This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
Week 7 of the NFL season will kick off with what is a compelling matchup on paper, as the Saints will play host to the Jaguars. The game total is 39.5 to 40 with the Saints as the narrow favorite, generally by one point. That leaves the Saints with an implied total of roughly 20.5 and the Jaguars at about 19.5. Given the questions surrounding Trevor Lawrence (knee), that line is a pretty significant vote of confidence for Jacksonville.
Quarterback
Lawrence ($9,600 DK, $16,000 FD) looks likely to play despite being questionable, so the question will be his effectiveness. Part of that equation is his effectiveness relative to cost. He's the most expensive player on FanDuel, and third-most expensive on DraftKings. Even setting aside the injury for a moment, he's been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective, with a high-water mark of only 20.7 DK points (17.7 on FD) this season. He's posted 15.36 to 16.48 points three other times. Add in the fact that the Saints have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks and the injury and Lawrence is not a play we should be looking to from a statistical perspective.
Briefly, if Lawrence is inactive, C.J. Beathard ($8,600 DK, $10,000 FD) is likely to get the call under center. His last start came Week 17, 2021, when he was a member of the 49ers, so we don't have recent track record. Jacksonville has decent skill-position players, and because he's still priced down on FD, he's worth considering. He's priced up at DK and with the tough matchup, I'll stay away.
Moving to the other side of the matchup, Derek Carr ($8,800 DK, $14,000) is the fourth-most expensive player on FD and fifth-most expensive on DK. He's been fairly productive when healthy. After Carr averaged 7.1 yards per attempt on 50 passes in Week 5, we also can be fairly confident regarding the health of his shoulder. He has only a 2.5 TD%, and while regression might not occur in this matchup, the Jaguars have allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Pace of play is likely to be slow and points could be at a premium, but Carr is easily the most attractive option at the position.
Running Back
Travis Etienne ($10,200 DK, $15,500 FD) is the second-most expensive player on each site. In what would have been difficult to predict this summer, but Etienne leads the league in rushing attempts in what amounts to 18.8 carries per game. He also has 24 targets (4.0/game), so volume isn't a concern in any area. The Saints have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs, though they've had a soft schedule. Derrick Henry was the toughest test, and he managed a modest 12.9 points on FD and 13.9 on DK. It's also worth noting that Etienne's efficiency has taken a hit, as he's averaging 75.2 rushing yards per game after posting 66.2 last season on six fewer carries per game. Despite the negatives, Etienne should definitely be in consideration.
Tank Bigsby ($2,200 DK, $7,000 FD) has earned no more than three carries in a game since Week 1. He has only three targets this season. There's no reason to play him.
The Saints' backfield is likely to be as simple. Since Alvin Kamara ($10,400 DK, $15,000 FD) returned in Week 4, he has a minimum of 24 touches in each game. He's produced in a narrow range and isn't the same explosive player he once was, but he remains heavily involved as a pass catcher (23 targets). That makes him particularly interesting on DK but certainly in play on FD. Due to that pass-catching prowess, he's the most expensive player on DK and third-most expensive on FD. Just looking at fantasy points allowed per game doesn't capture the quality of this matchup, as the Jaguars have allowed strong performances to the combination of Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss, as well as Bijan Robinson and Dameon Pierce in recent weeks. The matchup is no reason to stay away from Kamara, and he's among the best captain options.
Kendre Miller ($1,800 DK, $7,000 FD) has only seen significant playing time in garbage time since Alvin Kamara returned. He does have slightly more involvement in the passing game as compared to Bigsby, so for those throwing a dart, land on Miller. The wild card is the potential return of Jamaal Williams ($4,200 DK, $7,500 FD) from a hamstring injury. He was designated to return from injured reserve and is questionable after being limited in practice this week. It's difficult to see the Saints activating him on a short week, but even if they do, Williams likely will be limited to a breather-back role and shouldn't interfere with Kamara's role as a receiver.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
What this game might lack in potential high-end scoring potential, it should make up for with predictable usage. Since disappearing in Week 1, Christian Kirk ($8,000 DK, $11,00 FD) has had a consistent role and production in the Jacksonville offense. He's out-produced and out-targeted Calvin Ridley ($8,400 DK, $11,500 FD), despite Ridley's preseason hype. Ridley does have a greater aDOT and air yards share, so he makes sense to play on FD. Kirk is the superior option on DK. With Zay Jones (knee) out, Evan Engram ($5,800 DK, $8,500 FD) is the only remaining pass catcher with a significant role in the offense. He is a great value based on role, as he's run one more route than Ridley and has an equivalent targets per route run rate. Efficiency and aDOT have been the difference in production, but he comes at an appropriate discount. For those in large-field contests, using Engram as a captain on DK and then jamming in Etienne and Kamara is an interesting approach.
New Orleans is in a similar situation, Chris Olave ($9,000 DK, $12,000 FD) leads the team in targets, yards and receptions. However, his role has been hurt by the return of Alvin Kamara (and perhaps the shoulder injury to Carr), as he's managed 21 combined targets in his last three games with 112 yards. He did bounce back in Week 6, and the Jaguars aren't a particularly imposing matchup. Michael Thomas ($7,000 DK, $10,000 FD) has been incredibly consistent this season, but that isn't necessarily a good thing, as he's had 45 to 65 receiving yards in every game. He's also had six to nine targets. He's OK on the hopes of scoring a touchdown, but there is minimal upside. Rashid Shaheed ($5,000 DK, $9,500 FD) had two spike weeks but otherwise has been quiet. He's a boom/bust option that has the potential to be a must-play but is equally likely to post fewer than five points. Tight end has largely been a forgotten position in New Orleans, though Juwan Johnson (calf) is out and Taysom Hill ($6,200 DK, $8,000 FD) saw eight targets in Week 6. He could be a play on FD, but he's been priced fairly aggressively on DK.
Kicker
This game is lacking punt options due to the offenses being fairly heavily concentrated. That brings both kickers into play. Blake Grupe ($5,200 DK, $8,500 FD) failed to reach eight points only once this season, though he missed two field-goal attempts in Week 6 and also missed an additional opportunity in Week 3. His price is more interesting on DK. On FD, I'd play Engram at the same cost. Brandon McManus ($4,800 DK, $9,500 FD) is priced aggressively on FD and is a decent option on DK. He's had three double-digit scoring performances but has only 19 points combined across his other three games. The low game total makes his opportunity somewhat a concern.
Defense/Special Teams
This is likely to be a slow-paced game without a ton of scoring. While that makes defenses sound appealing on the surface, lack of volume decreases the unit's ability to make plays that rack up fantasy points. The Saints ($5,400 DK, $9,000 FD) are a better defense in metrics such as yards and points allowed, but the Jaguars ($3,800 DK, $9,000 FD) lead the league in takeaways. If I were to play a defense, it would be Jacksonville.
