Ranger Suarez

Suarez remained a perfectly serviceable mid-rotation option for the Phillies last season, though he did see his ERA jump over half a run from 3.65 to 4.18. His ERA estimators generally showed a more modest change, as a jump in strikeout rate from 19.5 percent to 22.0 percent helped offset a drop in groundball rate from 55.4 percent to 48.5 percent. A roughly average number of strikeouts and walks alongside a healthy diet of grounders has been the formula throughout Suarez's career, and there's little reason to doubt that will continue in 2024, health permitting. Elbow issues delayed his 2023 debut until mid-May and limited him to 22 starts, but he remained on the mound the rest of the way outside of a brief bout of hamstring soreness in late August. Suarez capped the year with his second consecutive excellent postseason, producing a 1.93 ERA across four starts. He's now a big-game pitcher and a locked-in starter for a contender, but his fantasy value is held back by the fact that his groundball-heavy profile leads to modest strikeout totals and an elevated WHIP (1.42 last season).

In his first full season in the rotation, Suarez started 29 games as a 15-day visit to the IL for back spasms cost him three outings. Regression was expected, though the landing point was unclear due to the extreme nature of the 2021 breakout. He was unable to maintain last season's skills as his strikeout rate fell six points to 19.5% while his walk rate ticked up to 8.8%. After throwing a sinker, four-seamer and changeup with the occasional slider the previous season, Suarez added a cutter and curve. None were as effective as in 2021, though the new curve shows promise with a 17.7% swinging strike rate. With a regular offseason to tweak his arsenal, Suarez could recapture some of his swing-and-miss, while an extreme groundball rate limits homers, hence guarding ERA. Suarez as a starter is still a work in progress, but the pieces are there to be a mixed league asset, especially in a streaming capacity.

If MLB had a Most Improved Player Award, Suarez may well have won it last season. He was coming off a season lost almost entirely to COVID-19 and owned a career 4.66 ERA in 67.2 innings, most of which came in relief, and he didn't even crack the big-league roster until May. After some strong initial performances, he was temporarily elevated to the closer role and saved four games before the Phillies decided he was needed even more in the rotation. He closed the year with 12 starts and finished with a remarkable 1.36 ERA in 106 innings. Suarez isn't the second coming of Bob Gibson, so he didn't truly earn an ERA quite that low, but his peripherals indicate he should remain a well above-average pitcher going forward. He was better than average in both strikeout rate (25.6%) and walk rate (7.9%) while posting a very strong groundball rate (59.2%, third among pitchers who threw at least 100 innings). Due to the lockout, visa issues may prevent Suarez from being ready for Opening Day.

Suarez looked like a strong relief option in 2019, posting a 3.14 ERA in 48.2 innings, but his 2020 season was unfortunately almost a complete write-off. He battled COVID-19 during summer camp and wasn't deemed ready to join the big-league roster until the final day of August. Three poor outings later, he was sent right back to the team's alternate training site, and he didn't pitch again the rest of the way. He finished the year with an unsightly 20.25 ERA and 3.50 WHIP, though the sample size is far too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. We're probably best served looking back to 2019 when assessing Suarez's future. He posted a below-average 20.5 K% that season but made up for it with a 5.9 BB% and a 55.1% groundball rate. That's not a high-leverage reliever by any means, but it should be enough to keep him in the big leagues, either as a left-handed relief weapon or a swingman.

There weren't many pleasant surprises on the Phillies' pitching staff in 2019, but Suarez was one of them. Despite a 5.68 ERA in seven starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Suarez got the call to the big-league bullpen in early June and spent all but three days on the roster the rest of the way. In 48.2 innings at the highest level, he posted a strong 3.14 ERA. The lefty doesn't exactly have the profile of a pitcher one would expect to improve drastically out of the bullpen; he has unimpressive velocity (92.8 mph) but good control (5.9 BB%) and used two secondary pitches (a slider and a changeup) at least 20% of the time. The performance looks largely legitimate, however, backed up by a 3.89 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP. His strikeout rate remained modest at 20.5%, but Suarez is now one of the top lefties in the bullpen, and as such should earn double-digit holds for the first time.

Suarez reached the majors for the first time in 2018, making three starts and one relief appearance and finishing with a 5.40 ERA in 15 innings. He had considerably more success with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, posting a 2.74 ERA in nine starts, though his 15.1% strikeout rate and 7.3% walk rate at that level weren’t far off from his marks in the big leagues. As a soft-tossing lefty without a standout secondary pitch, his future is likely as a back-end starter, a specialist reliever or perhaps one of those new-fangled “bulk innings” types. He’s likely to spend much of the 2019 season in the minors unless the Phillies suffer a major injury crisis or his stuff takes an unexpected step forward. Such a step can’t be ruled out given his age, but fantasy owners can safely wait for him to show signs of a breakout before giving him much thought.