This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview
The PGA Tour moves to the Midwest for the fifth installment of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club.
Even as a non-designated event, the field is better than usual, as players look to secure a top-70 spot in the FedExCup Standings and qualify for the playoffs. Tony Finau, Collin Morikawa and Rickie Fowler are tied for the lowest odds on the board at 14-1, and they headline a field that consists of seven players among the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking.
Last year, Finau defeated Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young and Taylor Pendrith by five strokes for his fourth Tour victory.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Tuesday.
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Course Characteristics
Par 72, 7,370 yards
Average Strokes Gained Rankings: Rocket Mortgage Classic Winners Over Last Four Years
- SG: Off-the-Tee: 16.3
- SG: Approach: 18.0
- SG: Around-the-Green: 12.8
- SG: Putting: 9.8
- SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.0
- Driving Distance: 24.0
- Driving Accuracy: 25.3
Detroit GC has yielded its share of birdies since this event was introduced in 2019, with the average winning score being 23-under-par. The fairways are moderately wide and tree-lined on both sides, so players will primarily use driver and have a lot of wedge approaches into the greens. The course doesn't offer much defense in terms of length, with four par-4s playing under 400 yards and only one over 465 yards. Plus, there is minimal water and no true hazards that punish poor shots. Like most courses that set up for a birdie-fest, there's a much higher emphasis on putting. All in all, I'm looking to target longer hitters, birdie-makers, good putters and those who approach it well from inside 125 yards.
Dominant in Detroit
The following players have the lowest scoring average at Detroit Golf Club since 2019.
- Tony Finau: 67.6
- Matt Wallace: 68.3
- Troy Merritt: 68.6
- J.J. Spaun: 68.6
- Nate Lashley: 68.8
The defending champion tops the list following his easy win a year ago, though his only other appearance here resulted in a T53 in 2020. Since winning the Mexico Open at the end of April, Finau has gone cold, failing to record a top-20 result in five starts. His struggles have mainly been on the greens, as he has lost strokes putting in five consecutive tournaments. If he can find his form in that area, look out. Another player with a good track record here is Spaun, who is listed at 50-1 odds. Spaun has made all four of his cuts here and posted a T8 here last year -- his best finish in this event. Something will have to give between his course history and his current form, as his last top-25 came at the Valero Texas Open nearly three months ago. He should benefit from this not being an elevated event.
Getting it Done from Tee to Green
These five golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes from tee to green over their last 20 rounds.
- Rickie Fowler: 1.79
- Hideki Matsuyama: 1.71
- Byeong Hun An: 1.39
- Tony Finau: 1.33
- Alex Smalley: 1.28
It doesn't seem much can phase Fowler at this point, as he showed no letdown from his disappointing final round at the U.S. Open, firing a third-round 60 at the Travelers Championship en route to his eighth top-15 finish in nine starts. The main difference for Fowler this season has been his iron play. After finishing 150th in Strokes Gained: Approach last season, he's seventh during the current campaign. An -- who checks in at 40-1 to win -- is also trending in the right direction, having improved his world ranking from outside the top 300 to begin the season to 129th currently. He's 23rd in SG: Tee-to-Green on the season and is in good form, notching three top-25s over his last four starts. This will be his third start at Detroit GC, and his best finish was a tie for 13th in 2019.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets: Outright Picks
Stephan Jaeger (45-1)
Jaeger's best results tend to come on easier tracks, which is a big reason why he was so dominant on the Korn Ferry Tour. He notched a fifth-place finish here last year, and he enters amid a string of seven straight cuts, a span over which he tallied three top-25s. Jaeger ranks a solid 31st in SG: Tee-to-Green this season.
Austin Eckroat (45-1)
The 24-year-old Tour rookie has been playing excellent golf, finishing runner-up at the AT&T Byron Nelson -- another birdie-fest -- and posting his first top-10 in a major at the U.S. Open. Eckroat looks to be on the verge of winning in his first PGA Tour event, and that could occur in Detroit.
Alex Smalley (50-1)
Smalley is coming off his best finish of the year and placed top-10 in both SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach at the Travelers Championship. He struggled for a stretch this spring but has rebounded with four top-25s over his last six starts. Plus, he has been in excellent form from tee to green.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Aaron Rai (5-1)
Speaking of players trending in the right direction, three of Rai's four top-25s this season came over the last month. That includes a near-miss in Canada in which he finished one shot shy of the playoff. He's a quality ball striker who is 27th in SG: Tee-to-Green this season.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (15-2)
It's difficult to overlook Bezuidenhout at a course where putting will be key, as it's hard to name many players who are better on the greens. He's long overdue for a top-10 and does have six top-25s this season.
Ben Griffin (9-1)
Griffin has cooled off a bit since a hot start to his rookie season, but with that comes value, as his odds are a bit higher than they should be. Despite his struggles, he has gained strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He's capable of posting low scores -- he ranks 37th in birdie or better percentage -- so this looks like a good spot for him to get back on track.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Justin Thomas (+100) over Collin Morikawa
Thomas will be making his first trip to Detroit Golf Club, and considering he's 66th in the FedEx Cup Standings, every tournament is crucial for him. He seemed to benefit from easier conditions last week in Connecticut, finishing ninth and ranking second in SG: Approach. Morikawa has struggled since the Masters, failing to record a top-10 while making only 4-of-8 cuts.
Adam Schenk (-120) over Brendon Todd
Todd has failed to show much this year, with only one top-25 finish over his last 13 starts and three missed cuts over his last five appearances. He has shown little at Detroit Golf Club, with a missed cut and a T57. Schenk, on the other hand, recorded three top-10s over his last 10 starts and has made three of his four cuts in this event. He is above average when it comes to both distance and putting, and that should suit him well this week.
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