This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.
Sunday's conference championship slate includes two great games. The Bengals-Chiefs matchup will be the more popular target as it features arguably the league's best two quarterbacks. You might find this article biased toward the Bengals. I bet them in every playoff game last season and I've done the same this season. I took them to win outright against the Bills last week and I completely faded Allen and Diggs on DraftKings. Joe Burrow is 3-0 against Mahomes and I think he makes it 4-0 on Sunday. Keep that in mind if it seems like I'm overlooking or underselling the Chiefs. The 49ers-Eagles matchup will be less popular as it features two teams with good defenses who both want to establish the run. There is still plenty of merit in targeting it for tournaments, however, especially if the majority of the field isn't going to. Rostership percentages aren't likely to reflect that both games have similar totals and spreads.
Looking at the slate as a whole, the salaries are soft across the board as multiple players are priced at season-low points for no apparent reason. I thought it would be best to break it down by position. I've highlighted the top value for cash games and added some ideas for tournaments. Speaking of GPP strategy on two-game slates, it's best to plan for specific game scripts, similar to how you would for single-game showdowns and then build lineups that fit them. Finding some leverage should be a priority, and it's often easier to find because of all the chalk and condensed rostership.
The Games
| Over/Under | Road Team | Road Implied Total | Home Team | Home Implied Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46.5 | San Francisco 49ers | 22 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24.5 |
| 48 | Cincinnati Bengals | 23.25 | Kansas City Chiefs | 24.75 |
Quarterback
- Jalen Hurts
vs. SF ($7,200)
The pricing on this slate is pretty soft, which means that the QB who scores the most raw fantasy points is likely to be optimal. Hurts has the best projection and will therefore be the most popular, if only slightly. It's his rushing upside that makes him most appealing. He's rushed for 14 TDs this season and has eight in his last eight games. That type of upside gives him the highest floor and ceiling at the position.
- Joe Burrow
at KC ($6,800)
Burrow has a similar point-per-dollar projection to Hurts and will be similarly popular. The decision between the two for cash-games and tournaments should come down to how you feel about each team and their specific matchup. Both the Eagles and Bengals have similar implied totals. The Eagles have the tougher matchup, in my opinion. I also think Burrow might be the best QB in the league at this point, and I still question whether Hurts has the passing chops to succeed in these spots. Hence, my decision is easy.
For GPPs, and especially if you like the Chiefs over the Bengals, this is a great spot to roster Patrick Mahomes ($7,600). He will be a relatively distant third in terms of rostership percentage, partly because people are worried about the ankle injury he suffered last week. He's already declared himself "ready to go," however, and it's not often that he's a leverage option on a two-game playoff slate. If you like Mahomes, don't hesitate to go with him.
I mentioned raw points being most important, which means no Brock Purdy ($5,300) for me. However, if you think he can put up 25-plus fantasy points in Philly, he'd be the ultimate leverage option from a game theory perspective as he'll be the least popular QB by a wide margin.
Running Back
- Christian McCaffrey
at PHI ($8,000)
McCaffrey is a lock for cash-games. The running back position is relatively weak and his salary remains at its lowest point of the season. I wouldn't worry too much about him missing a couple practices with a calf injury. What I'd worry about is a decreased workload and a tough matchup on the road in Philly. Elijah Mitchell ($4,900) has seen double-digit touches in back-to-back games. Those factors make McCaffrey plenty fade-able in GPPs, if that's what you're considering. The decision should come down to how you script the game and how you weigh him vesus Kelce and the expensive WRs.
- Joe Mixon at KC ($6,500)
Mixon is a lock for cash games too. He projects slightly better than McCaffrey in point-per-dollar terms, and those two are sure to be the most popular at the position. Mixon's salary also remains at a season-low point, despite the fact that he was the highest scoring RB last week after 105 yards and a TD on 20 carries. Of course, you can fade him in GPPs if you want. It would make sense in terms of leverage. Jerick McKinnon ($5,400) will be the third-most popular RB, followed by Isiah Pacheco ($5,300) and Miles Sanders ($5,200). They're all are viable options depending on how you script the games. So are Elijah Mitchell ($4,900), Kenneth Gainwell ($4,800) and Samaje Perine ($4,500), who will be even less popular. It might only take 10-15 fantasy points for one to be optimal. None are in great spots and each has a wide range of outcomes. If you have a lean on one, this is the slate to take a chance. Prioritizing WR and TE makes more sense to me.
Wide Receivers
- Ja'Marr Chase at KC ($7,600)
DraftKings is giving us a discount on Chase. You could argue he's $1,000 too cheap after ending the regular season priced at $8,400 against the Ravens. He has the best point-per-dollar projection of any player on the slate, regardless of position. He'll be the most popular WR by a considerable margin, and rightly so based on his floor, ceiling and how consistent he's been. I won't be making any lineups without him. Leverage could be had by rostering either Eagles WR. DeVonta Smith ($6,800) has been Hurts' favorite target recently and he'll probably be a bit less popular than A.J. Brown ($7,000).
- Deebo Samuel at PHI ($5,700)
Samuel is expected to be the second-most popular WR. He's just too cheap for the type of player he is. This is the lowest his salary has been all season and the 49ers continue to get him the ball in a variety ways. It's the cheapest we've seen Tee Higgins ($5,400) priced this season as well. He will be similar to Samuel in terms of popularity. Both of them seem like good value options and each has the upside to outscore the rest of the position.
Looking at the cheaper range, JuJu Smith-Schuster ($4,700) has drawn only 11 targets in his last four games. Brandon Aiyuk ($4,400) hasn't drawn more than five in any of his last three. Their respective salaries have dropped as a result. I prefer Aiyuk if deciding between the two, but I don't plan on having much exposure to either. I'd rather go even cheaper to either Tyler Boyd ($3,800) or Kadarius Toney ($3,700). Toney caught a season-high five passes last week and also has four rushing attempts in his last two games. We've never seen Boyd priced below $4K, and I want as much exposure to the Bengals passing attack as possible. Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($3,600) has seen his snap-share decrease of late but he caught a TD last week and is always in play to catch a long one as the Chiefs top deep threat.
Tight Ends
- Travis Kelce
vs. CIN ($7,800)
Kelce was the highest-scoring player on the slate last week after he caught 14 of 17 targets for 98 yards and two TDs. That's a massive amount of volume and I'd expect the bump in target share to continue throughout the playoffs. Mahomes' mobility likely will be at least somewhat limited and you'd expect that leads to a few more quick looks to Kelce than usual. I'll start most of my lineups with him and Chase.
George Kittle ($5,200) will be the least popular of the four starting TEs. That makes him appealing as a leverage option. He was the 49ers leading receiver last week with five catches for 95 yards and has scored seven TDs in his last six games.
Dallas Goedert ($4,100) is expected to be the second-most popular TE. His salary has dropped to its lowest point of the season for no discernible reason. He caught five passes for 58 yards and a TD last week and fell just short of scoring twice.
- Hayden Hurst at KC ($3,000)
Hurst is coming off five catches for 59 yards and a TD. It was his third consecutive game with at least four catches. He's just too cheap for a TE that plays nearly all the snaps and has Joe Burrow for a QB. I'll be rostering him and Kelce together in cash games and I think a double TE construction makes a lot of sense in GPPs as well considering how good all four options are.
Defense/Special Teams
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. SF ($2,800)
The Eagles will be the most popular defense. They're one of the best units in the league and have a home matchup against a rookie QB. That plus a cheap price is really all there is to it. The three other defenses are up against elite QBs. That makes the Eagles the obvious option for cash games but any of the four are viable in GPPs. The 49ers ($3,000) have merit because they'll be the least popular while the Chiefs ($2,500) and Bengals ($2,300) offer salary relief. The position in general is quite variable and often random. Don't overthink it.
