Buschy McBusch Race 400 Preview: Return to Intermediate Ovals

In the wake of the wild and unpredictable race at Talladega, we're in for a change of pace this weekend.  For the fourth time in 2021, the NASCAR Cup Series goes intermediate oval racing.  We visit Kansas Speedway for the spring event, which debuted in April 2012.  The Buschy McBusch Race 400 will take our competitors back to an intermediate oval after a six-week hiatus from these style tracks.  The 1.5-mile oval of Kansas Speedway may not give us a sequel of what played out at Atlanta a few weeks ago, but the teams that performed well at the Georgia oval in the Folds of Honor QuikTrip 500 should be in for another strong race weekend.  The teams that dominated at Atlanta Motor Speedway are sure to be licking their chops for this visit to America's heartland. 

While Kansas only offers 15-degree corner banking compared to 24-degree corner banking at Atlanta, the similarities are enough to warrant reconsideration of almost the same driver group that we had at the Georgia speedway.  Both tracks are the "D" shaped configuration so the handling characteristics will be much the same.  However, the racing surfaces of the two tracks are completely different.  Atlanta is very abrasive and tire wear is the biggest issue, but Kansas is much less a tire wear track.  That one wrinkle could play a big role in altering the driver group just a bit.  One thing is for certain, the remarkable parity we've seen so far on these style ovals should continue at Kansas Speedway.  We've had three different race winners on the 1.5-mile tracks so far, and we've had eight different drivers lead 25 combined laps or more in these events with the latest aero rules package.  Kansas could offer a few more surprises. 

Since we're making our first stop of the season at Kansas Speedway, we need to take a brief look back at history at this intermediate oval.  These numbers will be even more important than usual, since it's been since last October since we last competed at this oval.  As you'll see in the table below, some of the hottest drivers in the series right now are making a very timely start at Kansas this weekend.  Here are the loop stats for the last 26 races at Kansas Speedway.

Our most recent Kansas winner, Joey Logano, will be challenged to defend his turf this Sunday afternoon at the Kansas Speedway oval.  The Penske Racing star dominated the Hollywood Casino 400 last October to claim his third-career victory at the oval.  Logano used good pit strategy and a strong car late to supplant Kevin Harvick at the point and lead the final 45 laps to the finish.  Both Logano and Harvick were non-factors in the recent Atlanta race, so it will be interesting to see if both drivers can rebound to contention this Sunday afternoon at Kansas Speedway.

The Joe Gibbs Racing and Hendrick Motorsports camps will pose the biggest threat to Logano's crown this weekend.  William Byron, Kyle Larson and Ryan Blaney have won the three intermediate oval events thus far of 2021.  None of those three have ever won at the Kansas oval, so we could be looking at the prospect of a first-time Kansas winner in the Buschy McBusch Race 400.  Aside from these two super-teams, Martin Truex Jr. should stay on our fantasy racing radar screens at Kansas.  He seems to be the best-positioned Toyota driver to challenge for the win at Kansas Speedway.  From the Chevrolet side it's any of the Hendrick Motorsports teams in the running with a slight advantage to both Alex Bowman and Chase Elliott as the highest Kansas finishers from that race last October.  We'll highlight the fantasy racing drivers you need this Sunday afternoon to dominate this 400-mile battle at Kansas Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Martin Truex Jr. – The two-time Kansas winner sets his sights on grabbing his third win at this intermediate oval this Sunday afternoon.  Truex swept both victories at Kansas Speedway in 2017, so he's no stranger to victory lane at this facility.  Since the sweep of Kansas that year, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has registered a runner-up finish and three Top-5 finishes at Kansas Speedway.  The No. 19 Toyota team has been very consistent so far in 2021 on these intermediate ovals with finishes of third-, sixth- and ninth-place so far.  Truex has been building up to a big-time performance at one of these style tracks, and this could be the weekend where he visits victory lane.  He led 44 laps and finished third in this event last season, so there's plenty of upside with a Truex fantasy racing selection. 

Kyle Larson – Larson returns to the Kansas oval this weekend for the first time since 2019.  He missed both Kansas starts last season due to his lengthy suspension from NASCAR.  However, we have not forgotten Larson's last outing at this 1.5-mile track.  He led 60 laps and was a strong performer before fading to finish 14th in the Hollywood Casino 400.  This is where his new race team at Hendrick Motorsports enters the picture.  The No. 5 Chevrolet team has given Larson great cars on these cookie cutter ovals this season.  He's led a combined 377 laps this season on similar sized tracks and grabbed a Las Vegas victory in March.  Larson proved that performance was no fluke with his runner-up finish at Atlanta.  Prospects look good for a first-career Kansas win this weekend.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has won two of the last three Kansas events.  For that reason alone, we have to give the driver of the No. 11 Toyota major respect for what he's accomplished at Kansas Speedway over the years.  He has three victories, eight Top-5 and nine Top-10 finishes in 25 starts.  We'd like to see higher Top-5 and Top-10 rates, but frankly Hamlin is a much improved driver across the board the last two seasons at this particular oval.  The veteran driver's two Top-5 finishes on 1.5-mile ovals this season are a great endorsement of his recent stats at this track.  He'll race among the leaders and highly contest the win at Kansas Sunday afternoon.    

William Byron – The up-and-coming Hendrick Motorsports youngster has looked like a world beater on the intermediate ovals this season.  Byron kicked off the 2021 campaign with a big win at the 1.5-mile track in Homestead and has followed it with a pair of Top 10's at Las Vegas and Atlanta.  He's led a combined 129 laps this season in the three intermediate oval events to-date.  Byron has yet to leave a huge impression at Kansas Speedway, but he's been slowly building up to something big.  He rides a three-race Kansas Top-10 streak into Sunday's action.  Byron has led 31 laps across that string, so he's been knocking on the door of something big at the Kansas track.  Sunday's Buschy McBusch Race 400 could be the start where Byron breaks through for the win.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – Last weekend's Talladega victor is a two-time Kansas winner and he won this event in 2019.  His 253 laps led and 12-career Top-10 finishes show his expertise at this facility.  Recent outings have been just as sharp with second- and fourth-place finishes at Kansas Speedway last season.  Keselowski has been trying to find his stride on these cookie cutter ovals this season, but he's led 74 laps and grabbed a runner-up finish at Las Vegas earlier this season.  The combination of current momentum and his 55-percent Top-10 rate at this oval are not to be underestimated.  The No. 2 Penske Racing Ford team are fresh off a big win at Talladega this past Sunday, and that bodes well for the quick turnaround and trip to Kansas Speedway this Sunday afternoon.

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been Steady Eddie on the cookie cutter tracks this season.  Busch is three-for-three in starts and Top 10's on the 1.5-mile ovals in 2021.  His last time out was a strong fifth-place finish at Atlanta in March.  Busch has three Top-5 finishes in his last five Kansas starts, and that includes a fifth-place finish in last October's Hollywood Casino 400.  The driver of the No. 18 Toyota has pushed his Top 10 totals at Kansas to 12 and that has helped to overcome a poor start at this oval earlier in his career.  Busch has elevated his Top-10 rate to 46-percent and average finish to 15.7.  He's completely flipped Kansas Speedway from being one of his worst intermediate ovals to being one of his better intermediate ovals in the last six seasons. 

Kevin Harvick – The No. 4 Ford team is still searching for the right stuff to lead laps and challenge for victories.  However, while that search continues, Harvick still makes steady starts and racks up Top 10's most weeks.  The Stewart Haas Racing star has three victories and four runner-up finishes dating back to 2013 at Kansas Speedway.  He won from the pole in a dominant performance in this event three years ago.  With well over 900-career laps led at Kansas, this is one of Harvick's more successful intermediate tracks.  His 85 laps led and runner-up finish in last October's Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas is our last look of this driver and team at this oval.  The veteran driver of the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing Ford is a Top-10 lock and has the outside line on possibly finding his groove again in Sunday's Buschy McBusch Race 400. 

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been a pretty strong force on the intermediate ovals thus far this season.  His Atlanta victory and Las Vegas Top 5 are still fresh in our memory even though they both happened in March.  Kansas Speedway has been a bit of an uneven affair over Blaney's seven-season career.  Still, his three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes are reasonable marks.  That works out to a steady 50-percent Top-10 rate for the driver of the No. 12 Ford.  Blaney's last start at the Kansas oval led to a strong seventh-place finish in last October's Hollywood Casino 400.  That mark should be a reasonable expectation for this driver and team again this Sunday afternoon. 

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Kansas & solid upside

Alex Bowman – The cookie cutter tracks have always been Bowman's best on the circuit.  The 2021 season has started that way as well for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet.  Bowman has a ninth-place Homestead finish and strong third-place Atlanta finish.  After the surprise win at Richmond two weeks ago, this driver and team will be looking forward to another 1.5-mile track this weekend.  Bowman's recent exploits at Kansas Speedway have netted four Top-10 finishes in his last five starts.  That includes his eighth- and third-place finishes at Kansas last season alone.  The uptick in performance has raised his career Top-10 rate at this oval to 46-percent.  Bowman looks poised to grab another Top 10 in the Buschy McBusch Race 400. 

Erik Jones – Jones has absolutely loved this oval throughout his brief NASCAR Cup Series career.  The driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet has five Top-10 finishes in his last six starts at this track.  Those performances have elevated his Top-10 rate to 56-percent and lowered his average finish to 15.9.  Granted, these efforts came with Joe Gibbs Racing, so we have to put it into context.  This Sunday will be Jones' first Kansas start with his Richard Petty Motorsports team.  For comparison our best indicator is likely Jones' start at Las Vegas earlier this season which is a very similar oval.  The young driver peddled from 29th on the starting grid that day in March to finish an impressive 10th-place.  We believe the driver of the No. 43 Chevrolet has a lot of fantasy racing potential in this 400-mile battle.    

Austin Dillon – Dillon hasn't been a world-beater, but he's been steady and dependable this season on the cookie cutter tracks.  The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet grabbed a pair of 12th-place finishes at Homestead and Las Vegas, but then he upped his game with a strong sixth-place finish at Atlanta in his last intermediate oval race.  That lowered his average finish this season to 10.0 on these size ovals.  Kansas Speedway has offered just three Top 10's in 15-career starts (20-percent) but his most recent outing here is of note.  Dillon started 17th and finished 11th-place in last October's Hollywood Casino 400.  He looks like a driver that could challenge the Top 10 Sunday afternoon and almost certainly slot in the Top 15.        

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The JTG Daugherty Racing veteran doesn't have a Top 10 this season on the cookie cutter tracks, but he's been pecking around the Top 10 in each of the three races.  Finishes of 13th-, 11th- and 12th-place have been Stenhouse's body of work on the intermediate ovals in 2021.  Those performances alone are reason enough to ink the No. 47 team into your lineups this weekend.  Kansas Speedway has held some recent success for the veteran driver.  Stenhouse has three Top-15 and six Top-20 finishes in his last eight Kansas starts.  His last start at the Kansa oval netted a respectable 16th-place finish in last October's Hollywood Casino 400.  We believe Stenhouse has better potential than that mark in Sunday's Buschy McBusch Race 400. 

Christopher Bell – Bell has been a bit perplexing on the intermediate ovals this season with just one Top-10 finish, but we believe it was an important one for where it occurred.  The Joe Gibbs Racing driver piloted the No. 20 Toyota to a strong seventh-place finish at Las Vegas in March.  The setup this weekend is pretty similar as far as banking and configuration goes for Kansas Speedway.  Bell has two-career starts at this track and they both came last season.  The last of those two starts was an impressive 10th-place finish in last October's Hollywood Casino 400.  That was our last look at this young driver at the Kansas intermediate oval.  It was a good impression to leave heading into Sunday's 400-mile contest at the 1.5-mile Kansas track.    

Matt DiBenedetto – Once again, DiBenedetto flirted with his first-career victory this past Sunday at Talladega.  And once again, it would be a driver the likes of Brad Keselowski that would crush his hopes in the closing laps.  The Wood Brothers Racing veteran will have to shake off the disappointment again and set his sights high for Kansas Speedway this Sunday.  Given that DiBenedetto collected a Kansas career-best 12th-place finish last October in the Hollywood Casino 400, it seems like a good setup to rebound.  The notes that the No. 21 Ford team have from that outing will be relevant and fresh.  DiBenedetto has slowly been improving in each of his intermediate oval outings so far this season with 28th-, 16th- and 11th-place finishes in his three outings to-date.   

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Chase Elliott – Elliott will look to hit the reset button this week after his Talladega bad luck and poor finish.  Kansas Speedway would appear to be a good place to stage a rally if you're the No. 9 Chevrolet team.  Elliott has 40-percent Top-5 and 60-percent Top-10 rates at this 1.5-mile oval.  However, the Hendrick Motorsports star has been somewhat inconsistent of late with just two Top 10's in his last five races.  Frankly, this driver and team haven't really shown the speed to lead laps and challenge for wins yet this season.  The intermediate ovals have been particularly tough with finishes of 14th-, 13th- and 38th-place on the 1.5-mile tracks.  We recommend saving fantasy starts for Elliott until he heats up later in the season. 

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has had a really tough start to the 2021 season.  With just one Top 10 through the first 10 events, Almirola is desperately searching for any traction he can get.  Things have been looking up of late with a Top 10 at Richmond two weeks ago and a Top 15 last weekend at Talladega.  However, we still recommend a reserved and measured approach to the No. 10 Ford team this weekend.  Kansas Speedway hasn't exactly been his best track in recent seasons.  Almirola has just one Top-10 finish in his last four Kansas starts and that has lowered his career Top-10 rate here to a subpar 39-percent.  Cookie cutter ovals this season have been a disaster so far with 30th-, 38th- and 20th-place finishes.  We still recommend a "wait and see" approach to Almirola this week.

Joey Logano – Despite being a three-time Kansas Speedway winner, we are recommending the bench for Logano and the No. 22 Ford team this week.  He's the ultimate boom-or-bust, all-or-nothing fantasy racing pick this Sunday afternoon.  Logano won last October's Hollywood Casino 400 at Kansas, but that performance snapped a three-race Top-10 drought at the track for the No. 22 team.  Despite the three wins, Logano still only boasts a 39-percent Top-10 rate at this track and somewhat inflated 17.5 average finish.  This veteran Penske Racing driver is a performer with the potential to finish well outside the Top 15, and that's more likely than Logano visiting victory lane or cracking the Top 5 Sunday afternoon.

Bubba Wallace – While Wallace grabbed his first-career stage win and led a good number of laps at Talladega this past week, it could be a weekend to fade the No. 23 Toyota team.  Intermediate ovals haven't been Wallace's best tracks this season.  Finishes of 22nd-, 28th- (in particular at Las Vegas) and 16th-place have been his body of work so far.  Kansas Speedway has not yielded a Top-15 finish to Wallace in six prior starts and an average finish of 28.0 to this point in his career.  It would appear that the 23XI Racing driver has his work cut out for him this Sunday afternoon.  It could very likely be a struggle to get inside the Top 20 for the young driver.