DraftKings PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship Cash and GPP Strategy

This article is part of our DraftKings PGA DFS Picks series.

VALSPAR CHAMPIONSHIP

Purse: $8.7M 
Winner's Share: $1.566M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner 
Location: Palm Harbor, Fla. 
Course:  Innisbrook Resort and Golf Club (Copperhead) 
Yardage: 7,352
Par: 71
2024 champion: Peter Malnati

Tournament Preview

On the surface, the best news about the Valspar Championship is that there are enough highly ranked and big-name players in the field for golf fans to have substantial interest in this non-Signature Event, despite the tournament coming on the heels of one of the biggest stops of the year, THE PLAYERS Championship, won by one of the best golfers in the world, Rory McIlroy.

While that is all fantastic news for the PGA Tour, the best news from its perspective may have come three weeks ago, when it was announced that title sponsor Valspar had re-upped through 2030. Over the past few years, with the advent of LIV Golf and then Signature Events, the Tour has seen an exodus of some longstanding title sponsors, notably Honda, Wells Fargo and Farmers Insurance. The Valspar won't have a purse anywhere near $20 million, though it did get a slight boost this year to $8.7 million.

Just a week after the Valspar announcement came word that 3M was also re-upping through 2030. 3M has not been around nearly as long as Valspar, which came on board in 2014, but it was a significant 1-2 punch from the Tour, which seems to have turned the tide in the ongoing LIV negotiations/battles.

For golf fans, especially DFS players, they will focus more on the players than the business side. Xander Schauffele, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Tommy Fleetwood, Viktor Hovland, Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala and Will Zalatoris headline the maxed-out 156-man field in this, the finale of the four-event Florida Swing. It might be just enough, depending on the leaderboard, to give the Valspar a fighting chance against the first weekend of the NCAA tournament.

Others of note are three sponsor invites who are potential stars of tomorrow: Luke Clanton, the Florida State junior who recently gained his Tour card at the conclusion of the college season; Neal Shipley, the Ohio State alum who was low amateur at the Masters, is now on the Korn Ferry Tour and was a big hit in the recently released third season of Netflix's "Full Swing"; and Blades Brown, the 17-year-old without a college affiliation because he decided to turn pro right out of high school.

As we've seen throughout the four-event Florida Swing, all the courses have the potential to be brutes, Last year, Copperhead showed its teeth (fangs?) as the eighth-hardest course on Tour, with Peter Malnati winning at 12-under par, a year after Taylor Moore won at a mere 10-under.

After a couple of years in 2021-22 in which Burns won both times at 17-under, they grew the rough nearly an inch to 3.75 inches and minimized the width of the intermediate cut around the greens from 72 inches to 21, bringing the rough closer to the greens. That added an increased emphasis on scrambling and lowered scores.

Copperhead, the only course this tournament has ever known since arriving in 2000, is not your traditional Florida track. The 1971 Larry Packard design is extremely narrow and tree-lined with numerous dog legs and plenty of undulations and is situated on the west coast of the state by the Gulf of Mexico. It's also an oddity for a par-71 in that there are five par-3s and four par-5s. Other than on the par-5s, par is a good score on every hole. In fact, every par-3 and par-4 but one played over par last year. Long iron play, along with scrambling and putting inside 10 feet, rule the roost here. The greens are bermuda with poa overseed, moderate in size at an average of about 5,800 square feet and will run at a speedy 12 on the Stimpmeter. There are 74 bunkers and water on half the holes.

Not to be outdone by other courses with cute little nicknames for their hard holes, Copperhead features the famed Snake Pit, a three-hole sequence that is one of the toughest closing stretches in golf. It begins with what's usually the hardest hole on the course, the 475-yard 16th with water on the entire right side. It's followed by the long 215-yard 17th and the 445-yard 18th. They all play over par and, if the golfers aren't careful, way over par. There were 25 double bogeys or worse on 16 a year ago. The 200-yard 13th if often the second-hardest hole on the course, so we see how much harder the back is than the front, especially with par at 35 to the front's 36. The easiest hole is the 560-yard 1st, the shortest of the par-5s. So don't get too excited if your guy gets an opening birdie (but do be disappointed if he doesn't).

As for the weather, the wind is forecast to be at its strongest on Thursday and then at its second strongest Friday before lightening on the weekend. Temperatures will be in the 70s except for a cool Friday. There is no rain in the forecast.

Fun Innisbrook factoid: Courtesy of the 2021 GCSAA sheet, we learned that "Wildlife on course includes raccoons, bald eagles, coyotes, fox squirrel (unique at Innisbrook), alligators, turtles, snakes." Of course, snakes.

Key Stats to Winning at Innisbrook

The most important indicators every week are current form and course history. "Key Stats" follow in importance.

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee/Driving Accuracy
• Strokes Gained: Approach/Greens in Regulation/Approaches from 175-200 yards
• Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green/Scrambling 
• Strokes Gained: Putting/putting inside 10 feet
• Par-3 scoring, 200-225 yards
• Bogey Avoidance

Past Champions

2024 – Peter Malnati
2023 – Taylor Moore
2022 – Sam Burns
2021 – Sam Burns
2020 – No tournament
2019 – Paul Casey
2018 – Paul Casey
2017 – Adam Hadwin 
2016 - Charl Schwartzel 
2015 – Jordan Spieth

Champion's Profile

Malnati didn't hit it long off the tee (59th in driving distance) or straight (46th in fairways hit) yet somehow combined those to rank fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee. He also ranked fifth in greens in regulation, 21st in SG: Approach, 57th in Around-the-Green and third in Putting, making more than 350 feet of putts. When you add in that he played the par-5s in a mere 1-under, this was not the blueprint for success at Copperhead.

Two years ago, Moore played the par-5s in a collective 7-under, out of his 10-under winning total. He had only four bogeys and one double all week -- and all of those but one bogey came on the par-3s. That's Copperhead in a nutshell.

If ever there were a tournament where shorter hitters can prosper, this is it. Copperhead may technically be long at more than 7,300 yards for a par-71, but there are a bunch of dog legs to stifle distance, not to mention five par-3s. (Interestingly, the course considers its signature hole to be the 590-yard, double-dog-leg 14th, not one of the Snake Pit trio.)

Treat the two Burns years with their higher scores as aberrations and don't put strong emphasis on them (though Burns did finish solo sixth in 2023 before an MC last year).

We'll be looking at quality long iron players who are happy to play it safe. Casey and Hadwin were Exhibits 1 and 1A.

This has been one of the hardest tracks for greens in regulation, which brings scrambling into play. And more often than not, great putting has translated into success at Copperhead, especially from inside 10 feet.

The over/under on the winning score at golfodds.com is 269.5, which 14.5 under par.

DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS

Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap

$10,000 and up

Tommy Fleetwood - $10,300 (Winning odds at the DraftKings Sportsbook: (+1200)
Thomas and Schauffele are the top two on the DFS board, but over at the Sportsbook, it's Fleetwood who leads the way. The Englishman had another good week with a T14 at THE PLAYERS, giving him four top-25s in four starts, all Signature Events. He is second on Tour in SG: Approach and fourth in SG: Tee-to-Green. Fleetwood didn't play the Valspar last year but was T3 two years ago and T16 the year before that.

Sepp Straka - $10,000 (+2200) 
Straka ceded the top spot in the FedExCup Standings to McIlroy on Monday, but he had another excellent week at Sawgrass with a tie for 14th. He now has seven top-15s already in 2025. The Austrian is ranked top-10 in both SG: Approach and bogey avoidance and 11th in driving accuracy. Really, there is no weakness in his game right now. Don't let last year's Valspar missed cut dissuade you.

$9,000-$9,900

Corey Conners - $9,600 (+2500) 
Conners hasn't played here since 2021, but in both his prior visits he notched top-25s. Now, he's putting perhaps better than he ever has, up to No. 69 on Tour. The Canadian is coming off a tie for sixth at Sawgrass, which followed a solo third at Bay Hill.

Shane Lowry - $9,400 (+2500) 
One of the great Florida players, Lowry has finished top-20 in all three tournaments in the Sunshine State, including a T20 at THE PLAYERS. He last played the Valspar in 2022, when he tied for 12th. Lowry is ranked seventh on Tour in both SG: Approach and Tee-to-Green, and he should continue to thrive on a course where driving distance is not paramount.

Alex Smalley - $9,000 (+4000) 
This is a large number for Smalley, of course, but it is warranted. He is ranked seventh on Tour in bogey avoidance and 20th in putting from inside 10 feet. That goes a long way in explaining six top-25s in seven starts this season, including a T14 last week at Sawgrass. Smalley missed the Valspar cut two of the past three years, but he is on another level right now.

$8,000-$8,900

Lucas Glover - $8,800 (+4000) 
Glover is set to make his 20th Valspar start, which will tie Brian Gay for the most all-time. He's made 14 cuts, including six in a row, with a solo 11th finish last year. Glover is ranked fourth on Tour in driving accuracy, 25th in SG: Tee-to-Green and 70th in SG: Putting -- which for him is excellent. He's coming off his second T3 of the season last week at Sawgrass, and the other one also came in a Signature Event at Pebble Beach.

Taylor Moore - $8,600 (+4500) 
Moore won here two years ago and defended his title admirably with a tie for 12th. He's been playing pretty well in 2025, making seven straight cuts with two top-10s and another top-25. He tied for 33rd at THE PLAYERS. Moore doesn't have the best stats, though he is ranked top-25 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green. Regardless, somehow he is getting the job done.

$7,000-$7,900

Christiaan Bezuidenhout - $7,600 (+7500) 
Bezuidenhout is a good fit for Copperhead. And not just because he tied for ninth last year. He's ranked 15th on Tour in bogey avoidance and eighth in putting inside 10 feet. The South African is coming off a missed cut last week at Sawgrass, but it was just his second in eight starts. He was T19 the week before at Bay Hill.

Nicolai Hojgaard - $7,300 (+8000) 
Hojgaard carried a top-10 and a top-20 in his two previous starts into last week's PLAYERS, where he missed his first cut of the season. He is ranked top-20 in SG: Approach, Putting and the all-important SG: Total. We were surprised to see Hojgaard is ranked first on Tour in putting inside 10 feet and ninth in bogey avoidance. This will be his Valspar debut.

Sam Ryder - $7,100 (+12000)
Ryder finished 33rd here last year and 19th the year before. This is a good course fit for an accurate iron player who is short off the tee. But putting has been his forte this season -- he's ranked fourth in SG: Putting and 24th in putting inside 10 feet. Ryder is also ranked 12th in bogey avoidance. He has not missed a cut in seven starts, with his best result coming last week at Sawgrass with a T14.

$6,000-$6,900

Adam Schenk - $6,900 (+15000) 
Schenk's game so far in 2025 is more reflective of the way he played two years ago than last year. He has a top-10 and two top-25s. Two years ago, he was runner-up to Moore at the Valspar. Schenk is ranked 41st on Tour in SG: Total thanks to good numbers everywhere but around the green.

Brice Garnett - $6,600 (+25000) 
The 41-year-old Garnett is exempt through 2026 thanks to winning the 2024 Puerto Rico Open. But if the season ended today, he'd have his card based on his play -- ranked 92nd in the FedEx Cup standings. He's made six of seven cuts, with the only miss coming last week at Sawgrass. Garnett is ranked first on Tour in bogey avoidance and 12th in putting inside 10 feet -- no yips for this 40-somthing.

Henrik Norlander - $6,500 (+25000) 
Norlander has made the cut in two of his three trips to Copperhead. He's made only three of eight cuts this season, but he's shot only one round over 75 all season. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense for someone ranked fourth on Tour in perhaps the most important stat of all: SG: Approach. Garnett's game is not suited to making birdies. Rather, he's ranked 22nd in bogey avoidance, which could help him make the cut.

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