12th- and fifth-place finishes at Phoenix, Richmond and Martinsville. The driver of the No. 14 Ford hasn't been a world beater in his first two Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. However, he did register 6 laps led and a respectable 15th-place finish in the Ambetter 301. That experience will greatly aid Briscoe and his team this weekend. We believe he has Top-15 potential and possibly more in Sunday's Crayon 301.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a three-time New Hampshire winner, including as recently as 2017. Busch's 1,100+ laps led at Loudon and 36-percent career Top-5 rate at this one-mile oval can't be overlooked. However, Busch's last three starts at the Magic Mile are quite concerning. Two finishes outside the Top 30 due to crashes and a subpar 12th-place finish last season are his body of work at this one-mile oval the last three seasons. In addition, Busch has struggled on short tracks this season. With finishes of eighth-, 14th-, 21st- and 21st-place, the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is a 16.0 average finisher on tracks one-mile in size and less in 2023.  

Justin Haley – By a lot of measures this has been a career-best season for Haley. However, a bulk of that success is based on his strong intermediate oval performances. Short tracks have been a contrast, and not in a good way. The Kaulig Racing youngster has finishes of 27th-, 29th-, 28th- and 23rd-place on ovals one-mile in size and less this year. When it comes to the Magic Mile, Haley has just two-career Cup Series starts at the track. They were finishes of 28th- and 20th-place the last two seasons. The 24.0 average finish between the two doesn't instill much confidence in the No. 31 Chevrolet team. Pass up Haley in weekly lineup and salary cap leagues in Sunday's Crayon 301.  

Austin Cindric – While Cindric has shown some utility this season on superspeedways and road tracks, his short track performances have been cringe worthy. Finishes of 25th-, 28th-, 33rd- and 26th-place have been his body of work on ovals one-mile in size or less. Cindric hasn't been particularly experienced in Cup Series action at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. With just one start, albeit a respectable 13th-place finish, the young driver doesn't have a lot of experience at this track in NASCAR's top division. It's been a long, tough season for the No. 2 Penske Racing team. Cindric simply doesn't have the short track performance nor experience to risk a fantasy start on him this Sunday at Loudon.   

Alex Bowman – Bowman has become more of a short track performer in recent seasons than an intermediate oval expert as his reputation had been more historically. However, Loudon has been a tougher oval for the No. 48 team as compared to other tracks like Phoenix and Martinsville where Bowman has had much more success. The veteran Hendrick Motorsports driver has just one Top-10 in 11-career starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway for a lowly 9-percent Top-10 rate. The average finish checks in around 24.3 at Loudon for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. In this event one year ago, Bowman struggled in qualifying and suffered an early-race crash to finish 35th-place. He's simply too risky to consider for fantasy deployment at New Hampshire.