DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: PGA Championship Picks

DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: PGA Championship Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

PGA CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $10.0M
Winner's Share: $1.8M
FedEx Cup Points: 600 to the Winner
Location: Sheboygan, Wisc.
Course: Whistling Straits (Straits Course)
Yardage: 7,514
Par: 72
Defending Champion: Rory McIlroy


Tournament Preview

The 97th PGA Championship heads to Whistling Straits for its third hosting since 2004 for "Glory's Last Shot." Much like the previous two majors at Chambers Bay and St. Andrews, the par-72 Straits course is a links-style layout protected by myriad bunkers and a large body of water vulnerable to wind. Storylines for the stacked 156-player field include Rory McIlroy returning from an ankle injury for the first time since the U.S. Open, while Jordan Spieth seeks his third major this season. There are also 20 club professionals who will tee it up as is customary of the PGA Championship. If weather isn't a major factor, expect the winner to hover around 10 under par for the week.

Key Stats to winning at Whistling Straits

Driving Distance
GIR Percentage
Par-5 Scoring Average

Last Decade of Champions

2014 - Rory McIlroy
2013 - Jason Dufner
2012 - Rory McIlroy
2011 - Keegan Bradley
2010 - Martin Kaymer (Whistling Straits)
2009 - Y.E. Yang
2008 - Padraig Harrington
2007 - Tiger Woods
2006 - Tiger Woods
2005 - Phil Mickelson
2004 - Vijay Singh (Whistling Straits)

Champion's Profile

Looking back at 2004 and 2010, the previous two major championships at this venue, it pretty clear bombers have a distinct advantage on the long layout, especially on the final four holes. Wind plays a factor on the shores of Lake Michigan, making GIR percentage important: not only for birdie looks, but also for avoiding penal fescue and bunkers scattered around the property. Winning will likely come down to taking advantage on the par-5s and managing to elude or escape trouble that looms throughout the course.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS
(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

Jordan Spieth - $12,500 (Odds: 11/2)
Rory McIlroy - $11,700 (9/1)
Dustin Johnson - $11,200 (13/1)
Jason Day - $10,800 (15/1)

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

Bubba Watson - $9,900 (Odds: 15/1)
Rickie Fowler - $9,800 20/1)
Henrik Stenson - $9,700 28/1)
Louis Oosthuizen - $9,100 33/1)

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

Jim Furyk - $8,100 Odds: 35/1)
Hideki Matsuyama - $8,000 35/1)
Brooks Koepka - $7,800 (40/1)
Patrick Reed - $7,600 55/1)
Shane Lowry - $7,500 55/1)
Paul Casey - $7,400 65/1)
Keegan Bradley - $7,400 65/1)

DraftKings Long-Shot Values

Branden Grace - $7,300 (Odds: 85/1)
Danny Willett - $7,200 90/1)
Danny Lee - $7,100 90/1)
Francesco Molinari - $6,800 100/1)
Robert Streb - $6,800 90/1)
Scott Piercy - $6,300 125/1)

MY PICKS THIS WEEK

Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)

Dustin Johnson - $11,200
Bubba Watson - $9,900
Zach Johnson - $8,400
Paul Casey - $7,400
Danny Willett - $7,200
David Toms - $5,900

The safe lineup targets multiple high-caliber players with length and/or solid records from past majors at Whistling Straits. Dustin Johnson is out for redemption after his 2010 bunker debacle and three-putt tragedy at this year's U.S. Open. Bubba Watson lost a playoff in 2010 and has a win and two runner-ups since July. Zach Johnson comes off a huge confidence boost at St. Andrews and though not long off the tee, is experienced in courses that require precision. Paul Casey enters in good form and is still seeking to cap off a revival season with a win. Danny Willett played great at St. Andrews last month and with a similar links style course will have a good shot to outplay his bargain salary. Finally, David Toms enters off a top-5 at the Barracuda Championship last week and has an incredible record of 11 straight cuts made at the PGA Championship, including T17 and T33 in starts at Whistling Straits.

Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup
($50K Salary Cap)

Jason Day $10,800
Bubba Watson $9,900
Brooks Koepka $7,800
Patrick Reed $7,600
Danny Lee $7,100
Francesco Molinari $6,800

The tournament lineup focuses on value while balancing the roster to respect but consciously limit bombers at this venue. Jason Day is riding huge confidence from his rebound win at the RBC Canadian after coming up just short at the Open a week earlier. Watson also enters in phenomenal form and has great history at Whistling Straits. Koepka seems to fit the mold of Bubba Watson with his length and ability to hit greens in regulation, while Patrick Reed brings a strong short game to the lineup. Danny Lee has been trending great since his breakthrough win at the Greenbrier and lastly, Francesco Molinari is a wildcard but can compete if he keeps it out of trouble by hitting fairways as he typically does.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Michael Riek plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: mriek25.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Riek
Michael is the 2016 FSWA Golf Writer of the Year winner. He is a former collegiate golfer with a passion for analytics and strategy.
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