DraftKings NFL Week 12: Top Picks and Lineup Strategy

Sunday's Week 12 slate includes 11 games and will feature similarities from last week in the form of chalk. The three Cardinals, Jacoby Brissett, Michael Wilson and Trey McBride, were key staples in cash games and will be again with Marvin Harrison still out. At running back, Chase Brown will be popular again, especially if Joe Burrow is back. 

In this breakdown, I've highlighted the top options for cash games and included some of my favorite ideas for GPPs. As usual, leverage and correlation are paramount to winning large-field tournaments and important to prioritize when building lineups. For cash games, play the best chalk and, when in doubt, follow ownership, which you can get an idea of from our NFL DFS optimizer.

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EDT on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays.

• RB Chase Brown vs. NE ($6,200)

Brown was chalky last week and came through with 127 total yards while adding six catches. It's the receiving upside that has him projecting so well again this week. He caught eight passes two weeks ago and should be in line for similar volume on Sunday with Samaje Perine still out. Not to mention Ja'Marr Chase is also out and Joe Burrow is expected back. I'd expect all of that leads to Brown being the most popular RB on the board this week, though it's possible Emanuel Wilson ($5,300) takes that title if Josh Jacobs is ruled out. 

• WR Michael Wilson vs. JAX ($4,800)

Wilson exploded last week for a whopping 15 catches on 18 targets as the Cardinals were without No. 1 WR Marvin Harrison, who's been ruled out again. Jacoby Brissett is clearly an upgrade from Kyler Murray, and I'm expecting Wilson, who's always had big talent, to benefit again at home against Jacksonville. I think most of the field will feel similarly for cash games, where he seems like an easy click.

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Drake Maye at CIN ($6,900)

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QB Patrick Mahomes vs. IND ($6,800)

QB Jared Goff vs. NYG ($6,000)

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX ($5,300)

QB Trevor Lawrence @ ARI ($5,100)

RB Bijan Robinson at NO ($8,500)

RB Jahmyr Gibbs vs. NYG ($8,300)

RB Derrick Henry vs. NYJ ($7,600)

RB Ashton Jeanty vs. CLE ($6,300)

RB Chase Brown vs. NE ($6,200)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. ATL ($5,500)

RB Kenneth Walker at TEN ($5,400)

RB David Montgomery vs. NYG ($5,300)

RB Emanuel Wilson vs. MIN ($5,300)

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba at TEN ($9,000)

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. NYG ($8,000)

WR Rashee Rice vs. IND ($7,700)

WR A.J. Brown at DAL ($5,900)

WR Jameson Williams vs. NYG ($5,700)

WR DeVonta Smith at DAL ($5,600)

WR Wan'Dale Robinson at DET ($5,500)

WR Michael Wilson vs. JAX ($4,800)

TE Trey McBride vs. JAX ($6,800)

TE Kyle Pitts at NO ($4,300)

TE Hunter Henry at CIN ($3,900)

D/ST Seattle Seahawks at TEN ($4,000)

D/ST Las Vegas Raiders vs. CLE ($3,500)

D/ST Cleveland Browns at LV ($2,900)

D/ST New Orleans Saints vs. ATL ($2,500)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of most tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Indianapolis Colts (23.25) at Kansas City Chiefs (26.75)

Colts

The marquee game of the week sees Indianapolis off their bye traveling to Kansas City, where the Chiefs are losers of two straight and in danger of missing the playoffs. The Colts side of this matchup isn't going to be popular at all. Jonathan Taylor ($10,000) is priced all the way up, and it isn't a great spot for the running back as a road underdog against a stout front seven. Daniel Jones ($6,200) will go overlooked at QB considering there are cheaper options who look just as good, and the elite options aren't much more expensive. Alec Pierce ($5,000) is actually expected to garner the most ownership, coming off his two best games of the season because of a bump in target share. One of the best deep threats in the league, he's drawn 35 targets over the last four games. Michael Pittman ($6,000) has put up at least 20 DraftKings points in three of the last four, but most of the field will shy away from his $6K salary. Tyler Warren ($5,500) is coming off a career-best eight catches for 99 yards but will barely be rostered with McBride, Bowers and Kelce expected to suck up the ownership.

Chiefs

The Colts defense has given up big passing numbers all season, as they've struggled in the secondary, but should be better with the addition of Sauce Gardner. Patrick Mahomes ($6,800) has struggled in back-to-back games after a blistering start to the season. Nevertheless he projects among the top value at QB. As does Rashee Rice ($7,600) at WR, and he'll be the most popular of the Chiefs. The Colts have allowed the third-most fantasy points to TEs and Travis Kelce ($5,000) is coming off his best game of the season after nine catches on 13 targets against the Broncos. Xavier Worthy ($4,700) has suffered since Rice returned but still has viable ceiling potential now that he's priced down and can be rostered for leverage in larger-field GPPs. 

• Favorite Colts Stack 1: QB Jones + WR Pierce + TE Kelce
• Favorite Colts Stack 2: QB Jones + WR Rice + TE Warren
• Favorite Chiefs Stack 1: QB Mahomes + WR Pierce + TE Kelce
• Favorite Chiefs Stack 2: QB Mahomes + WR Rice + TE Warren

New York Giants (19.75) at Detroit Lions (30.25)

Giants

This matchup is the most appealing because of the Detroit side, but at least with New York, we should see them play uptempo and chase the game with a capable Jameis Winston ($4,600) under center. We got the wrong script last week against Green Bay as the Giants led most of the way and kept the ball on the ground in windy conditions. This week should be different inside the dome at Ford Field, where you'd expect the Lions to jump out to a lead. Wan'Dale Robinson ($5,500) is Winston's top option at WR, having drawn at least nine targets in four of the last five games. Darius Slayton ($4,500) is the big play threat while Theo Johnson ($4,100) is the favored red-zone target and can be considered at TE as he sees consistent volume. 

Lions

Since Dan Campbell took over play-calling duties two games ago, the Lions have ranked second and fourth in pace while passing at their two highest rates of the season. With a soft matchup against the Giants, it's no wonder that Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000) projects as the top WR on the board and likely to be the most popular. Jameson Williams ($5,700) is coming off his best two games of the season and has a touchdown in three straight, while Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300) will be the most popular of the expensive RBs. He's been incredible this season, and the Giants rank near the bottom of the league against RBs. Campbell has said that David Montgomery ($5,300) needs more touches and this could be just the spot. He has multiple-touchdown upside whenever the Lions have a 30+ implied point total. All of the Lions are good tournament options for various reasons, including Jared Goff ($6,000), who projects well and has ceiling potential but won't be overly popular. 

• Favorite Giants Stack: QB Winston + RB Montgomery and/or WR St. Brown + WR Robinson or TE Johnson
• Favorite Lions Stack: QB Goff + WR St Brown and/or WR Williams

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Drake Maye + RB Chase Brown + WR Stefon Diggs or TE Hunter Henry

QB Lamar Jackson + WR Zay Flowers or TE Mark Andrews

QB Jalen Hurts + WR A.J. Brown or WR DeVonta Smith + WR CeeDee Lamb or WR George Pickens

QB Jacoby Brissett + WR Michael Wilson and/or TE Trey McBride + WR Jakobi Meyers

QB Jacoby Brissett + RB Bhayshul Tuten + WR Michael Wilson and/or TE Trey McBride

QB Trevor Lawrence + WR Jakobi Meyers + TE Trey McBride or WR Michael Wilson

QB Tyler Shough + WR Chris Olave + TE Kyle Pitts or RB Bijan Robinson

High-Priced Heroes

• WR Amon-Ra St. Brown vs. NYG ($8,000)

St. Brown projects for the same number of fantasy points as Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($9,000) but for $1,000 less. The Lions have a prime matchup at home against the Giants and a 30+ implied point total. St. Brown's salary has dropped after a couple of down games, and he should be in for a slight bump in target share with Sam LaPorta out. He clearly ranks as the top value at WR and will be chalky. 

• TE Trey McBride vs. JAX ($6,800)

McBride's recent numbers are staggering: 11+ targets in four of five,  at least nine catches in three of four, at least one touchdown in five straight, back-to-back 30-point games. Marvin Harrison is still out and Jacoby Brissett has been more than serviceable, an upgrade from Kyler Murray. McBride will be a priority for me this week and brings double TE lineup constructions into play. 

Honorable Mentions: RB Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300); WR Rashee Rice ($7,700)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. In some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

• RB Bijan Robinson at NO ($8,500)

A word of caution in that I highlighted Robinson as a fade against Carolina last week and he responded with 33 DraftKings on 27 touches (McCaffrey still outscored him, for the record). It's not that this isn't a good spot against New Orleans; it very well might be with Atlanta missing Michael Penix and Drake London, so I'd expect them to lean on Robinson and the running game to help Kirk Cousins. I'd just rather spend for Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,300) in a better matchup, or save money and roster one of the many viable cheap RBs in order to afford WRs and Trey McBride. 

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable spots to significantly outperform their salary.)

• RB Emanuel Wilson vs. MIN ($5,300)

If Josh Jacobs is ruled out, Wilson will step into that same role as the Packers bell-cow running back. He's looked good in limited opportunities as a runner while showing the ability to catch passes out of the backfield. A $5,300 salary is too cheap for that role with Green Bay in a favorable spot at home against the struggling J.J. McCarthy. Wilson would essentially be a lock for cash-games and a strong option for tournaments. 

The Bargain Bin

QB Jacoby Brissett vs. JAX ($5,300)

QB Trevor Lawrence @ ARI ($5,100)

QB Jameis Winston at DET ($4,600)

QB Tyler Shough vs. ATL $4,400)

RB Alvin Kamara vs. ATL ($5,500)

RB Kenneth Walker at TEN ($5,400)

RB David Montgomery vs. NYG ($5,300)

RB Emanuel Wilson vs. MIN ($5,300)

RB Kareem Hunt vs. IND ($5,100)

RB Bhayshul Tuten at ARI ($4,600)

WR Alec Pierce at KC ($5,000)

WR Romeo Doubs vs. MIN ($4,900)

WR Michael Wilson vs. JAX ($4,800)

WR Darnell Mooney at NO ($4,800)

WR Jakobi Meyers at ARI ($4,700)

WR Xavier Worthy vs. IND ($4,700)

WR Christian Watson vs. MIN ($4,600)

WR Andrei Iosivas vs. NE ($4,100)

TE Kyle Pitts at NO ($4,300)

TE Hunter Henry at CIN ($3,900)

TE Mark Andrews vs. NYJ ($3,800)

TE Noah Fant vs. NE ($3,100)

TE Mike Gesicki vs. NE ($2,600)

Injuries to Monitor

• RB Josh Jacobs vs. MIN

The most important news of the week will be whether Jacobs plays or not as it relates to Emanuel Wilson ($5,300), who stands to be chalky if Jacobs is ruled out. 

• QB Joe Burrow vs. NE

Burrow's status impacts the viability of Higgins, Iosivas, Fant and Gesicki. If Joe Flacco starts, I'd have considerably less, if not zero interest in Bengals pass-catchers outside of Chase Brown. 

Weather

• After windy conditions affected a few games last week, there is surprisingly nothing to worry about on this late November Sunday.