This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.
THE MEMORIAL TOURNAMENT
Purse: $12M
Winner's Share: $2.1M
FedEx Cup Points: 550 to the winner
Location: Dublin, Ohio
Course: Muirfield Village Golf Club
Yardage: 7,533
Par: 72
2021 champion: Patrick Cantlay
Tournament Preview
Patrick Cantlay won the Memorial last year for the second time in three years in an exciting playoff finish over Collin Morikawa. Of course, that was because runaway 54-hole leader Jon Rahm agonizingly had to withdraw after testing positive for COVID-19. It was a surreal detour for Rahm, who was speeding toward the No. 1 ranking in the world and was blitzing an elite field by six strokes with only 18 holes to play. He would assume the top spot in the world rankings just two weeks later by winning the U.S. Open.
This year, Rahm, Cantlay and Morikawa are all back as part of a stacked field in what will be the final Open tuneup for many of the top golfers. Seven of the top-10 in the world are on hand, with Jordan Spieth, Rory McIlroy, Cameron Smith and Viktor Hovland joining the other three. There are nine more top-25s and 16 more top-50s in the 120-man field. Some of the bold-face names include Will Zalatoris, Xander Schauffele, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Fitzpatrick, Mito Pereira and, trying once again to return from wrist surgery, Bryson DeChambeau. Likewise, Harris English will make his first start since January and hip surgery.
Many of these top players come back to Dublin year after year, in part to prep for the Open and in part to pay homage to tournament host Jack Nicklaus, who is now 82 years old. But this will be just the second year since an enormous makeover/renovation/overhaul.
According to a release describing the changes, "Most holes had the green complexes 100% recontoured and rebuilt with significant bunker modifications. Only greens on holes 12, 13, 14 and 17 resemble the old greens." That in itself is enormous as 14 greens will be completely unfamiliar to the golfers. Let's move on. "On holes 1, 15, & 17 the fairway bunker complexes were strategically repositioned. ... Hole #15 was rebuilt in entirety from tee to green with new fairway bunkers and extensive grade changes to the second and third shot landing zones."
The official Golf Course Superintendents sheet offers a succinct summary: The renovation "included rebuilding of all 18 greens, relocation of several greens, contour changes on greens, rebuilding bunkers, leveling and seeding tees, relocating several tees, and renovating and seeding fairways."
Oh, and it became nearly 100 yards longer.
We don't want to say this is a new golf course because it isn't. But ... whoa!
So what happened last year? Well, Rahm was running away at 18-under with rounds of 69-65-64 before we witnessed the bizarre development just as he walked off the 18th green on Saturday. He was six clear of Cantlay and Morikawa and, since Rahm isn't Greg Norman and Nick Faldo was no closer than the 18th tower, that lead seemed pretty safe. With Rahm gone, Cantlay and Morikawa both shot 1-under 71s on Sunday to get to the playoff at 13-under.
Who knows what Rahm's winning score would've been as he tried to defend his title. In 2020, Rahm he won at 9-under, with Cantlay at 19-under in 2019 and DeChambeau at 15-under in 2018. We should also mention that there were two tournaments at Muirfield Village in 2020 thanks to the pandemic, on consecutive weeks, with Morikawa winning the one-time Workday Charity Classic at 19-under in a playoff over Justin Thomas the week before the Memorial. It was the same course, pre-renovation, but the setup was far easier for the Workday.
Much has changed since then, but it's still the same course in many ways -- the same Jack Nicklaus golf course. As we saw last year, it will still play similarly in that the same skill-set will be needed to succeed.
In some ways, Muirfield Village was and still is the perfect golf course. Of course, it's not St. Andrews, it's not Augusta, it's not Pebble Beach. We don't mean it like that. As Nicklaus' signature design, it demands a golfer use all facets of his game, all the clubs in his bag. While Nicklaus always put a premium on driving in his playing days, everything about Muirfield gets harder later. The holes get harder closer to the green. The back nine is harder than the front, with the hardest holes generally among Nos. 16, 17 and 18. The closing three-hole stretch doesn't have a cutesy nickname like so many courses, but the 200-yard 16th, 485-yard 17th and the 480-yard 18th all played over par last year and 18 was the hardest hole on the course. The bentgrass greens are small, averaging 5,000 square feet. Complicating matters is water on 13 holes. The easiest path to victory is to score on the par-5s, none of which reaches 590. The par-3s have always been brutal, with three of them 200+ yards. Seven of the 10 par-4s exceed 450 yards.
Last year, Muirfield was the 10th hardest track on Tour. In 2020 for the Memorial, it was the second hardest; for the Workday, it was still no pushover, ranked 12th hardest.
With an invitational gathering of only 120 golfers like last week at the Charles Schwab, more than half the field will make the cut. A golfer will have to beat only 50 or so guys to make the weekend, unlike maybe 90 in a field of 156. Further, Nicklaus issues berths to some lesser guys: top amateurs, money leaders from international tours and all members of the most recent Ryder and Presidents Cup teams -- no matter what their games look like today. Plus some invites to former Memorial champs. More on lineup construction: If deciding between two similar guys, we wouldn't find fault with picking the guy starting at No. 1 on Thursday as opposed to No. 10. The front is no cakewalk beginning with a 490 par-4, but it's easier than the back. Both par-5s on the front are easier than the pair on the back. Getting off to a good start can boost momentum, just like getting off to a bad start can snowball the wrong way.
Weather-wise, after a sweltering hot start to the week for practice rounds, temperatures should be comfortably in the 70s all four days. Showers are forecast for Thursday morning, so that's something to keep an eye on before the lock. Otherwise, things will be dry with not too much wind.
Fun Memorial factoid: As we like to note every year, the winner of the inaugural tournament back in 1976 was none other than the lovable Roger Maltbie, for the third of his five PGA Tour wins, in a playoff over Hale Irwin.
Key Stats to Winning at Muirfield Village
The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.
• Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green/Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling
• Strokes Gained: Putting
• Par-3 Efficiency 200-225 yards, Par-4 Efficiency 450-500 yards, Par-5 Efficiency 550-600 yards
Past Champions
2021 - Patrick Cantlay
2020 - Jon Rahm
2019 - Patrick Cantlay
2018 - Bryson DeChambeau
2017 - Jason Dufner
2016 - William McGirt
2015 - David Lingmerth
2014 - Hideki Matsuyama
2013 - Matt Kuchar
2012 - Tiger Woods
Champion's Profile
Here's what know statistically after last year's major overhaul: the importance of Strokes Gained: Approach and SG: Tee-to-Green remain. The top-8 on the leaderboard ranked 3rd, 4th, 5th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 23rd and 25th in Approach. In T2G, they ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 9th, 12th and 25th. The two 25s were both Max Homa, and he countered that by ranking third in the field in putting, best among those top-8 finishers. Rahm's rankings were stricken, but he had gained an incredible 21 shots total on the field through three rounds, about 15 1/2 of them from tee to green, including nine on approach alone, and about 5 1/2 putting. His driving accuracy was an absurd 80 percent in what would've been one of the most dominating performances on Tour in years -- had it been completed. As for the official winner and runner-up last year, Cantlay led the field in greens in regulation and SG: Tee-to-Green. Morikawa wasn't quite as good there, but he was great on the greens, ranking six in SG: Putting. Whoever wins this tournament likely will be have be marginal at worst in every discipline, and proficient in most. For years, mostly 30-somethings took home the title. But with Cantlay, Rahm, Cantlay and DeChambeau, the tide has turned. Golfodds.com put the over/under on the winning score at 274.5, which is 13.5 under par.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap
Tier 1 Values
Rory McIlroy - $10,900 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: +1100)
We're bypassing Jon Rahm ($11,100)), which might be foolish, or worse, but his short game has been so off this year and you just can't turn it on when you want -- or he would've done so by now. Instead, we start with McIlroy, who has been very good but not great at Muirfield Village through the years, with a best of fourth in 2016, plus three other top-10s and two- top-20s, including T18 last year. He's been great of late -- runner-up at the Masters, fifth at the Wells Fargo and eighth at the PGA Championship. He's ranked third on Tour in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green.
Patrick Cantlay - $10,700 (+1000)
Cantlay certainly has not been at his best in 2022, but he does have five top-10s in 10 starts, including two runners-up. In other words, he's been close. He won here in 2019 and, while last year's Memorial win comes with a big asterisk, he still was tied for second at the time of Rahm's WD.
Xander Schauffele - $10,200 (+1600)
Schauffele has been showing signs lately -- fifth at the Byron Nelson, 13th at the PGA -- of returning to form. He's finished in the top-15 in his past four starts here -- including the 2020 Workday -- but in none of them has he cracked the top-10. He's ranked 10th on Tour in greens in regulation, 16th in SG: Approach and ninth in SG: Tee-to-Green. If he can just add a few made putts, that's a recipe for a win.
Jordan Spieth - $9,700 (+2200)
Interestingly enough, Spieth is ranked eighth on Tour in par-5 efficiency 550-600 yards. He's definitely morphing into a different player, but still successful. He was T7 last week at Colonial, which surely was a disappointment for his backers, but hey, it's still seventh. And of course he has a win and a runner-up in the past six weeks. Spieth's best at Muirfield was third in 2015 and he was top-20 each of the past two years.
Tier 2 Values
Will Zalatoris - $9,400 (+3000)
Zalatoris missed the cut last week at Colonial, which was not only somewhat expected but perhaps even beneficial to him in the long run. He does his best at longer, harder tracks, and Muirfield surely qualifies there. He's ranked 11th on Tour in par-5 550-600. Zalatoris has played the Memorial once before, but that was a lifetime ago in 2018 when he missed cut.
Shane Lowry - $9,000 (+2000)
Lowry had a "bad" week at the PGA -- a mere top-25 for him. The way he's been playing, a list of stats really isn't needed but here goes: eighth on Tour in SG: Approach, second in par-4 450-500 and T16 in par-5 550-600. After some lean years at the Memorial, Lowry tied for sixth last year.
Cameron Young - $8,800 (+4000)
You just can't knock this guy off the podium: 3-2-3 in his past three starts. He hasn't played Muirfield before, but you could say that about most of the courses Young is excelling on this year. He's ranked sixth on Tour in par-4 450-500, 22nd in par-3 200-225 and 51st in par-5 550-600.
Max Homa - $8,700 (+4000)
Like Zalatoris, Homa does his best work on longer, harder tracks -- he was sixth here last year and has a recent win at TPC Potomac. He leads the Tour in par-5 550-600. Homa has made the cut in both majors this year, which is an important development in his growth. He eked into the top-25 last week at Colonial.
Tier 3 Values
Mito Pereira - $8,000 (+4500)
Pereira admirably notched a top-10 last week after his soul-crushing finish at the PGA. He was able to keep it together both mentally and physically. He is playing so well of late, but we're at least partly concerned that the tiredness that did not kick in at Colonial could develop this week. That said, everything about his game should fit in his Muirfield debut: fourth in GIR, ninth in SG: Approach, 16th in SG: Tee-to-Green, 11th in par-4 450-500.
Adam Scott - $7,700 (+5000)
This is that sweet spot on the DK board where guys in this range will fit into any lineup. Scott has played the Memorial 13 times. He has four top-10s and missed only one cut. He was 16th a year ago and runner-up in 2019. Scott has performed well in the par-4 and par-5 efficiency stats (47th and 26th, respectively).
Alex Noren - $7,500 (+8000)
Noren was nearing a return to the top-50 in the world when he got caught on the wrong side of the draw and missed the cut at the PGA. As it is, he's ranked 56th. He's played the Memorial only three times, but that's been the past three years with a best of T13 in 2021. Noren is ranked eighth in par-4 450-500, 16th in par-5 550-600 and 27th in par-3 200-225. That is really good across the board.
C.T. Pan - $7,200 (+15000)
Pan likely won't get you a high finish, but he's made eight of his past nine cuts this year. He's made all three at the Memorial, plus a fourth at the 2020 Workday. None of his stats really stands out -- other than the fact that he's better than average in every strokes-gained category. Pan is ranked fifth on Tour in par-3 200-225. His best finish this year was ninth at Riviera, which has some similarities to Augusta, which has some similarities to Muirfield Village.
Long-Shot Values
Stewart Cink - $7,000 (+18000)
This will be Cink's 25th start at the Memorial and he's missed the cut only twice. He had a very good PGA Championship in which he was paired on Sunday with Justin Thomas but wound up tied for 23rd. The tournament before that he had a top-10 at the Wells Fargo. Cink is ranked 50th on Tour in greens in regulation, and he's going to need every bit of that because his scrambling has been abysmal. Candidly, we like the next three guys better than Cink.
Pat Perez - $6,600 (+18000)
Perez did not play the Memorial last year, but he has made 12 straight cuts there dating way back to 2007. Further, he's made eight of his past nine on Tour this year and coming off a tie for 12th last week at Colonial. Perez is ranked top-50 on Tour in greens in regulation, plus SG: Around-the-Green, Putting and Total. It appears he's playing better than his results would indicate.
Brendan Steele - $6,600 (+15000)
Steele has made only five of 10 cuts in 2022 -- but they've been his last five, and he's been playing great, coming off a top-10 at the PGA. He also was 13th at THE PLAYERS. Steele has made his past six Memorial cuts, including a T13 two years ago. He's ranked eighth in SG: Off-the-Tee and 40th in Tee-to-Green, plus 46th in GIR. Be mindful that his putting will likely prevent a high finish.
Lucas Glover - $6,500 (+20000)
Like Steele, Glover has made a bunch of memorial cuts in a row -- eight -- but his putting will likely prevent a high finish. He's ranked 14th on Tour in GIR, 27th in SG: Approach and again, very similar to Steele, 45th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Glover has made 11 of 14 cuts in 2022, including both majors.
