This article is part of our NFL Picks series.
Over 50.5 in GB-TB, Packers -1.5, Chiefs -1.5 (+400)
This one is boosted from +350 and, unfortunately, has a max bet of $50.00. We need three legs to come in for this to hit but all of them are highly plausible. First of all, getting the total down to 50.5 is a deal considering the regular bet market has it at 52.0. Then you get the favorites covering altered lines that are smaller than what's on the board outside of this bet (GB -3.5; KC -3.0).
I like the favorites this weekend as it is, and asking them to cover 1.5 points respectively rather than a field goal really steers me in the direction of this wager. As for the 50.5 total in Green Bay, conditions luckily won't be a major factor, which will allow both of these offenses to function as normal. Tampa Bay and Green Bay both had impressive defensive performances last week, but both came against busted quarterbacks. Neither will have the luxury of facing a quarterback who can't push the ball 20 yards down the field this time. I expect both passing attacks to click (no, I'm not worried about the Antonio Brown absence) and carry the number over the adjusted total, with Green Bay coming out on top by two-or-more points.
Alternate Line: Kansas City -12.5 (+260)
This could be construed as disrespect to the Bills but it's more so that I think this is the week the Chiefs remind everyone that they're on another level than every other team in the league.
Much has been made about the Chiefs' "slump" down the stretch. There's some fair criticism to be made -- Kansas City hasn't won by double-digits since beating up on the Jets in Week 8. Toss in the fact that Patrick Mahomes might be working at less than 100 percent after suffering head and toe injuries in the Divisional Round win over Cleveland and we have a betting public that is strongly considering the Bills. According to the Action Network, 53 percent of the public bets on the spread (+3.5) are being placed on Buffalo. This feels like a time to buy back in on Kansas City.
There's generally not a ton to take away from a regular-season game as it pertains to a postseason rematch, but the way things unfolded in Orchard Park in Week 6 might have some insights into Sunday. The Bills dropped everyone into coverage and left themselves vulnerable to the run, and the Chiefs called their bluff. Kansas City ended up with 245 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC. If Buffalo tries that again, Kansas City would have no problem moving the ball on the ground regardless of Clyde Edwards-Helaire's status. And if Buffalo loads up against the run (unlikely), we know what this Kansas City passing attack can do.
So not only am I expecting the Kansas City offense to have the edge, but I'm also expecting the Chiefs' defense to have the upper hand as well. Buffalo's offense has struggled in the postseason; the Bills mustered 10 points of offense in the win over the Ravens and they were also outgained by Philip Rivers and the Colts in the Wild Card round. With no run game to speak of beyond Josh Allen, Kansas City can key-in on confusing the signal-caller and keep a lid on this Buffalo passing game.
If things fall the way I'm laying out here, Kansas City can cover that big alternate number.
Player Props
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 2.5 receptions (-102)
MVS inflicted some pain on us last week as he had a ball go off his hands in the end zone that would have clinched his anytime TD prop at over +300. Then the backbreaking long touchdown went to Green Bay's other tall, fast receiver, Allen Lazard. While that wasn't great for the MVS touchdown backers, there was a silver lining. Valdes-Scantling drew eight targets in that game, which tied for a season-high and marked his highest target count since Week 4 against Atlanta. Even if he doesn't draw as high of a target share this time around, Valdes-Scantling will still be involved enough to where the over 2.5 is well within reach.
Leonard Fournette OVER 67.5 rushing + receiving yards (-112)
Fournette's involvement in the Tampa Bay offense thus far in the postseason coupled with Green Bay's inability to slow down pass-catching running backs help put this prop in play. Fournette has seen 36 carries through two playoff games -- a strong carry floor -- and he's added at least four catches in each of those outings as well. The former Jag really doesn't have to be particularly efficient with his touches Sunday to hit the over as long as his role remains the same, which we have reason to believe will.
As for the Green Bay angle, the Packers allow the second-highest YPT to opposing running backs and have coughed up 774 receiving yards to opposing RBs through 17 games. Look for Fournette to push for 20 total touches with some involvement in the passing game as he cruises past the 67.5 figure. Playoff Lenny: it's a real thing, apparently.
Chris Godwin OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-110)
Antonio Brown's absence opens up some things in this Tampa Bay offense, and while that likely results in playing time increases for the likes of Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson, it could also bolster Godwin's targets. Godwin, who has gone over this number in exactly half of his games this season, works primarily in the slot. That's important here as he won't be drawing shadow coverage from shutdown corner Jaire Alexander in all likelihood. If Mike Evans is blanketed by Alexander and the Miller/Johnson combo isn't generating viable looks, we could see Godwin get a heavy target volume. 10+ targets for a player of Godwin's caliber should result in the over hitting comfortably.
Devin Singletary UNDER 62.5 rushing + receiving yards
I won't get fooled again here. Yes, Singletary has the monopoly on the backfield snaps for Buffalo with Zack Moss (ankle) still out, but that doesn't mean much when his percentage of snaps with a touch is just 31 percent. Put another way, Singletary is involved in the offense but he's not involved in the offense.
Buffalo is seemingly uninterested in getting the ground game going even in neutral situations, and in a script where the Bills may be in catch-up mode throughout, there may be fewer than double-digit carries for Singletary on Sunday. Singletary isn't enough of a difference-maker in the passing game to make up for his projected lack of rushing success Sunday, making the UNDER my lone consideration for him this week.
