Brickyard 400 Preview: Brickyard Fireworks

In the wake of the historic Pocono doubleheader weekend, we come to the yard of bricks this week.  This Sunday the NASCAR Cup Series comes back to the historic Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard.  The Brickyard will play host to this prestigious stock car racing event on motor racing's most identifiable and iconic track.  This will be the first season NASCAR has competed on the famed race track in Indianapolis on July 4 weekend.  The last couple seasons NASCAR's top division has raced at Indy to end the regular season schedule as the cutoff race going into the Chase for the Cup.  However, as a part of the 2020 scheduling shakeup, Indianapolis was moved to July 4 weekend.  Now we race one of NASCAR's most prestigious events on our nation's birthday weekend.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is a rectangular oval with very flat banking all the way around.  The straights are completely flat, and the four corners have banking that varies from 9 to 12 degrees.  The track is very temperature sensitive, so constant adjustments to the race car are a must in order to keep up with the changing handling conditions throughout the event.  Over the last few seasons Goodyear has been able to develop a great tire for stock cars at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so we expect solid racing and for tire wear not to be an issue this Sunday afternoon.  The long green flag runs that are commonplace at Indy could bring the fuel-mileage factor into the strategy for this 400-mile event, so we'll need to keep that detail in the back of our minds when making our driver list this week.  The rectangular oval has hosted 26 NASCAR Cup Series events to this point, so we have some very extensive data on how the drivers perform at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.

Indianapolis Motor Speedway is perhaps the most unique track that the series visits each year.  No other track on the circuit has enough comparable characteristics to draw even a modest comparison.  The racing we just experienced at Pocono Raceway last weekend is probably the most similar characteristics to consider.  Those drivers that dominated in the Pocono doubleheader are likely to keep the momentum rolling this weekend at Indianapolis.  Let's take a quick look at the loop stats for the last 15 Cup Series races at Indy.  Since the NASCAR's top division only races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway once a season, this span will cover the last 15 years and should give us a good statistical tool to evaluate the drivers for this weekend's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard. 

Chevrolet drivers and teams used to dominate the rectangular oval in Indiana.  For years Chevy drivers piled up the trophies in this prestigious event.  That all changed in 2015 and 2016 when Kyle Busch won back-to-back installments of the Brickyard 400.  In this event two years ago Ford star, Brad Keselowski, swept into Indianapolis victory lane for the first time in his career.  In so doing, he gave Ford its first Brickyard win in a very long time.  Kevin Harvick kissed the bricks for the second time in his career and marched into victory lane at Indianapolis in this event last season, giving Ford a two-race win streak at Indy.  This is where we stand entering this weekend.  Toyota and Chevrolet have been locked out of victory lane here the last two seasons, and will be looking to snap Ford's two-race win streak at the oval.

Even though Chevy and Toyota drivers have a golden opportunity for the upset, we can't overlook Ford's opportunity to upstage everyone again this weekend.  Drivers like Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski are more than capable of taking the win in this Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard.  At the moment, Toyota teams seem particularly dangerous.  With Denny Hamlin and Erik Jones racing so well, they are definitely the momentum plays this weekend.  As for the bowtie camp, Chase Elliott and William Byron will once again be the top drivers from that manufacturer who can potentially spoil the Ford party.  We'll take a look at the top contenders and the streaking drivers in the NASCAR Cup Series, along with historical data in order to give you the drivers you need this weekend to dominate the Brickyard and your fantasy racing league.   

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has never won at Indianapolis, but he comes to the historic track in the best position of his career to win and kiss the yard of bricks.  Coming off two victories and one runner-up finish in the last four races, the Joe Gibbs Racing star is red hot coming to Indianapolis this weekend.  He's fresh off a pair of dominant performances at the Pocono tri-oval and will look to carry that momentum into the Brickyard 400.  The last several seasons the No. 11 JGR team have been a study of consistency at this race track.  Hamlin has four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last six starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  His best performance came two seasons ago when he led 37 laps and finished third in the 2018 installment of this race.  We imagine Hamlin will push to better that mark this Sunday and possibly hoist his first Indy trophy at the end of the day.

Kevin Harvick – Another great veteran driver to rely on this weekend would be Stewart Haas Racing star Harvick.  The No. 4 Ford team is a weekly Top-5 contender as he showed at Pocono this past weekend.  Victories have not been elusive this season, and Harvick already has three through the first 15 events.  Indianapolis has been a very good track for Harvick, with two wins, seven Top 5's and 13 Top 10's in 19-career starts.  Harvick has led over 300-career laps at Indianapolis Motor Speedway so he knows all too well what it takes to get to the front and stay there at this rectangular oval.  The driver of the No. 4 Ford led a dominating 118 laps from the pole in this event last season and cruised to his second-career victory at IMS. We believe Harvick has a very good chance to defend that race crown this weekend.

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has been heating up for the past several weeks.  Almirola boasts a strong four-race Top-5 streak as we enter the Indianapolis racing weekend.  Over that streak he's led a combined 65 laps and been in the mix for the win in each of those races.  Almirola has never won at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, but he's never been hotter when coming to the Brickyard.  We believe the combination of what we've seen the last few weeks, coupled with his strong performances at Pocono add up to a challenge for the win at Indy.  For a driver that boasts only two Top-15 finishes in eight-career starts at this oval, Almirola won't get top contender status by many fantasy racing players this weekend, but he should as a matter of momentum.  He should have lower ownership than many of the drivers in the top tier of many league formats.      

Chase Elliott – With a victory, runner-up finish and five Top-10 finishes in the last eight events, Elliott comes to Indianapolis fourth overall in the championship standings and performing as one of the stronger drivers in Chevrolet camp right now.  He's struggled with some inconsistencies of late, but rebounded nicely with a strong fourth-place finish in the second of the two Pocono races.  The Hendrick Motorsports driver will be making his sixth-career start at the Brickyard this Sunday afternoon.  Those prior five starts have been nothing noteworthy, with just one Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes to his credit.  Elliott will look to turn in his career-best Brickyard performance this Sunday.  Given how well he's performed the last several weeks, including great finishes at Charlotte, Homestead and Pocono, we expect big things for the No. 9 Chevrolet team in the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is a two-time winner at the rectangular oval coming into this weekend's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard.  Busch has two victories and two runner-up finishes at Indianapolis Motor Speedway since the 2012 season.  The Brickyard has held a lot of success for him over the years.  While the driver of the No. 18 Toyota hasn't been in race winning form yet this season, he's generally been a Top-10 driver on his better tracks.  IMS has yielded 11 Top-10 finishes to Busch in 15 starts.  That's a sizzling 73-percent Top-10 rate.  By all measures, Busch has had a down season to this point in 2020, but he's still good enough to peddle to a Top-10 finish in Sunday's 400-mile battle at Indy. 

Erik Jones – The driver of the No. 20 Toyota is heating up with the weather going into July.  After an inconsistent early-season, Jones has been turning things around of late.  He's nabbed a pair of Top-5 finishes in his last three starts.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster will be making his fourth-career start at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  For what he lacks in experience he made up for in performance in this event two years ago.  Jones qualified 13th on the starting grid and piloted his Toyota Camry to an impressive runner-up finish in 2018's Brickyard 400.  Coming off the strong third-place finish this past Sunday at the similar oval in Pocono, Jones carries a lot of momentum into this event.  This young driver has the speed, and is gaining the experience to upset the bigger names at Indianapolis.

Ryan Blaney – The driver of the No. 12 Ford snapped a four-race Top-5 streak with his pair of subpar finishes at Pocono last weekend.  We look for Blaney to rebound this weekend at the Brickyard.  He will be making his sixth-career start at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday afternoon.  Since moving to the Penske No. 12 team, the young driver has 11th- and seventh-place finishes in his last two Indy starts.  Those efforts have lowered his career average finish at the Brickyard to 17.8 after some poorer outings earlier in his career at the historic Indiana track.  Blaney's seventh-place finish of one season ago featured 19 laps led and a lot of racing at the front of the field.  That was his career-best Brickyard performance to this point.  He could better that mark Sunday afternoon.    

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski's ninth- and 11th-place finishes last weekend at Pocono were a confidence booster heading into Indy.  Now, the Penske Racing star will attempt to defend his turf as the Indianapolis winner of 2018 and runner-up finisher of 2017.  The driver of the No. 2 Ford has 10-career starts at Indianapolis.  Those have yielded one win, two Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes along with 108 laps led.  After some mediocre racing at IMS earlier in his career, something has really flipped the switch on for Keselowski and his team the last few seasons at racing's most hallowed grounds.  At current performance levels he doesn't appear to have the inside track on winning Sunday afternoon, but you can bet Keselowski will be nipping at the heels of the leaders in the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Indianapolis & solid upside

Clint Bowyer –  Just when we thought Bowyer was down and out, he's found a way to rebound the last two races.  With seventh- and eighth-place finishes at Pocono this past weekend, Bowyer is once again pointed in the right direction after a brief slump.  The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has 14-career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and he has only five Top-10 finishes for a 36-percent average.  However, three of those Top 10's has come in the last five starts.  Bowyer is looking to get his team into shape for the second half of the regular season schedule.  Right now he sits an unsettled 13th in the driver standings.  That's resulting in some real urgency in his racing.  Bowyer has grabbed a pair of fifth-place finishes in his last two Indy starts, and we're banking on that for Sunday's race.

William Byron –  The young Hendrick Motorsports driver is coming off a good weekend of racing at the Tricky Triangle.  Byron grabbed 14th- and seventh-place finishes in the doubleheader at Pocono and showed good progress in the second of those two starts.  He'll carry that momentum to the yard of bricks this week.  This will be his third-career start at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  Byron should start to really capitalize on his experience at this historic oval.  Last season he piloted the No. 24 Chevrolet from deep in the starting grid and finished a surprising fourth-place in last year's Brickyard 400.  That impressive drive up through the field is not lost in our memory.  Byron and crew chief Chad Knaus should make good use of that experience in Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400.           

Matt Kenseth – We've been waiting patiently for this wily veteran to turn the corner since his return to full-time racing.  Pocono Raceway last weekend may have proven to be that pivotal moment for the driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet.  Kenseth raced to respectable 11th- and 12th-place finishes in the Pocono doubleheader and showed the best progress of his last two months of racing.  Indianapolis is the perfect follow up track for Kenseth to keep progressing.  He owns 12 Top-10 finishes in 19 starts at the historic track, and that checks in at a strong 63-percent rate.  That success has been recent as well.  Kenseth reeled off five Top 10's in his last six Indianapolis before his 2018 retirement.  It's all a setup for an improving veteran driver this weekend.    

Matt DiBenedetto – We've moved DiBenedetto back into the sleepers list this week after his good weekend at Pocono Raceway.  He rewarded fantasy racing players with respectable 13th- and sixth-place finishes at the Tricky Triangle.  He now has two Top 10's in his last five events coming into the Brickyard this week.  We predict more of the same for the driver of the No. 21 Ford.  DiBenedetto's strong efforts at recent ovals like Charlotte, Homestead and Pocono set up well for this weekend.  Although he has just five Indianapolis starts to his credit, DiBenedetto does have one Top 10 in those prior efforts.  That experience coupled with his recent speed is a great combination for Sunday's 400-mile battle.  We wouldn't be surprised to see this journeyman driver hang another Top 10 on the board. 

Ryan Newman – In keeping with the consistency theme, we have to keep the No. 6 Ford team circled this week on the sleepers list.  Newman has been racing fairly well in May and June, and he has four Top-15 finishes in the last seven races.  There's no reason to expect this driver and team to cool off this Sunday afternoon at the Brickyard.  His effort in this event one year ago yielded a strong eighth-place finish.  Newman now rides a three-race Indianapolis Top-10 streak into this weekend's action.  Those efforts go nicely with his Brickyard win in 2013.  Since that victory, Newman has the one win, two Top-5, four Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes.  That works out to a strong 10.7 average finish at Indy over the last seven seasons.  Newman shouldn't disappoint in Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at the Brickyard.

Christopher Bell – The rookie is coming off a mixed bag at Pocono this past weekend.  Bell registered an amazing fourth-place finish in the first half of the doubleheader, but then run into trouble in the second part of the double dip and crashed out of that race.  After a slow start to the 2020 season, this young driver has been making some steady progress of late.  Two of Bell's last four races have captured Top-10 finishes.  The consistency is not there just yet, but the highs are extremely high right now.  Bell brings that fantasy racing homerun potential into his first-career Brickyard start this weekend.  The driver that came from 36th on the starting grid to finish fourth at Pocono this past Saturday could very well show up at Indianapolis this Sunday afternoon.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Joey Logano – Logano has pretty good Indianapolis numbers in his racing resume.  He has seven total Top-10 finishes in 11 starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.  That 64-percent rate is enviable among any driver in NASCAR's top division.  However, the Penske Racing star is slumping coming into Brickyard weekend.  Logano is currently mired in a four-race Top-10 drought, and he's coming off forgettable 36th- and 24th-place finishes at Pocono Raceway this past week.  The veteran driver has been razor sharp most of the season, but the early summer has gone stone cold for the No. 22 Ford team.  Logano has the ability to put a good number up on the board this weekend, but the indicators don't look very promising.  It's a calculated risk to deploy him at Indy. 

Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has been a bit inconsistent his last few races, so he slides into the slow down list week.  He won at Martinsville a few weeks ago, but ever since it's been a mixed bag of results.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star only has three Top 10's in 15-career starts at the historic speedway, and he's crashed out of two of the last three Brickyard events.  Truex was not many laps from tasting the possible thrill of victory at Indianapolis Motor Speedway in 2017.  However, the veteran driver got together with Kyle Busch's No. 18 Toyota and both crashed out well short of the full distance.  Unfortunately, Truex has had similar bad luck at the rectangular oval the last two seasons as well, and it led to another DNF in 2018 and a 27th-place finish in 2019.  Given his current track record, the driver of the No. 19 Toyota should show up with decent speed, but he's been having incredible problems finishing these Indianapolis races. 

Jimmie Johnson – Johnson's subpar performances of this past weekend at Pocono give us some major pause coming to Indianapolis, but the No. 48 team's career-long excellence here is almost too good to ignore.  The seven-time champion has won four-career victories at this oval, with the last coming in 2012.  However, since that win he's been on a steady decline at the Brickyard.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has only posted two Top 10's in the seven starts at Indy since that last victory.  Last season's effort resulted in a very poor 35th-place finish in the Big Machine Vodka 400.  There are many question marks surrounding Johnson and his team at this moment, and frankly the recent performances at Indianapolis don't inspire much confidence at all. 

Alex Bowman – Bowman is coming off a mixed bag weekend at the Tricky Triangle.  He posted a forgettable 27th-place finish on Saturday, but returned Sunday and peddled to a respectable ninth-place finish in the second half of the doubleheader.  This driver and team's week-to-week inconsistency shows that the lack of practice and qualifying is hurting Bowman's performances.  With a 33-percent Top-10 rate for the 2020 season, this Hendrick Motorsports driver is hard to predict each week.  When we look at Bowman's Indianapolis resume, things don't get any brighter.  His four-career starts at the track have yet to net a single Top-20 finish.  Two of those four starts have come with his No. 88 team, so the struggles span three race teams.  Bowman is simply too inconsistent right now to depend on at one of his lesser tracks.