This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.
We've reached the cut for the second round in the Chase for the Cup. This weekend's event at Charlotte Motor Speedway is race six of 10 in the playoff format that crowns the NASCAR Cup Series champion. This event signals the end of the Round of 12 as four drivers will be eliminated from the field of playoff drivers after this race.
For this very crucial race NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway offer the fourth annual road course race at the North Carolina oval. Three seasons ago the folks at CMS constructed a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course that incorporates most of the 1.5-mile oval and additional twists and turns on the infield for what the track calls a "roval" course. The configuration and type is very similar to the road course that Daytona International Speedway uses for both NASCAR and IMSA. This relatively new wrinkle in the Chase lineup of tracks will be a real curveball for the drivers this weekend, as most are out of their comfort zone on a road course as opposed to a true oval. The fact that most of the field raced on the Roval the last three seasons will help with some familiarity, but it's still a major departure from the weekly NASCAR track. When we add the newness of this event and course with the fact that it's a "cut race" in the Chase, the pressure to finish well will be enormous. Those drivers that don't find bad luck, or don't crack under
We've reached the cut for the second round in the Chase for the Cup. This weekend's event at Charlotte Motor Speedway is race six of 10 in the playoff format that crowns the NASCAR Cup Series champion. This event signals the end of the Round of 12 as four drivers will be eliminated from the field of playoff drivers after this race.
For this very crucial race NASCAR and Charlotte Motor Speedway offer the fourth annual road course race at the North Carolina oval. Three seasons ago the folks at CMS constructed a 2.28-mile, 17-turn road course that incorporates most of the 1.5-mile oval and additional twists and turns on the infield for what the track calls a "roval" course. The configuration and type is very similar to the road course that Daytona International Speedway uses for both NASCAR and IMSA. This relatively new wrinkle in the Chase lineup of tracks will be a real curveball for the drivers this weekend, as most are out of their comfort zone on a road course as opposed to a true oval. The fact that most of the field raced on the Roval the last three seasons will help with some familiarity, but it's still a major departure from the weekly NASCAR track. When we add the newness of this event and course with the fact that it's a "cut race" in the Chase, the pressure to finish well will be enormous. Those drivers that don't find bad luck, or don't crack under the pressure will move on in the playoffs.
Since this is just the fourth race at a new NASCAR course, we have very little in the way of historical data to examine. That does put us at a bit of a disadvantage. However, we're not completely unarmed with numbers. We do have the loop data from the last three seasons at the Charlotte Roval. Those numbers along with the historically strong road course drivers will form the backbone of our fantasy racing picks this weekend. In the table below are the driver's loop stats from last three Bank of America Roval 400s, sorted by driver rating.
| Driver | Avg. Finish | Quality Passes | # of Fastest Laps | Laps Led | Laps in Top 15 | Driver Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 2.7 | 111 | 49 | 62 | 278 | 124.5 |
| Kyle Larson | 19.0 | 37 | 39 | 52 | 171 | 110.1 |
| William Byron | 15.3 | 91 | 21 | 50 | 252 | 105.2 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | 9.3 | 85 | 21 | 6 | 260 | 103.0 |
| Kevin Harvick | 7.7 | 63 | 14 | 34 | 262 | 102.3 |
| Ryan Blaney | 4.7 | 78 | 26 | 30 | 235 | 100.4 |
| Joey Logano | 7.3 | 55 | 5 | 4 | 209 | 98.1 |
| Brad Keselowski | 18.0 | 87 | 11 | 39 | 244 | 95.5 |
| Kurt Busch | 9.7 | 90 | 12 | 7 | 224 | 94.2 |
| Alex Bowman | 4.7 | 66 | 6 | 2 | 169 | 87.8 |
| Christopher Bell | 24.0 | 26 | 4 | 6 | 82 | 85.0 |
| Cole Custer | 9.0 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 41 | 81.4 |
| AJ Allmendinger | 7.0 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 63 | 80.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 33.0 | 51 | 3 | 3 | 214 | 78.8 |
| Tyler Reddick | 12.0 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 56 | 74.8 |
| Ryan Preece | 17.5 | 41 | 0 | 8 | 75 | 72.7 |
| Aric Almirola | 16.3 | 65 | 0 | 0 | 134 | 71.9 |
| Denny Hamlin | 15.3 | 29 | 5 | 0 | 114 | 69.4 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | 15.3 | 53 | 1 | 0 | 108 | 66.2 |
| Michael McDowell | 20.7 | 51 | 0 | 0 | 122 | 65.3 |
Since we're running just our fourth race on the Roval, we're going to be very light on historical records this weekend. We have three races to examine, and that data while helpful can't be the entirety of our analysis. The road course at Charlotte will continue carving out its reputation and history this weekend. If we look back on last season's Bank of America Roval 400, we saw another strong performance by Chase Elliott to win his second-straight event at the Roval. He would lead 27 of the 109 laps and run away from Joey Logano in the closing minutes. Now with two victories at the challenging circuit, all eyes are squarely on Elliott this weekend as he seeks the three-peat.
In addition to the last three races on the Roval, we're going to rely heavily on the road course statistics of 2021. NASCAR will be staging their seventh and final race of the season on a road course this weekend, which is a modern-day high for road course events in a single season. This is really the most important data we can examine for this race. With so many unknowns, there are sure to be some surprises and even some bad days for some of the NASCAR stars. We won't be surprised by anything we see this Sunday in the Bank of America Roval 400. So fasten your seat belts and get ready for some excitement, as NASCAR throws a major curveball at the competitors for this sixth race of the Chase for the Cup. The following are our picks for fantasy racing success at the Charlotte Roval.
The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win
Chase Elliott – He's been the most dominant road course driver of the last few seasons. Seven of Elliott's 13-career wins have been collected on road course style tracks. This season alone he's grabbed two victories (COTA and Road America) and two runner-up finishes on the winding circuits. With 100 combined laps led in those six events, Elliott has been setting the pace more often than not. The Hendrick Motorsports star has won the last two Charlotte Roval events in impressive fashion. Last season, he led 27 laps from the pole position and ran away from Joey Logano to capture the win in that installment of the Bank of America Roval 400. Elliott will be the man to beat Sunday in Charlotte.
Kyle Larson – Larson has tried to match Elliott step-for-step this season on the road circuits. The fellow Hendrick Motorsports driver has two wins (Sonoma and Watkins Glen) and one runner-up finish at COTA. Larson has led 116 laps and really been the only driver in the field who's proven a match for Elliott in this style of racing. The uptick in road course performance in 2021 goes against his career-long numbers on these tracks, but is no less impressive. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has elevated his game in road course racing and cannot be underestimated on the Roval. Larson's two-career starts at this facility are unimpressive, but that should swing to the spectacular in Sunday's 109-lap battle.
Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing star has been a strong road course performer in 2021. While he hasn't snagged a win, he does have three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes along with 40 laps led on these style tracks. The one race course in the schedule that is similar to the Charlotte Roval is the road circuit at Daytona. Hamlin led 5 laps and cruised to a third-place finish in that event early this season. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota has been somewhat mediocre in his three-prior Roval starts with an average finish of 15.3. However, there is ample evidence to suggest Sunday's outcome will be much better. Hamlin has the skill to crack the Top 5 and possibly challenge for the win if the breaks go his way.
Ryan Blaney – Blaney is not really known for much road racing prowess, but his Charlotte Roval stats are difficult to overlook. The Penske Racing star was the inaugural winner of this event in 2018. He led 16 laps that Fall afternoon en route to the victory. Blaney has returned each of the last two seasons and racked up eighth- and fifth-place finishes in those follow-up Roval starts. His fifth-place effort of one year ago included 14 laps led. The driver of the No. 12 Ford has been a top performer at this facility during its brief history. Blaney finished runner-up in his last road course outing which is the hybrid course in Indianapolis. He'll be razor sharp for Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.
Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win
Joey Logano – Logano racked up three Top-5 finishes in six starts this season on the road racing circuits. It's been sort of a mixed bag on these style tracks for the Penske Racing star, but the oval-hybrid tracks have been places of success the last couple seasons for this veteran driver. Logano's three Charlotte Roval outings have netted a pair of steady 10th-place finishes and one brilliant runner-up finish in this event one year ago. In addition, his most recent performance on the Daytona road course was an equally impressive second-place finish in the O'Reilly Auto Parts 253 in February. Logano is not a major threat to lead laps and win these events, but he's a consistent performer and can fetch a strong Top-5 finish in Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.
Martin Truex Jr. – Truex has been a top road course performer for most of his NASCAR career. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes this season on the winding circuits for a steady 12.8 average finish. Truex nearly won the inaugural Bank of America Roval 400 in 2018, but was taken out by Jimmie Johnson within eyesight of the finish line. He's returned to the Charlotte Roval the last two seasons and nabbed a pair of seventh-place finishes in those starts. With advancement in the Chase playoffs hanging in the balance, you can bet Truex and his No. 19 Toyota team will bring their "A" game to the Charlotte Roval.
Kevin Harvick – Harvick is not typically a big threat to win on road circuits. It's been since Sonoma in 2017 since he last won a road course. However, he's been a great performer on certain tracks, and the hybrid-ovals have been some of those facilities of success. Harvick's three-career starts at the Charlotte Roval have netted ninth-, third- and 11th-place finishes for a very strong 7.7 average finish. The driver of the No. 4 SHR Ford grabbed a strong sixth-place finish on the Daytona road course earlier this season for his top road course performance of the 2021 campaign. With championship implications heavy on the air this weekend at Charlotte, we expect Harvick to be razor sharp.
Kurt Busch – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has been one of the top road course performers for years in NASCAR's top division. Busch is a one-time Sonoma winner (2011), and he cracks the Top 10 at better than a 50-percent rate at the Cup Series road circuits. That level puts the driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet at an elite level for road course performance. With four Top 10's this season and average finish of 10.0 over his last six road course events, these tracks are easily his best in the schedule. Busch won the pole for the inaugural Bank of America Roval 400, and led 7 total laps before finishing a very impressive fifth-place at the Charlotte Roval. In this event one year ago he finished an equally impressive fourth-place for his second Top 5 at the North Carolina road course. Busch is a driver to watch closely in Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.
Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Charlotte & solid upside
AJ Allmendinger – The Xfinity Series regular will be making his fifth road course start of the season this weekend at the Charlotte Roval. To this point the results have been pretty stellar for the Kaulig Racing veteran. Allmendinger has one win (Indy GP), two Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in his four road course starts of 2021. This will be the veteran driver's second-career start at the Charlotte Roval. Allmendinger started on the outside pole and raced to a strong seventh-place finish in the inaugural Roval event in 2018. He'll lean heavily on that experience this weekend. With two-career victories and a near-50-percent Top-10 rate on these style tracks, the road courses are easily his best tracks on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit.
Alex Bowman – Bowman is still barely alive in the playoff picture and he's needing a miracle to advance coming into Charlotte this week. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran is 52 points behind the cutoff for advancement and needs a win to make the next cut. This style of racing has been great for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet the last few seasons. Bowman has finishes of fourth-, second- and eighth-place in his three prior starts at the Charlotte Roval. Those numbers are among the best in the series. Bowman has nabbed three Top 10's this season on the road course circuit, including a 10th-place finish at the similar Daytona oval-hybrid. The veteran driver really likes this style of racing and it shows in the results.
Christopher Bell – Bell was the surprise winner on the Daytona road course earlier this season and he also fetched a runner-up finish at Road America during the Summer. It has been a bit of a mixed bag on the road course tracks in 2021, but it's clear that Bell likes the oval-hybrids. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota finished 24th in his Cup Series debut at the Charlotte Roval last season, but we're certain he's in for a better performance this Sunday. Bell is thick in the middle of the battle to secure a playoff spot in the Round of 8 of the Chase. He's 28 points back of the cutoff line to advance, so you know he'll be racing with urgency in this Bank of America Roval 400.
Tyler Reddick – The playoffs may be over for Reddick, but he's still racing hard and trying to get the best points finish he can in 2021. The Richard Childress Racing youngster comes to the Charlotte Roval this weekend looking for his 15th Top-10 finish of the season. Reddick is coming off a disappointing crash and DNF at Talladega this past weekend. He should rebound nicely in the Bank of America Roval 400. Reddick has three Top-10 finishes this season on the road course circuit for a respectable 50-percent rate. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet made his Charlotte Roval debut last season with a steady 12th-place finish. Reddick will be at least that good, if not better in Sunday's playoff race in Charlotte.
Ross Chastain – The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran has been a good road course performer this season. With three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes in the six races to-date for a steady 16.3 average finish. The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet ran into some trouble this past week at Talladega, but he should rebound more to his average form at the Charlotte Roval. Chastain has two-career starts at the Charlotte oval-hybrid but they were with less-equipped teams than his current CGR outfit. The journeyman driver should crack the Top 15 and possibly challenge the Top 10 in this 109-lap battle on the Charlotte Roval.
Chase Briscoe – It's been a tough rookie campaign for Briscoe but he's come on strong as the Summer has faded into Fall. The driver of the No. 14 SHR Ford rides a three-race Top-15 streak into Charlotte this weekend for the Bank of America Roval 400. Briscoe has been quite good this season on the road circuits and all three of his Top 10's to this point in the season have come on these style tracks. The young Stewart Haas Racing driver logged Top-10 finishes at COTA, Road America and Watkins Glen and carries a respectable 16.0 average finish on these tracks into Charlotte this week. This will be Briscoe's Cup Series debut at the facility, but in three-career Xfinity starts he has one victory and two Top-10 finishes in three starts at the Roval along with an eye-popping 77 laps led.
Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week
Kyle Busch – After last week's disappointment at Talladega we have to be very reserved about Busch this week. For a second straight week he visits one of his tougher tracks to fetch results. Historically, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has been a great performer on the conventional road courses, but these oval style circuits have not been kind to the No. 18 team. Busch has crashed or finished 30th or worse in his three prior starts at the Charlotte Roval. In addition to those disappointments, he has finishes of 37th- and 35th-place in his two starts at the similar Daytona road course. For whatever reason, Busch struggles with this style of racing. It's best to leave him on the bench until we return to a regular oval.
Daniel Suarez – The Trackhouse Racing veteran has had some fantasy racing utility this season, but he's cooled off a good bit in the latter half of the season. Suarez comes to Charlotte a distant 25th-place in the point standings and looking to turn his luck around going into the late season. It will be an uphill climb based on his road course stats of this season. Suarez has just one Top-15 performance vs. four finishes outside the Top 30 this year on the winding tracks. The average finish is checking in at a woeful 27.5. Additionally, he's had trouble with this Charlotte Roval. Suarez has no Top-20 finishes in his three prior starts at the facility and a poor 26.7 average finish in those efforts. It's best to look elsewhere for your fantasy racing help this weekend than the No. 99 Chevrolet team.
William Byron – The young driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet is fighting for his life in the playoffs. Byron sits 44 points back of Kyle Busch and the cutoff to make the Round of 8 coming to Charlotte this week. The pressure to perform will be off the charts. After a disappointing crash at Talladega this past weekend, the young driver will be looking desperately to rebound. Byron has been more miss than hit during this season's Chase and he's been equally inconsistent on the road circuits in 2021. Byron has just one Top-10 finish in six road course starts this season vs. two DNF's for an inflated 25.2 average finish. The odds are slim of Byron advancing in the Chase and chances are he'll find trouble again in Sunday's Bank of America Roval 400.
Bubba Wallace – The rain-shortened Talladega win on Monday was a huge boost to this driver's morale and boost to his NASCAR career. Unfortunately for Wallace, he won't likely keep the magic going at the Charlotte Roval. The very technical course has been a real puzzle for the 23XI Racing driver. His three prior starts have netted 36th-, 24th- and 21st-place finishes for an inflated average of 27.0. That's actually a bit worse than Wallace's recent history on road courses in general. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has no Top-10 finishes in his six road course starts this season and an average finish of 23.2. Wallace has reaped some rewards on the intermediate and larger ovals this season, but it's quite clear we need to remain pessimistic about his chances on the winding road courses.
