Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Preview: World's Fastest Half Mile

This weekend we return to the famous short track in Bristol, Tenn., for the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.  The high-contact, short-track action under the lights is one of the most popular races in the schedule.  

It's been a long, hard haul since race No. 7 of the season, which was the last time NASCAR's top division visited Thunder Valley.  Since that time we've seen Denny Hamlin dominate the championship standings lead for the most part, with a good challenge from Kyle Larson.  We've seen Hamlin and Larson completely pound the competition into the ground.  We've seen Aric Almirola's big upset victory at Loudon.  We've also seen AJ Allmendinger's second career win at the Indy GP circuit.  More recently we witnessed Ryan Blaney's back-to-back wins at Michigan and Daytona.  So a lot has happened since the NASCAR Cup Series last visited the high banks of BMS. 

This visit to Bristol Motor Speedway will be different than the recent past.  The late-summer Bristol race is no longer a part of the regular season schedule, but now makes up the first segment of the Chase for the Cup playoffs.  This is the third race of the Chase and the cutoff to advance into the second round of the NASCAR playoffs.  To advance, drivers simply have to win or be below the cut line of the Top 12 in the championship points.  That added urgency to advance will really crank up the pressure for this 500-lap battle.  Tensions will be high, and so will be the pressure to advance and stay in the battle for the 2021 championship.   

In preparing our fantasy race teams this week, we'll need to take a close look at the last 16 years at Bristol Motor Speedway in order to collect some recent data on the drivers.  The loop stats from these 32 races will be very useful.  This span will cover Bristol's recent history and should bear some great data.  In forming this week's driver list we'll also pay some attention to current hot streaks.  Drivers who raced well at Richmond should carry that momentum into the World's Fastest Half Mile this Saturday night.  Here are the loop stats for the top-performing Bristol drivers, sorted by driver rating. 

This season's first race at Bristol Motor Speedway in March of this year, we actually raced on dirt.  The speedway brought in hundreds of truckloads of clay and dirt and filled the normally paved short track with dirt fill.  The result was the first-ever dirt race in the modern era at Bristol, the Food City Dirt Race.  Joey Logano would prevail in that special event.  However, there were many surprises in the finishing order due to the unusual conditions and racing surface.  There was an abundance of caution flags (eight total) due to accidents over just 250 scheduled laps.  From our standpoint of examining this weekend's Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, the race earlier this season at BMS is really not of much help.  In fact, we believe it skews any historical examination or statistics.  For our purposes it's likely more helpful to follow the loop data in the table above and focus on the recent Bristol races prior to this season's dirt race.  Keep that in mind as we roll forward with our prognostications below.

If we look back at the previous three seasons of racing on the asphalt at Bristol, we see the trend that Toyota drivers have laid down.  Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin have each won in the last five races at the Tennessee short track.  The duo will be drivers of primary focus this week with the playoffs well under way.  With this race serving as the cutoff to the Round of 12 in the Chase, we're going to see a lot of contact and pushing this week.  Manners will go out the window, and it will be a mad scramble to advance in the Chase for the Cup.  Let's take a look at the historical loop stats and recent hot streaks and see if we can clear up the picture, and give you the drivers you need this weekend to conquer the high banks of Bristol Motor Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Denny Hamlin – Coming off a runner-up finish at Richmond, Hamlin is poised to make a big splash at Bristol this Saturday night.  The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is a two-time Bristol winner and most recently in 2019.  Hamlin cracks the Top 5 at a strong 30-percent rate and he's led well over 800 laps for his career at this half-mile oval.  He tends to step it up a notch for the events under the lights, so optimism in that trend should be even higher.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led over 200 laps in his last three Bristol starts alone.  With the next round of the playoffs approaching, Hamlin is capable of a statement win this weekend in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.

Kyle Larson – Larson has never won at the Bristol short track, but he's been painfully close in recent seasons.  The Hendrick Motorsports star owns two runner-up finishes and five Top-10 finishes in his last six Bristol starts.  During the span he's led well over 500 laps at the high-banked oval.  This weekend's event will be his first Bristol start with his new Hendrick No. 5 team.  They've operated like a precision instrument this season, earning five victories to this point in 2021.  Larson may finally have all the right ingredients in place to earn his first Bristol victory this weekend.  With the playoffs well underway, the importance of a win at Bristol can't be understated.  Larson will drive with utmost purpose in this 500-lap battle under the lights.

Kyle Busch – The eight-time Bristol winner has had his way in recent trips to the Tennessee short track.  Busch enters the weekend with one win and a four-race Bristol Top-5 streak in tow.  The Joe Gibbs Racing star has led well over 350 laps combined in his last four Bristol starts.  These recent outings have only bolstered what is already an amazing career racing record at this historic short track.  In addition to Busch's eight wins, he has 14 Top-5 finishes (45-percent) and led well over 2,500 laps.  With a ticket to the next round of the Chase for the Cup in the balance, we expect Busch to step up his game this Saturday night.  He'll be one of the top contenders to win at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Joey Logano – Logano has been heating up of late with the playoffs underway.  His eighth- and fifth-place finishes at Darlington and Richmond are the evidence.  A visit to the Tennessee short track should be just what the doctor ordered to keep the streak rolling.  Logano has two-career victories at Bristol Motor Speedway, the latest as recently as 2015.  His 41-percent career Top-10 rate is a little lower than what we'd like to see for a contender to win, but Logano's 750+ career laps led at BMS illustrate his ability to race out front here.  The driver of the No. 22 Penske Racing Ford is quite capable of pulling the upset in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet is gearing up to advance deep into the Chase playoffs, and no better place than Bristol to make a run at a very important win, and lock into the next round.  Elliott has 10-career starts at Bristol Motor Speedway and they've yielded five Top-10 finishes.  Our major reason for optimism this weekend for the Hendrick Motorsports driver is twofold.  Elliott is coming off a strong Top-5 finish at the Richmond short track this past weekend.  Secondly, his performances of the last six weeks have been on point.  Elliott has nabbed three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes in his last six starts with over 150 laps led during the span.  There is great potential for Elliott this weekend.     

Kevin Harvick – Coming off an eighth-place Richmond finish, the No. 4 Stewart Haas Racing team is trying to turn up the heat coming into the Bristol night race.  Harvick has no victories for the season, but he's managed to be a consistent Top-10 performer most weeks.  Bristol is more of a Top-10 oval for this driver, despite his victory in this event last year.  He's a three-time Bristol winner.  Harvick has 20-career Top-10 finishes at Bristol Motor Speedway and that checks in at a strong 50-percent rate.  With this driver and team looking to lock into round 2 of the Chase, we expect Harvick to peddle hard to another Top-10 finish in this 500-lap battle. 

Kurt Busch – Despite Busch's tough luck DNF at Richmond this past week, we have high expectations for him at Bristol.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has six-career wins at Bristol Motor Speedway, including this event three seasons ago.  Busch has four Top 10's in his last five starts at the half-mile oval.  He's now amassed 21-career Top-10 finishes at the Bristol short track, and that checks in at a strong 53-percent rate.  Busch has been racing well until his crash at Richmond this past week.  So there's a lot of optimism for him to rebound this Saturday night.  Bristol Motor Speedway has been a go-to track for this driver for many years.  Busch should be a top performer in this 500-lap brawl under the lights. 

Brad Keselowski – The three-time Bristol winner is looking to turn up his playoff performance and carry some momentum into the Round of 12 of the Chase.  Bristol presents the opportunity for the No. 2 Ford team to up their performance and get deeper in to the playoffs.  Keselowski won the spring event last season at BMS for his third victory at the track, and he's cracked the Top 5 in two of his last three visits to East Tennessee.  The career Top-10 average is low (32-percent) but it's indicative of his roller coaster level of performance at this track over his 11-season career.  However, Keselowski has led a combined 300+ laps in his last four Bristol starts which suggests he's been racing up front a lot here of late.  He has great potential in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Bristol & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Bell is coming off a fantastic third-place finish at Richmond and totally all over our radar screens as we come to Bristol this week.  The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster shook off a poor four-race stretch to impress at the Virginia short track last Saturday evening.  Bell will now sharpen his focus on a Bristol short track that has given him some good performances in his brief NASCAR career.  The driver of the No. 20 Toyota grabbed one Top 10 in two starts at BMS last season and he owns one win and one runner-up finish in four-career Xfinity Series starts at the famous half-mile oval.  Bell is having a very good second season in the Cup Series, and he should challenge the Top 10 in Saturday night's playoff race under the lights at Bristol.      

Ross Chastain – Another driver who has really impressed us of late is Chastain.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has really stepped up things a few notches in his last two races.  Chastain grabbed a brilliant third-place finish at Darlington two weeks ago and a strong seventh-place finish last weekend at Richmond.  The uptick in performance for the No. 42 team has been hard to ignore.  Chastain doesn't have an impressive Bristol resume as he only has four Cup Series starts previously at the track, and with a much less-equipped team than his current outfit.  A good measure is to look to his recent Xfinity Series outings at this facility.  Chastain has one runner-up finish, two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last five Xfinity starts at Bristol Motor Speedway.  We believe he's prepped for success in this 500-lap battle.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney rallied back to a Top-10 finish at Richmond last week after his subpar 22nd-place Darlington finish.  The driver of the No. 12 Ford is doing everything he can to turn up his performance for a deep drive into the Chase.  Bristol Motor Speedway has been an oval of inconsistency for the young driver.  With only four-career Top 10's, Blaney's Top-10 rate at BMS is just 36-percent.  However, three of those have come in his last five starts at the Tennessee short track.  Blaney has led a surprising 439 laps at Bristol in his brief Cup Series career.  He normally brings good speed to these races.  It should all add up to a Top-10 finish Saturday night.              

Austin Dillon – The veteran RCR driver may not be a part of the playoff picture, but Dillon has been looking pretty sharp in recent races.  The driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet has finishes of 17th-, 10th- and 11th-place in his last three events.  Bristol Motor Speedway presents another short track opportunity for Dillon to keep on rolling.  In 14-career starts he's just earned three Top-10 finishes, but he's collected a wide number (10) of Top-15 finishes.  Recent outings for the No. 3 team at BMS have been on point with sixth- and 12th-place finishes at the track last season.  Dillon has the track-specific performance and momentum to challenge the Top 10 Saturday night in the Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race.

Tyler Reddick – Dillon's teammate should be an equally strong fantasy racing choice for this third playoff race.  Unlike Dillon, Reddick is in the middle of the playoff battle and fighting to advance into the Round of 12 of the Chase.  The good news for this young driver is that his "last look" at Bristol resulted in an impressive fourth-place finish in this event one year ago.  That was one of just two Cup Series starts for the driver at Bristol Motor Speedway.  In his Xfinity Series career, Reddick is a one-time winner and one-time runner-up finisher along with four Top 10's.  It's been a very successful track in his ascension to NASCAR's top division.  The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet was Top 15 last weekend at Richmond and he should be at least that good at Bristol.       

Erik Jones – Jones has had his struggles this Summer, but he's had a few highlights along the way.  The Richard Petty Motorsports driver was a brilliant seventh-place at the Indy road circuit and 11th-place recently at Daytona.  The skilled youngster is capable of surprise efforts with this small race team.  Jones has always loved the Bristol mixing bowl as his two Xfinity Series wins (2016 and 2017) illustrate.  His four-career Top 10's at BMS in eight-career Cup Series starts works out to a respectable 50-percent average.  We have to temper our expectations a bit as the bulk of those numbers came with Joe Gibbs Racing.  However, Jones has clearly shown he knows how to navigate this challenging short track.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

William Byron – One of the hottest drivers to start the 2021 season has fallen on rough times of late.  The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has had it tough the last month or so.  Byron's last five races have just one Top-10 finish vs. three DNF's.  He's plummeted to 15th-place in the playoff standings and racing for his post-season life this weekend at Bristol.  The hopes to advance will help, but his Bristol resume is concerning.  Byron's six-career starts at BMS have only netted one Top-10 finish and a subpar 20.7 average finish.  Frankly, he has struggled to maintain the lead lap in many of his Bristol starts.  The track specific history and his recent struggles lead us to recommend benching Byron for this important playoff race.

Martin Truex Jr. – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been pretty good this season, and he's coming off the big win at Richmond this past week.  However, Bristol has always been the Achilles Heel track for this veteran driver over the years.  Truex's career numbers at Bristol Motor Speedway are less-than-inspiring.  He has only three Top-10 finishes in 30 starts.  Other than a Top-10 finish in the spring 2017 Bristol event, which we would consider to be an outlier, Truex has failed to crack the Top 10 at this facility since the 2012 season.  All that toil has lowered his Bristol Top-10 rate to a lowly 10-percent.  The driver of the No. 19 Toyota could jump up and surprise this weekend, but we would put those odds as very slim.  Certainly, in weekly lineup leagues, you would be best served to save his starts for later in the Chase at more friendly intermediate ovals.         

Michael McDowell – McDowell's 28th-place finish at Richmond this past week was completely predictable and the beginning of the end of his first-ever playoff run.  The Front Row Motorsports veteran has only cracked the Top 20 once in his last nine starts and he's gone stone cold entering the playoffs.  McDowell's history at Bristol doesn't inspire much hope of a Hail Mary miracle this Saturday night.   In 21-career starts he has just one Top-10 and two Top-15 finishes.  The career average finish stands at an inflated 29.9.  McDowell has had a fantastic, career season in 2021, but his struggles the last half of the Summer are reason enough to pass on staring him at Bristol Motor Speedway.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – It's been a very tough season for Stenhouse and the No. 47 Chevrolet team.  With only two Top-10 finishes he comes to Bristol this weekend a distant 21st-place in the point standings.  Stenhouse is coming off a disappointing 23rd-place finish at Richmond this past weekend.  Bristol Motor Speedway has typically been a track of success for Stenhouse, but his level of performance at this half-mile oval dropped off a cliff three seasons ago.  His last five starts at Bristol Motor Speedway have netted 24th-, 33rd-, 33rd-, 34th- and 40th-place finishes.  Things have been so frustrating that Stenhouse has failed to finish his last three starts at the Tennessee short track.  It's better to look elsewhere for your fantasy racing league help this week.