Coke Zero Sugar 400 Preview: Cut to the Chase

We return to racing under the lights this week.  The NASCAR Cup Series travels back to where the season started this weekend at Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. The second Daytona race of the season is usually held July 4th week every year, but this season's schedule shakeup has moved this thrilling night race to the finale of NASCAR's regular season.  This event will be the cut race to the playoffs, NASCAR's Chase for the Cup.  The added urgency to improve one's playoff position or to make it into the field will ratchet the pressure up to 11 on a 10 scale. 

Unlike the Daytona 500, the NASCAR Cup Series races under the lights for this dramatic and entertaining racing event.  This will be the third superspeedway race of the 2020 season, so we should now begin to see some trends forming on these larger ovals.  With the same aero-rules package being used for the second time this season at Daytona, we hope to see some the same racing that made the Daytona 500 a competitive and exciting affair.  If the drivers can duplicate the action we saw in June at Talladega, we should be in for a thrilling ride this Saturday night.  The 500-mile race at Talladega Superspeedway earlier this season featured a whopping 57 lead changes, which was an eight-season high at the track.  The Daytona 500 only offered 24 lead changes, so we will see if more lead swaps will happen this weekend after two superspeedway races are in the bank with this rules package.  The pack racing that super speedways create lead to lots of lead changes and parity in these events.  However, we also need to remember the 17 cars that DNF'd at Daytona is also a season high mark, and really illustrates the luck side of the equation in this style of racing too.  So we have to be mindful of the multi-car crashes that the pack racing produces and the luck factor that is associated with this style of racing.  We should be in for that same style of fireworks in the Coke Zero Sugar 400 this weekend.  With this event at Daytona being held at night it always introduces a new dynamic to this style of racing.  While there are many parallels we'll be able to draw from the Daytona 500, we fully expect the action in Saturday night's race to have its own unique characteristics.

Since this is the second race of the season at DIS, we can look back to February's Daytona 500 and even the race at Talladega this summer for some indications on which teams are running at top speed on the superspeedway ovals.  This information will for the foundation of our picks for this week's race.  We'll also pay close attention to the historical data at Daytona International Speedway.  While average finish position is not always a good statistic to rely on at these huge tracks, the loop stats will illustrate the drivers that lead laps, make quality passes and dominate at Daytona on a regular basis.  The data shown below covers the last 15 years or 31 races at Daytona International Speedway.

Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin won this year's Daytona 500.  The victory made him a three-time winner of the Great American Race and also made him a four-time winner on superspeedway ovals.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has always been a consistent performer at the Daytona track, but it appears now he's a major threat to win with three victories in just the last five seasons.  The late cautions, several restarts and mayhem that were the last laps of the Daytona 500 made for a perfect situation for Hamlin, and he wasted no time seizing that opportunity.  When the series traveled to Talladega in late June it was a total free-for-all, but Ryan Blaney managed to lead the most laps with 63.  Joey Logano would also lead 33 laps, but would come up short of victory lane.  It would be Blaney walking away with that victory.  This Penske Racing duo has the recent stranglehold on the Talladega oval, although they've both also had more limited success at Daytona.  They always show up with fast race cars at both superspeedways. 

While he didn't win either race, Kevin Harvick will be looking to make his mark this Saturday night.  He finished a respectable 10th-place at Talladega in the early summer, and he finished a superb fifth-place in the Daytona 500.  Harvick didn't lead a lot of laps but was a factor in both races, and a serious threat to win.  Aside from these storylines, Ryan Newman has been the most consistent superspeedway performers for the Ford camp the last three seasons.  The driver of the No. 6 Ford Mustang has two Top-5 and seven Top-10 finishes in his last 10 combined starts between Daytona and Talladega with a stellar 11.1 average finish.  As you'll recall, Daytona was the scene of Newman's horrendous crash and injuries at the end of this season's Daytona 500.  The veteran driver will return to scene of that unfortunate incident and look to battle some psychological demons as well as the competition on the track this weekend in pursuit of the victory that he just missed in the Great American Race.  We'll take a look at recent history, and the 2020 Daytona 500 and give you the drivers you need this weekend to win your fantasy racing league.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is coming off a victory during this past weekend's Dover doubleheader.  He now has six victories for the season.  Hamlin has won the last two Daytona 500s, and that makes him a dangerous man this Saturday night.  He's coming to the perfect oval and race to get keep his momentum rolling right into the Chase for the Cup.  Hamlin has been stellar and has had great speed on these large ovals all the way back to the start of the 2014 season.  In just his last six combined starts alone between Daytona and Talladega, the veteran driver boasts 132 laps led, two wins and four Top-5 finishes.  Considering the speed that the No. 11 Toyota has shown on the superspeedway tracks the last few seasons, Hamlin should be the top contender to win the Coke Zero Sugar 400.    

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing youngster is in need of a momentum boost going into the Chase, and this is the perfect track to set the No. 12 Ford team straight before the playoffs start.  Blaney has won or finished runner-up in each of the last three NASCAR Cup Series superspeedway events.  He's grabbed a pair of Talladega victories and nabbed a brilliant runner-up finish in the season-opening Daytona 500.  Blaney has really elevated his game on these large ovals.  He's never won at Daytona but his 145 laps led and runner-up finish this February show that career win number one at this facility is coming at any time.  Blaney will be in the mix for the win in this 400-mile battle under the lights.             

Chase Elliott – The young Hendrick Motorsports driver had a mixed weekend this past week at Dover.  The doubleheader yielded a Top-5 finish and a crash in the backend of the two races.  Elliott will look to clear that disappointment with a strong outing at Daytona.  He picked up his first-career superspeedway win last season at Talladega and he's been upping his game on these large ovals ever since.  The last year has seen the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet lead 93 combined laps between Daytona and Talladega, capture one pole and one victory.  The finishes are consistently coming yet, but Elliott is showing the blazing speed necessary to challenge for wins in the closing laps on these big ovals.  He's a bit of a crap shoot compared to Hamlin and Blaney, but make no mistake Elliott possesses homerun potential in this race.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing ace is trying to build some momentum as we head into the playoffs.  Logano rides into Daytona weekend fifth-place in the driver standings, and looking to pick up another win that would bolster his Chase for the Cup standing.  This will be the perfect oval for the driver of the No. 22 Ford to snatch that victory and consolidate his high ranking going into NASCAR's post-season.  Logano won the 2015 Daytona 500, and he has three Talladega trophies in his war chest.  Those four victories make him one of the current stars of the series in this style of racing.  Logano has had a bit of tough luck on the superspeedways the past four attempts, but the laps led have stayed consistent (95 laps) across the last four events.  This veteran driver has the skill and knowledge to win this very important race.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran is one of the most consistent superspeedway performers in the series the last three seasons.  Almirola won at Talladega in 2018 and he is a consistent finisher in this high stakes form of racing.  Almirola has three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts between Daytona and Talladega, and only three finishes outside the Top 20 during that same span at these tracks. SHR is consistently giving him strong cars on these ovals as Almirola's third-place finish at Talladega earlier this summer illustrates.  The driver of the No. 10 Ford is a good outside contender for the win and sure bet for a Top-10 finish Saturday night in this 400-mile war under the lights. 

Kurt Busch – The 2017 Daytona 500 champion will return to the scene of his big win three seasons ago.  Busch has always been a consistent finisher on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega, but his ability to win at them is only a more recent development.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has enviable career numbers racing on the superspeedways.  Busch cracks the Top 5 at Daytona at a stunning 34-percent rate and the Top 10 at an impressive 47-percent rate.  His Talladega performances are equally impressive.  The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet owns a 54-percent Top-10 rate at that oval as well.  The last time we saw Busch in action on a superspeedway he raced with the leaders all afternoon long and finished ninth-place at Talladega in June.  It's that kind of speed he'll bring to Daytona this Saturday night. 

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has become a fantasy racing staple each time we visit the big tracks of Daytona and Talladega.  Stenhouse has nabbed four Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts between these two ovals.  He's led a combined 161 laps during this span, so he's not just being an opportunistic finisher, he's racing up front in the majority of these races.  Stenhouse won the pole and led 24 laps in the season-opening Daytona 500.  He followed up that performance with 5 laps led and a runner-up finish at Talladega in June.  Stenhouse understands this style of racing well and his two-career victories and 12-combined Top-10 finishes at Daytona and Talladega illustrate this point.  He'll get the finish he deserves in Saturday night's Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Kevin Harvick – Normally Harvick is near the top of our racing articles, but he comes back to the pack a bit in superspeedway racing.  The veteran SHR driver has enviable career numbers racing at Daytona International Speedway.  Harvick has two-career victories and 15 Top-10 finishes at the historic speedway in Florida.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford started 10th on the grid in this season's Daytona 500 and peddled to an impressive fifth-place finish.  That performance snapped a bit of a dry spell for the veteran at the famous Florida oval.  With fifth- and 10th-place finishes this season on the superspeedway circuit, Harvick appears poised to crack the Top 10 in this important visit to Daytona International Speedway. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski used to be the gold standard when it comes to superspeedway racing, but his performances have cooled a bit the last couple seasons.  We've moved him to the sleepers list for this very reason, but we still need to keep him on our fantasy radar for the pure homerun potential.  While the Penske Racing star has had more success and collected more trophies at the Alabama oval, he does bring some value to Daytona.  Keselowski won this event four seasons ago in a dominant performance.  He led 115 laps and pounded the field into the pavement for his first-ever Daytona win.  The risk side of the equation is that he's crashed out of six of his last seven Daytona races.  Keselowski is simply too good in this style of racing for this to continue for much longer.       

Clint Bowyer – The No. 14 Stewart Haas Racing team has had a tough season, but Bowyer has shown some life the last couple weekend.  He has grabbed a pair of sixth-place finishes in the last three races and climbed to 11th-place in the driver standings.   Daytona should help keep the veteran driver on a roll.  Bowyer owns 13 Top-10 finishes in 29-career starts at Daytona for a very respectable 45-percent rate.  His start here in February's Daytona 500 netted a strong sixth-place finish.  Bowyer has been equally impressive at the Talladega oval with two-career victories there and 13 Top-10 finishes.  This veteran driver understands superspeedway racing and has an edge on most of the field.

Austin Dillon – It's been a pretty solid season for Dillon and the No. 3 team, and coming off a strong Dover Top-10 finish there's good reason to expect more results this weekend at Daytona.  Superspeedway racing has always been a strength for Dillon although more recent starts have been a bit lean.  The Richard Childress Racing driver has always fared better at the Daytona oval than at Talladega.  Seven of his 14-career starts at the Florida speedway have netted Top-10 finishes, and that includes the 2018 Daytona 500 victory.  Dillon has been good as gold on his better ovals this season, and Daytona is the perfect setup to keep that trend going forward.  For weekly lineup fantasy leagues, he makes a perfect play for salary cap or limited start games.  

Erik Jones – The young Joe Gibbs Racing driver seems to have figured out superspeedway racing over the past two seasons.  It culminated with is summer victory at Daytona in 2018.  He has four Top-10 finishes in his last eight superspeedway starts, and that's a respectable 50-percent rate.  That string includes his recent fifth-place finish at Talladega a few weeks ago.  Jones has grabbed a victory and two Top-5 finishes in his last four Daytona starts, and that grabs our attention immediately.  Given that this young driver won't be with this race team in 2021, he's looking for suitors right now.  What better track to show off his superspeedway skills and potentially help attract a new boss for next season?      

Chris Buescher – The Roush Fenway Racing veteran has been one of the more successful superspeedway drivers of 2020.  Although there's only been two races on these style tracks to this point, Buescher has hauled in the results.  He scored a stunning third-place finish in the season-opening Daytona 500.  That was his third Top 5 at the Daytona oval and career-best finish at the track.  To prove that was no fluke, Buescher went to Talladega in June and grabbed a strong sixth-place finish in the GEICO 500.  The No. 17 team is the same car that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. used to dominate with on superspeedways, and Buescher's move into the team this season appears to have been seamless in this style of racing.      

John Hunter Nemechek – The rookie driver won't likely be on many fantasy player's radar screens this weekend, but in just a short time Nemechek has impressed us on the big ovals of Daytona and Talladega.  The Front Row Motorsports youngster made his Daytona debut earlier this season and navigated a wild race and many wrecks to finish 11th in the Daytona 500.  To prove that was no fluke he made his first-career Talladega start in April and navigated a calmer event to finish a strong eighth-place in the GEICO 500.  We realize the sample size is a bit small, but you can't argue with the results.  Those types of finishes don't happen by accident.  It takes a rare combination of good luck and driving skill to collect those finishes at these two challenging ovals.  Nemechek is a good "deep off the bench" option in the Coke Zero Sugar 400.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch has been consistently fast at both Daytona and Talladega for much of his career.  Consistently finishing these races has always been an issue.  There's good reason for continued pessimism.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been mired in one of his worst seasons in recent memory.  Busch is still winless for the 2020 campaign and his 14.4 average finish through 25 races is the highest mark since his 2014 season.  Busch's last three seasons of superspeedway racing have yielded only two Top 10' in 10 starts vs. two DNFs.  His 34th- and 32nd-place finishes this season at Daytona and Talladega are good reason to be concerned about his chances this Saturday night.                                                                                                 

Matt Kenseth – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran's tough season continued at the Monster Mile this past week with 23rd- and 15th-place finishes.  Kenseth is mired in a nine-race Top-10 drought that's showing no signs of ending soon.  Daytona will be a major challenge for the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet.  While Kenseth is a two-time Daytona winner, he didn't crack the Top 10 in his last seven starts at the facility between 2014 and 2017.  Kenseth's only superspeedway start of this season was a forgettable 40th-place finish at Talladega in June.  We hate to keep beating the Kenseth drum every week, but he needs to be benched in all leagues at this point. 

Martin Truex Jr. – The Furniture Row Racing veteran has not had a problem with speed of late, nor has finishes been a problem.  Truex rides an amazing seven-race Top-3 streak into Saturday's action.  However, superspeedway racing has been fraught with danger for this driver and team over the years, so the results have not consistently followed.  Daytona will provide an opportunity for the No. 19 Toyota team to get the finish they deserve in this style of racing.  Truex did finish runner-up in this event two seasons ago, but that's been the outlier.  This veteran has only four Top-10 finishes in 30 starts at this facility.  That works out to a lowly 13-percent Top-10 rate.  Truex has just one Top 10 in his last 10 superspeedway starts combined.  It's best to stash him on the bench this week, and save him for an intermediate oval in the upcoming schedule.    

Matt DiBenedetto – The Wood Brothers Racing veteran has had a career season in 2020, but things have cooled just a bit of late.  He's not visited the Top 10 in the last three races, and has stalled out at 13th-place in the driver point standings.  DiBenedetto will look to turn that around in Saturday night's Coke Zero 400.  He has been rather subpar so far this season on the superspeedway tracks.  DiBenedetto fetched a 19th-place finish in the Daytona 500 and 26th-place finish in the Talladega race.  The performance sort of dovetails with his last three seasons on these big ovals.  Only two of his last 10-combined starts between Daytona and Talladega have netted Top 10s vs. four DNFs.  The average finish is coming in at a lackluster 22.5.  DiBenedetto is a good bench candidate this weekend.