Streaming Defenses: Week 1 Options

The Panthers still have some holes on defense, but their promising pass rush should cause problems for the Jets' Zach Wilson in his first NFL start.

September 7, 2021

By:

Jerry Donabedian

September 7, 2021

Streaming Defenses

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Team defense is the second-least-important lineup slot on most fantasy teams, sometimes ignored at lower stakes and often mismanaged even in big-money leagues. While D/ST won't be the determining factor between a win and a loss most weeks, it is an easy place to gain an edge over opponents, as no other position is so matchup-dependent.

An RB1 might drop to RB2 status in a tough matchup. Or a WR2 to WR4. But only at D/ST does a top-five asset become border unplayable due to the opponent, with top QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady proving consistently excellent at both putting up points and avoiding sacks/turnovers.

In most cases, a terrible defense that's facing the Lions or Texans will be a better fantasy play than an elite defense going up against an elite offense. And that's especially true in Green Bay, Tampa and KC, where the high-powered attack is led by a future Hall of Fame QB with a career INT rate below 2.0 percent.

Before we dive into Week 1 streaming recommendations, let's check out pro-football-reference's active leaderboards for career INT rate and career sack rate, keeping in mind that D/ST scoring in most leagues depends on takeaways and sacks more so than point prevention. Even if career averages don't capture a player's current team context, it's useful to have an idea ahead of time about which QBs have been more prone to the type of negative plays (Hello, Jameis) that lead to fantasy points for team defenses.

Active Leaderboard for INT Rate

Active Leaderboard for Sack Rate

2020 Sortable League Passing Stats

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Note: These recommendations are limited to team defenses that are rostered on less than 60 percent of teams on Yahoo or 45 percent on ESPN. Any references to fantasy points are based on Yahoo standard scoring, which doesn't include yards allowed.

Top Streaming Options for Week 1

1. Carolina Panthers vs. NYJ

29% Yahoo, 19% ESPN

Team implied total: 25

Opponent implied total: 20

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 13th (vs. NO), Week 3: 6th (at HOU)

The Panthers are in Year 2 of a rebuild and probably still need another offseason to get their defense right. Fortunately, mediocrity should get the job done for now, with Carolina hosting Zach Wilson and the Jets on Sunday. Wilson has a deep group of wideouts and a talented left side of the offensive line to work with, but he's otherwise surrounded by question marks, not to mention a new coaching staff.

Meanwhile, the Panthers have pass-rushing threats from three different spots, with edge rusher Brian Burns, DT Derrick Brown and LB Haason Reddick all capable of generating heat. And with first-round pick Jaycee Horn joining Donte Jackson at cornerback, Carolina has one of the most athletic CB duos in the league. That should be enough to get the job done against a soft early schedule that brings three straight favorable matchups out of the gate.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars at HOU

2% Yahoo, 1% ESPN

Team implied total: 23.75

Opponent implied total: 20.75

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 21st (vs. DEN), Week 3: 26th (vs. ARZ)

The Jacksonville defense is just 2 percent owned, despite drawing a Week 1 matchup with a team that has soft 0-17 buzz. Tyrod Taylor was good at avoiding turnovers back in his Buffalo days, but he also had a lot more help back then. The 32-year-old also has lost a step since his prime, and he may end up running for his life this year, playing behind a mediocre offensive line with Chris Conley or Nico Collins as his No. 2 receiver.

The Jaguars defense isn't likely to be good this year, but with six first-round picks and a big offseason addition in CB Shaquil Griffin, there's at least a shred of hope. That's more than we can say for the Houston offense without Deshaun Watson.

3. Minnesota Vikings at CIN

22% Yahoo, 27% ESPN

Team implied total: 25.5

Opponent implied total: 22.5

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 20th (at ARZ), Week 3: 16th (vs. SEA)

The Vikings defense stunk last season, in part because DE Danielle Hunter (neck surgery) and DT Michael Pierce (opt out) missed the entire year. Both are back and healthy, joined by offseason signing DT Dalvin Tomlinson and three veteran additions at cornerback (Patrick Peterson, Bashaud Breeland, Mackensie Alexander). Depth remains questionable apart from the interior line, but Minnesota's Week 1 starting lineup will be solid, especially if LB Anthony Barr (knee) can play. It's a tough assignment for Joe Burrow in his first game back from ACL surgery, playing behind an offensive line that looks only slightly better than last season.

4. Green Bay Packers at NO (in Jacksonville)

19% Yahoo, 21% ESPN

Team implied total: 27.25

Opponent implied total: 22.75

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 4th (vs. DET), Week 3: 19th (at SF)

The Packers probably wouldn't have made this list if the game were being played in the Superdome. Their defense isn't necessarily bad, but it's still soft up the middle, while the Saints return all five starters on an O-line that's annually among the league's best. On the other hand, Green Bay is now favored by 4.5 points, playing a neutral-site game against a QB with an extensive history of coughing up interceptions and fumbles at a high rate.

In fact, Winston's 3.4 percent career INT rate is the worst among qualified active QBs, and everyone else at 3.0 percent or higher was drafted in 2011 or earlier (the list is Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Henne, Blaine Gabbert, Josh McCown). Maybe Sean Payton fixed Winston's turnover problem, but maybe not.

5. New York Giants vs. DEN

5% Yahoo, 7% ESPN

Team implied total: 19.75

Opponent implied total: 22.25

Upcoming Ranks (Projected) — Week 2: 17th (at WAS), Week 3: 12th (vs. ATL)

Denver's defense is the better play from this game, but it also happens to be owned in most fantasy leagues. The Giants are a decent fallback, with their defense a pleasant surprise last season and now kicking off 2021 with a home game against Teddy Bridgewater. The problem, apart from incomplete trust in New York's defense, is that Bridgewater is surrounded by a ton of talent.... making him a 2.5-point road favorite to start the season.