Auto Club 400 Preview: Big Oval Action

As we put last weekend's thrills of the multi-groove Las Vegas race track behind us, the NASCAR Cup Series stays out west this week.  NASCAR's top touring series comes to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif., for the one and only visit to this huge, two-mile oval for the 2020 season.  

The racing action this week will take on a similar look to Las Vegas as the drivers will compete on a wide open oval that is moderately banked, with only 14-degree banking in the corners.  The huge track is very forgiving from a handling standpoint as there are many grooves to race in.  In fact, it is not unusual to see traffic jams go four or five lanes wide, especially on restarts.  If your car isn't working low, you can head up the banking and ride the top around the outside wall.  If your car doesn't work there you can head to the middle of the track and find a happy medium.  It's this versatility that allows lots of long green-flag runs, very few wrecks and an emphasis on fuel mileage as a result.  With the many racing grooves to choose from, restarts can be a bit chaotic.  It's not unusual to see some three- and four-wide racing on this very wide oval.  Drivers will make use of that fresh rubber to grab as many positions as possible on the restarts.  This will be our first event of the season on a two-mile oval.  It will be interesting to see which teams hit the pavement rolling on this huge, sweeping track.  Those that do will be headed for success at Auto Club Speedway and later in the summer at the similar oval in Michigan.

Let's look at the loop stats for the last 21 races at Auto Club Speedway for some background on the drivers.  This information should prove to be quite helpful since it is early in the season and we don't have much to base the drivers on large oval performance right now other than their Daytona 500 outings.  This speedway has been one marked by historical trends and manufacturer dominance, so the loop stats should come in very handy for the Auto Club 400. 

This will be the second time racing at Fontana with the new aerodynamic package from last year.  We should be able to look very closely at this event one year ago for some data and drivers.  Last year's Auto Club 400 will be a good preview of things that could come this Sunday afternoon.  Now that we're entering our third race of the season we should begin to see some trends form.  We've had a superspeedway and an intermediate oval to this point, and the track at Auto Club Speedway will be our first two-mile oval in the schedule. 

Speaking of trends, with Kyle Busch's dominant victory in this event one year ago, Toyota extended its win streak at the Southern California speedway to two races.  It was the veteran driver's fourth-career victory at Fontana and third since the 2013 season.  Busch was preceded by Martin Truex Jr. who won the 2018 event at the two-mile oval.  Busch will make a much-anticipated return to Auto Club Speedway and seek to extend Toyota's streak at one of his favorite tracks.  Toyota's current grip on the two-mile oval could likely be short-lived as most Ford teams are running in top form entering the weekend.  Kevin Harvick and Joey Logano are running well, and the Penske Racing duo of Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski are near the top of the finishing order almost every week.  The Auto Club 400 could provide the opportunity for a Ford driver to win and end a short dry spell for the brand at Auto Club Speedway.  Let's not forget about Chevrolet's chances of ending Toyota's streak here.  Kyle Larson is a one-time winner in Fontana, and Chase Elliott stands a good chance finding victory lane at this facility for the first time.  Each of these drivers has the ability to put the collective field under their boots this weekend, and usher Chevrolet back into victory lane at this two-mile oval.  We'll outline the major players, new contenders and a few sleepers you need this weekend to dominate in your fantasy racing leagues at Auto Club Speedway.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Busch – The reigning Cup Series champion is a four-time winner at the Auto Club Speedway, so we have to give the veteran driver his due respect at the Fontana oval.  He's won three of those victories since the 2013 season, including this event one year ago.  Busch carries a fat 48-percent career Top-5 rate at this facility into this weekend.  Each time we visit here the No. 18 Toyota is battling at the front for most of the race.  Busch comes to Fontana looking to rebound from his subpar Las Vegas outing, and motivation to succeed should be at a fever pitch.  In this race one year ago, the Joe Gibbs Racing star led 134 laps and dominated in that installment of the Auto Club 400.  Busch may scratch the win column again this weekend in this 400-mile battle.

Joey Logano – Few drivers have been more consistent and reliable on the two-mile ovals the last three years than Logano.  He has one victory, five Top-5, seven Top-10 finishes and has collected the fourth-most points at Fontana and Michigan with 333.  The No. 22 Ford team is off to a good start this season, and is coming off the statement victory at Las Vegas this past weekend.  Auto Club Speedway should present Logano with an excellent opportunity to keep the momentum rolling.  The Penske Racing star finished runner-up to Kyle Busch in this event one year ago, and he rides a four-race Fontana Top-5 streak into this weekend's action.  Logano's consistency and stellar 8.7 average finish on these style ovals the last three years is reason enough to deploy him in fantasy racing lineups this Sunday afternoon.

Martin Truex Jr. – The 2018 Auto Club Speedway winner checks in on our contenders list this week.  In this race two seasons ago, Truex piloted his former Furniture Row Racing Toyota to a dominant performance in the Auto Club 400.  He led 125 of the 200 laps from the pole and marched away with his first-ever Fontana victory.  Truex's numbers at this two-mile oval have been improving in recent seasons, so that victory was a great reward for a lot of hard work.  With well over 200 laps led in his last four visits to Auto Club Speedway, one victory in hand and two Top-5 finishes, the No. 19 Toyota team is a clear favorite heading back Southern California this week. 

Kevin Harvick – The one-time Fontana winner has been razor sharp on the two-mile ovals the last two seasons.  Harvick has revived some of his earlier-career success at Michigan and Fontana in 2018-19.  He rides a five-race Top-10 streak between these two tracks into Sunday's 400-mile battle.  During that span Harvick has two victories and one runner-up finish.  Granted, most of the success has come at the sister oval in Michigan, he still checked in with a strong fourth-place effort in this event one year ago.  The No. 4 Ford Mustang showed unmatched short-run speed last weekend at Las Vegas.  Hopefully crew chief Rodney Childers has the long-run speed also dialed-in for this lengthy battle at Auto Club Speedway.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Kyle Larson – The Chip Ganassi Racing star has enjoyed a lot of success in his brief career at the Fontana oval.  Larson has one victory and two runner-up finishes in six starts at the California speedway.  He won this event three years ago in a dominating, 110-lap led performance.  The driver of the No. 42 Chevrolet impressed in his last outing at Michigan.  Larson finished third-place in last August's Consumers Energy 400 at MIS.  The young driver has enjoyed more success at the similar Michigan oval, where he's won three victories in the last four seasons.  With a career 50-percent Top-5 rate at Auto Club Speedway, this is clearly an oval that Larson likes and is a setup for him to exceed expectations.       

Brad Keselowski – The Penske Racing star's last three seasons of racing on these two-mile ovals have netted two runner-up finishes, four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes.  Those are all top tier marks in the series, and work out to a miniscule 8.3 average finish, third-best in the Cup Series over the span.  The lack of a victory is a bit concerning, but the driver of the No. 2 Ford has been very close to breaking through at both Michigan and Fontana the last three seasons.  Keselowski is a one-time Fontana winner (2015) and he rides a five-race Top-10 streak at this oval into Sunday's action.  Keselowski is not a driver to be overlooked in the Auto Club 400.

Ryan Blaney – Coming off the strong performances at Daytona and Las Vegas, we like Blaney to carry that momentum into Auto Club Speedway.  The young Penske Racing driver has just four-career starts at the two-mile oval, but three of those have been steady Top-10 finishes.  Blaney's ninth-, eighth- and fifth-place efforts have shown a steady improvement and progression the last three years.  We believe the talented driver of the No. 12 Ford is poised for another career-best Fontana performance this Sunday afternoon.  His last two seasons of racing on the two-mile ovals have netted two Top-5, five Top-10 finishes and an average finish of 9.8 across the span.  He'll once again be a top performer at the Southern California speedway.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran is coming off a struggled performance and subpar finish at Las Vegas.  Hamlin had a poor-handling car, and started from the rear so the entire performance is pretty much a mulligan for the No. 11 Toyota team.  The two-mile oval in California has been a real puzzle for most of Hamlin's career, but he always brings fast cars to this track.  In this event one year ago the Joe Gibbs Racing star started sixth on the grid, led 8 laps and finished seventh-place after 400 miles of action at Auto Club Speedway.  That performance was more representative of his recent history at the two-mile speedway.  Hamlin now has three Top 10's in his last four starts at Fontana, and that has brought his career Top-10 rate up to a more respectable 39-percent.  The veteran driver's last start on a two-mile oval came at Michigan last August, and it netted a brilliant runner-up finish for Joe Gibbs Racing.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Fontana & solid upside

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports youngster was hit with some bad luck this past week at Las Vegas.  A broken tire valve late in the race basically negated his fast car, and Elliott was saddled with a 26th-place finish in a potential race-winning car.  He'll look to rebound this week at a much friendlier oval for the No. 9 team.  Elliott has torn up these two-mile ovals the last three seasons.  With six Top 10's in his last nine starts between Fontana and Michigan, he ranks among the most consistent drivers in the series on these huge ovals.  Good track position will be lessened in importance this week with the multiple grooves that drivers can race in at Fontana.  We believe Elliott will take full advantage and peddle to his first Top-10 finish of the young season.

Jimmie Johnson – The seven-time champion gave us a glimmer of hope last weekend with a hard-fought Top-5 finish at Las Vegas.  It seems that new crew chief Cliff Daniels is willing to take some risks and help Johnson get the best finishes possible.  This week we visit an oval that has held a tremendous amount of success for Johnson over the years.  Auto Club Speedway has yielded six victories, the most recent in 2016 and 17 Top-10 finishes, which works out to a dazzling 68-percent in 25 starts.  The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet has a good recent record at this facility despite being down overall the last couple seasons.  Three of Johnson's last five starts at the two-mile oval have yielded Top-10 finishes.  He should be up to the task to impress again in the Auto Club 400.

Alex Bowman – The driver of the No. 88 Chevrolet had a good car, but not the best luck at Vegas last Sunday.  Bowman still peddled to a respectable 13th-place finish in the Pennzoil 400.  He'll look to score his first Top 10 of the season in Sunday's Auto Club 400.  Bowman scored a pair of 10th-place finishes last summer in the two Michigan races, so he's been improving in this style of racing.  His last two Fontana starts have been 13th- and 21st-place finishes.  We believe the young driver will show what he's learned at Fontana in this visit.  We should see Bowman posted not only a career-best qualifying mark, but also a career-best finishing mark at Auto Club Speedway.       

Kurt Busch – Busch has started the season a bit slow.  Bad luck the last two weeks has been mostly to blame.  He should rebound well on our first two-mile oval of the season.  The Chip Ganassi Racing veteran comes to a track where he's enjoyed a lot of success over the years.  Busch has one victory and 13 Top-10 finishes (50-percent) over his 20-season career of NASCAR Cup Series racing at Fontana.  Last season's start at Fontana was an impressive sixth-place finish using the new aerodynamic package.  When we look at the Busch's career body of work at Fontana and Michigan we have to give him his due respect this Sunday afternoon.  The No. 1 Chevrolet team should be a steady fantasy play in this 400-mile contest.        

Clint Bowyer – The driver of the No. 14 Ford hustled to a 12th-place finish at Las Vegas Motor Speedway this past weekend.  Bowyer will hope to improve on that mark as the series visits Auto Club Speedway this Sunday afternoon.  The good news is that Bowyer won on a two-mile oval two seasons ago.  The SHR veteran won the first of two Michigan races in 2018.  He'll look to rekindle that success Sunday in the Auto Club 400.  His Fontana resume has been pretty decent over the years with eight Top 10's in 19-career starts (42-percent).  Bowyer is a bit better at the Michigan oval, but really comparable at both.  This should be an upside weekend for this driver and team. 

Austin Dillon – The two-mile ovals have been pretty good tracks for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet the last three seasons.  Dillon won the pole position at Fontana last season, and he's nabbed four Top 10's in the nine events between Michigan and Auto Club Speedway.  His average finish stands at a respectable 13.6 across the span.  Dillon's last start on a two-mile oval yielded a respectable 13th-place finish at MIS last summer.  The Richard Childress Racing driver earned a solid 10th-place finish in this Auto Club 400 one year ago.  Dillon looked very happy to have crew chief, Justin Alexander, back at the top of the war wagon last week at Vegas, earning a Top-5 finish in the Pennzoil 400.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Erik Jones – Jones is a "check status" driver this week at Fontana.  We've given him a temporary downgrade to the slow down list as a result.  After a slow start to the season, he's looking for answers coming to Auto Club Speedway.  Two-mile oval racing hasn't exactly been his best tracks during his brief Cup Series career.  Jones has labored to just two Top 10's in nine starts between Fontana and Michigan.  That 22-percent rate is reason for pause this week.  The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is looking for a rebound effort at one of his tougher ovals.  This is a good weekend to give Jones a pass in weekly lineup leagues, and check back in with the No. 20 team when we head to the friendlier short tracks of Bristol and Martinsville in the coming weeks.  

Daniel Suarez – The young driver's start with his new Gaunt Brothers Racing team is not off to the best start in 2020.  With one DNQ at Daytona and a 30th-place finish this past weekend at Las Vegas, the No. 96 team is deep in the hole coming to California.  His noticeable lack of speed this past week at Las Vegas is a bit concerning, and his Toyota's mechanical issue early in that race are big warning signs of a problem.  Despite his decent record at two-mile oval racing, we have to recommend benching Suarez this weekend and for the near future.  It would seem that the odds are stacked against Suarez this weekend.  It could be another tough week of racing for the young driver.    

Christopher Bell – The rookie driver of the Leavine Family Racing Toyota didn't do as well in his first intermediate oval start as we would have expected last week at Las Vegas.  In fact, Bell spun and found the wall at the Nevada oval isn't very forgiving.  He would finish 10 laps down to the leaders and in 33rd-place.  The No. 95 team will look to hit the reset button this week at Fontana.  This will be Bell's first career Cup Series start on a two-mile oval.  He's been a hit-or-miss driver on the Michigan and Fontana ovals during his Xfinity Series career.  With this young driver and team struggling out of the gates in 2020, and so many unknowns as it relates to Bell's potential performance at Auto Club Speedway, it's best to stand clear of any fantasy racing expectations this weekend.

Aric Almirola – We hate to pick on Almirola this week, but his Fontana racing resume is not the best.  The Stewart Haas Racing driver has 12-career starts at the California speedway and just one Top-10 finishes in those starts.  The Top-10 rate of a lowly 8-percent and 24.4 average finish don't inspire thoughts of success this Sunday.  Almirola cracked the Top 10 here last season, but it was a tail-end of the Top 10 effort with ninth-place.  It looks like the driver of the No. 10 Ford will be battling with many drivers at the back end of the Top 10 this Sunday afternoon at Auto Club Speedway, and that's not a good reason for fantasy racing deployment in weekly lineup leagues.  His 17th- and 33rd-place finishes at the similar oval in Michigan last year don't bode well either.