This article is part of our Golf Picks series.
The Open Championship Betting Preview
It's time for the final major of the year -- the 151st edition of The Open Championship. The event will be played at Royal Liverpool Golf Club in Hoylake, England for the 13th time, and the first since Rory McIlroy won in 2014.
Speaking of McIlroy, he's one of the main storylines this week, as he looks to go back-to-back after posting a birdie on the final two holes to win the Genesis Scottish Open by one shot. He's the second favorite at 8-1 odds, narrowly behind world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who is listed at 7-1.
Last year, Cameron Smith -- at 25-1 -- picked up the first major his career, taking home the Claret Jug with a one-stroke victory over Cameron Young at St Andrews.
All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 5:15 PM ET Tuesday.
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Course Characteristics
Royal Liverpool checks in as a par-71 at 7,383 yards, and the course should play fairly long with soft conditions expected and seven of the par-4s over 450 yards. Off the tee, players will need to be precise to avoid the fairway pot bunkers, which will leave mainly punch-outs and cost you nearly a stroke if you find them. There are also holes with internal out of bounds to punish wayward drives. Golfers will have the option to go with less than driver to avoid the risks but will wind up with longer approach shots as a result. The finishing stretch should create some drama -- the 17th hole is a short par-3 with runoffs and the closing hole is a par-5 at just over 600 yards. Expect to see a variety of scores. All in all, I'm looking for quality ball strikers -- those with a combination of length and accuracy off the tee -- and strong iron players.
Owning the Open Championship
These five players, with a minimum of eight rounds played, have the lowest scoring average at The Open Championship since 2017.
- Viktor Hovland: 68.5
- Jordan Spieth: 68.7
- Rory McIlroy: 69.3
- Tommy Fleetwood: 69.5
- Tony Finau: 69.7
This will be only the third Open Championship appearance for Hovland, but he's quickly proven to be a force at the year's closing major. After finishing T12 in his debut, he faded in the final pairing last year to ultimately finish tied for fourth. He bounced back from a disappointing result at the PGA Championship to win the Memorial two weeks later and looks close to picking up a major trophy in short order. Also faring well in this event is Finau, who has finished no worse than T28 over eight Open appearances, with a solo third in 2019. Something will have to give between that and his recent play, as he has failed to record a top-20 in six starts since winning the Mexico Open. At 60-1 odds, it's difficult to find a better long shot with a reasonable chance to pull off the win.
Dialed in from Distance
The following golfers, on a per-round basis, gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds.
- Scottie Scheffler: 3.03
- Rory McIlroy: 2.07
- Jon Rahm: 1.67
- Collin Morikawa: 1.56
- Patrick Cantlay: 1.51
If you've been fading Scheffler expecting his run of extraordinary play to come to an end, you've been left waiting for quite some time, as he extended his streak of top-5 finishes to seven at last week's Genesis Scottish Open. He has looked comfortable in his brief experience on links courses, finishing T8 and T21 in his two Open Championship appearances. The only player to appear on both lists is McIlroy, and among the majors, he seems to like the Open setups the best, notching six top-5 results. Coming off a win last week and a win the last time this event was held here, expectations are high as he tries to finally break his nine-year drought without a major. McIlroy's ball striking is in excellent form, as he ranked top-10 in both Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and Approach last week.
Open Championship Bets: Outright Picks
Jon Rahm (13-1)
Like many of the best players in the game, Rahm's game elevates on the biggest stages. He won two of his last nine majors and has finished top-10 at a 39 percent clip, including a T3 finish at the 2021 Open. His form hasn't been quite as good as we're used to, but he does have four wins this year and has rested up for this event. He also had a top-10 at the U.S. Open.
Brooks Koepka (18-1)
Can you ever go wrong taking Koepka at a major, especially when you consider he's won 13.5 percent of those he has appeared in? In his three majors this year he has gone T2, win and T17, and the last result felt like a disappointment. He played well earlier this month, notching a third-place finish in the LIV Golf event at Valderrama. Sign me up -- especially at odds like this.
Collin Morikawa (35-1)
Morikawa is coming off a playoff loss to Rickie Fowler at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in which he finished top-25 in every Strokes Gained category. An all-around game is always useful at Open Championship setups, so it's no surprise he's a former champion. He's too tempting to pass up at this price.
Open Championship Bets: Top-10 Wagers
Cameron Young (11-2)
Young seems to be an overlooked player this week despite finishing runner-up in his Open Championship debut a year ago. Despite his struggles this spring, he showed well in his last start, holding the 36-hole lead at the John Deere Classic before ultimately finishing T6.
Si Woo Kim (8-1)
Kim is coming off his best Open championship showing last year, one in which he finished T-15. He has sprung to life occasionally with top-5 finishes in both May and June. His strengths of driving accuracy (seventh) and approach (24th) should set him up for success at Royal Liverpool.
Lucas Herbert (12-1)
Herbert quietly recorded a pair of top-15s in majors last year -- one of which came at St Andrews -- so he's not overwhelmed by the added pressure. The Australian has experienced success on links courses, winning the Irish Open and finishing T4 at the Scottish Open in 2021.
Open Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups
Sam Burns (+100) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick said recently that he wasn't in his best form and that the Open is his weakest major. The numbers back that up, as it's the only major in which he has failed to record a top-10. Meanwhile, Burns has made the cut in both of his Open appearances, and he also posted a top-20 in three of his last five starts.
Corey Conners (-120) over Ryan Fox
Fox's results in the Open are mediocre, as he has made four of six cuts with only one finish better than T39. His form is reasonably good, as he posted a top-15 last week. However, Conners also closed with a 66 to notch a top-20 result. Conners is the much better golfer between the two and is only a slight favorite. His ball-striking prowess should come in handy here, and he finished T28 and T15 in his last two Open appearances.
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