This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
The last few seasons Goodyear has been able to develop a great tire for stock cars at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so we expect solid racing and for tire wear not to be an issue this Sunday afternoon. The long green flag runs that are commonplace at Indy could bring the fuel-mileage factor into the strategy for this 400-mile event, so we'll need to keep that detail in the back of our minds when making our driver list this week. The rectangular oval has hosted 23 Monster Energy Cup Series events to this point, so we have some very extensive data on how the drivers perform at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway is perhaps the most unique track that the series visits each year. No other track on the circuit has enough comparable characteristics to draw
The last few seasons Goodyear has been able to develop a great tire for stock cars at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, so we expect solid racing and for tire wear not to be an issue this Sunday afternoon. The long green flag runs that are commonplace at Indy could bring the fuel-mileage factor into the strategy for this 400-mile event, so we'll need to keep that detail in the back of our minds when making our driver list this week. The rectangular oval has hosted 23 Monster Energy Cup Series events to this point, so we have some very extensive data on how the drivers perform at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway is perhaps the most unique track that the series visits each year. No other track on the circuit has enough comparable characteristics to draw even a modest comparison. The racing we just experienced at the flat one-mile oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway is probably the most recent and closest set of data to consider. Those drivers that dominated at Loudon are likely to keep the momentum rolling this weekend at Indianapolis. Let's take a quick look at the loop stats for the last 12 NASCAR races at Indy. Since the Monster Energy Cup Series only races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway once a season, this span will cover the last 12 years and should give us a good statistical tool to evaluate the drivers for this weekend's Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400. Indy's results are really our best information to evaluate driver performance, so this chart will have some added emphasis in our prognostications this week. You'll notice that Jimmie Johnson leads the list across various categories, and that dominance has led to victories in the past. However, younger drivers are closing the gap quickly and have made Johnson less of a threat to roll into victory lane. The following table has the loop stats from the last 12 years or 12 races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
| DRIVER | AVG FINISH | QUALITY PASSES | FASTEST LAPS | LAPS LED | LAPS IN TOP 15 | RATING |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmie Johnson | 13.0 | 314 | 182 | 302 | 1,405 | 105.7 |
| Kyle Busch | 9.0 | 356 | 148 | 210 | 1,509 | 105.5 |
| Kyle Larson | 7.0 | 106 | 5 | 5 | 478 | 104.8 |
| Matt Kenseth | 11.3 | 355 | 29 | 29 | 1,516 | 98.3 |
| Kevin Harvick | 11.2 | 327 | 67 | 130 | 1,361 | 97.1 |
| Kasey Kahne | 15.5 | 331 | 104 | 158 | 1,316 | 95.0 |
| Denny Hamlin | 13.4 | 293 | 58 | 75 | 1,138 | 92.4 |
| Joey Logano | 12.6 | 191 | 22 | 55 | 794 | 90.1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 13.9 | 178 | 44 | 76 | 655 | 88.3 |
| Clint Bowyer | 13.5 | 223 | 12 | 6 | 938 | 82.4 |
| Dale Earnhardt Jr. | 19.5 | 262 | 46 | 48 | 861 | 82.1 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 18.3 | 240 | 20 | 3 | 901 | 79.2 |
| Ryan Newman | 17.2 | 188 | 28 | 45 | 840 | 78.3 |
| Jamie McMurray | 16.7 | 229 | 15 | 26 | 839 | 78.1 |
| Kurt Busch | 20.1 | 233 | 11 | 0 | 919 | 76.1 |
| Austin Dillon | 17.5 | 71 | 6 | 1 | 276 | 75.0 |
| Chase Elliott | 16.5 | 29 | 8 | 0 | 84 | 69.9 |
| Ryan Blaney | 24.0 | 40 | 0 | 0 | 114 | 68.8 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 21.1 | 117 | 3 | 4 | 303 | 68.5 |
| Paul Menard | 18.9 | 182 | 2 | 22 | 480 | 68.0 |
History has shown us that Chevrolet had a complete stranglehold on this historic venue. Until Kyle Busch's win in a Toyota two seasons ago, the previous 12 victories at Indy had gone to Chevrolet drivers of various camps. Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart alone won six of those 12 victories at IMS. With Stewart retired and Johnson week-to-week in terms of performance, certainly other Chevrolet drivers could assert themselves this Sunday afternoon at the Brickyard. Kyle Larson and Jamie McMurray would be two names to immediately come to mind. McMurray is a one-time Brickyard winner, and Larson's performances have been very strong at this facility in a limited number of starts. Both are a threat to win this Sunday afternoon.
Even though Chevy drivers dominated this track for more than a decade, we still can't overlook the top contenders from Ford and Toyota. Busch's win here in 2015 was followed with a second-straight Brickyard 400 win in last season's installment of this event. Busch is still seeking his first win of the season, and this would be the perfect venue to see the No. 18 JGR Toyota team get into the win column. There have never been any three-consecutive Indianapolis winners, so Busch is on the verge of making history this Sunday afternoon. We can't overlook Ford's opportunity to upstage everyone this weekend. Drivers like Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are more than capable of pulling the upset in this Sunday's Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400. We'll take a look at the top contenders and the streaking drivers in the Monster Energy Cup Series, along with historical data in order to give you the drivers you need this weekend to dominate the Brickyard and your fantasy racing league.
The Contenders - Drivers in the hunt for the win
Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star rides a strong two-race Indianapolis win streak and seven-race Top-10 streak at the rectangular oval into this weekend's Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400. With his win in this event one year ago, Busch has two victories and two runner-up finishes in the last five races at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The Brickyard has held a lot of success for him over the years. With the recent retirements of Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart, Busch has really become the most dominant driver at this facility. Coming off the 95 laps led and strong performance at New Hampshire, we wouldn't rule anything out for Busch. He has really been the driver to beat at Indianapolis the past five seasons.
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has been the most dominant driver in the Monster Energy Cup Series this season in a lot of respects. His three victories and 13 Top-10 finishes have the No. 78 team riding atop the championship standings as NASCAR pulls into the Brickyard this weekend. Truex only has three Top 10s in 12-career starts at the historic speedway, but the Top-10 finishes have come in just his last five starts. As he and this racing team have matured, the performances at Indianapolis have improved. In this event one year ago Truex qualified eighth on the grid, raced inside the Top 10 most of the day, and finished eighth after 400 miles of action at Indy. We're willing to bet the No. 78 Toyota has race-winning speed this Sunday afternoon, and Truex could taste the thrill of his first Indianapolis victory.
Kyle Larson – The Ganassi Racing driver shows up with very fast race cars each weekend this season. It's a big reason why Larson has dominated the top of the championship standings most of the first half of this year. He's had very good success at Indy in just the handful of starts he's made here to this point in his career. Larson's three-career starts at the Brickyard have netted seventh-, ninth- and fifth-place finishes. The best of those coming in last season's 400-mile spectacular. The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet has proven his skill and talent at this difficult oval. Normally, Indianapolis Motor Speedway proves to be difficult to master for young drivers, but Larson has totally bucked that stereotype. Given he's turning in a career-best season in 2017, he's poised to challenge for the win in Sunday's Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400.
Jimmie Johnson – Johnson's bad luck of late gives us some pause coming to Indianapolis, but the No. 48 team's excellence here is too good to ignore. The seven-time champion has won four-career victories at this oval, with the last coming in 2012. That makes Johnson the active wins leader at Indianapolis. The No. 48 team showed some signs of life at New Hampshire this past week with the outside pole and 10th-place finish for that event. It shows that Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus are getting things figured out and turned around. While the Hendrick Motorsports star won't be the top threat to win this Sunday afternoon, he will be a good bet to surprise at Indianapolis Motor Speedway.
Solid Plays - Drivers who are near locks for the top 10 with an outside shot at winning
Kevin Harvick – Another great veteran driver to rely on this weekend would be Stewart Haas Racing star Harvick. The No. 4 Ford team is a weekly Top-5 contender as he showed at Loudon this past week. Victories on regular ovals seems a bit out of reach at the moment, but will come in time. Indianapolis has been a very good track for Harvick, with one victory, five Top 5s and 10 Top 10s in 16-career starts. Harvick has led close to 200-career laps at Indianapolis Motor Speedway so he knows all too well what it takes to get to the front and stay there at this rectangular oval. Harvick's runner-up finish at the similar oval in Pocono a few short weeks ago is a good barometer of what to expect this Sunday afternoon.
Denny Hamlin – Hamlin has a series of ups-and-downs in his resume at the Brickyard, but he's come on very strong the last few seasons. After recording only two Top-10 finishes in his first six starts at Indianapolis, the driver of the No. 11 Toyota has collected three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his last five starts at the rectangular oval. Over that five-race span Hamlin has led a noteworthy 49 laps. That shows that he's not just riding in line, but getting to the front and leading laps. Flat tracks have always played to Hamlin's strength as his dominance at Martinsville Speedway has shown over his career. Coming off the big win at Loudon this past weekend, the Joe Gibbs Racing star is poised to challenge the Top 5 at the Brickyard.
Matt Kenseth – The No. 20 Toyota team has been getting better of late. Kenseth registered a strong fourth-place finish at New Hampshire this past week and rides that momentum into the Brickyard. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has piled up some pretty good numbers over his career at Indy. He rides a four-race Brickyard Top-10 streak into Sunday's race. At some point, JGR and this team are going to bring a car strong enough to win here. It may not happen this weekend, but he won't be far off the winner's heels judging by recent history. Toyota has been the manufacturer to beat at Indy in the last couple seasons, so that's a good sign for the No. 20 team. Certainly another Top-10 finish to go with his prior 11 here is in the offing.
Chase Elliott – With five Top 10s in the last seven events, Elliott comes to Indianapolis sixth overall in the championship standings. He's put some of his struggles of the early spring well behind him. The Hendrick Motorsports driver will be making his third-career start at the Brickyard this Sunday afternoon. The two prior starts were nothing of major note (18th- and 15th-), but things should be different this time. Elliott registered a solid eighth-place finish at the similar oval in Pocono back in June. The No. 24 Chevrolet team has been very good on the ovals larger than 1.5-mile this season. We expect the young driver to register his first-career Indianapolis Top 10 this Sunday afternoon.
Sleepers - Drivers with good history at Indianapolis who can provide a solid finish
Brad Keselowski – Keselowski has struggled a bit of late. That is the primary reason for the sleepers list this week as opposed to solid plays. Still, the Penske Racing star brings a lot of upside to Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has only seven-career starts at Indianapolis. Those have yielded three Top-10 finishes but 76 laps led. Coming off the Top-10 New Hampshire finish we expect the veteran driver to show up with a fast car this weekend at the Brickyard. Keselowski won't be a major player for the victory, but he should manage to crack the Top 10 in this 400-mile battle on the historic grounds of Indianapolis.
Clint Bowyer – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran has 11-career starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and despite only three Top-10 finishes, he has a steady level of performance here over the last decade. Bowyer has six Top-15 finishes in those starts, and a very respectable average finish of 13.5 across those starts. He has finished on the lead lap of all but one of his 11 starts at the storied Brickyard, and he's never crashed out. That is some fantasy racing peace of mind with his selection this weekend. The No. 14 team is preforming at a pretty high level entering this weekend. Bowyer has two runner-up finishes, three Top 10s and four Top 15s in the last four events. He seems poised for a Top-10 finish Sunday at the Brickyard.
Kurt Busch – The Indianapolis resume has been a mixed bag for the driver of the No. 41 Ford. Busch's five Top-10 finishes in 16 starts wouldn't normally inspire much confidence entering this weekend. However, it's been the body of work this season that makes this Stewart Haas Racing driver a steady play at the Brickyard. He has four Top 10s in the last eight events and he's coming off a steady eighth-place finish this past weekend at the Magic Mile. Busch's last two Brickyard finishes have been eighth- and 16th-place. In the end analysis most fantasy racing players won't pick on Busch this weekend because of his spotty history at this track, but his current level of performance warrant a fantasy start this weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – In staying with the hot hand, we have to keep the No. 17 Ford team circled this week on the sleepers list. Stenhouse has been racing well in 2017, and he has a win, two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in the last six races. There's no reason to expect this driver and team to cool off this Sunday afternoon at the Brickyard. His effort in this event one year ago yielded a 12th-place finish for Stenhouse. That has been his best effort to-date at the 2.5-mile oval. The Roush Fenway Racing driver registered a respectable 11th-place finish at the similar oval in Pocono a few weeks ago. The indicators look pretty good for this driver and team to stay on a roll at Indianapolis.
Ryan Blaney – The driver of the No. 21 Ford will be happy to see another large oval this weekend. The 19th-place finish at Loudon underscores the problems this driver and team have had on the short tracks. However, the large ovals have been quite the opposite. The young driver will be making his third-career start at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this weekend. Blaney had a stellar 12th-place finish in his Brickyard debut 2 years ago, but his return didn't go as well. He crashed and finished 36th here last season. There's good reason to expect a rebound this Sunday afternoon. Blaney won his first-career victory at the similar oval in Pocono a few weeks ago, so the No. 21 Wood Brothers Racing team could have a ton of upside in this 400-mile race.
Erik Jones – Even though Jones flopped pretty epically at Loudon this past week (crash and last place finish), we're still not down on the driver of the No. 77 Toyota. Prior to his New Hampshire let down he had hooked up a pair of Top-10 finishes at Daytona and Kentucky. The Furniture Row Racing rookie will be making his first-career start at Indianapolis, but he does have two-career Xfinity Series starts at the historic oval. That experience will come in handy this weekend. Jones led 20 laps and turned in a very impressive third-place finish at the Tricky Triangle (Pocono) a few weeks ago, and that style of racing is very similar to what we see at Indianapolis. This young driver is poised to rebound in a big way Sunday afternoon.
Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week
Joey Logano – Logano has fantastic Indianapolis numbers. He has five total Top-10 finishes in eight starts at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. He also rides a four-race Indy Top-10 streak into Sunday's race. However, the veteran driver has been wildly inconsistent in recent weeks. Only two of his last 10 starts have netted Top-10 finishes, and he's coming off a poor 37th-place finish at Loudon, which is one of his better short tracks. The signs show that the No. 22 Ford team is buried up to the necks in a tough slump. On paper Logano makes a great fantasy racing start this weekend, but there's a tremendous risk associated with his selection due to his current level of performance.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. – His last three weeks' results have yielded 32nd-, 12th- and 18th-place finishes. Those results fall far below what we expect for this driver and team. Earnhardt has yet to hook up any strings of consistent finishes, and he's proving to be a risky weekly fantasy racing play. His Indianapolis history shows five Top-10 finishes in 16-career starts, which works out to a 31-percent rate. That's well below what we'd normally endorse for success based on track specific history. The No. 88 Chevrolet team is really in disarray right now, so it's buyer beware with Earnhardt at Indianapolis Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon.
Trevor Bayne – The spring hot streak has ended and the No. 6 Ford team has looked less than impressive of late. Bayne nabbed a pair of Top 10s and eight Top-15 finishes in the first 11 races and left Kansas 14th in the driver point standings. Since then, things have been tougher for this driver and team. Bayne has no Top-15 finishes in the last eight events, and has fallen to 19th-place in the standings as a result. Bayne will be making his seventh-career start at Indy this weekend. To this point, it's been a tremendous struggle for this driver at the historic speedway. With one Top-20 finish and four finishes outside the Top-30, Bayne carries a bloated 31.3 average finish at this oval. It's best to keep Bayne on the bench for this one.
Kasey Kahne – The No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports team seems to currently be in total free-fall. Kahne is mired in a nine-race Top-10 drought and he has a devastating five DNF's during that span. This driver and team have gone stone cold entering July and coming to the Brickyard. Kahne had a good bit of success at this oval earlier in his career with four Top 10s in his first six starts at the historic oval. However, things have been tougher in recent seasons. Kahne has only two Top-10 finishes in his last seven starts at the Indiana speedway. That's not a good trend considering how much this driver and team are struggling right now. Kahne is a driver to avoid in the Brantley Gilbert Big Machine Brickyard 400.
