DraftKings NFL: Week 9 Breakdown

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's Week 9 slate features 10 games and, as we've become accustomed to this season, a lot of low totals. Cowboys-Eagles is the marquee matchup with the highest total and will be a popular target for stacks as a result. Other than that, not much stands out. If you have a strong feeling that one of these games is going to shoot out, don't be afraid to stack it with four or five players. Week in and week out we see those who are willing to take the biggest risks reap the biggest rewards. Large-field GPPs are most often won by finding unique ways to differentiate from the pack. Try to embrace the variance and good luck.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the main slate of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with rostering some of the chalk.

• RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. WAS ($5,400)

There's a lot to like about Stevenson this week. First, his salary remains at its lowest point of the season. He's fell victim to mostly tough matchups this season and found himself in game scripts where the Patriots were either getting blown out or playing from behind. Sunday's matchup is ideal as New England is a home favorite against a Washington team that just traded its best two defensive lineman. The worry for Stevenson is that Ezekiel Elliott cuts into his workload. Stevenson outsnapped Elliott 31 to 22 last week and while that's concerning, it's possible there might be enough meat on the bone for both in this spot. There are safer options in the $6K range with Josh Jacobs ($6,900) and Bijan Robinson ($6,100) standing out. Both are cheaper than we're used to seeing and have favorable home matchups. Jacobs against the Giants and Robinson against a Vikings team that just lost Kirk Cousins. There isn't an obvious choice. 

• RB Demario Douglas vs. WAS ($4,000)

I just mentioned Washington traded its best two pass rushers, which surely will make life easier for Mac Jones on Sunday. The Patriots just lost Kendrick Bourne for the season, and it's clear JuJu Smith-Schuster isn't what he once was. DeVante Parker (concussion) is expected to be out, which leaves the talented rookie Douglas as Jones' main target. He was plenty involved before Bourne's injury, drawing 13 targets the last two games and now his role is even more secure. I realize that I've highlighted two Patriots as top value options and while that's concerning because they aren't a very good team, the matchup is as good as it gets and should provide plenty of opportunity. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Jalen Hurts vs. DAL ($8,000)

QB Sam Howell at NE ($5,800)

QB Daniel Jones at LV ($5,600)

QB Baker Mayfield at HOU ($5,200)

QB Aidan O'Connell vs. NYG ($4,500)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. CHI ($8,100)

RB Josh Jacobs vs. NYG ($6,900)

RB Tony Pollard at PHI ($6,800)

RB Jonathan Taylor at CAR ($6,400)

RB Bijan Robinson vs. MIN ($6,100)

RB Rachaad White at HOU ($5,600)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. WAS ($5,400)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. IND ($5,000)

RB Devin Singletary vs. TB ($4,300), if Dameon Pierce is out

WR A.J. Brown vs. DAL ($8,600)

WR Adam Thielen vs. IND ($7,500)

WR Chris Olave vs. CHI ($6,300)

WR Zay Flowers vs. SEA ($5,700)

WR Terry McLaurin at NE ($5,600)

WR Tank Dell vs. TB ($5,300)

WR Demario Douglas vs. WAS ($4,000)

TE David Njoku vs. ARI ($3,800)

TE Trey McBride at CLE ($3,700)

TE Logan Thomas at NE ($3,500)

TE Daniel Bellinger at LV ($2,500)

D/ST New England Patriots vs. WAS ($2,900)

D/ST Green Bay Packers vs. LAR ($2,800)

D/ST New York Giants at LV ($2,300)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (21.75) at Philadelphia Eagles (24.75)

COWBOYS

This is clearly the marquee matchup on the slate and it features the highest total, meaning it will be a popular target for stacks. The last time these teams met they combined for 141 snaps and 74 points. Dallas has thrown more than last year and ranks sixth in pass rate over expected. It's also coming off its best two games of the season. Dak Prescott ($6,500) looks confident again after shaking off some early season struggles. He torched the Rams for 304 yards and four TDs last week and has thrown 11 TDs in his last three games against the Eagles. If I'm rostering Prescott, it's surely to pair him with CeeDee Lamb ($8,200). It's been clear for awhile that Dallas needed to get Lamb more involved and he's responded with consecutive 100-yard games, including 12 catches for 158 yards and two scores last week. Brandin Cooks ($4,400) has a touchdown catch in back-to-back games but has drawn more than four targets just once in six games. Michael Gallup ($3,600) was relatively popular last week and disappointed. This would be a good time to go back to him as he's drawn at least five targets in four of his last five and doesn't need to do too much to pay off the cheap price. Jake Ferguson ($4,000) caught his second TD of the season last week and makes sense in double-stacks with the TE position weaker than usual. Tony Pollard ($6,800) continues to disappoint but this is the first time we've seen him priced less than $7K all season. There are some underlying stats that suggest he's not the same player as in previous years but the cheaper salary makes him a decent option nonetheless. 

EAGLES

The Eagles are an easy sell on a slate that doesn't offer much else. They feature that top QB and WR along with three other standout leverage options. Jalen Hurts ($8,000) has put up 25-plus fantasy points in four of his last five and is coming off 31 last week despite doing nothing on the ground. A.J. Brown ($8,600) is in the midst of a record steak as he's topped 125 receiving yards in six consecutive games. He's looked unstoppable and becomes even more appealing without Tyreek Hill and Ja'Marr Chase on the slate. DeVonta Smith ($7,100) will be considerably less popular but has the upside to be the highest-scoring WR. He caught seven for 99 yards and a TD last week and makes for good leverage off Brown. Dallas Goedert ($4,800) would offer similar leverage and we saw him flash a 28-point ceiling in Week 4 against the Rams. He's a good option in any type of Hurts stack. D'Andre Swift ($6,600) continues to impress and after a price increase, won't be popular this week. His receiving upside makes it acceptable to pair him with Hurts, but I'd prefer him as a runback in Cowboys stacks. 

• Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR Brown + TE Ferguson or WR Gallup
• Favorite Eagles Stack: QB Hurts + WR Brown/WR Smith + WR Lamb +/- TE Goedert 

Seattle Seahawks (19) at Baltimore Ravens (25)

SEAHAWKS

Seattle continues to play fast but its games have been underwhelming lately as it's struggled inside the red zone. However, the Seahawks rank top 5 in situation-neutral pace, points per snap and explosive play rate, which means their games have shootout potential if they find some efficiency. Both of Geno Smith's ($6,000) 300-yard passing games came when the Seahawks were underdogs and playing from behind. That's the likely scenario Sunday and it bodes well for their DFS prospects. DK Metcalf ($6,900) drew 24 targets the last two weeks but didn't topped 70 receiving yards in either game. Assuming he's mostly healthy, you'd figure it's only a matter of time before he explodes for a big game. Neither he nor Tyler Lockett ($6,200) will be popular and that makes both good GPP options. Same goes for Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,300), who's caught a TD in back-to-back games. He'd offer considerable leverage off the chalky Demario Douglas in the same price range. I don't have much interest in the running game, but Zach Charbonnet ($4,300) is certainly worth considering because he's cheap and logged more snaps than Kenneth Walker ($7,000) last week. 

RAVENS

Lamar Jackson ($8,200) is a viable option on any slate, but he's especially intriguing in this one. Consider that he and Jalen Hurts are the only QBs priced higher than $6,500 and that Hurts will be roughly twice as popular. That means Jackson offers leverage while having a clearer path than usual to be the highest scoring QB. The nice thing about stacking Baltimore is that it's pretty straightforward — pair Jackson with either Mark Andrews ($6,800) and/or Zay Flowers ($5,700) and move on. Andrews is the top TE on a slate that doesn't include Travis Kelce and had three TDs in the last two games. Flowers has one of the better point-per-dollar projections at WR and the speed to break long TDs. Odell Beckham ($3,800) and Rashod Bateman ($3,300) are cheap enough to be considered in large field GPPs but I wouldn't trust them in single entry/small field. 

• Favorite Seahawks Stack: QB Smith + WR Metcalf + WR Smith-Njigba + TE Andrews
• Favorite Ravens Stack: QB Jackson + WR Smith-Njigba + TE Andrews or WR Flowers

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Sam Howell + RB Rhamondre Stevenson + WR Terry McLaurin/WR Jahan Dotson +/- TE Logan Thomas

QB Derek Carr + RB Alvin Kamara + WR Chris Olave or WR Rashid Shaheed

QB Daniel Jones + RB Josh Jacobs + WR Wan'Dale Robinson/WR Darius Slayton +/- TE Daniel Bellinger

QB Gardner Minshew + WR Michael Pittman/WR Josh Downs + WR Adam Thielen/WR Jonathan Mingo

QB Bryce Young + RB Jonathan Taylor + WR Adam Thielen and/or WR Jonathan Mingo

QB Mac Jones + WR Terry McLaurin/WR Jahan Dotson + WR Demario Douglas +/- TE Mike Gesicki

QB Aidan O'Connell + RB Saquon Barkley + WR Davante Adams

High-Priced Heroes

• WR A.J. Brown vs. DAL ($8,600)

I mentioned that Brown eclipsed 125 receiving yards in six consecutive games, which is a crazy stat. He looks even better on this slate as we don't have the likes of Tyreek Hill, Ja'Marr Chase and Stefon Diggs to worry about. There's no corner in the league who can stop Brown, but the Cowboys remain without star cover-man Trevon Diggs, which only helps Brown's chances of having another big game. The argument for fading Brown is that he going to be relative chalky, maybe twice as popular as CeeDee Lamb ($8,200), who has a comparable ceiling. My point is that while Brown is my "favorite" option, I'll fade him in some lineups and looking for more leverage with someone like Lamb or even Brown's teammate DeVonta Smith ($7,100).

• RB Alvin Kamara vs. CHI ($8,100)

Kamara continues to put up gaudy numbers, scoring at least 17 fantasy points in all five of his games this season. He's amassed a whopping 39 catches on 44 targets in that span, which has been quite a boon for PPR scoring. The Saints have a very favorable matchup at home against the Tyson Bagent-led Bears. On lineups where I don't roster Kamara, it's likely because I have Saquon Barkley ($7,900) instead. Not only will Barkley be less popular than Kamara, but he might also the better matchup against a Raiders defense that's allowed RB1 performances in back-to-back weeks from Jahmyr Gibbs and D'Onta Foreman.

Honorable Mentions: WR CeeDee Lamb ($8,200); RB Saquon Barkley ($7,900)

Fading the Field

In some cases it makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Josh Jacobs vs. NYG ($6,900)

I've been trying to take some bigger stands recently, and I see that Jacobs has one of the best point-per-dollar projections on the slate and is expected to be one of the most popular RBs.  As of Friday morning, I see him projected for more than 30 percent ownership, which just seems too high in my opinion. The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and the Giants defensive line has actually been decent. I'd rather find the salary for Kamara/Barkley or save the salary and go with Bijan or Rhamondre. I'll mention that the argument for Jacobs is that his salary has dropped lower than $7K for the first time this season and a home matchup against the Giants seems favorable. Also notable is that in Aidan O'Connell's only previous start, Jacobs had eight catches for 81 yards. The potential is clearly there, but I'd rather fade the chalk. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• WR Terry McLaurin at NE ($5,600)

McLaurin continues to be priced too cheaply for a player of his ability who's drawn at least nine targets in four of his last five games. Washington throws a ton and its opponent, New England, have coughed up the third-most TDs to WRs. Curtis Samuel is also out, which should provide a couple of extra opportunities for McLaurin and Jahan Dotson ($5,000). Dotson is coming off his best game of the season after catching eight passes for 110 yards and a TD against the Eagles. He won't be as popular as McLaurin, and I think that makes him one of the better leverage options at the position. 

Honorable Mention: WR Jahan Dotson ($5,000)

The Bargain Bin

QB Sam Howell at NE ($5,800)

QB Derek Carr vs. CHI ($5,700)

QB Daniel Jones at LV ($5,600)

QB Baker Mayfield at HOU ($5,200)

QB Gardner Minshew at CAR ($5,200)

QB Bryce Young vs. IND ($5,100)

QB Mac Jones vs. WAS ($4,900)

QB Aidan O'Connell vs. NYG ($4,500)

RB Rachaad White at HOU ($5,600)

RB Kareem Hunt vs. ARI ($5,500)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson vs. WAS ($5,400)

RB Jerome Ford vs. ARI ($5,300)

RB Chuba Hubbard vs. IND ($5,000)

RB Devin Singletary vs. TB ($4,300), if Dameon Pierce is out

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at BAL ($4,300)

WR Demario Douglas vs. WAS ($4,000)

WR Elijah Moore vs. ARI ($3,900)

WR Michael Gallup at PHI ($3,600)

WR Van Jefferson vs. MIN ($3,600)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at LV ($3,500)

WR Jonathan Mingo vs. IND ($3,400)

WR Darius Slayton at LV ($3,200)

WR JuJu Smith-Schuster vs. WAS ($3,100)

WR Jalen Reagor vs. WAS ($3,000)

TE Cade Otton at HOU ($3,000)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. WAS ($2,600)

TE Daniel Bellinger at LV ($2,500)

Injuries to Monitor

• WR Drake London vs. MIN

London is out, which makes Kyle Pitts ($4,100) and Bijan Robinson ($6,100) a bit more appealing with Atlanta in a favorable spot at home against Minnesota. Taylor Heinicke is a better passer than Desmond Ridder, which means that maybe you can take a shot on someone like Van Jefferson ($3,600), who seems to have eclipsed Mack Hollins ($3,500) in the WR pecking order, for what it's worth. I still prefer other options in that price range, so I'd consider them more viable in the largest-field GPPs as leverage. 

• QB Matthew Stafford at GB

Stafford is likely to be a game-time decision as he's dealing with a thumb injury. If he plays, I'd have some interest in Cooper Kupp ($8,500) because almost no one is going to roster him and the Packers have struggled against slot guys. If he's out and Brett Rypien starts, I'll have interest in the Green Bay defense. 

Weather

Nothing to worry about as of Friday morning, but it's smart to check Sunday when forecasts are more accurate.