NFL Picks: 
Texans vs. 
Steelers Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Monday Night Football
Cap off the NFL Wild Card Weekend action with our NFL picks for Monday Night Football. The Houston Texans (12-5) travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (10-7) in an AFC Wild Card matchup on Monday Night. The Texans are coming in off a win against the Colts, 38-30, while the Steelers got into the playoffs by winning the AFC North with a home win against the Ravens, 26-24.
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Houston Texans vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
- Texans -3.0 (BetMGM +100) / Steelers +3.0 (Hard Rock -105)
- Texans ML (Bet365 -155) / Steelers ML (FanDuel +136)
- Total OVER 38.0 (Bet365 -110) / UNDER 38.5 (DraftKings -115)
- Texans total points: Over 20.5 (DraftKings -105) / Under 20.5 (DraftKings -125)
- Steelers total points: Over 17.5 (Caesars Sportsbook -108) / Under 17.5 (BetRivers -110)
- First-half spread: Texans -1.5 (BetRivers -102) / Steelers +2.5 (BetMGM -110)
- First-half total: Over 18.5 (Fanatics -115) / Under 19.5 (FanDuel -110)
- First-half team total:
- Texans Over/Under 10.5 (Caesars Sportsbook (+108/-137)
- Steelers Over/Under 8.5 (Caesars Sportsbook (-114/-117)
- Weather - 30 degrees, 8 mph wind
LINE MOVEMENT
The Texans opened as 3.0-point road favorites, and it moved to -3.5 on January 5th, so early money was coming in on Houston. It immediately went back to -3.0 as there was buyback on the Steelers. I do not expect this number to fall below a field goal tonight.
The total is the lowest on the board for the six games this weekend as it opened at 39.5 and has been bet down to as low as 38.0 before coming back to 38.5 as of Monday morning. 38 is a key number, but I could see this one getting to 37.5 or 37.0 by kickoff.
BETTING SPLITS
The majority of the bets are split 50/50, but the handle is 52 percent on the Steelers side, which is indicative of where the SHARP money is coming from.
The total has 65 percent of bets on the OVER, but the money is only 61 percent on the OVER. The moneyline is on the Texans at 67 percent of the bets, but only 52 percent of the money which is also another indication that sharp money is on the Steelers.
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Key Injuries
| Houston Texans | ||
| NAME | POS | STATUS |
| Ajani Carter | CB | Injured Reserve |
| Davis Mills | QB | Questionable |
| Jaylen Reed | S | Injured Reserve |
| Jawhar Jordan | RB | Out |
| Tank Dell | WR | Out |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | ||
| NAME | POS | STATUS |
| Isaiahh Loudermilk | DT | Injured Reserve |
| Darnell Washington | TE | Injured Reserve |
| Daniel Ekuale | DT | Injured Reserve |
You can follow all the NFL injury news here at RotoWire.
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Texans vs. Steelers Betting Picks
BETTING TRENDS
- Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games.
- The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Houston's last 18 games.
- Houston is 9-0 SU in its last 9 games.
- Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games against Pittsburgh.
- Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS and SU in its last 5 games.
- Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home.
- The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 15 games against an opponent in the AFC
- The Steelers have a 23-game Monday Night Football at home winning streak
NFL Team Rankings
| Offensive Rankings (2025 Final) | ||
| Houston Texans | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| Total Yardage | 18th (327.0 YPG) | 25th (305.6 YPG) |
| Points Scored | 13th (23.8 PPG) | 15th (23.4 PPG) |
| Rushing Yardage | 22nd (108.9 YPG) | 26th (103.3 YPG) |
| Passing Yardage | 14th (218.1 YPG) | 22nd (202.4 YPG) |
| Defensive Rankings (2025 Final) | ||
| Houston Texans | Pittsburgh Steelers | |
| Total Yardage Allowed | 1st (277.2 YPG) | 26th (356.9 YPG) |
| Points Allowed | 2nd (17.4 PPG) | 17th (22.8 PPG) |
| Rushing Yardage Allowed | 4th (93.7 YPG) | 13th (113.1 YPG) |
| Passing Yardage Allowed | 6th (183.5 YPG) | 29th (243.9 YPG) |
Texans vs. Steelers Best Bets
- Texans/Steelers UNDER 38.5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -115)
- Steelers UNDER 17.5 for 1 unit (BetRivers -110)
- Steelers +3.0 for 0.5 unit (Hard Rock -105)
- Total Field Goal Yards OVER 147.5 for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -115)
Texans vs. Steelers Predictions
This is a tough one to handicap because the Texans are on a 9 game winning streak with the best defense in the NFL. But the Steelers are at home and it is on Monday night where they have a 23-game winning streak. I think the Texans could win, but they would not cover the field goal. I am leaning towards the home dog to get the cover and the win.
