2023 Valspar Championship Betting: Picks, Odds, Predictions and Best Bets

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Updated on April 7, 2023 7:38AM EST

Valspar Championship Betting Preview

The Florida Swing comes to a close with this week's Valspar Championship at the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort in Palm Harbor.

Although four designated events took place over the past five weeks, there are still some notable names on hand, including tournament co-favorites Justin Thomas and Jordan Spieth, who both check in at 12-1. They are two of five players among the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking teeing it up.

Last year, Sam Burns, at 25-1, successfully defended his 2021 title by defeating Davis Riley with a birdie on the second playoff hole.

All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 6:00 PM ET Tuesday.

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Course Characteristics

Par 72, 7,340 yards -- five par-3s and four par-5s

Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Winners Since 2017

SG: Off-the-Tee: 47.0
SG: Approach: 6.8
SG: Around-the-Green: 18.8
SG: Putting: 15.6
SG: Tee-to-Green: 4.2
Driving Distance: 29.4
Driving Accuracy: 54.0

Before Burns won at 17-under-par the past two years, the winning score topped 10-under just once over the previous seven editions. The course is expected to play more challenging this year, with the rough being lengthened and brought closer to the greens. Of course, Copperhead is best known for "The Snake Pit," one of the most difficult closing three-hole stretches on Tour which consists of a long par-3 sandwiched between a pair of tough par-4s. Iron play has been a key statistic here, with the winner ranking top-15 in Strokes Gained: Approach seven straight times. This figures to be key again, especially on the five par-3s, which all play at least 195 yards. Positional play off the tee is important as well, as the fairways are narrow and tree-lined.

Copperhead Conquerors

These players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average in this event since 2017.

NeSmith has quickly shown an affinity for Copperhead, posting a T21 in 2021 and a T3 last year -- a tournament in which he he led the field in SG: Approach. Something will have to give between his course history and recent form, though, as NeSmith has made just 2-of-7 cuts this year with a best finish of T39. Meanwhile, one of the favorites on this list is Hadwin, the eighth betting choice at 25-1. The 2017 champion has notched a couple of top-15s here since. He's had a consistent start to his season, notching five top-20s in 11 starts, and is gaining shots in every Strokes Gained category. That will make him a popular pick in one-and-done contests, and deservedly so.

Approach the Bench

The following golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes on approach over their last 20 rounds.

Woodland leads this list in large part by gaining over 10 strokes on approach en route to a top-10 finish at Riviera last month -- his second top-10 of the season. His results could be better if there wasn't such a large disparity between his ball striking and short game -- Woodland is gaining 1.28 strokes per round off the tee and on approach but losing 1.34 around the green and on it. He's a respectable 40-1 to win this week. Right alongside him at 35-1 is Clark, who is an impressive 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green and 49th in SG: Approach. He's developed into a much more consistent player, having made 10 cuts in a row, although his best finishes were a pair of T10s. Clark's improved iron play and elite driving distance signals that his first career PGA Tour victory might not be far off.

Valspar Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Jordan Spieth (12-1)

Coming off an outright win with Scheffler, I'll start this week with Spieth, who will be making his first appearance here since 2018. A prior champion of this event with four top-20s in five starts here, he clearly has a liking for the course. Spieth has fared well with his irons of late, which helped him post a pair of top-10s over his last four starts.

Matt Fitzpatrick (14-1)

Fitzpatrick played well here a year ago, shooting four rounds of 68 or better en route to a share of fifth place. He has dealt with a neck injury this year, but that seems to be behind him, as he posted a top-15 at Bay Hill two weeks ago despite losing strokes with his usually-solid short game.

Ben Griffin (45-1)

Griffin was in contention at THE PLAYERS before ultimately fading over the weekend, and he's been trending toward a victory for some time now amid what could be a "Rookie of the Year" season. He will be making his debut at Innisbrook, but considering how well he has played in Florida, I see little reason to think the momentum ends now.

Valspar Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers

Jhonattan Vegas (13-2)

Vegas continues to dominate with his driver, gaining strokes off the tee in 14 straight tournaments and ranking fifth in that category this season. With three top-25s over his last five starts and two made cuts in a row at Copperhead, I like the value on a top-10.

Garrick Higgo (8-1)

After failing to record a top-15 finish during the previous campaign, Higgo has posted two such results this season. He is playing much better overall, gaining strokes off the tee and on approach. He is a high-ceiling player with a low floor, but I expect a spike week.

Michael Kim (12-1)

I am digging a little deep with my long shot to pick up a top-10, as the field thins out pretty quickly. I'll look toward Kim, though, who has recently found some form with a T11 finish at Pebble Beach -- where he finished third in SG: Approach -- and a solo fifth at the Puerto Rico Open -- albeit an alternate event -- in his last start.

Valspar Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Justin Suh (-110) over Denny McCarthy

After a slow start to the season, Suh has really upped his level over the last several weeks. He has made 11 cuts in a row, which makes him a great option for this format. Suh hasn't played here before but has posted three straight top-25s during the Florida Swing. McCarthy has the edge with his short game, but Suh is better everywhere else -- especially on the par-3s, which will be crucial at Copperhead.

Eric Cole (+100) over Joel Dahmen

In a matchup featuring two players trending in opposite directions, I'll go with the much hotter Cole at plus money. His three best PGA Tour results came over his last four tournaments, while Dahmen's best finish this year is T41. Dahmen is too good not to turn it around at some point, but he's never had much success in Florida.

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